Unlock instant, AI-driven research and patent intelligence for your innovation.

A Power Load Forecasting Method Considering the Asymmetric Characteristics of Load Fluctuation

A technology of power load and forecasting method, which is applied in the field of power load forecasting, can solve the problems of asymmetrical power load fluctuation, inability to reflect the asymmetrical characteristics of load time series fluctuations, loss, etc., and achieve improved load forecasting effect and strong stability , Good effect of robustness

Active Publication Date: 2021-11-16
STATE GRID JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD MAINTENANCE BRANCH +2
View PDF4 Cites 0 Cited by
  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although the classical stochastic fluctuation model can describe the volatility of the load time series, it cannot reflect the fluctuation asymmetry of the load time series due to the symmetry of its equation structure
[0004] Some studies have shown that there is an asymmetry in the fluctuation of power load. The positive shock and negative shock of the same unit have different effects on the future power load fluctuation. Information to improve prediction accuracy

Method used

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
View more

Image

Smart Image Click on the blue labels to locate them in the text.
Viewing Examples
Smart Image
  • A Power Load Forecasting Method Considering the Asymmetric Characteristics of Load Fluctuation
  • A Power Load Forecasting Method Considering the Asymmetric Characteristics of Load Fluctuation
  • A Power Load Forecasting Method Considering the Asymmetric Characteristics of Load Fluctuation

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
Effect test

Embodiment Construction

[0054] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0055] The following takes daily load forecasting as an example to introduce the technical solution of the present invention, a power load forecasting method that takes into account the asymmetric characteristics of load fluctuations. The specific steps are as follows:

[0056] Step 1: Load time series F t The decomposition of:

[0057] Step 1.1: Apply the multiplicative model to model the electricity load time series.

[0058] f t =T*S*C*I t (1)

[0059] T,S,C,I t The order is the trend component, the seasonal component, the periodic component, and the irregular change component.

[0060] The trend component, based on the trend analysis of the load time series, is characterized by a linear model or an exponential model.

[0061] The linear model: Where a, b are linear model parameters.

[0062] The exponential model: where a and b are the parameters of th...

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

PUM

No PUM Login to View More

Abstract

The invention discloses a power load forecasting method considering the asymmetric characteristics of load fluctuations, step 1: load time series F t Decomposition; Step 2: load forecasting method based on asymmetric SV model; Step 3: forecasting and forecasting effect evaluation. The present invention provides a power load forecasting method that takes into account the asymmetric characteristics of load fluctuations. By constructing an asymmetric random fluctuation model to describe the asymmetric characteristics of load fluctuations, it is used to better explore the two factors hidden in the load time series. The step-moment information can improve the accuracy of power load forecasting.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an electric load forecasting method taking into account the asymmetric characteristics of load fluctuations, and belongs to the technical field of electric load forecasting. Background technique [0002] At present, power load forecasting is of great significance to the economic dispatch operation and reasonable planning of the power grid. With the advancement of my country's power system construction, a large number of new energy sources on the power supply side are continuously connected, a large number of new equipment on the grid side, especially power electronic equipment, are continuously put into operation, and user behavior on the demand side presents more complex patterns and characteristics. These factors power load time Sequences exhibit more complex volatility characteristics. [0003] The Stochastic Volatility (SV) model is an effective load forecasting model, and the classic SV model requires ε t Represents a ran...

Claims

the structure of the environmentally friendly knitted fabric provided by the present invention; figure 2 Flow chart of the yarn wrapping machine for environmentally friendly knitted fabrics and storage devices; image 3 Is the parameter map of the yarn covering machine
Login to View More

Application Information

Patent Timeline
no application Login to View More
Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 陈昊贾劲颂马兆兴张建忠周永荣
Owner STATE GRID JIANGSU ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD MAINTENANCE BRANCH