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A Wind Speed ​​Forecasting Method Based on Time Series Sudden Error Correction

A technology of time series and error correction, applied in the field of wind speed prediction based on time series mutation error correction, can solve problems such as disrupting the normal operation of the power system and affecting the stability of the power grid, and achieve the goals of reducing operating costs, improving efficient utilization, and reducing impact Effect

Active Publication Date: 2022-04-29
HUBEI UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

Due to the volatility and intermittent nature of wind power, when large-scale wind power is connected to the grid, it may affect the stability of the grid, and even disrupt the normal operation of the power system

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  • A Wind Speed ​​Forecasting Method Based on Time Series Sudden Error Correction
  • A Wind Speed ​​Forecasting Method Based on Time Series Sudden Error Correction
  • A Wind Speed ​​Forecasting Method Based on Time Series Sudden Error Correction

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Embodiment Construction

[0033] Embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0034] This embodiment discloses an EMD-LMD-GWO-SVM wind speed prediction method based on time series mutation error correction, including prediction and error correction.

[0035] Firstly, the wind speed data is decomposed into a series of relatively stable components by using empirical mode decomposition and local mean value decomposition, and the components are predicted by GWO-SVM to obtain the prediction results of the components, and the original wind speed data is obtained after integrating the prediction results of all components Then, according to the errors existing in the prediction, the classification and analysis of error types are carried out, and a method based on time series mutation error correction is proposed to correct the wind speed prediction results. This method can significantly reduce the wind speed prediction. error.

[0036]...

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Abstract

The invention belongs to wind power generation technology, and specifically relates to a wind speed prediction method based on time series mutation error correction. First, the wind speed data is decomposed into a series of relatively stable components by using empirical mode decomposition and local mean value decomposition, and GWO‑SVM is used to analyze The components are predicted separately to obtain the prediction results of the components, and the prediction results of the original wind speed data are obtained after integrating the prediction results of all components; then, for the errors in the prediction, the error types are classified and analyzed, and the error correction is carried out on the wind speed prediction results , this method can significantly reduce the error of wind speed prediction, thereby providing high-precision wind power prediction, which is conducive to timely adjustment of power dispatching plans by the power grid, improving the efficient use of wind energy resources, reducing the operating cost of the power grid, and reducing the time when wind power is connected to the power grid. The impact on the power grid is of positive significance to the development of wind power generation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of wind power generation, and in particular relates to a wind speed prediction method based on time series mutation error correction. Background technique [0002] As the world attaches great importance to the development of green energy, wind energy, as a green and renewable energy, has been vigorously developed and utilized. Due to the volatility and intermittent nature of wind power, when large-scale wind power is connected to the grid, it may have an impact on the stability of the grid, and even disrupt the normal operation of the power system. Therefore, providing high-precision wind power forecasting will help the grid to adjust power dispatching plans in a timely manner, improve the efficient use of wind energy resources, reduce grid operating costs, and reduce the impact of wind power on the grid when connected to the grid. Positive significance. [0003] Wind speed forecasting is one of the main f...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N20/10G06N3/00
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N20/10G06N3/006
Inventor 黄文聪张隽怡谢博张宇常雨芳陈润段群龙李金榜吴锋
Owner HUBEI UNIV OF TECH