A method and device for determining solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace

Abstract

The present invention provides a method and device for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace, which determine the initial position and evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation; determine the moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation; determine the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace, and the determination of the hourly solar irradiance attenuation takes into account the evolution correlation relationship between different solar irradiance attenuation amounts, which greatly improves the determination efficiency of the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace and the accuracy of the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace finally obtained; the calculation of the first cross-correlation coefficient and the second cross-correlation coefficient of the present invention adopts the maximum cross-correlation coefficient method, which avoids the error caused by indirectly calculating the evolution trace by the cloud; the present invention integrates the corresponding solar irradiance gradient in the calculation of the cross-correlation coefficient, which improves the corresponding matching precision and accuracy.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of solar energy utilization, and in particular to a method and device for determining a solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace. Background Art

[0002] There is a high correlation between photovoltaic power generation and surface solar irradiance. Due to its volatility and random characteristics, large-scale access affects the safe and stable operation of the power grid. Accurate prediction of solar energy resource changes can effectively improve the prediction ability of photovoltaic power generation, thereby effectively reducing the cost of power operation and optimizing scheduling decision support, and obtaining greater photovoltaic power generation benefits. Under the influence of natural conditions such as day and night, seasons, geographical latitude and altitude, solar energy resources make the solar radiation value reaching the top of the atmosphere a relatively regular and stable value, while the influence of random factors such as sunny, cloudy, cloud, and rain will make the solar irradiance reaching a certain ground both intermittent and extremely unstable. If there are clouds or dust above the photovoltaic power station, their reflection and absorption will cause the solar irradiance reaching the photovoltaic panel to attenuate to varying degrees. Due to the continuous changes in these factors affecting radiation attenuation, the attenuation evolves in space, forming unstable fluctuations, which increases the difficulty of predicting photovoltaic power generation.

[0003] At present, the methods for obtaining solar irradiance are mainly based on ground-based site observations, satellite remote sensing and numerical simulations. In determining the evolution of solar radiation attenuation, satellite remote sensing and numerical simulation can obtain effective solar irradiance information over a large range and for a long time in equal time and space compared with ground-based site observations. However, since the solar irradiance information at each time is discrete data and the clear sky solar radiation data cannot be directly observed, the correlation between the corresponding attenuation degrees cannot be effectively established in time and space. As a result, the cloud, which has the main influence on radiation, is often used as a characterization to analyze its evolution process in the research. The attenuation effect of clouds with different characteristics on radiation is indirectly estimated. The cloud wind that corresponds to the cloud process is used to invert and calculate the mobile change process. The radiation effect of clouds under short-term rapid changes cannot be considered, and the attenuation of solar irradiance by other influencing factors is ignored in the process. When selecting the search range size of the corresponding evolution trace, if the corresponding matching range is too small, the corresponding information will be lacking, which will easily cause errors in the search and matching of adjacent moments. If the search window is too large, the calculation efficiency will be reduced. In the prior art, the evolution of solar irradiance attenuation generally only considers a single cloud feature, and estimates the evolution of solar irradiance attenuation based on the cloud feature. The process of determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace is inefficient, and the accuracy of the obtained results is also low. Summary of the invention

[0004] In order to overcome the shortcomings of the above-mentioned prior art in terms of low efficiency and accuracy, the present invention provides a method for determining a solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace, comprising:

[0005] Determine the initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the hourly solar irradiance attenuation, and determine the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time in the search area;

[0006] Determine the moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the initial position and the evolving position;

[0007] The solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace is determined based on the moving distance and the moving direction.

[0008] The determining of the initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the hourly solar irradiance attenuation comprises:

[0009] Based on the historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information observed by satellite, the least squares support vector machine method is used to determine the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance.

[0010] Taking the difference between the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance and the hourly full sky solar irradiance observed by satellite as the hourly solar irradiance attenuation;

[0011] The hourly solar irradiance attenuation values ​​greater than or equal to zero are retained to obtain the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation values;

[0012] The initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined based on the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation.

[0013] The historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information includes hourly temperature, air pressure, wind speed, visibility and water vapor pressure.

[0014] The determining the initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation comprises:

[0015] Calculate the entropy value of the hourly solar irradiance attenuation after screening;

[0016] Take the equal-length calculation area with the largest entropy value as the tracing area;

[0017] The center point of the tracer area is taken as the initial position.

[0018] Determining the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time in the search area includes:

[0019] The maximum cross-correlation coefficient method is used to calculate the first cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area and at the target time;

[0020] The maximum cross-correlation coefficient method is used to calculate the second cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance gradient in the tracing area and the target time;

[0021] calculating a weighted average of the first cross-correlation coefficient and the tracer area and the second cross-correlation coefficient;

[0022] The center point of the area corresponding to the largest weighted average value is taken as the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time.

[0023] The step of determining the moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the initial position and the evolving position includes:

[0024] The moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined based on the absolute coordinates of the initial position and the absolute coordinates of the evolution position, and the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined.

[0025] The determining of the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace based on the moving distance and the moving direction includes:

[0026] The maximum wind speed at the evolving location and the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed observed by satellite;

[0027] The moving distance and the moving direction are checked based on the maximum wind speed and the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed. If both the moving distance and the moving direction pass the check, the final solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace is obtained based on the moving direction and the moving distance.

[0028] The checking of the moving distance and the moving direction based on the maximum wind speed and the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed includes:

[0029] The product of the maximum wind speed and the time is taken as the moving distance of the maximum wind speed, and the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is less than or equal to the moving distance of the maximum wind speed for comparison; if the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is less than or equal to the moving distance of the maximum wind speed, it is determined that the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation passes the test; otherwise, the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation fails the test;

[0030] The wind direction range is set based on the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed, and it is determined whether the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation is within the wind direction range. If so, it is determined that the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation passes the test; otherwise, the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation fails the test.

[0031] The first cross-correlation coefficient is calculated as follows:

[0032]

[0033] In the formula, R 1(m,n) is the first cross-correlation coefficient, i is the row number of the tracking area, j is the column number of the tracking area, m is the row number of the interval between the tracking area and any search area at the target time, n is the column number of the interval between the tracking area and any search area at the target time, E 0 (i, j) is the solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, E 1 (i, j) is the attenuation of solar irradiance in any search area at the target time, and is the average solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, is the average solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time, where N is the side length of the search area.

[0034] The second cross-correlation coefficient is calculated as follows:

[0035]

[0036] In the formula, R 2 (m,n) is the second cross-correlation coefficient, is the gradient of solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, is the gradient of solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time, is the gradient of the average solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, is the gradient of the average solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time.

[0037] The moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is specifically determined by the following formula:

[0038]

[0039] In the formula, S A is the moving distance of solar irradiance attenuation, x A is the horizontal coordinate value of the initial position, y A is the ordinate value of the initial position, x B is the horizontal coordinate value of the evolution position, y B is the ordinate value of the evolution position.

[0040] On the other hand, the present invention also provides a device for determining a solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace, comprising:

[0041] A first determination module is used to determine the initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the hourly solar irradiance attenuation, and determine the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time in the search area;

[0042] A second determination module is used to determine the moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the initial position and the evolution position;

[0043] The third determination module is used to determine the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace based on the moving distance and the moving direction.

[0044] The first determination module includes an initial position determination unit, and the initial position determination unit is specifically used to:

[0045] Based on the historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information observed by satellite, the least squares support vector machine method is used to determine the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance.

[0046] Taking the difference between the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance and the hourly full sky solar irradiance observed by satellite as the hourly solar irradiance attenuation;

[0047] The hourly solar irradiance attenuation values ​​greater than or equal to zero are retained to obtain the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation values;

[0048] The initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined based on the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation.

[0049] The historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information includes hourly temperature, air pressure, wind speed, visibility and water vapor pressure.

[0050] The technical solution provided by the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0051] In the method for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace provided by the present invention, the initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined based on the hourly solar irradiance attenuation, and the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time is determined in the search area; the moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation are determined based on the initial position and the evolution position; the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace is determined based on the moving distance and the moving direction, and the determination of the hourly solar irradiance attenuation takes into account the evolution correlation relationship between different solar irradiance attenuations, which greatly improves the determination efficiency of the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace and the accuracy of the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace finally obtained;

[0052] The present invention determines the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance based on the historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information observed by satellite, taking into account comprehensively, specifically taking into account the historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information including hourly temperature, air pressure, wind speed, visibility and water vapor pressure, providing a basis for determining the hourly solar irradiance attenuation;

[0053] The present invention takes the difference between the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance and the hourly full sky solar irradiance observed by satellite as the hourly solar irradiance attenuation, and screens the hourly solar irradiance attenuation, so that the hourly solar irradiance attenuation obtained has high accuracy;

[0054] The present invention adopts the maximum cross-correlation coefficient method to calculate the first cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area and the target time, and adopts the maximum cross-correlation coefficient method to calculate the second cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance gradient in the tracing area and the target time, thereby avoiding the error caused by indirectly calculating the evolution trace of the cloud;

[0055] The present invention integrates the corresponding solar irradiance gradient and improves the corresponding matching accuracy. The entropy value of the hourly solar irradiance attenuation after screening is calculated, and the equal-length calculation area with the largest entropy value is taken as the tracing area. Finally, the center point of the tracing area is taken as the initial position, and the matching window is adaptively adjusted to improve the calculation efficiency and accuracy. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0056] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for determining a solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0057] Figure 2 Schematic diagram of the moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0058] Figure 3 It is a block diagram of a device for determining a solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace in an embodiment of the present invention. DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0059] The present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0060] Example 1

[0061] Embodiment 1 of the present invention provides a method for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace, and the specific flow chart is as follows: Figure 1 As shown, the specific process is as follows:

[0062] S101: determining an initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the hourly solar irradiance attenuation, and determining an evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at a target time in a search area;

[0063] S102: Determine the moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the initial position and the evolved position;

[0064] S103: Determine the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace based on the moving distance and the moving direction.

[0065] The initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined based on the hourly solar irradiance attenuation, including:

[0066] Based on the historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information observed by satellite, the least squares support vector machine method (LS-SVM) is used to determine the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance.

[0067] The difference between the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance and the hourly full sky solar irradiance observed by satellite is taken as the hourly solar irradiance attenuation;

[0068] The hourly solar irradiance attenuation values ​​greater than or equal to zero are retained to obtain the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation values;

[0069] The initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined based on the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation.

[0070] Historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information includes hourly temperature, air pressure, wind speed, visibility and water vapor pressure.

[0071] The initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined based on the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation, including:

[0072] Calculate the entropy value of the hourly solar irradiance attenuation after screening;

[0073] Take the equal-length calculation area with the largest entropy value as the tracing area;

[0074] The center point of the tracer area is taken as the initial position.

[0075] Determine the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time in the search area, including:

[0076] The maximum cross-correlation coefficient (MCC) method is used to calculate the first cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area and the target time. The specific formula of the first cross-correlation coefficient in the embodiment of the present invention is as follows:

[0077]

[0078] In the formula, R 1 (m,n) is the first cross-correlation coefficient, i is the row number of the tracking area, j is the column number of the tracking area, m is the row number of the interval between the tracking area and any search area at the target time, n is the column number of the interval between the tracking area and any search area at the target time, E 0 (i, j) is the solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, E 1 (i, j) is the attenuation of solar irradiance in any search area at the target time, and is the average solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, is the average solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time, where N is the side length of the search area.

[0079] The maximum cross-correlation coefficient (MCC) method is used to calculate the second cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance gradient in the tracing area and the target time. The specific formula of the second cross-correlation coefficient in the embodiment of the present invention is as follows:

[0080]

[0081] In the formula, R 2 (m,n) is the second cross-correlation coefficient, is the gradient of solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, is the gradient of solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time, is the gradient of the average solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, is the gradient of the average solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time.

[0082] Calculate the weighted average of the first cross-correlation coefficient and the tracer area and the second cross-correlation coefficient, specifically: construct and solve the function R(m,n)=λR 1 (m,n)+(1-λ)R 2 (m,n), get the weight coefficient λ;

[0083] The center point of the area corresponding to the largest weighted average value is taken as the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time.

[0084] The moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation are determined based on the initial position and the evolving position, including:

[0085] Based on the absolute coordinates of the initial position and the absolute coordinates of the evolving position, the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined, and the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined. In the embodiment of the present invention, Figure 2 As shown, let the initial time t 0 When the solar irradiance attenuation is at the initial position A(x A ,y A ), target time t 1 When the solar irradiance attenuation evolves, the position is B(x B ,y B ), so the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation can be determined according to the two-point distance formula, specifically: S A is the moving distance of solar irradiance attenuation, x A is the horizontal coordinate value of the initial position, y A is the ordinate value of the initial position, x B is the horizontal coordinate value of the evolution position, y Bis the ordinate value of the evolution position.

[0086] Determine the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace based on the moving distance and moving direction, including:

[0087] The maximum wind speed at the evolving location and the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed observed by satellite;

[0088] The moving distance and moving direction are tested based on the maximum wind speed and the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed. If both the moving distance and the moving direction pass the test, the final solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace is obtained based on the moving direction and the moving distance.

[0089] The moving distance and moving direction are checked based on the maximum wind speed and the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed, including:

[0090] The product of the maximum wind speed and the time is taken as the moving distance of the maximum wind speed, and the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is less than or equal to the moving distance of the maximum wind speed for comparison; if the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is less than or equal to the moving distance of the maximum wind speed, it is determined that the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation passes the test, otherwise, the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation fails the test;

[0091] The wind direction range is set based on the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed, and it is determined whether the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation is within the set wind direction range. If so, it is determined that the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation passes the test, otherwise, the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation fails the test.

[0092] Example 2

[0093] Based on the same inventive concept, Embodiment 2 of the present invention also provides a device for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace, such as Figure 3 As shown, the functions of each component are described in detail below:

[0094] A first determination module is used to determine the initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the hourly solar irradiance attenuation, and determine the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time in the search area;

[0095] A second determination module is used to determine the moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the initial position and the evolution position;

[0096] The third determination module is used to determine the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace based on the moving distance and the moving direction.

[0097] The first determination module includes an initial position determination unit, and the initial position determination unit is specifically used for:

[0098] Based on the historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information observed by satellite, the least squares support vector machine method is used to determine the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance.

[0099] The difference between the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance and the hourly full sky solar irradiance observed by satellite is taken as the hourly solar irradiance attenuation;

[0100] The hourly solar irradiance attenuation values ​​greater than or equal to zero are retained to obtain the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation values;

[0101] The initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined based on the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation.

[0102] Historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information includes hourly temperature, air pressure, wind speed, visibility and water vapor pressure.

[0103] The initial position determination unit is specifically used for:

[0104] Calculate the entropy value of the hourly solar irradiance attenuation after screening;

[0105] Take the equal-length calculation area with the largest entropy value as the tracing area;

[0106] The center point of the tracer area is taken as the initial position.

[0107] The first determination module includes an evolution position determination unit, and the evolution position determination unit is specifically used for:

[0108] The maximum cross-correlation coefficient method is used to calculate the first cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area and at the target time;

[0109] The maximum cross-correlation coefficient method is used to calculate the second cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance gradient in the tracing area and the target time;

[0110] calculating a weighted average of the first cross-correlation coefficient and the tracer area and the second cross-correlation coefficient;

[0111] The center point of the area corresponding to the largest weighted average value is taken as the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time.

[0112] The second determination module is specifically used for:

[0113] The moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined based on the absolute coordinates of the initial position and the absolute coordinates of the evolving position, and the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined using a two-point distance formula.

[0114] The third determination module is specifically used for:

[0115] The maximum wind speed at the evolving location and the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed observed by satellite;

[0116] The moving distance and moving direction are tested based on the maximum wind speed and the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed. If both the moving distance and the moving direction pass the test, the final solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace is obtained based on the moving direction and the moving distance.

[0117] The third determination module is specifically used for:

[0118] The product of the maximum wind speed and the time is taken as the moving distance of the maximum wind speed, and the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is less than or equal to the moving distance of the maximum wind speed for comparison; if the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is less than or equal to the moving distance of the maximum wind speed, it is determined that the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation passes the test, otherwise, the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation fails the test;

[0119] The wind direction range is set based on the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed, and it is determined whether the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation is within the wind direction range. If so, it is determined that the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation passes the test, otherwise, the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation fails the test.

[0120] The evolution position determination unit calculates the first cross-correlation coefficient according to the following formula:

[0121]

[0122] In the formula, R 1 (m,n) is the first cross-correlation coefficient, i is the row number of the tracking area, j is the column number of the tracking area, m is the row number of the interval between the tracking area and any search area at the target time, n is the column number of the interval between the tracking area and any search area at the target time, E 0 (i, j) is the solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, E 1 (i, j) is the attenuation of solar irradiance in any search area at the target time, and is the average solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, is the average solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time, where N is the side length of the search area.

[0123] The evolution position determination unit calculates the second cross-correlation coefficient according to the following formula:

[0124]

[0125] In the formula, R 2 (m,n) is the second cross-correlation coefficient, is the gradient of solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, is the gradient of solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time, is the gradient of the average solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, is the gradient of the average solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time.

[0126] The second determination module calculates the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation according to the following formula:

[0127]

[0128] In the formula, S A is the moving distance of solar irradiance attenuation, x A is the horizontal coordinate value of the initial position, y A is the ordinate value of the initial position, x B is the horizontal coordinate value of the evolution position, y B is the ordinate value of the evolution position.

[0129] For the convenience of description, the above parts of the device are divided into various modules or units according to their functions and described separately. Of course, when implementing the present application, the functions of each module or unit can be implemented in the same or multiple software or hardware.

[0130] Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments of the present application may be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, the present application may adopt the form of a complete hardware embodiment, a complete software embodiment, or an embodiment in combination with software and hardware. Moreover, the present application may adopt the form of a computer program product implemented in one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) that include computer-usable program code.

[0131] The present application is described with reference to the flowcharts and / or block diagrams of the methods, devices (systems), and computer program products according to the embodiments of the present application. It should be understood that each process and / or box in the flowchart and / or block diagram, as well as the combination of the processes and / or boxes in the flowchart and / or block diagram, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, a special-purpose computer, an embedded processor, or other programmable data processing device to generate a machine, so that the instructions executed by the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing device generate instructions for implementing the processes in the flowchart and / or block diagram. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in a block or multiple blocks.

[0132] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory capable of directing a computer or other programmable data processing device to operate in a specific manner, so that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture comprising an instruction device, which implements the process Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A function specified in one or more boxes.

[0133] These computer program instructions can also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device so that a series of operating steps are executed on the computer or other programmable device to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions for implementing the process in the computer or other programmable device. Figure 1 A process or multiple processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps for the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0134] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention rather than to limit it. Ordinary technicians in the relevant field can still modify or make equivalent substitutions to the specific implementation methods of the present invention with reference to the above embodiments. Any modifications or equivalent substitutions that do not depart from the spirit and scope of the present invention are within the scope of protection of the claims of the present invention to be approved.

Claims

1. A method for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace, characterized in that: include: Determine the initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the hourly solar irradiance attenuation, and determine the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time in the search area; Determine the moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the initial position and the evolving position; Determine the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace based on the moving distance and the moving direction; The determining of the initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the hourly solar irradiance attenuation comprises: Based on the historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information observed by satellite, the least squares support vector machine method is used to determine the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance. Taking the difference between the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance and the hourly full sky solar irradiance observed by satellite as the hourly solar irradiance attenuation; The hourly solar irradiance attenuation values ​​greater than or equal to zero are retained to obtain the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation values; Determining an initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation; The historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information includes hourly temperature, air pressure, wind speed, visibility and water vapor pressure; The determining the initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation comprises: Calculate the entropy value of the hourly solar irradiance attenuation after screening; Take the equal-length calculation area with the largest entropy value as the tracing area; The center point of the tracer area is taken as the initial position; Determining the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time in the search area includes: The maximum cross-correlation coefficient method is used to calculate the first cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area and at the target time; The maximum cross-correlation coefficient method is used to calculate the second cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance gradient in the tracing area and the target time; calculating a weighted average of the first cross-correlation coefficient and the tracer area and the second cross-correlation coefficient; The center point of the area corresponding to the largest weighted average value is taken as the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time.

2. The method for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace according to claim 1, characterized in that: The step of determining the moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the initial position and the evolving position includes: The moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined based on the absolute coordinates of the initial position and the absolute coordinates of the evolution position, and the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is determined.

3. The method for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace according to claim 1, characterized in that: The determining of the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace based on the moving distance and the moving direction includes: The maximum wind speed at the evolving location and the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed observed by satellite; The moving distance and the moving direction are checked based on the maximum wind speed and the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed. If both the moving distance and the moving direction pass the check, the final solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace is obtained based on the moving direction and the moving distance.

4. The method for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace according to claim 3, characterized in that: The checking of the moving distance and the moving direction based on the maximum wind speed and the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed includes: The product of the maximum wind speed and the time is taken as the moving distance of the maximum wind speed, and the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is less than or equal to the moving distance of the maximum wind speed for comparison; if the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is less than or equal to the moving distance of the maximum wind speed, it is determined that the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation passes the test; otherwise, the moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation fails the test; The wind direction range is set based on the wind direction corresponding to the maximum wind speed, and it is determined whether the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation is within the wind direction range. If so, it is determined that the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation passes the test; otherwise, the moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation fails the test.

5. The method for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace according to claim 1, characterized in that: The first cross-correlation coefficient is calculated as follows: Where R1(m,n) is the first cross-correlation coefficient, i is the row number of the tracing area, j is the column number of the tracing area, m is the row number of the interval between the tracing area and any search area at the target time, n is the column number of the interval between the tracing area and any search area at the target time, E0(i,j) is the solar irradiance attenuation of the tracing area, E1(i,j) is the solar irradiance attenuation of any search area at the target time, and is the average solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, is the average solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time, where N is the side length of the search area.

6. The method for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace according to claim 1, characterized in that: The second cross-correlation coefficient is calculated as follows: Where R2(m,n) is the second cross-correlation coefficient, ▽E0(i,j) is the gradient of the solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, and ▽E1(i+m,j+n) is the gradient of the solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time. is the gradient of the average solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area, is the gradient of the average solar irradiance attenuation in any search area at the target time.

7. The method for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace according to claim 5, characterized in that: The moving distance of the solar irradiance attenuation is specifically determined by the following formula: In the formula, S A is the moving distance of solar irradiance attenuation, x A is the horizontal coordinate value of the initial position, y A is the ordinate value of the initial position, x B is the horizontal coordinate value of the evolution position, y B is the ordinate value of the evolution position.

8. A device for determining the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace, characterized in that: include: A first determination module is used to determine the initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the hourly solar irradiance attenuation, and determine the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time in the search area; A second determination module is used to determine the moving distance and moving direction of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the initial position and the evolution position; A third determination module is used to determine the solar irradiance attenuation evolution trace based on the moving distance and the moving direction; The first determination module includes an initial position determination unit, and the initial position determination unit is specifically used to: Based on the historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information observed by satellite, the least squares support vector machine method is used to determine the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance. Taking the difference between the historical hourly clear sky solar irradiance and the hourly full sky solar irradiance observed by satellite as the hourly solar irradiance attenuation; The hourly solar irradiance attenuation values ​​greater than or equal to zero are retained to obtain the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation values; Determining an initial position of the solar irradiance attenuation based on the screened hourly solar irradiance attenuation; The historical clear sky hourly meteorological observation information includes hourly temperature, air pressure, wind speed, visibility and water vapor pressure; The initial position determination unit is specifically used for: Calculate the entropy value of the hourly solar irradiance attenuation after screening; Take the equal-length calculation area with the largest entropy value as the tracing area; The center point of the tracer area is taken as the initial position; The first determination module includes an evolution position determination unit, and the evolution position determination unit is specifically used for: The maximum cross-correlation coefficient method is used to calculate the first cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance attenuation in the tracing area and at the target time; The maximum cross-correlation coefficient method is used to calculate the second cross-correlation coefficient of the solar irradiance gradient in the tracing area and the target time; calculating a weighted average of the first cross-correlation coefficient and the tracer area and the second cross-correlation coefficient; The center point of the area corresponding to the largest weighted average value is taken as the evolution position of the solar irradiance attenuation at the target time.

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