A new energy power generation power prediction deviation quantification evaluation method and system

Abstract

The application provides a new energy power generation power prediction deviation quantitative evaluation method and system, comprising: acquiring data of a new energy power station and actual consumption limitation of a power grid; based on the data of the new energy power station and the actual consumption limitation of the power grid, selecting a corresponding deviation quantitative index from a plurality of preset deviation quantitative indexes, and calculating index values of each deviation quantitative index based on a predicted power calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantitative index; and based on the values of each deviation quantitative index, evaluating the new energy power generation power prediction deviation. The new energy power generation power prediction deviation quantitative evaluation method in the application can accurately reflect the power deviation degree of the predicted power, and effectively guide the regulation and operation of new energy.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention belongs to the field of new energy power generation prediction technology, specifically relating to a method and system for quantitatively evaluating the prediction deviation of new energy power generation. Background Technology

[0002] Forecasting renewable energy power generation is one of the effective means to address the problems brought about by large-scale random fluctuations in renewable energy grid connections. However, the forecast results of renewable energy power generation are subject to deviations. When formulating power generation plans based on these forecasts, the deviations in power forecast results must be reasonably considered. However, current accuracy analysis indicators or prediction deviation assessment indicators for renewable energy power generation mainly use conventional statistical indicators such as root mean square error and mean absolute error. The physical meaning of the statistical results of these indicators is unclear, especially in reflecting power deviations, and they cannot effectively guide dispatching applications. Therefore, how to reflect different levels of power deviation in the quantitative results of prediction deviations and effectively support the regulation and operation of renewable energy is a problem that urgently needs to be solved by those skilled in the art. Summary of the Invention

[0003] To overcome the shortcomings of the prior art, this invention provides a method for quantitatively evaluating the prediction deviation of new energy power generation, comprising:

[0004] Acquire data on new energy power plants and the actual grid absorption limit; based on the data on new energy power plants and the actual grid absorption limit, select the corresponding deviation quantification index from a plurality of preset deviation quantification indicators, and calculate the index value of each deviation quantification index based on the predicted power calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification index.

[0005] The prediction deviation of new energy power generation is evaluated based on the index values ​​of the aforementioned deviation quantification indicators.

[0006] Preferably, the data for new energy power plants includes: the installed capacity of the new energy power plant, the available power generation capacity for each time period, the actual power generation capacity, and the predicted power generation capacity for each time period.

[0007] Preferably, based on the data from the new energy power plant and the actual grid absorption limitations, a corresponding deviation quantification index is selected from preset deviation quantification indices, including:

[0008] Based on the relationship between the difference between available power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of new energy power plants, the corresponding deviation quantification indicators are determined as: over-predicted power generation exempt from assessment, first-level over-predicted power generation, second-level over-predicted power generation, third-level over-predicted power generation, or under-predicted assessment power generation.

[0009] Alternatively, the corresponding deviation quantification index can be determined as the overflow power based on the relationship between the difference between the actual power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of the new energy power station;

[0010] Alternatively, the corresponding deviation quantification index can be determined based on the actual power generation, the actual grid absorption limit, and the available power generation as the reasonable power for under-prediction.

[0011] The preferred formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the predicted electricity volume indicator that is exempt from assessment is as follows:

[0012] E M,0 =E 0,l +E 0,m

[0013]

[0014] Among them, E M,0 To avoid overestimating the predicted power consumption, E 0,l E represents the over-predicted power volume exempt from assessment when the deviation is less than A% of the installed capacity. 0,m P represents the over-predicted power volume exempt from assessment when the deviation exceeds A% of the installed capacity. p P is the predicted power generation value. t S represents the available power generation capacity. cap This refers to the installed capacity.

[0015] Preferably, the formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the first-level over-predicted electricity volume index is as follows:

[0016] E M,1 =E 1,l +E 1,m

[0017]

[0018] Among them, E M,1 For Level 1 over-predicted power, E 1,l E represents the first-level over-predicted power volume when the deviation is greater than A% of the installed capacity and less than or equal to B% of the installed capacity; 1,m This refers to the first-level over-predicted power generation when the deviation exceeds B% of the installed capacity.

[0019] Preferably, the formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the secondary over-predicted electricity volume index is as follows:

[0020] E M,2 =E 2,l +E 2,m

[0021]

[0022] Among them, E M,2 For the second-level over-predicted power, E 2,l The second-level over-predicted power volume when the deviation is greater than B% of the installed capacity and less than or equal to C% of the installed capacity; E 2,m This refers to the second-level over-predicted power generation when the deviation exceeds C% of the installed capacity.

[0023] Preferably, the formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the Level 3 predicted electricity volume index is as follows:

[0024] E M,3 =∑(P p -P t -0.3S cap ); P t +0.3S cap <P p

[0025] Among them, E M,3 The deviation is greater than C% of the installed capacity, which is the third level of over-predicted power generation.

[0026] The preferred formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the under-assessed electricity volume index is as follows:

[0027] E L =∑(P t -P p -0.1S cap ); P p +0.1S cap <P t

[0028] Among them, E L The amount of electricity used was below the target.

[0029] Preferably, the formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the overflow electricity volume index is as follows:

[0030] E O =∑(P r -P p -0.1S cap ); P p +0.1S cap <P r

[0031] Among them, E O This represents the overflow charge.

[0032] The preferred formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the under-predicted reasonable electricity volume index is as follows:

[0033] E C =E C,1 +E C,2

[0034]

[0035] Among them, E C To account for the reasonable amount of power wasted due to under-prediction, E C,1 E is a type of under-predicted reasonable power abandonment. C,2 Category II under-predicted reasonable power abandonment, PT P is the real-time absorption limit of the provincial power grid. r This represents the actual power generation.

[0036] Based on the same concept, the present invention also provides a quantitative evaluation system for predicting deviations in new energy power generation, comprising:

[0037] The data acquisition module is used to acquire data from new energy power plants and the actual grid absorption limit; the deviation quantification index calculation module is used to select the corresponding deviation quantification index from a number of preset deviation quantification indexes based on the data from the new energy power plants and the actual grid absorption limit, and calculate the index value of each deviation quantification index based on the predicted power generation calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification index.

[0038] The quantitative evaluation module is used to evaluate the prediction deviation of new energy power generation based on the index values ​​of the aforementioned deviation quantitative indicators.

[0039] Preferably, the deviation quantification index calculation module includes:

[0040] Confirmation Unit 1: Used to determine the corresponding deviation quantification index based on the relationship between the difference between available power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of new energy power plants. The index is exempt from assessment for over-predicted power generation, Level 1 over-predicted power generation, Level 2 over-predicted power generation, Level 3 over-predicted power generation, or under-predicted power generation.

[0041] Confirmation Unit 2: Used to determine the corresponding deviation quantification index as overflow power based on the relationship between the difference between the actual power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of the new energy power station;

[0042] Confirmation Unit 3: Used to determine the corresponding deviation quantification index as the under-predicted reasonable power volume based on the actual power generation, the actual grid absorption limit, and the available power generation.

[0043] Compared with the closest existing technology, the present invention has the following beneficial effects:

[0044] This invention provides a method and system for quantitatively evaluating the prediction deviation of new energy power generation, comprising: acquiring data from new energy power plants and actual grid absorption limits; selecting corresponding deviation quantification indicators from a plurality of preset deviation quantification indicators based on the data from the new energy power plants and the actual grid absorption limits, and calculating the index value of each deviation quantification indicator based on the prediction power calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification indicator; and evaluating the prediction deviation of new energy power generation based on the index value of each deviation quantification indicator. The quantitative evaluation method for new energy power generation prediction deviation in this invention can accurately reflect the degree of power deviation in the prediction power, and effectively guide the regulation and operation of new energy sources. Attached Figure Description

[0045] Figure 1 A schematic diagram of a method for quantitatively evaluating the prediction deviation of new energy power generation provided by the present invention;

[0046] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of a new energy power generation prediction deviation quantitative evaluation system provided by the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0047] The specific embodiments of the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0048] Example 1:

[0049] This embodiment provides a method for quantitatively evaluating the prediction deviation of new energy power generation. Figure 1 As shown, it includes:

[0050] S1 obtains data on new energy power plants and the actual grid absorption limits;

[0051] S2 selects the corresponding deviation quantification index from a set of preset deviation quantification indicators based on the data of the new energy power station and the actual grid absorption limit, and calculates the index value of each deviation quantification index based on the predicted power calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification index.

[0052] S3 evaluates the prediction deviation of new energy power generation based on the index values ​​of the aforementioned deviation quantification indicators.

[0053] Specifically, S2, based on the data from the new energy power plant and the actual grid absorption limitations, selects a corresponding deviation quantification index from a set of preset deviation quantification indicators, and calculates the index value of each deviation quantification index based on the predicted power generation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification index, including:

[0054] S2-1 Based on the data from the new energy power plant and the actual grid absorption limitations, select the corresponding deviation quantification index from the preset deviation quantification indexes.

[0055] Based on the relationship between the difference between available power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of new energy power plants, the corresponding deviation quantification indicators are determined as: over-predicted power generation exempt from assessment, first-level over-predicted power generation, second-level over-predicted power generation, third-level over-predicted power generation, or under-predicted assessment power generation.

[0056] Alternatively, the corresponding deviation quantification index can be determined as the overflow power based on the relationship between the difference between the actual power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of the new energy power station;

[0057] Alternatively, the corresponding deviation quantification index can be determined based on the actual power generation, the actual grid absorption limit, and the available power generation as the reasonable power for under-prediction.

[0058] S2-2 Calculates the value of the deviation quantification index based on the predicted power consumption calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification index.

[0059] By comprehensively statistically analyzing the over-predicted power volume without assessment, the first-level over-predicted power volume, the second-level over-predicted power volume, the third-level over-predicted power volume, the under-predicted assessment power volume, the overflow power volume, and the under-predicted reasonable abandoned power volume, the overall quantitative assessment of the power generation prediction deviation of the Xin Nen pipe is achieved. In this embodiment, A is taken as 10%, B as 20%, and C as 30%. The values ​​of A, B, and C can be adjusted within a certain range according to the actual situation.

[0060] (1) Exempt from assessment of predicted electricity volume

[0061] Exempt from assessment for over-predicted electricity refers to the electricity in the over-predicted electricity range where the predicted result deviates from the available generating power by no more than 10% of the installed capacity.

[0062] E M,0 =E 0,l +E 0,m

[0063]

[0064] Among them, E M,0 To avoid overestimating the predicted power consumption, E 0,1 E is the over-predicted power volume exempt from assessment when the deviation is less than 10% of the installed capacity. 0,m For the over-predicted power volume exempted from assessment when the deviation is greater than 10% of the installed capacity, P p For the ultra-short-term 4-hour predicted power, P t S represents the available power generation capacity. cap This refers to the installed capacity.

[0065] (2) Level 1 over-prediction power

[0066] Level 1 over-predicted electricity refers to the electricity in the over-predicted electricity range where the predicted amount is more than 10% but not more than 20% of the available generating capacity.

[0067] E M,1 =E 1,l +E 1,m

[0068]

[0069] Among them, E M,1 For Level 1 over-predicted power, E 1,1 E represents the first-level over-predicted power volume when the deviation is greater than 10% but less than 20% of the installed capacity. 1,m For installed capacity with a deviation greater than 20%, the predicted power generation is considered to be above the first level.

[0070] (3) Level II over-prediction power

[0071] Level 2 over-predicted electricity refers to the electricity in the over-predicted electricity range where the predicted amount is more than 20% but no more than 30% of the installed capacity relative to the available generating capacity.

[0072] E M,2 =E 2,l +E 2,m

[0073]

[0074] Among them, E M,2 For the second-level over-predicted power, E 2,1 E represents the secondary over-predicted power volume when the deviation is greater than 20% but less than 30% of the installed capacity. 2,m The second-level over-predicted power generation is the installed capacity with a deviation greater than 30%.

[0075] (4) Level III over-predicted power

[0076] Level 3 over-predicted electricity refers to the electricity in the over-predicted electricity range where the predicted result is more than 30% higher than the available generating capacity.

[0077] E M,3 =∑(P p -P t -0.3S cap ); P t +0.3S cap <P p (4)

[0078] Among them, E M,3 The predicted power consumption is at level three.

[0079] (5) Under-predicted assessment of electricity consumption

[0080] The under-forecasted power volume refers to the power volume that is more than 10% of the installed capacity of the forecasted power generation capacity.

[0081] E L =∑(P t -P p -0.1S cap ); P p +0.1S cap <P t (5)

[0082] Among them, E L The electricity consumption was below the forecast target.

[0083] (6) Overflow power

[0084] Overflow power refers to the amount of power that exceeds the predicted power by more than 10% of the installed capacity.

[0085] E O =∑(P r -P p -0.1S cap ); P p +0.1S cap <P r (6)

[0086] Where E0 is the overflow charge, P r This represents the actual power generation.

[0087] (7) Under-predicted reasonable waste of electricity

[0088] The under-predicted reasonable amount of abandoned power refers to the amount of abandoned power below the real-time absorption limit of the provincial power grid in the total amount of abandoned power.

[0089] E C =E C,1 +E C,2

[0090]

[0091] Among them, Ec is under-predicted reasonable amount of abandoned electricity, E C,1 A type of under-predicted reasonable power abandonment, E C,2 Category II under-predicted reasonable power abandonment, P T This is the real-time absorption limit for the provincial power grid.

[0092] S3 evaluates the prediction deviation of new energy power generation based on the index values ​​of the aforementioned deviation quantification indicators.

[0093] During dispatching and operation, the above-mentioned power indicators are statistically analyzed. When over-prediction occurs, wind farms are assessed according to the level of over-prediction. First, assessment weights are set: Level 1 over-prediction is assessed with a weight of 50%, Level 2 with a weight of 100%, and Level 3 with a weight of 150%. Second, the calculated Level 1, Level 2, and Level 3 over-prediction indicator values ​​are weighted and summed with their corresponding assessment weights to obtain the final over-prediction assessment result. Finally, the deviation of the power generation prediction is evaluated based on the over-prediction assessment result: if the evaluation result is excellent, the prediction method can continue to be used; if the evaluation result is good, the prediction method can be used but requires further adjustment; if the evaluation result is poor, the prediction method needs to be adjusted before use.

[0094] When there is a shortfall in forecasting, the wind farm will bear the responsibility for the shortfall assessment electricity volume. The shortfall assessment electricity volume will not be included in the curtailment electricity volume statistics, but the power generation forecasting department can adjust the power generation plan in a timely manner based on the shortfall assessment electricity volume.

[0095] Based on the same concept, corresponding thresholds can be set for each quantified indicator value. By comparing each quantified deviation indicator value with the corresponding set threshold, the deviation of the current power generation prediction can be evaluated to determine whether the prediction method can continue to be used, and to guide the formulation and adjustment of the power generation plan.

[0096] The deviation quantification evaluation method presented in this patent can intuitively reflect the prediction deviation in the quantification results, with clear physical meaning. The accurate results can also reflect the performance of the prediction results. In addition, the method of this patent also breaks down the technical barriers between the performance evaluation of prediction results and the needs of scheduling applications.

[0097] Example 2:

[0098] This embodiment provides a new energy power generation prediction deviation quantification system, such as... Figure 2 As shown, it includes:

[0099] The data acquisition module is used to acquire data from new energy power plants and the actual grid absorption limit; the deviation quantification index calculation module is used to select the corresponding deviation quantification index from a number of preset deviation quantification indexes based on the data from the new energy power plants and the actual grid absorption limit, and calculate the index value of each deviation quantification index based on the predicted power generation calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification index.

[0100] The quantitative evaluation module is used to evaluate the prediction deviation of new energy power generation based on the index values ​​of the aforementioned deviation quantitative indicators.

[0101] The deviation quantification index calculation module includes:

[0102] Confirmation Unit 1: Used to determine the corresponding deviation quantification index based on the relationship between the difference between available power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of new energy power plants. The index is exempt from assessment for over-predicted power generation, Level 1 over-predicted power generation, Level 2 over-predicted power generation, Level 3 over-predicted power generation, or under-predicted power generation.

[0103] Confirmation Unit 2: Used to determine the corresponding deviation quantification index as overflow power based on the relationship between the difference between the actual power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of the new energy power station;

[0104] Confirmation Unit 3: Used to determine the corresponding deviation quantification index as the under-predicted reasonable power volume based on the actual power generation, the actual grid absorption limit, and the available power generation.

[0105] Those skilled in the art will understand that embodiments of this application can be provided as methods, systems, or computer program products. Therefore, this application can take the form of a completely hardware embodiment, a completely software embodiment, or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, this application can take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including but not limited to disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, etc.) containing computer-usable program code.

[0106] This application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of this application. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and / or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions can be provided to a processor of a general-purpose computer, special-purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, generate instructions for implementing the flowchart... Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 A device that provides the functions specified in one or more boxes.

[0107] These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable storage medium that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing device to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable storage medium produce an article of manufacture including instruction means, which are implemented in a process Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The function specified in one or more boxes.

[0108] These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing equipment to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable equipment to produce a computer-implemented process, thereby providing instructions that execute on the computer or other programmable equipment for implementing the process. Figure 1 One or more processes and / or boxes Figure 1 The steps of the function specified in one or more boxes.

[0109] Finally, it should be noted that the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of this application and not to limit its protection scope. Although this application has been described in detail with reference to the above embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that after reading this application, they can still make various changes, modifications or equivalent substitutions to the specific implementation of the application, but these changes, modifications or equivalent substitutions are all within the protection scope of the claims pending approval.

Claims

1. A method for quantitatively evaluating the prediction deviation of new energy power generation, characterized in that, include: Obtain data on new energy power plants and the actual grid absorption limits; Based on the data of the new energy power station and the actual grid absorption limit, the corresponding deviation quantification index is selected from a number of preset deviation quantification indexes, and the index value of each deviation quantification index is calculated based on the predicted power calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification index. Based on the index values ​​of the aforementioned deviation quantification indicators, the prediction deviation of new energy power generation is evaluated. The selection of corresponding deviation quantification indicators from preset deviation quantification indicators based on the data of the new energy power plant and the actual grid absorption limitations includes: Based on the relationship between the difference between available power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of new energy power plants, the corresponding deviation quantification indicators are determined as: over-predicted power generation exempt from assessment, first-level over-predicted power generation, second-level over-predicted power generation, third-level over-predicted power generation, or under-predicted assessment power generation. Alternatively, the corresponding deviation quantification index can be determined as the overflow power based on the relationship between the difference between the actual power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of the new energy power station; Alternatively, the corresponding deviation quantification index can be determined based on the actual power generation, the actual grid absorption limit, and the available power generation as the reasonable power under-prediction; The formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the exempted predicted electricity volume index is as follows: in, To avoid overestimating the predicted electricity consumption, For predicted power generation with a deviation of less than 10% of installed capacity, the assessment exemption is granted. For predicted power generation with a deviation greater than 10% of installed capacity, the assessment exemption applies. This is the predicted power generation value. Available power generation capacity This refers to the installed capacity; The formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the first-level over-predicted electricity volume index is as follows: in, This is the first-level over-predicted power consumption. The first-level over-predicted power volume is defined as the power volume when the deviation is greater than 10% of the installed capacity and less than or equal to 20% of the installed capacity. This refers to the first-level over-predicted power generation when the deviation exceeds 20% of the installed capacity. The formula for calculating the predicted power corresponding to the overflow power index is as follows: in, This is the overflow charge; The formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the under-predicted reasonable electricity volume index is as follows: in, To account for the reasonable amount of electricity abandoned due to under-prediction, This is a type of under-predicted, reasonably abandoned electricity. Category II under-forecasted reasonable power curtailment This refers to the real-time absorption limit of the provincial power grid. This represents the actual power generation.

2. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The data for the new energy power station includes: the installed capacity of the new energy power station, the available power generation capacity for each time period, the actual power generation capacity, and the predicted power generation capacity for each time period.

3. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the secondary over-predicted electricity volume index is as follows: in, This is a level 2 over-predicted power consumption. The second-level over-predicted power volume is defined as the power volume when the deviation is greater than 20% of the installed capacity and less than or equal to 30% of the installed capacity. This refers to the second-level over-predicted power generation when the deviation exceeds 30% of the installed capacity.

4. The method as described in claim 3, characterized in that, The formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the three-level over-predicted electricity volume index is as follows: in, The deviation is greater than C% of the installed capacity, which is the third level of over-predicted power generation.

5. The method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The formula for calculating the predicted electricity volume corresponding to the under-prediction assessment electricity volume index is as follows: in, The electricity consumption was below the forecast target.

6. A quantitative evaluation system for predicting deviations in new energy power generation, used to implement the method as described in claim 1, characterized in that, include: The data acquisition module is used to acquire data from new energy power plants and the actual grid absorption limits; The deviation quantification index calculation module is used to select the corresponding deviation quantification index from a plurality of preset deviation quantification indexes based on the data of the new energy power station and the actual grid absorption limit, and to calculate the index value of each deviation quantification index based on the predicted power generation calculation formula corresponding to the deviation quantification index. The quantitative evaluation module is used to evaluate the prediction deviation of new energy power generation based on the index values ​​of the aforementioned deviation quantitative indicators.

7. The system as described in claim 6, characterized in that, The deviation quantification index calculation module includes: Confirmation Unit 1: Used to determine the corresponding deviation quantification index based on the relationship between the difference between available power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of new energy power plants. The index is exempt from assessment for over-predicted power generation, Level 1 over-predicted power generation, Level 2 over-predicted power generation, Level 3 over-predicted power generation, or under-predicted power generation. Confirmation Unit 2: Used to determine the corresponding deviation quantification index as overflow power based on the relationship between the difference between the actual power generation and the predicted power generation and the installed capacity of the new energy power station; Confirmation Unit 3: Used to determine the corresponding deviation quantification index as the under-predicted reasonable power volume based on the actual power generation, the actual grid absorption limit, and the available power generation.

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