Influenza epidemic intensity grading early warning method

By integrating multi-source influenza surveillance data and constructing a tiered early warning model, the problems of single data and subjective standards in existing influenza early warning methods have been solved, achieving a more objective and comprehensive tiered early warning of influenza epidemic intensity and providing a reliable basis for influenza prevention and control.

CN120977610APending Publication Date: 2025-11-18遂宁市疾病预防控制中心
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202511046037.2
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2025-07-29
Publication Date
2025-11-18

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing influenza early warning methods rely on a single data source and are greatly influenced by subjective standards, resulting in insufficient objectivity and reliability of early warning results, making it difficult to effectively control influenza outbreaks.

Method used

By integrating multi-source influenza surveillance data, core indicators are screened through time series plot comparison and lag correlation analysis, a comprehensive influenza index is calculated, a graded early warning model is constructed, and the start of the epidemic period and graded early warning thresholds are automatically determined.

Benefits of technology

It enables a more objective and comprehensive tiered early warning system for influenza epidemic intensity, providing scientific support for prevention and control decisions and avoiding the influence of a single data source and subjective standards.

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Abstract

The invention discloses a grading early warning method for influenza epidemic intensity, and belongs to the field of infectious disease monitoring and early warning. The method comprises the following steps: collecting related historical monitoring data of influenza, calculating corresponding indexes, taking the influenza report morbidity as a target sequence, drawing a time sequence comparison diagram of the influenza report morbidity and other indexes according to the indexes, and screening indexes capable of being used for monitoring and early warning by performing time sequence diagram comparison with other indexes and constructing lagging correlation analysis; according to the screened indexes, adopting a comprehensive evaluation method to calculate an influenza comprehensive index; and constructing a grading early-warning model of a mobile epidemic interval method based on the influenza comprehensive index, and calculating a grading early-warning threshold value of the influenza epidemic intensity. According to the method, the limitation of a single data source and the influence of a subjective judgment standard on an early warning result are effectively avoided, the influenza epidemic situation can be reflected more objectively and comprehensively, and a reliable basis is provided for formulating a scientific prevention and control strategy.
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