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Electric load predicting method with consideration of asymmetry characteristic of load fluctuation

A technology of power load and forecasting method, which is applied in the field of power load forecasting, and can solve problems such as asymmetry of power load fluctuations, inability to reflect the asymmetry characteristics of load time series fluctuations, loss, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2018-07-06
STATE GRID JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD MAINTENANCE BRANCH +2
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Problems solved by technology

Although the classical stochastic fluctuation model can describe the volatility of the load time series, it cannot reflect the fluctuation asymmetry of the load time series due to the symmetry of its equation structure
[0004] Some studies have shown that there is an asymmetry in the fluctuation of power load. The positive shock and negative shock of the same unit have different effects on the future power load fluctuation. Information to improve prediction accuracy

Method used

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  • Electric load predicting method with consideration of asymmetry characteristic of load fluctuation
  • Electric load predicting method with consideration of asymmetry characteristic of load fluctuation
  • Electric load predicting method with consideration of asymmetry characteristic of load fluctuation

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Embodiment Construction

[0054] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0055] The following takes daily load forecasting as an example to introduce the technical solution of the present invention, a power load forecasting method that takes into account the asymmetric characteristics of load fluctuations. The specific steps are as follows:

[0056] Step 1: Load time series F t The decomposition of:

[0057] Step 1.1: Apply the multiplicative model to model the electricity load time series.

[0058] f t =T*S*C*I t (1)

[0059] T,S,C,I t The order is the trend component, the seasonal component, the periodic component, and the irregular change component.

[0060] The trend component, based on the trend analysis of the load time series, is characterized by a linear model or an exponential model.

[0061] The linear model: Where a, b are linear model parameters.

[0062] The exponential model: where a and b are the parameters of th...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an electric load predicting method with consideration of asymmetry characteristic of load fluctuation. The method comprises: step one, carrying out decomposition of a load timesequence Ft; step two, carrying out load prediction based on an asymmetric SV model; and step three, carrying out prediction and prediction effect evaluation. According to the electric load predicting method with consideration of asymmetry characteristic of load fluctuation, an asymmetric random fluctuation model is constructed to describe asymmetry characteristics of load fluctuation, so that information contained by a secondary moment of a load time sequence is dug well. The accuracy of power load prediction is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an electric load forecasting method taking into account the asymmetric characteristics of load fluctuations, and belongs to the technical field of electric load forecasting. Background technique [0002] At present, power load forecasting is of great significance to the economic dispatch operation and reasonable planning of the power grid. With the advancement of my country's power system construction, a large number of new energy sources on the power supply side are continuously connected, a large number of new equipment on the grid side, especially power electronic equipment, are continuously put into operation, and user behavior on the demand side presents more complex patterns and characteristics. These factors power load time Sequences exhibit more complex volatility characteristics. [0003] The Stochastic Volatility (SV) model is an effective load forecasting model, and the classic SV model requires ε t Represents a ran...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 陈昊贾劲颂马兆兴张建忠周永荣
Owner STATE GRID JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD MAINTENANCE BRANCH