Stochastic volatility model-based path travel time reliability analysis
A travel time, random fluctuation technology, applied in the traffic control system of road vehicles, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problem of not fully reflecting the stable state of traffic operation in the travel time change of the road section, ignoring the details and changes of the travel time. Scope and other issues to achieve the effect of good travel planning guidance, effective management and control
Inactive Publication Date: 2019-02-05
BEIHANG UNIV
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Because the average travel time represents the concentration of samples, but ignores the details and range of change of travel time, it cannot fully reflect the change range of road segment travel time and the stable state of traffic operation.
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[0027] The present invention provides a method for analyzing the reliability of path travel time based on a random fluctuation model. The present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, as follows: figure 1 Shown, concrete steps of the present invention are as follows:
[0028] Step 1: Extract the data information of each route through the obtained data information of the floating car; calculate the travel time of each route at different time periods, and the matching road section length. The route travel time is calculated as:
[0029]
[0030] In the formula, t i (t) represents the route travel time of route i at time t; I i Indicates the set of road segments that make up route i, l j Indicates the length of section j, v j (t) represents the average traveling speed of the link j.
[0031] Step 2: Process outliers and missing values, and sort them in chronological order at 5-minute intervals to obtain the time series ...
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The invention discloses a stochastic volatility model-based travel time reliability analysis method. According to the method, the historical travel time information of target paths is utilized; aimingat the characteristics such as peak tail, cluster and the like of travel time volatility, stochastic volatility (SV) models in econometrics and extended forms thereof are introduced; model parametersare utilizes to evaluate the reliability of the travel time from different angles; through the models, not only the time-varying characteristic and continuity of the travel time volatility are evaluated, but distribution of system external information is also described; and a response mechanism is used for analyzing the impact, on the external information, of the travel time volatility, so as toevaluate the reliability of the path travel time. The method is capable of helping the urban traffic managers to alleviate the traffic congestion and scientifically plan road networks, and providing information reference for the route planning and route decision optimization of the travelers. The stochastic volatility model-based travel time reliability analysis method can be widely applied to thefield of transportation.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of reliability evaluation of route travel time, in particular to a method for analyzing the reliability of route travel time based on a random fluctuation model. Background technique [0002] The travel time reflects the travel cost from the origin to the destination. Due to the interaction between exogenous demand and supply factors and endogenous driver factors, the travel time of travelers on the route fluctuates randomly. The change of path travel time in the road network is time-varying, random and uncertain, and exhibits complex fluctuation characteristics. In a large number of existing studies, mathematical statistics methods are used to establish travel time prediction models. The main methods include: historical average model, linear regression model, time series model, Kalman filter model, Markov prediction model, maximum likelihood estimate models, etc. However, the transportation system is a random proce...
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IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/20G08G1/0112G08G1/0125G08G1/0137
Inventor 鹿应荣张璐璐丁川鲁光泉陈鹏王云鹏
Owner BEIHANG UNIV