METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE SERVICE LIFE OF A COKE OVEN BATTERY

Description

1 / 19 METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE SERVICE LIFE OF A COKE OVEN BATTERY Technical Field

[001] The present invention relates to a method for predicting the service life of an aged coke oven battery. Technical Background

[002] In recent years, with the aging of coke ovens, some of the refractories that make up the coke ovens have worn and deformed, and the joints between the refractories have widened. This can cause part of the oven wall of a carbonization chamber, which was flat after the completion of the coke oven construction, to bulge inward. In the operation of the coke oven, an increase in the amount of bulging of the carbonization chamber oven wall causes a forward obstruction, which hinders the discharge of coke. If a forward obstruction occurs, the amount of coke produced per unit of time decreases. If the amount of bulging of part of the oven wall further increases, a piston head of a forward piston may come into contact with the part, and this will hinder the forward piston from discharging the coke from the carbonization chamber. The contact can cause the collapse of the oven wall refractories.

[003] To avoid this, the furnace wall refractories of the carbonization chamber must be re-stacked and repaired before the amount of bulging in the carbonization chamber becomes too large. To repair the furnace wall refractories of the carbonization chamber, it is necessary to know the location of the inner wall to be repaired and when the repair should be done. Patent Literature 1 discloses a method for diagnosing coke oven walls in which a three-dimensional laser-based shape measuring device is installed outside the carbonization chamber and the wall shape of Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, page 38 / 67 2 / 19 The furnace shape of the carbonization chamber is measured by irradiating the furnace wall inside the carbonization chamber with a laser. Patent Literature 2 discloses a method that involves measuring the furnace wall shape in the same way as above to identify a bulging portion of the inner wall of the carbonization chamber and predicting when repair of the bulging portion will be required, i.e., the usable period of the carbonization chamber. List of Citations Patent Literature PTL 1: Publication of Unexamined Japanese Patent Application No. 201382909 PTL 2: Publication of Unexamined Japanese Patent Application No. 201660867 Summary of the Invention Technical Problem

[004] Because a coke oven includes many carbonization chambers and combustion chambers arranged alternately, repairing the oven wall refractories for each individual carbonization chamber is inefficient. Therefore, when the oven wall refractories of the carbonization chambers need to be repaired, it is preferable to collectively repair the oven wall refractories of the carbonization chambers in coke oven battery units. In contrast, the oven wall diagnostic method and the service life prediction method disclosed in Patent Literatures 1 and 2 are directed to individual carbonization chambers in the coke oven, and therefore the service life of an aged coke oven battery cannot be predicted using only these methods. The present invention was made in view of such a problem in the related prior art. The objective of the present invention is to provide a service life prediction method. Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, page 39 / 67 3 / 19 of a coke oven battery that can predict the service life of a coke oven battery. Solution to the Problem

[005] The present invention which can solve the problem described above is summarized below: [1] A coke oven battery life prediction method to predict a coke oven battery life includes measuring a furnace wall shape of each carbonization chamber that constitutes the coke oven battery with a shape measuring device to identify an inward bulge from an initial position based on the hot-state dimensions after completion of coke oven construction, measuring the furnace wall shape for the bulge multiple times on different dates and measurement times to determine a regression equation that represents a correlation between time and amount of bulge,Calculate a date and time at which the amount of bulging calculated using the regression equation reaches a predetermined threshold to predict a usable period of the carbonization chamber and predict a coke oven battery life in the coke oven based on the predicted usable period of the carbonization chamber; [2] In the coke oven battery service life prediction method, according to [1], a correspondence between an operational period of the coke oven and a percentage of unusable carbonization chambers in the coke oven battery is determined using the predicted usable period of the carbonization chamber, and the service life of the coke oven battery is predicted using the correspondence; [3] In the coke oven battery service life prediction method according to [1], a correspondence between an operating period of the oven Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, page 40 / 67 4 / 19 of coke and the coke production of the coke oven battery is determined using the predicted usable period of the carbonization chamber, and the service life of the coke oven battery is predicted using the matching; [4] In the coke oven battery life prediction method according to any of [1] to [3], the threshold is determined based on a gap sd between the plunger head of a forward plunger and the initial position of the protrusion based on the hot state dimensions after construction completion. Advantageous Effects of the Invention [00 6] The present invention can predict the service life of a coke oven battery by predicting the usable period of each carbonization chamber that constitutes the coke oven battery. This makes it possible to develop a repair plan for carbonization chambers in oven battery units and to repair the carbonization chambers efficiently. Brief Description of the Drawings

[007] [Fig. 1] Fig. 1 is a perspective view illustrating an example of a coke oven; [Fig. 2] Fig. 2 is a horizontal cross-sectional view illustrating a carbonization chamber of the coke oven; [Fig. 3] Fig. 3 is a horizontal cross-sectional view illustrating the carbonization chamber of the coke oven; [Fig. 4] Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of furnace wall shape data for the carbonization chamber; [Fig. 5] Fig. 5 is a graph illustrating how the amount of bulging w changes over time; [Fig. 6] Fig. 6 is a horizontal cross-sectional view illustrating the carbonization chamber of the coke oven; Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, page 41 / 67 5 / 19 [Fig. 7] Fig. 7 is a graph illustrating a relationship between the operational period of a coke oven battery α and a coke oven battery β in the coke oven and the percentage of non-operational ovens; [Fig. 8] Fig. 8 is a graph illustrating a relationship between the operating period of coke oven battery α and the coke oven battery β illustrated in Fig. 7 and the percentage of coke production. Description of the Modalities

[008] The embodiments of the present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the drawings. The following embodiments are preferred examples of the present invention and are not limited by these examples.

[009] Fig. 1 is a perspective view illustrating an example of a coke oven 10. First, the coke oven 10 will be described using Fig. 1. The coke oven 10 includes a regenerative unit 12 constructed of a plurality of regenerative chambers arranged side by side, and a plurality of carbonization chambers 14 and a plurality of combustion chambers 16 arranged in the regenerative unit 12. The carbonization chambers 14 and the combustion chambers 16 are arranged alternately adjacent to each other. A coke oven battery 10 is structured by a plurality of carbonization chambers 14 arranged along a longitudinal direction L.

[010] A cargo car 18 travels over the carbonization chambers 14 and the combustion chambers 16 along the longitudinal direction L of the coke oven 10. An upper wall of the carbonization chambers 14 has a plurality of loading holes (not illustrated) arranged along a transverse direction S of the coke oven 10. Coal, which is the raw material for coke, is loaded through the loading holes into the carbonization chambers 14. The carbonization chambers 14 each have end ducts 14a on both sides. Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, p. 42 / 67 6 / 19 their sides. The end ducts 14a are closed by being covered with a removable furnace lid (not shown). A feeder machine 20 is arranged on the side of one of the end ducts 14a of the carbonization chamber 14, and a guide car 22 is arranged on the side of the other end duct 14a. The feeder machine 20 and the guide car 22 move along the longitudinal direction L of the furnace.

[011] In each carbonization chamber 14, the coal is carbonized into a coke cake. To carbonize the coal, fuel gas is supplied from each regenerative chamber of the regenerative unit 12 to the combustion chamber 16 for combustion, and the heat from the combustion is transferred to the adjacent carbonization chamber 14 to heat the carbonization chamber 14. This increases the temperature in the carbonization chamber 14 and the coal is carbonized. After the carbonization of the coal is complete, the furnace lid is removed and a forward piston from the forwarding machine 20 is inserted into the carbonization chamber 14. When the forward piston is inserted, the coke cake obtained from the carbonization of the coal is advanced out of the carbonization chamber 14 and is received by the guide car 22 on the opposite side of the forwarding machine 20.A tempering car 24, capable of moving in front of the regenerative unit 12 along the longitudinal direction L of the furnace, is arranged below the guide car 22, so that the tempering car 24 receives the coke cake from the guide car 22. The tempering car 24 transports the coke cake to a predetermined location.

[012] The operation of the coke oven 10 involves repeatedly advancing the coke cake out of the carbonization chambers 14 and loading coal into the carbonization chambers 14. Repeating this operation causes wear and deformation of the oven walls of the carbonization chambers 14. Fig. 2 is a horizontal cross-sectional view illustrating the carbonization chamber. Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, p. 43 / 67 7 / 19 of coke oven 10. Fig. 2(a) illustrates the carbonization chamber 14 after completion of construction of coke oven 10, and Fig. 2(b) illustrates the carbonization chamber 14 with a deformed and partially inward-bulging furnace wall 32. The carbonization chamber 14 is formed by a pair of opposing furnace walls 32. The furnace walls 32 are produced by the vertical stacking of refractory bricks.

[013] The coke cake is advanced outward by a forward piston 26. The forward piston 26 includes a piston head 28 and a piston beam 30 to which the piston head 28 is attached. The forwarding machine 20 includes the forward piston 26 and a forward piston drive device (not shown) connected to the piston beam 30 of the forward piston 26. When the piston beam 30 is driven by the forward piston drive device, the piston head 28 is inserted into the carbonization chamber 14, and the coke cake is pushed out of the carbonization chamber 14 by the piston head 28.

[014] In the carbonization chamber 14 illustrated in Fig. 2(a), there is no occurrence of coke cake advance obstructions caused by irregularities in the furnace wall 32. In the carbonization chamber 14 illustrated in Fig. 2(b), however, the furnace wall 32 has a protrusion 34 and the coke cake can come into contact with the protrusion 34 when it is advanced outwards by the piston head 28. This can increase the resistance encountered during the coke cake advance and cause an advance obstruction. The protrusion 34 is formed when part of the furnace wall 32, which was flat, becomes bulged inwards as some of the refractories wear and deform or the joints between the refractories widen, due to coke oven aging 10.

[015] If protuberance 34 additionally becomes bulging to Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, page 44 / 67 8 / 19 inside and the piston head 28 comes into contact with part of the protrusion 34, the combustion chamber bricks that constitute the furnace wall 32 inside and around the contact area may collapse or the advance piston 26 may stop working. As the collapse of the combustion chamber bricks, in particular, often takes a long time to repair, contact between the piston head 28 and the protrusion 34 should be avoided.

[016] Therefore, the use of carbonization chamber 14 must be discontinued before the amount of bulging of protrusion 34 becomes wide enough to cause obstructions by advancing coke cake or the collapse of refractory bricks. To determine whether carbonization chamber 14 can be used, a method for predicting the service life of a coke oven battery, according to the present embodiment, predicts the usable period of the carbonization chamber that constitutes a coke oven battery, according to steps 1 to 4 listed below.

[017] 1. The furnace wall shape of the carbonization chamber 14 that constitutes a coke oven battery is measured with a shape measuring device to identify a protrusion.

[018] 2. In the carbonization chamber 14 that constitutes the coke oven battery, the furnace wall shape of the bulge is measured multiple times on different dates and measurement times to acquire a plurality of data sets, each consisting of the date and measurement time te and the amount of bulging w.

[019] 3. A regression equation representing a correspondence between time and the amount of bulging w is determined using the plurality of data sets.

[020] 4. A date and time are calculated at which the amount of bulging w calculated using the regression equation reaches a threshold. Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, page 45 / 67 9 / 19 predetermined. This threshold is a threshold determined in advance based on the amount of bulging at which obstruction occurs due to coke cake advance or refractory brick collapse. The period up to this date and time is the usable period of carbonization chamber 14 which constitutes the coke oven battery.

[021] First, a method will be described in which the furnace wall shape of the carbonization chamber 14 constituting a coke oven battery is measured with a shape measuring device to identify a protrusion. Fig. 3 is a horizontal cross-sectional view illustrating the carbonization chamber 14 of the coke oven 10. The furnace wall shape of the carbonization chamber 14 is measured under hot conditions, for example, by a laser-based three-dimensional shape measuring device 36. It is noted that the laser-based three-dimensional shape measuring device 36 is an exemplary shape measuring device that measures the furnace wall shape of the carbonization chamber 14 under hot conditions. The laser-based three-dimensional shape measuring device 36 is installed in front of an end duct 14a on the side of the carbonization chamber 14 from which the coke cake is advanced outwards.The laser-based three-dimensional shape measuring device 36 measures the shape of the furnace wall of the carbonization chamber 14 as a point cloud, obliquely irradiating the furnace wall 32 with a laser through a laser irradiation hole and receiving reflected light from the furnace wall 32 in a detection hole. The hot-state dimensions of the furnace wall shape of the carbonization chamber 14 can then be acquired.

[022] Although the furnace wall shapes on the right and left sides of the carbonization chamber 14 can be measured simultaneously Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, pp. 46 / 67 Using the laser-based three-dimensional shape measuring device 36, it is preferable to measure the furnace wall shapes on the right and left sides of the carbonization chamber 14 separately. The carbonization chamber 14 is approximately 6 m high, approximately 400 mm wide, and approximately 16 m deep at the top, and the end duct 14a has a narrow, elongated structure approximately 400 mm wide and approximately 6 m high. When the laser is irradiated from outside the carbonization chamber 14, the angle of incidence of the laser on the furnace wall 32 is shallow if the furnace wall shapes on the right and left sides are measured simultaneously. When the laser is incident at such a shallow angle, if the furnace wall 32 becomes bulging inwards, a shaded area that the laser cannot reach may be created behind the bulging portion, and the furnace wall shape cannot be measured.On the other hand, when the furnace wall shapes on the right and left sides are measured separately, the laser incidence angle on furnace wall 32 can be increased, so that the furnace wall shape can be measured even if furnace wall 32 becomes bulging inwards.

[023] The data for the shape of the right and left inner walls measured by the laser-based three-dimensional shape measuring device 36 can be evaluated separately, or these two pieces of inner wall shape data can be combined based on a reference object around the carbonization chamber 14 and evaluated as a single piece of composite furnace wall shape data. The furnace wall shape of the carbonization chamber 14 in the coke oven 10 can thus be measured using the laser-based three-dimensional shape measuring device 36.

[024] Returning to Fig. 2(b), the furnace wall shape of carbonization chamber 14 is measured using the shape measuring device. Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, page 47 / 67 11 / 19 three-dimensional laser-based 36, and the furnace wall shape data acquired by this measurement are compared with hot-state measurement data of the carbonization chamber 14 acquired immediately after the completion of construction to obtain differential shape data. A portion of the differential shape data that projects inward from an initial position based on the hot-state dimensions obtained after the completion of the coke oven construction 10 is the protrusion 34. The position of the protrusion 34 can thus be identified.

[025] If there is a plurality of protrusions projecting inward from the initial position, it is preferable to identify a portion with the widest bulging quantity w as the protrusion. This is because the bulging quantity w of a protrusion with the widest bulging quantity w is considered to be the one that increases most rapidly. The position of the protrusion simply needs to be identified at least once before predicting the usable period of the carbonization chamber 14. However, after the position of the bulging protrusion is initially identified, the most bulging area may gradually change. In this case, the position of another protrusion may be identified instead of, or in addition to, the initially identified protrusion.

[026] Next, in the carbonization chamber 14 which constitutes the coke oven battery, the oven wall shape is measured multiple times on different dates and measurement times to acquire a plurality of data sets, each consisting of the date and measurement time t and the amount of bulging w of the identified protrusion. A dashed line in Fig. 2(b) indicates the initial position of the oven wall 32 based on the hot-state dimensions obtained after completion of coke oven construction 10, and a black dot on the dashed line indicates the initial position Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, pp. 48 / 67 12 / 19 of protrusion 34 based on hot-state dimensions obtained after completion of coke oven construction 10. A solid line in Fig. 2(b) is a line parallel to the dashed line and tangent to the most bulging area of ​​protrusion 34. The initial position of protrusion 34 is a point where a line extending perpendicularly from the most bulging area of ​​protrusion 34 to the dashed line intersects the dashed line. The amount of bulging w is the distance from the initial position of protrusion 34 to the dashed line. As described above, once protrusion 34 is identified, the initial position of protrusion 34 is also identified. Therefore, the amount of bulging w of protrusion 34 can be determined by acquiring furnace wall shape data measured by the laser-based three-dimensional shape measuring device 36.

[027] Although the measurement interval for the amount of bulging w is not particularly limited, it is preferable to regularly measure the amount of bulging wa every few days, weeks, or months to check how the amount of bulging w changes over time. For example, during the operation of coke oven 10, the amount of bulging w is unlikely to change significantly over six hours or a day. However, the amount of bulging w may change, for example, over a few days. Therefore, it is preferable to set the measurement period as two weeks or one month, and measure the amount of bulging w at each defined measurement period. For a carbonization chamber where the amount of bulging w is wide, the measurement interval can be reduced to, for example, one week. This can improve the accuracy in predicting the amount of bulging w using a regression equation.Specifically, if the difference between the distance from the initial position of protrusion 34 to a. Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, page 49 / 67 13 / 19 piston head 28 and the amount of bulge w is less than or equal to 10 mm, it is preferable to increase the frequency of measuring the amount of bulge w.

[028] Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of furnace wall shape data from carbonization chamber 14. In carbonization chamber 14, as illustrated in Fig. 4, it was found that the amount of bulging tends to be wider in an area A below an installed rail 40. Therefore, area A was identified as a bulge, and the furnace wall shape of the bulge was measured multiple times at different dates and measurement times to acquire a plurality of data sets, each consisting of the measurement date and time and the amount of bulging w.

[029] Fig. 5 is a graph illustrating how the amount of bulging w changes over time. In Fig. 5, the horizontal axis represents year / month, and the vertical axis represents the amount of bulging w (mm) of the furnace wall below the rail. The graph illustrated in Fig. 5 is a plot of 10 data sets, each consisting of the date and time of measurement and the amount of bulging w, acquired by measuring the furnace wall shape of the carbonization chamber 14 with the laser-based three-dimensional shape measuring device 10 times on different dates and measurement times, and using the measurement data. A solid line in Fig. 5 is a straight line representing a regression equation obtained by performing linear regression on the 10 data points using the least squares method.By acquiring such a plurality of data sets, each consisting of the date and time of measurement te on the amount of bulging w, a regression equation representing a correspondence between time and the amount of bulging w can be determined. Although Fig. 5 illustrates an example where linear regression is... Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, pp. 50 / 67 14 / 19 performed on a plurality of data points, the present invention is not limited to that. Regression can be performed on a plurality of data points using a quadric curve or other functional format.

[030] Next, a method for predicting the usable period of the carbonization chamber 14 using the regression equation will be described. As described above, when the amount of bulge w of the furnace wall 32 increases, the coke cake comes into contact with the bulge 34, which increases the resistance encountered during the advancement of the coke cake and causes an obstruction by advancement. If the bulge 34 comes into contact with the piston head 28, the combustion chamber bricks collapse. Therefore, an experiment or similar is first performed to determine the amount of bulge w of the furnace wall 32 at which an obstruction by advancement or collapse of the combustion chamber bricks occurs. This amount of bulge is determined as a threshold in advance, and the date and time at which the amount of bulge reaches the threshold are calculated using the regression equation. These dates and times indicate the usable period of the carbonization chamber 14.

[031] The threshold for the amount of bulging w can be determined based on a gap sd between the initial position of the protrusion 34 and the piston head 28 of the advance piston 26. Fig. 6 is a horizontal cross-sectional view of the carbonization chamber 14 of the coke oven 10. The gap sd will now be explained using Fig. 6.

[032] The gap sd is a gap between the piston head 28 and the initial position of the protrusion 34 at a position where the piston head 28 is closest to the protrusion 34. A dashed line in Fig. 6 indicates the side position of the piston head 28, and a black dot on a dashed line indicates the initial position of the protrusion 34 based on the state dimensions. Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, pp. 51 / 67 15 / 19 hot obtained after completion of coke oven construction 10. The gap sd is the distance from the initial position of the protrusion 34 to the dashed line.

[033] Once the position of the protrusion 34 is identified by measuring the furnace wall shape, the initial position of the protrusion 34 is also identified. The side position of the piston head 28 can be determined by actual measurement of the side position of the piston head 28 moving through the carbonization chamber 14, or by calculation from the dimensions of the piston head 28, assuming that the center of the piston head 28 passes through the center of the carbonization chamber 14. The gap sd between the initial position of the protrusion 34 and the piston head 28 is then determined from the initial position of the protrusion 34 and the side position determined by actual measurement or calculation.

[034] As described above, if the amount of bulge w of the protrusion 34 exceeds the gap sd, the protrusion 34 comes into contact with the piston head 28 and this increases the possibility that the combustion chamber bricks will collapse. Therefore, for example, a value obtained by multiplying the gap sd by a predetermined safety factor can be determined as the threshold. Thus, by determining the threshold based on the gap sd, it is possible to reduce the possibility of contact between the protrusion 34 and the piston head 28 and the collapse of the combustion chamber bricks.

[035] In this way, the coke oven battery service life prediction method according to the present embodiment predicts the usable period of the carbonization chamber 14 that constitutes a coke oven battery. Then, from the useful period of each carbonization chamber 14 that constitutes a coke oven battery, the percentage of non-usable ovens is determined. Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, pp. 52 / 67 16 / 19 operational in the coke oven battery after a predetermined period of time. Here, non-operational ovens refer to carbonization chambers that can no longer be used after the usable period, and the percentage of non-operational ovens refers to a value (%) calculated by dividing the number of non-operational ovens by the total number of chambers that make up the coke oven battery and multiplying the result by 100.

[036] Fig. 7 is a graph illustrating a relationship between the operational period of a coke oven battery α and a coke oven battery β in the coke oven and the percentage of non-operational ovens. In Fig. 7, the horizontal axis represents the operational period of the coke oven (in years) and the vertical axis represents the percentage of non-operational ovens (%). As illustrated in Fig. 7, the percentage of non-operational ovens increased in both coke oven battery α and coke oven battery β as the operational period of the coke oven increased. As the percentage of non-operational ovens increases, the economic efficiency of the coke oven battery operation deteriorates. Therefore, a repair plan is created to stop the operation of the coke oven battery before the economic efficiency deteriorates and to repair the carbonization chambers that constitute the coke oven battery.

[037] In the case of coke oven battery α and coke oven battery β, the economic efficiency of the coke oven battery deteriorates when the percentage of non-operational ovens exceeds 30%. Therefore, a repair plan was created to repair each coke oven battery, so as to repair coke oven battery α after one year and repair coke oven battery β after four years. For coke oven battery α, the carbonization chambers were repaired by pad-up (i.e., a construction method involving the re-stacking of oven wall bricks, continuing to Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, pp. 53 / 67 17 / 19 using the existing foundation) after one year. Coke oven battery β was scheduled to be refurbished after four years, but it was found that repair costs would be reduced by repairing coke oven battery β immediately after repairing coke oven battery α. Therefore, the carbonization chambers of coke oven battery β were repaired by pad-up after two years.

[038] Here, the service life of a coke oven battery refers to the period up to the date and time when the operation of the coke oven battery is interrupted before the economic efficiency of the coke oven battery operation deteriorates. The deterioration of the economic efficiency of the coke oven battery can be determined from the correspondence between the operational period of the coke oven and the percentage of non-operational ovens, which is determined from the usable period of each carbonization chamber that constitutes the coke oven battery. The service life of the coke oven battery can be predicted based on the usable period of each carbonization chamber that constitutes the coke oven battery. If the service life of the coke oven battery can be predicted, it will be possible to easily develop a repair plan for the coke oven battery, taking economic efficiency into account.

[039] Fig. 8 is a graph illustrating a relationship between the operational period of coke oven battery α and coke oven battery β illustrated in Fig. 7 and the percentage of coke production. In Fig. 8, the horizontal axis represents the operational period of the coke oven (in years), and the vertical axis represents the percentage of coke production (%). The percentage of coke production refers to a value (%) obtained by dividing the coke production (t) from the coke oven battery after the reduction due to the presence of non-operational ovens by the coke production (t) of the Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, pp. 54 / 67 18 / 19 coke oven battery when all chambers are operating and multiplying the result by 100. The percentage of coke production can also be determined from the useful period of each carbonization chamber that constitutes the coke oven battery.

[040] In this way, a correspondence between the operating period of the coke oven and the percentage of coke production can be determined from the usable period of each carbonization chamber that constitutes the coke oven battery, and the service life of the coke oven battery can be predicted from the correspondence. By predicting the service life of the coke oven battery, it is possible to develop a repair plan for the coke oven battery, taking into account not only economic efficiency but also coke production.

[041] As described above, in the coke oven battery life prediction method according to the present embodiment, a regression equation representing a correspondence between time and the amount of bulging w is determined for each carbonization chamber 14 that constitutes a coke oven battery, the usable period of the carbonization chamber is predicted using the regression equation, and the life of the coke oven battery is predicted based on the usable period. This makes it possible to develop a repair plan for carbonization chambers in oven battery units, taking into account economic efficiency and coke production plans, and thus efficiently repair the carbonization chambers. List of Reference Signs: coke oven, regenerative unit, carbonization chamber Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, pages 55 / 67 19 / 19 14a combustion chamber end duct loading car advance machine guide car tempering car advance piston piston head piston beam furnace wall protrusion three-dimensional laser-based measuring device Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, pp. 56 / 67

Claims

1 / 2 CLAIMS 1. A method for predicting the service life of a coke oven battery, characterized in that it comprises: measuring the oven wall shape of each carbonization chamber constituting the coke oven battery with a shape measuring device to identify an inward bulge from an initial position based on the hot-state dimensions after completion of coke oven construction; measuring the oven wall shape for the bulge multiple times at different dates and measurement times to determine a regression equation representing a correspondence between time and amount of bulge; calculating a date and time at which the amount of bulge calculated using the regression equation reaches a predetermined threshold to predict a usable period of the carbonization chamber;and to predict the service life of the coke oven battery based on the expected usable period of the carbonization chamber.

2. A method for predicting the service life of a coke oven battery, according to claim 1, characterized in that a correspondence between an operational period of the coke oven and a percentage of unusable carbonization chambers in the coke oven battery is determined using the predicted usable period of the carbonization chamber, and the service life of the coke oven battery is predicted using the correspondence.

3. Method for predicting the service life of a coke oven battery, according to claim 1, characterized in that a correspondence between an operating period of the coke oven and the coke production of the coke oven battery is determined using the predicted usable period of the carbonization chamber and the service life of the coke oven battery is predicted using the correspondence.

4. A method for predicting the lifespan of a coke oven battery, according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized in that the threshold is determined based on a gap sd between a piston head of an advance piston and the initial position of the protrusion based on the hot-state dimensions after construction is completed. Petition 870250078725, dated 03 / 09 / 2025, pp. 58 / 67

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