一种地区电网支路越限风险的概率预测方法及系统
By calculating the probability density function of aggregated load active power using a high-order Markov chain and Gaussian mixture model, and combining it with the linear relationship of regional power grid branches, the problem of the inability to predict the upcoming operational risks of the power grid in existing technologies is solved, and high-precision prediction of branch over-limit risks is achieved.
Patent Information
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Patents(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE CO LTD
- Filing Date
- 2020-05-14
- Publication Date
- 2026-07-17
AI Technical Summary
Existing regional power grid operation risk assessment technologies are unable to predict impending operational risks, especially since the accuracy of distribution network load forecasting is low, with high randomness and volatility, making it difficult to provide effective pre-control information.
Based on the high-order Markov chain and Gaussian mixture model, the probability density function of aggregated load active power is calculated. Combined with the linear relationship of regional power grid branches, the probability distribution function of branch active power and the risk of exceeding limits are predicted.
It provides high-precision probability prediction of branch over-limit risk in regional power grids, gives accurate probability information, and improves the prediction accuracy of branch over-limit risk in the future.
Smart Images
Figure CN111738489B_ABST