一种基于图自注意力机制与霍克斯过程的交通流预测方法

By adopting a traffic flow prediction method based on graph self-attention mechanism and Hawkes process, the problem that existing models cannot effectively capture the dynamic spatiotemporal dependence of traffic flow is solved, and higher accuracy traffic flow prediction is achieved.

CN115358485BActive Publication Date: 2026-07-17ZHEJIANG NORMAL UNIV

Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
ZHEJIANG NORMAL UNIV
Filing Date
2022-09-14
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing time series models and Kalman filters cannot effectively capture long-term dependencies. Existing technologies cannot effectively address the highly nonlinear characteristics and dynamic time series models of traffic flow, nor can they effectively capture the dynamic spatiotemporal and long-term dependencies of traffic flow, resulting in low traffic prediction accuracy.

Method used

A traffic flow prediction method based on graph self-attention mechanism and Hawkes process is adopted. By acquiring the structural embedding information of traffic flow graph, spatial features are captured by graph convolutional neural network and combined with temporal and category embedding features. Attention score is calculated through self-attention mechanism, approximating the conditional strength function of Hawkes process. Monte Carlo sampling is used to predict the occurrence time and category of future events.

Benefits of technology

It improves the accuracy of traffic flow forecasting, better captures long-sequence dependencies and spatial information, and enhances the predictive performance of future events.

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Abstract

本发明提供一种基于图自注意力机制与霍克斯过程的交通流预测方法,其中包括:获取交通流图结构嵌入信息;将邻接矩阵和节点特征矩阵输入图卷积神经网络来获取空间特征;获取时间嵌入特征和类别嵌入特征;将空间特征、时间嵌入特征和类别嵌入特征矩阵相连接,输入自注意力机制模型,输出某一时刻t的状态ht;通过状态ht近似霍克斯过程的条件强度函数,其中,采用指数函数保证所输出的近似函数非负;通过蒙特卡洛采样方法估算未来时间发生的数学期望,给出在未来某一段时间间隔内发生某一事件的概率。本发明通过在自注意力机制上嵌入图结构信息作为辅助信息能够更好捕捉长序列依赖和序列之间的空间信息,以此预测交通流下一个事件发生的时刻和状态。
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