A METHOD FOR PREDICTING UNFAVORABLE OUTCOME OF TREATMENT IN PATIENTS WITH RIFAMPICIN-RESISTANT PULMONARY TUBERCULOSIS

Abstract

The invention relates to medicine, specifically phthisiology, and can be used to predict unfavorable treatment outcomes in patients with MDR / RR-TB. The objective of the claimed invention is to develop a prognostic model for assessing the likelihood of an unfavorable treatment outcome in patients with MDR / RR-TB. The invention consists of the following: During drug therapy, bacteriological testing, and atomic force microscopy, predictors of an unfavorable treatment outcome are determined and calculated using the formula: where p is the probability of an unfavorable outcome, %, e is the base of the natural logarithm, z = -10.048 + 0.086 × x1 + 0.073 × x2, where z is a linear predictor, -10.048 is a model constant, 0.086 is the coefficient of the first variable, x1 is the coefficient of Mycobacterium tuberculosis cell wall rigidity, pN / μm, 0.073 is the coefficient of the second variable, x2 is the time to sputum culture conversion, days, and the following conclusions are made: at p less than 54.1%, a low probability of an unfavorable treatment outcome is predicted, at a p value greater than or equal to 54.1%, a high probability of an unfavorable treatment outcome is predicted.

Claims

A method for predicting an unfavorable treatment outcome in patients with rifampicin-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis, including drug therapy, bacteriological testing with the identification of predictors of an unfavorable treatment outcome, one of which is the time to sputum culture conversion, characterized in that after the bacteriological testing, atomic force microscopy is performed and the rigidity of the cell wall of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is used as an additional predictor with the determination of its coefficient, after which a calculation is made using the formula: where p is the probability of an unfavorable outcome, %, e is the base of the natural logarithm, z = -10.048 + 0.086 × x1 + 0.073 × x2, where z is a linear predictor, -10.048 is the model constant, 0.086 is the coefficient of the first variable, x1 - coefficient of rigidity of the cell wall of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, pN / μm, 0.073 is the coefficient of the second variable, x2 - time to sputum culture conversion, days, and draw the following conclusions: if p is less than 54.1%, a low probability of an unfavorable treatment outcome is predicted; if p is greater than or equal to 54.1%, a high probability of an unfavorable treatment outcome is predicted.

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