Method for fitting wind power fluctuation probability distribution
A wind power fluctuation and probability distribution technology, applied in the direction of single grid parallel feed arrangement, etc., can solve the problems of slow running time of simulation test, many parameters of mixed Gaussian model, poor fitting effect, etc. Good combination effect and fast program running time
Inactive Publication Date: 2018-01-09
XIAN UNIV OF POSTS & TELECOMM
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[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for fitting the probability distribution of wind power fluctuations. A new probability distribution function model is used to fit the measured power probability distribution data of wind farm groups to overcome the impact of the existing single distribution function on wind power. The problem of poor fitting effect of the fluctuation probability density distribution characteristics, and at the same time overcome the shortcomings of the existing mixed Gaussian model with many parameters and slow running time of simulation tests
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Embodiment 1
[0059] step 1:
[0060] First obtain the measured power probability distribution data of a certain wind farm group, such as figure 1 As shown, according to the measured data analysis of the trend of wind power fluctuations: the probability distribution curve of wind power fluctuations shows a downward trend as a whole, but it is not a monotonous decline, and has a distribution characteristic of sweeping tail;
[0061] Step 2:
[0062] Use the probability distribution function model provided by formula (1) to fit the probability distribution data of the measured power fluctuation of the wind farm group;
[0063] The specific process is that f(x) is a probability distribution function model, and the domain of f(x) is (0,∞):
[0064]
[0065] Among them, μ 1 ,μ 2 , γ and β are all constants, And α, β>0; μ 1 and μ 2 It is used to adjust the position of the function within the range of x, and α is used to adjust the amplitude of the function;
[0066] Obviously f(x)≥0, ...
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The invention provides a method for fitting wind power fluctuation probability distribution. The method includes the steps of first obtaining probability distribution data of measured power fluctuation of a certain wind power plant group; then utilizing a new probability distribution function model provided by the invention to fit the probability distribution data of the measured power fluctuationof the wind power plant group; then according to the probability distribution data of the measured power fluctuation of the wind power plant group which are obtained in the Step 1 and the new probability distribution function model provided by the invention, adopting a nonlinear least square method to obtain optimal values of parameters [mu]1, [mu]2, gamma and beta in the probability distributionfunction model; and finally, substituting the optimal values of [mu]1, [mu]2, gamma and beta into the probability distribution function model to obtain fitted probability distribution of wind power plant power fluctuation. The method for fitting wind power fluctuation probability distribution adopts the new probability distribution function model to fit the probability distribution data of the measured power of the wind power plant group, a fitting effect is good, and a fitting error is small. The probability distribution function model provided by the invention only has four undetermined parameters, and program running time is relatively short during a simulation test.
Description
1. Technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power network operation analysis, and in particular relates to a method for fitting the probability distribution of wind power fluctuations. 2. Background technology [0002] With the gradual increase of wind power grid-connected scale, people pay more and more attention to the impact of wind power fluctuation on the stable operation of power system. The analysis of wind power fluctuation characteristics has always been a hot research issue in this field. How to describe the probability density distribution characteristics of wind power fluctuations has always been a difficult point in the field of wind power grid operation analysis. A lot of research results have been obtained in the study of wind power fluctuation characteristics based on the probability density function method. Through the measured power data of a certain wind farm group, the fitting effect index model of the distribution funct...
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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/38
Inventor 王玲芝
Owner XIAN UNIV OF POSTS & TELECOMM