Operation management system

Abstract

20 26 20 52 21 01 J ul 2 02 6 A B S T R A C T 2 0 2 6 2 0 5 2 2 1 0 1 J u l 2 0 2 6 i n f o r m a t i o n .

Description

25       the hydrogen station information transmitted from the plurality of hydrogen stations 10, and stores the MCH production base information 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 transmitted from the MCH production base 30. In addition, the data server 102 transmits the information to the operation management device 101 through the network NW (refer to FIG. 1).

[0035] The operation management device 101 is a device that manages 5       delivery of MCH from the MCH production base 30 to the plurality of hydrogen stations 10, and manages operation of MCH in the entirety of the hydrogen supply chain 1. The operation management device 101 includes an information acquisition unit 121, a prediction unit 122, a delivery plan creation unit 123, an MCH production plan creation unit 10       124, and a correction unit 126.

[0036] The information acquisition unit 121 acquires hydrogen station information on a dehydrogenation status in the plurality of hydrogen stations 10. In addition, the information acquisition unit 121 acquires MCH production base information on an MCH production status in the 15       MCH production base 30. The information acquisition unit 121 acquires the hydrogen station information in the plurality of hydrogen stations 10 and the MCH production base information in the MCH production base 30 from the data server 102 through the network NW.

[0037] The prediction unit 122 predicts timing at which supply of MCH 20       to each of the hydrogen stations 10 becomes necessary on the basis of the hydrogen station information and the MCH production base information. In addition, the prediction unit 122 predicts timing at which toluene is recovered from the hydrogen station 10 on the basis of the hydrogen station information and the MCH production base information. The 25      prediction unit 122 may predict timing at which supply of MCH to the hydrogen station 10 becomes necessary and timing at which recovery of 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 toluene becomes necessary on the basis of a demand for hydrogen in the hydrogen station 10. In addition, the prediction unit 122 may predict timing at which supply of MCH to the hydrogen station 10 becomes necessary on the basis of a residual amount of MCH in the hydrogen 5       station 10. In addition, the prediction unit 122 may predict timing at which recovery of toluene from the hydrogen station 10 becomes necessary on the basis of a residual amount of toluene (the amount of toluene stored in a tank) in the hydrogen station 10. A detailed prediction method in the prediction unit 122 will be described later. 10

[0038] The delivery plan creation unit 123 creates a delivery plan for delivering MCH to the plurality of hydrogen stations 10 on the basis of the hydrogen station information and the MCH production base information. The delivery plan also includes a plan for recovering toluene from the plurality of hydrogen stations 10. The delivery plan 15       creation unit 123 creates the delivery plan on the basis of a prediction result in the prediction unit 122 which is based on the hydrogen station information and the MCH production base information. The delivery plan includes information such things as MCH is to be delivered to which hydrogen station 10 and at which timing, and toluene is to be recovered 20       from which hydrogen station 10 and at which timing. The delivery plan creation unit 123 creates the delivery plan in consideration of the number of the moving body TR to be used for delivery, a distance up to each of the hydrogen stations 10 (that is, time necessary for delivery), and the like. The delivery plan creation unit 123 transmits the created delivery plan to 25      the MCH production base 30 through the network NW. According to this, in the MCH production base 30, distribution of MCH by the moving 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 body TR is performed on the basis of the delivery plan.

[0039] The MCH production plan creation unit 124 creates an MCH production plan in the MCH production base 30. The MCH production plan creation unit 124 creates the MCH production plan on the basis of 5       the hydrogen station information, the MCH production base information, and the delivery plan. The MCH production plan creation unit 124 creates the MCH production plan by considering that a certain amount of MCH is to be delivered at which timing. The MCH production plan creation unit 124 transmits the created MCH production plan to the MCH 10       production base 30 through the network NW. According to this, in the MCH production base 30, production of MCH is performed on the basis of the MCH production plan.

[0040] The correction unit 126 corrects the delivery plan and the MCH production plan in consideration of an actual operation situation in the 15       plurality of hydrogen stations 10. For example, the correction unit 126 corrects the delivery plan and the MCH production plan in a case where an actual residual amount of MCH in the MCH tank 12 in an arbitrary hydrogen station 10, or an actual residual amount of toluene in the toluene tank 13 is different from prediction, or the like. The correction unit 126 20      transmits the delivery plan and the MCH production plan which are corrected to the MCH production base 30 through the network NW.

[0041] Next, a management method by the operation management system 100 according to this embodiment will be described with reference to FIG. 5. FIG. 5 is a flowchart illustrating processing 25       contents by the operation management device 101 of the operation management system 100. First, as an example of an operation 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 management method, a method of creating a delivery plan from hydrogen demand prediction will be described.

[0042] First, the information acquisition unit 121 of the operation management device 101 acquires the MCH production base information 5       of the MCH production base 30 and the hydrogen station information of the plurality of hydrogen stations 10 from the data server 102 (step S10). Next, the prediction unit 122 predicts timing at which supply of MCH to each of the hydrogen stations 10 becomes necessary and timing at which recovery of toluene from the hydrogen station 10 becomes necessary on 10       the basis of the hydrogen station information and the MCH production base information (step S20).

[0043] Specifically, the prediction unit 122 creates hydrogen demand prediction in each of the hydrogen stations 10 on the basis of a transition in the amount of hydrogen filled into a vehicle in the hydrogen station 10 15       for a predetermined time range. Note that, it is preferable that the predetermined time range is a duration for which a certain amount of information capable of creating the prediction is included. In addition, it is preferable that the predetermined time range is not excessively long so as to secure a real-time property. As the predetermined time range, 20       for example, the most recent one week may be set. In addition, as the predetermined time range, a range of several days to several weeks may be set. Note that, the prediction unit 122 may also consider, for example, a demand for hydrogen in the same season in the past as data that is used in the hydrogen demand prediction in a case where the demand for 25       hydrogen fluctuates in accordance with a season without limitation to the closest time range. 2026205221   01 Jul 2026

[0044] In addition, the prediction unit 122 obtains a dehydrogenation conversion rate and a hydrogen recovery rate from the amount of hydrogen produced, the amount of MCH that is supplied, and the amount of toluene that is recovered in each of the hydrogen stations 10, and 5       calculates a coefficient (factor) representing a relationship between the amount of MCH that is supplied and the amount of hydrogen that is produced. Note that, since the factor varies due to deterioration of a catalyst, or the like, the prediction unit 122 updates the factor each time in consideration of the variation. The prediction unit 122 creates 10      prediction data of the amount of MCH that is consumed and the amount of toluene that is recovered for one week on the basis of the hydrogen demand prediction in each of the hydrogen stations 10 and the factor. The prediction data for one week is prediction data capable of grasping timing at which supply of MCH is necessary, and timing at which 15       recovery of toluene is necessary for one week. Note that, with regard to the prediction data, another time range may be set without limitation to one week. In this case, the prediction unit 122 creates prediction data having a length corresponding to the time range.

[0045] The prediction unit 122 integrates the prediction data that is 20       created with respect to each of the hydrogen stations 10 in step S20 (step S30). For example, for one week, many hydrogen stations 10 may require supply of MCH in a certain day, or a few hydrogen stations 10 may require supply of MC in a certain day. Accordingly, the prediction unit 122 can create the prediction data capable of grasping timing at 25      which supply of MCH becomes necessary and timing at which recovery of toluene becomes necessary for one week by collectively considering a 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 situation of the plurality of hydrogen stations 10 within the hydrogen supply chain 1 by integrating the prediction data.

[0046] The delivery plan creation unit 123 creates the delivery plan for delivering MCH to the plurality of hydrogen stations 10 on the basis of 5       the prediction data integrated in step S30 (step S40). The delivery plan creation unit 123 creates an efficient delivery plan by collectively considering timing at which supply of MCH becomes necessary in each of the hydrogen stations 10 and position information of the hydrogen station 10. For example, with respect to a distant hydrogen station 10, 10      MCH cannot be delivered immediately, and thus the moving body TR is caused to depart ahead of timing at which MCH becomes deficient. In addition, when the moving body TR is frequently sent to the distant hydrogen station 10, the transportation cost increases. Therefore, the delivery plan is created so that the frequency of delivery is reduced as 15       much as possible. On the other hand, a near hydrogen station 10 can be supplied with MCH immediately even in a case where MCH becomes deficient. Accordingly, for example, MCH may be supplied to the near hydrogen station 10 in the middle of delivery to the distant hydrogen station 10, or the like. In addition, when MCH is supplied to the 20      hydrogen station 10 and thus a tank becomes empty, the moving body TR accommodates toluene in the empty tank and transports toluene to the MCH production base 30. The delivery plan creation unit 123 may create the delivery plan in consideration of recovery of toluene. For example, when the moving body TR delivers MCH to a predetermined 25       hydrogen station 10, toluene in the hydrogen station 10 may be recovered as is. In addition, the moving body TR may stop at another hydrogen 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 station 10 to recover toluene in the middle of going back after delivering MCH to a certain hydrogen station 10. As described above, recovery of toluene is performed efficiently.

[0047] The MCH production plan creation unit 124 creates the MCH 5      production plan in the MCH production base 30 (step S50). The MCH production plan creation unit 124 creates the MCH production plan on the basis of the prediction data integrated in step S30 and the delivery plan created in step S40. Next, the operation management device 101 transmits the delivery plan and the MCH production plan which are 10       created to the MCH production base 30, and executes operation based on the plans (step S60).

[0048] Note that, after executing operation, the operation management device 101 monitors each of the hydrogen stations 10 within the hydrogen supply chain 1, and corrects the delivery plan and the MCH production 15       plan by the correction unit 126 as necessary. For example, a threshold value may be set to a residual amount in the MCH tank 12 and the toluene tank 13 of the hydrogen station 10, and an alarm may be issued when reaching the threshold value. A margin may be provided for the threshold value. For example, when the residual amount of MCH inside 20      the MCH tank 12 in the hydrogen station 10 decreases up to 30%, and MCH needs to be replenished, the operation management device 101 sets the threshold value for the residual amount in the MCH tank 12 to 50%. In addition, when the residual amount of toluene inside the toluene tank 13 in the hydrogen station 10 increases up to 70%, and toluene needs to 25       be recovered, the operation management device 101 sets the threshold value for the residual amount in the toluene tank 13 to 50%. The 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 operation management device 101 receives an alarm from the hydrogen station 10, and when the degree of decrease of MCH or the degree of increase of toluene is faster in comparison to prediction, the operation management device 101 corrects the delivery plan and the MCH 5       production plan by the correction unit 126.

[0049] Next, description will be given of a method of creating the delivery plan on the basis of the residual amount in the MCH tank 12 and the toluene tank 13 as another example of the operation management method. Note that, description of the contents of the same concept as in 10       the method of creating the delivery plan from the above-described hydrogen demand prediction will be omitted.

[0050] First, in step S10, the information acquisition unit 121 of the operation management device 101 acquires residual amount data of the MCH tank 12 and the toluene tank 13 in each of the hydrogen stations 10 15       within the hydrogen supply chain 1 at all times through the data server 102. Note that, "residual amount data is acquired at all times" represents a state in which the residual amount data can be grasped substantially in real time from the viewpoint of operation of MCH. Not only in a state in which the residual amount data is acquired in time intervals such as 20       once every few seconds or once every several minutes but also in a state in which the residual amount data is acquired in time intervals such as once a day or one every few hours, the operation management device 101 acquires the residual amount data at time intervals allowing a time lag within a range having substantially no influence. Accordingly, it is 25       assumed that any of the states corresponds to "acquired at all times". Of course, the operation management device 101 may obtain the residual 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 amount data with the highest frequency within a range permitted by a communication speed of the network NW.

[0051] In step S20, the prediction unit 122 creates transition prediction of a residual amount in the MCH tank 12 and the toluene tank 13 in the 5       hydrogen station 10 on the basis of the residual amount data acquired in step S10 (for example, refer to a survey line RL1 in FIG. 6 and a survey line RL2 in FIG. 7). Here, the prediction unit 122 sets a threshold value for the residual amount in the MCH tank 12 and the toluene tank 13. For example, the prediction unit 122 sets the threshold value so that MCH 10       needs to be accepted before the residual amount in the MCH tank 12 reaches the threshold value (for example, 10%) or less. That is, the threshold value for the residual amount in the MCH tank 12 is set to 10%. In addition, the prediction unit 122 sets the threshold value so that toluene needs to be recovered before the residual amount in the toluene tank 13 15       reaches the threshold value (for example, 90%) or greater. That is, the threshold value for the residual amount in the toluene tank 13 is set to 90%. Then, the prediction unit 122 predicts a schedule in which the residual amount in the MCH tank 12 decreases until reaching the threshold value (10%), and a schedule in which the residual amount in 20       the toluene tank 13 increases until reaching the threshold value (90%) with respect to all of the hydrogen stations 10 within the hydrogen supply chain 1.

[0052] In step S30, the prediction unit 122 integrates the prediction data of all of the hydrogen stations 10. In step S30, the delivery plan creation 25       unit 123 creates the delivery plan for efficient delivery in consideration of position information of each of the hydrogen stations 10 on the basis 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 of the above-described integrated prediction data. In addition, in step S40, the MCH production plan creation unit 124 creates the MCH production plan on the basis of the integrated prediction data. Note that, the delivery plan creation unit 123 and the MCH production plan creation 5      unit 124 may create the delivery plan and the MCH production plan by using AI.

[0053] FIG. 6 is a graph illustrating a residual amount transition in the MCH tank 12 in an arbitrary hydrogen station 10. FIG. 7 is a graph illustrating a residual amount transition in the toluene tank 13 in an 10       arbitrary hydrogen station 10. Here, it is assumed that the capacity of any of the MCH tank 12 and the toluene tank 13 is 50 m3, and the moving body TR is a tank lorry having lorry capacity of 30 tons. In addition, it is assumed that the hydrogen station 10 uses approximately 18 m3 of MCH per day, produces approximately 16 m3 of toluene per day, and 15       operates at a load of 100%.

[0054] As illustrated in FIG. 6, the prediction unit 122 acquires the residual amount data in the MCH tank 12 on the first day. In this case, the prediction unit 122 grasps that the residual amount transitions in a transition from "0 days" to "one day" of the survey line RL1. The 20       prediction unit 122 sets a prediction line EL1 on the basis of the residual amount transition of the survey line RL1. According to this, the prediction unit 122 predicts a residual amount transition after "one day". The prediction unit 122 recognizes a date when the prediction line EL1 reaches a tank lower limit line DL (10%) as "acceptance date". Here, 25       the "acceptance date" is set between "two days" and "three days". Accordingly, the delivery plan creation unit 123 creates the delivery plan 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 so that the MCH tank 12 is replenished with MCH at any point of time between "two days" and "three days". According to this, the residual amount in the MCH tank 12 becomes "100%" at "three days". Thereafter, the operation management device 101 repeats the same 5       process. According to this, as indicated by the survey line RL1, the transition of the residual amount in the MCH tank 12 is repeated so that the residual amount is recovered to 100% before reaching the tank lower limit line DL.

[0055] As illustrated in FIG. 7, the prediction unit 122 acquires the 10       residual amount data in the toluene tank 13 on the first day. In this case, the prediction unit 122 grasps that the residual amount transitions in a transition from "0 days" to "one day" of the survey line RL2. The prediction unit 122 sets a prediction line EL2 on the basis of the residual amount transition of the survey line RL2. According to this, the 15       prediction unit 122 predicts a residual amount transition after "one day". The prediction unit 122 recognizes a date when the prediction line EL2 reaches a tank upper limit line UL (90%) as "recovery date". Here, the "recovery date" is set between "two days" and "three days". Accordingly, the delivery plan creation unit 123 creates the delivery plan 20       so that toluene is recovered from the toluene tank 13 at any point of time between "two days" and "three days". According to this, the residual amount in the toluene tank 13 becomes "0%" at three days. Thereafter, the operation management device 101 repeats the same process. According to this, as indicated by the survey line RL2, the transition of 25       the residual amount in the toluene tank 13 is repeated so that the residual amount is recovered to 0% before reaching the tank upper limit line UL. 2026205221   01 Jul 2026

[0056] Next, an operation and an effect of the operation management system 100 according to this embodiment will be described.

[0057] In the operation management system 100, the information acquisition unit 121 acquires the hydrogen station information on the 5       dehydrogenation status in the plurality of hydrogen stations 10. Since the hydrogen station information is information capable of grasping that each of the hydrogen stations 10 is in which dehydrogenation status, the hydrogen station information is information capable of grasping that MCH should be delivered to which hydrogen station 10 at which timing. 10       The delivery plan creation unit 123 creates the delivery plan for delivering MCH to the plurality of hydrogen stations 10 on the basis of at least the hydrogen station information. Accordingly, the delivery plan creation unit 123 can create an appropriate delivery plan after collectively determining the dehydrogenation status of each of the 15       hydrogen stations 10. As described above, it is possible to efficiently deliver MCH from the MCH production base 30 to the plurality of hydrogen stations 10.

[0058] The information acquisition unit 121 may acquire the MCH production base information on an MCH production status in the MCH 20       production base 30. The delivery plan creation unit 123 may create the delivery plan on the basis of the hydrogen station information and the MCH production base information. In this case, the delivery plan creation unit 123 can create the delivery plan after also considering the MCH production status in the MCH production base 30. For example, 25      when a plurality of the moving bodies TR simultaneously perform shipment, production in the MCH production base 30 may be delayed. 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 In this case, the delivery plan creation unit 123 can create the delivery plan such as shipment by the moving bodies TR with time intervals.

[0059] The hydrogen station information may include raw material information on the amount of MCH that is used in the hydrogen stations 5       10, and dehydrogenation product information on the amount of toluene generated in accordance with a dehydrogenation reaction. In this case, the delivery plan creation unit 123 can create the delivery plan after also considering the amount of toluene generated in each of the hydrogen stations 10. 10

[0060] The operation management system 100 further includes the prediction unit 122 that predicts timing at which supply of MCH to the hydrogen station 10 becomes necessary on the basis of at least the hydrogen station information. The delivery plan creation unit 123 may create the delivery plan on the basis of a prediction result obtained by the 15       prediction unit 122. In this case, the delivery plan creation unit 123 can create the delivery plan in advance before the timing at which supply of MCH becomes actually necessary in the hydrogen station 10. For example, in the example illustrated in FIG. 6, it is assumed that the moving body TR initiates shipment at timing at which the survey line 20       RL1 approaches the tank lower limit line DL. In this case, in a distant hydrogen station 10, or the like, replenishment of MCH to the MCH tank 12 may be excessively delayed due to a time lag up to arrival, and the survey line RL1 may be lowered than the tank lower limit line DL. In contrast, when the prediction unit 122 performs prediction by using the 25      prediction line EL1, replenishment of MCH can be performed before the survey line RL1 is lowered than the tank lower limit line DL. 2026205221   01 Jul 2026

[0061] The prediction unit 122 may predict timing at which supply of MCH to the hydrogen station 10 becomes necessary on the basis of a demand for hydrogen in the hydrogen station 10. In this case, the prediction unit 122 can perform long-term (for example, one week) 5       prediction on the basis of a transition in a demand for hydrogen, or the like.

[0062] The prediction unit 122 may predict timing at which supply of MCH to the hydrogen station 10 becomes necessary on the basis of a residual amount of MCH in the hydrogen station 10. In this case, the 10       prediction unit 122 can perform prediction based on an actual situation on the basis of an actual residual amount of MCH in the hydrogen station.

[0063] The present disclosure is not limited to the above-described embodiment.

[0064] For example, in the above-described embodiment, the operation 15       management system 100 is provided with the prediction unit 122, but the prediction unit 122 may be omitted. In this case, the delivery plan creation unit 123 may create the delivery plan on the basis of only survey data. For example, the operation management system 100 sets a threshold value for the MCH tank 12 and the toluene tank 13 in each of 20       the hydrogen stations 10. The delivery plan creation unit 123 grasps a hydrogen station 10 for which an alarm is issued on the basis of the threshold value. In addition, the delivery plan creation unit 123 creates the delivery plan by considering position information of the hydrogen station 10. 25

[0065] In addition, in the above-described embodiment, the operation management system 100 creates the delivery plan by considering both the 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 MCH residual amount data and the toluene residual amount data, but only the MCH residual amount data may be considered. For example, the operation management system 100 may create the delivery plan with efficiency with respect to delivery of MCH, and recovery of toluene may 5       be performed in accordance with a constant rule.

[0066] In addition, the delivery plan creation unit 123 of the operation management system 100 creates the delivery plan by also considering the MCH production base information in addition to the hydrogen station information, but the MCH production base information may not be 10       considered. For example, in a case where the amount of production in the MCH production base 30 is large in comparison to the number of the moving body TR that can be used for delivery to a certain area, and thus the residual amount of MCH in the MCH production base substantially may not be considered, the delivery plan creation unit 123 may not 15       consider the MCH production base information.

[0067] Throughout this specification and the claims which follow, unless the context requires otherwise, the word "comprise", and variations such as "comprises" and "comprising", will be understood to imply the inclusion of a stated integer or step or group of integers or steps but not 20       the exclusion of any other integer or step or group of integers or steps.

[0068] The reference in this specification to any prior publication (or information derived from it), or to any matter which is known, is not, and should not be taken as an acknowledgment or admission or any form of suggestion that that prior publication (or information derived from it) or 25      known matter forms part of the common general knowledge in the field of endeavour to which this specification relates. 2026205221   01 Jul 2026 Reference Signs List

[0069] 10: hydrogen station (dehydrogenation base), 30: MCH production base (raw material production base), 100: operation management system, 121: information acquisition unit, 122: prediction 5        unit, 123: delivery plan creation unit.

Claims

1. An operation management system configured to manage deliveryof a raw material from a raw material production base where the raw5       material including a hydride is produced to a plurality of dehydrogenationbases where the raw material is subjected to a dehydrogenation reaction to obtain a hydrogen-containing gas, the operation management system comprising:an information acquisition unit configured to acquire first10       information on a dehydrogenation status in the plurality ofdehydrogenation bases; anda delivery plan creation unit configured to create a delivery plan for delivering the raw material to the plurality of dehydrogenation bases at least on the basis of the first information.15       2.     The operation management system according to claim 1,wherein the information acquisition unit acquires secondinformation on a production status of the raw material in the raw material production base, andthe delivery plan creation unit creates the delivery plan on the20       basis of the first information and the second information.

3. The operation management system according to claim 1 or 2,wherein the first information includes raw material informationon the amount of the raw material used in the dehydrogenation bases, and dehydrogenation product information on the amount of a25       dehydrogenation product generated in accordance with thedehydrogenation reaction.2026205221   01 Jul 20264.     The operation management system according to any one of claims1 to 3, further comprising:a prediction unit configured to predict timing at which supply of the raw material to the dehydrogenation bases becomes necessary at least5       on the basis of the first information,wherein the delivery plan creation unit creates the delivery plan on the basis of a prediction result obtained by the prediction unit.

5. The operation management system according to claim 4,wherein the prediction unit predicts the timing at which supply of10       the raw material to the dehydrogenation bases becomes necessary on thebasis of a demand for hydrogen in the dehydrogenation bases.

6. The operation management system according to claim 4,wherein the prediction unit predicts the timing at which supply ofthe raw material to the dehydrogenation bases becomes necessary on the15       basis of a residual amount of the raw material in the dehydrogenationbases.

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