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Method based on optimal combined model for predicting state trend of primary air fan

A technology for model prediction and optimal combination, which is used in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-09-02
CHINA UNIV OF PETROLEUM (EAST CHINA)
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Aiming at the limitations of the single prediction model in the prediction of the state trend of the primary fan, the present invention develops a method for predicting the state trend of the primary fan based on the optimal combination model

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  • Method based on optimal combined model for predicting state trend of primary air fan
  • Method based on optimal combined model for predicting state trend of primary air fan
  • Method based on optimal combined model for predicting state trend of primary air fan

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Embodiment Construction

[0019] In order to better understand the present invention, the present invention will be described in more detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. In the following description, when detailed descriptions of existing prior art may obscure the subject matter of the present invention, such descriptions will be omitted here.

[0020] figure 1 It is a flow chart of a specific embodiment of the method for predicting the state trend of the primary fan based on the optimal combination model of the present invention. In this embodiment, the method for predicting the state trend of the primary fan based on the optimal combination model of the present invention includes the following steps:

[0021] The X-direction vibration data (sampling period 1min) of the primary fan bearing of a thermal power plant unit 1# is displayed as follows figure 2 As shown (the thermal power plant has 29 measuring points, all of which can be predicted by the c...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method based on an optimal combined model for predicting state trend of a primary air fan. Aiming at the limitation of a single prediction model, the invention provides an optimum gray least squares support vector machine prediction model, and adopts a gravitational search algorithm which introduces a concept of cross usage of a chaotic sequence and a genetic algorithm to optimize parameters of a least squares support vector machine and weight of the combined prediction model. The combined prediction model disclosed by the invention is applied to state trend prediction of the primary air fan of a thermal power plant, and the results show that the combined prediction model has higher prediction precision then that of a single model, and is of great significance to the state trend of the primary air fan in the thermal power plant.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the state trend of a primary fan, in particular to a method for predicting the state trend of a primary fan based on an optimal combination model. Background technique [0002] In engineering practice, there can be different prediction methods for the same prediction object, and their prediction accuracy is also different. Any forecasting model has independent information, and abandoning it means losing a valuable information resource. In recent years, combined forecasting methods have become an important research direction in the field of forecasting. The combined forecasting model is to properly combine each single model to make up for the limitations of a single model, which is conducive to synthesizing useful information provided by various methods and improving forecasting accuracy. . [0003] The fan equipment in a thermal power plant is a very important part. Whether it can run smoothly and safe...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 龚安高洪福吕倩
Owner CHINA UNIV OF PETROLEUM (EAST CHINA)