A social-hydrological co-evolution simulation and water supply project paradox phenomenon identification method

Abstract

The application discloses a social-hydrological co-evolution simulation and water supply engineering paradox phenomenon identification method, comprising the following steps: constructing a water supply subsystem, and introducing different water supply projects in a city into a drought evaluation system; constructing a drought evaluation subsystem, which is used for evaluating drought losses under the dynamic changes of city water supply and social and economic water demand; constructing a social and economic subsystem, which is used for simulating the changes of social and economic development under the influence of drought events; and constructing a water supply engineering paradox phenomenon identification subsystem, which is used for identifying the time nodes at which the water supply engineering paradox phenomenon appears. The method is novel, the theory is rich, and can provide scientific support for a basin manager to formulate water resource management policies and reduce the drought risk of the basin.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to social-hydrological co-evolution and water supply engineering technology, and in particular to a method for simulating social-hydrological co-evolution and identifying paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering. Background Technology

[0002] To better utilize water resources, humans have constructed numerous water supply projects. The operation of these projects has altered the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and plays a crucial role in addressing drought disasters. As a complex coupled system, the construction and operation of water supply projects, socio-economic development, and the losses from extreme hydrological events often interact with each other.

[0003] In the past decade, many scholars have developed socio-hydrological models to explore the interaction between social and physical systems, and to study the feedback relationships between socio-economic factors and extreme disasters under the influence of engineering construction and operation. Socio-hydrological modeling methods, represented by system dynamics, have been widely used. They can flexibly capture the two-way feedback relationships between human society and natural systems and have powerful simulation and prediction capabilities.

[0004] In numerous studies on the relationship between drought and social response, researchers have discovered the reservoir paradox in drought disasters. That is, the construction and operation of reservoirs can improve drought resistance standards, so that when drought disasters occur below the reservoir's design standards, the reservoir's dispatch capacity is sufficient to resist such risks. However, the improvement of drought resistance standards can create a false sense of security for urban development, making people believe that droughts are unlikely to occur. As a result, large-scale urban development increases the city's dependence on and vulnerability to reservoirs. When droughts occur that exceed the reservoir's resistance standards, they are more likely to cause greater disaster losses. Summary of the Invention

[0005] Purpose of the invention: The purpose of this invention is to provide a method for simulating social-hydrological co-evolution and identifying paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering.

[0006] Technical solution: The present invention provides a method for simulating socio-hydrological co-evolution and identifying paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering, comprising the following steps:

[0007] S1. Construct a water supply subsystem and incorporate different urban water supply projects into the drought assessment system; including calculating reservoir capacity changes and reservoir managers' drought awareness, defining the counterflow slope to reflect the trade-off between reservoir water supply and available water supply, and calculating reservoir water supply and total water supply.

[0008] S2. Construct a drought assessment subsystem to evaluate drought losses under dynamic changes in urban water supply and socio-economic water demand; including calculating relative drought losses to describe the extent of losses caused by urban drought and calculating absolute drought losses to quantify urban drought losses.

[0009] S3. Construct a socio-economic subsystem to simulate changes in socio-economic development under the influence of drought events; including calculating the public's awareness of drought and the impact of drought on socio-economic development.

[0010] S4. Construct a subsystem for identifying water supply engineering paradoxes to identify the time points when water supply engineering paradoxes occur; this includes setting different drought conditions in water source areas, urban GDP under conditions without water supply engineering measures, defining water supply engineering paradoxes, and finding the time points and patterns of occurrence of water supply engineering paradoxes.

[0011] Furthermore, the construction of the water supply subsystem in step S1 includes the following steps:

[0012] S11. On sandy rivers, the effective storage capacity of reservoirs gradually decreases due to siltation, leading to a reduction in the reservoir's water storage capacity. The change in reservoir capacity is represented as follows:

[0013]

[0014] Among them, VU t+△t VU represents the effective reservoir capacity at time t+Δt. t Let t be the effective reservoir capacity at time t; Let t be the amount of sand entering the reservoir at time t; Let t be the amount of sand discharged from the reservoir.

[0015] S12. Drought awareness among reservoir managers is a dynamic self-perception of drought conditions based on changes in reservoir inflow and sediment deposition over a certain period. Drought awareness among reservoir managers is expressed as follows:

[0016]

[0017] in, The reservoir manager's awareness of drought at time t+△t; The reservoir manager's drought awareness at time t; μ DRes The drought awareness decline coefficient for reservoir managers; This represents the average inflow volume over multiple years. Θ is the average inflow rate within time t; Θ is the memory deviation coefficient; △VU is the change in effective storage capacity between time t and time t+△t; △t is the time interval between the two times.

[0018] S13. Define the counterflow slope, which reflects the trade-off between the reservoir's water supply and available water capacity, expressed as:

[0019]

[0020] in, The slope of the counter-flow at time t is η; the counter-flow rule coefficient is η. The reservoir manager's awareness of drought at time t;

[0021] S14. The reservoir water supply is expressed as follows:

[0022]

[0023] in, V represents the water supply from the reservoir at time t; t W represents the available water volume of the reservoir at time t. t D Let t be the total water demand at time t;

[0024] S15, Total water supply is expressed as:

[0025]

[0026] Among them, W t S W represents the total water supply at time t. t T This represents the inter-basin water transfer volume at time t; if there is no inter-basin water transfer, this term is 0; W t O Let t represent the water supply from other water sources at time t.

[0027] Furthermore, the construction of the drought assessment subsystem in step S2 includes the following steps:

[0028] S21. Relative drought loss is used to describe the extent of loss caused by urban drought, specifically expressed as follows:

[0029]

[0030] in, The relative drought loss at time t,

[0031] S22. Absolute drought loss is used to quantify urban drought loss and is defined as the product of GDP and relative drought loss, i.e.:

[0032]

[0033] in, For absolute drought loss at time t; GDP t Let be the gross domestic product at time t.

[0034] Furthermore, the construction of the socio-economic subsystem in step S3 includes the following steps:

[0035] S31. When a city experiences a drought and suffers losses, it has a significant impact on society, leading to public awareness of drought, which is expressed as follows:

[0036]

[0037] in, For the social drought awareness at time t+△t; For social drought awareness at time t; μ D The coefficient of social drought awareness decline;

[0038] S32. Due to the influence of societal awareness of drought, the speed of urban economic development is correspondingly affected, as expressed as:

[0039]

[0040] Among them, GDP t+△t Let δ be the city's gross domestic product at time t+Δt; t Let be the growth rate of the city's GDP at time t.

[0041] Furthermore, the construction of the water supply engineering paradox subsystem in step S4 includes the following steps:

[0042] S41. Set different drought conditions for water source areas:

[0043] W t =kW max

[0044] Among them, W t Let be the water supply from the water source at time t, and be the sum of the water supply from the reservoir and the inter-basin water transfer; k is the proportionality coefficient, k≤1; W max This represents the maximum water supply capacity of the water source under existing engineering measures.

[0045] S42. Urban GDP under conditions without water supply infrastructure:

[0046] GDP t 无工程 =nGDP t

[0047] Among them, GDP t 无工程 Let t represent the city's GDP at time t without water supply infrastructure; n is the proportionality coefficient, n<1;

[0048] S43. Define the paradox of water supply projects as: the phenomenon that, during extreme drought, the absolute drought loss in a city with water supply projects is greater than the absolute drought loss without water supply projects.

[0049] S44. Identify the timing and patterns of the water supply project paradox; input different drought conditions in water source areas and GDP development with or without water supply projects into the drought assessment subsystem to calculate the resulting absolute urban drought losses; identify the timing of the water supply project paradox, i.e., the timing when the absolute urban drought losses with water supply projects are greater than those without; explore the patterns of the water supply project paradox.

[0050] The present invention provides a social-hydrological co-evolution simulation and water supply engineering paradox identification system, comprising:

[0051] The water supply subsystem construction module is used to calculate reservoir capacity changes and reservoir managers' drought awareness, define the counterflow slope to reflect the trade-off between reservoir water supply and available water supply, calculate reservoir water supply and total water supply; and incorporate different urban water supply projects into the drought assessment system.

[0052] The drought assessment subsystem construction module is used to calculate relative drought loss and absolute drought loss;

[0053] The socio-economic subsystem construction module is used to calculate the public's awareness of drought and the impact of drought on socio-economic development.

[0054] The subsystem for identifying water supply engineering paradoxes is used to set different drought conditions in water source areas, urban GDP under conditions without water supply engineering measures, define water supply engineering paradoxes, and find the time points and patterns of occurrence of water supply engineering paradoxes.

[0055] An apparatus of the present invention includes a memory and a processor, wherein:

[0056] Memory is used to store computer programs that can run on a processor;

[0057] The processor is configured to, while running the computer program, execute the steps of the above-described method for social-hydrological co-evolution simulation and identification of paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering.

[0058] The present invention provides a storage medium storing a computer program, which, when executed by at least one processor, implements the steps of the above-described method for social-hydrological co-evolution simulation and identification of paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering.

[0059] Beneficial effects: Compared with the prior art, the method of the present invention can achieve the following beneficial effects:

[0060] (1) This invention considers the relationship between the coordinated development of various factors in the economic and social fields and the hydrological and water resources fields, and explores the interaction between hydrological drought and social development and water supply project construction and operation, so as to better understand the coupling mechanism of the social-hydrological system.

[0061] (2) The system dynamics model established by this invention and the factors influencing the paradox of water supply engineering that have been identified can help decision-makers grasp the development trajectory of the socio-hydrological system and make appropriate strategic decisions on a macro level. Attached Figure Description

[0062] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the method of the present invention;

[0063] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of reservoir water supply under the hedging rule;

[0064] Figure 3 These are schematic diagrams of embodiments of the present invention, wherein (a) is a schematic diagram of drought awareness among reservoir managers, (b) is a schematic diagram of relative drought loss, (c) is a schematic diagram of social drought awareness, and (d) is a summary chart of GDP value data;

[0065] Figure 4 This involves identifying paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering under certain circumstances. Detailed Implementation

[0066] To address the problems existing in the prior art, this invention proposes a method for simulating social-hydrological co-evolution and identifying paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering.

[0067] The technical solution of the present invention will be further described in detail below through embodiments and with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0068] like Figure 1 As shown, a method for simulating socio-hydrological co-evolution and identifying paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering mainly includes the following steps:

[0069] Step 1: Construct a water supply subsystem and incorporate different urban water supply projects into the drought assessment system.

[0070] Step 11: On sandy rivers, the effective storage capacity of reservoirs gradually decreases due to siltation, leading to a reduction in the reservoir's water storage capacity. The change in reservoir capacity is represented as follows:

[0071]

[0072] Among them, VU t+△t VU represents the effective reservoir capacity at time t+Δt. t Let t be the effective reservoir capacity at time t; Let t be the amount of sand entering the reservoir at time t; Δt represents the amount of sand released from the reservoir at time t; Δt represents the time interval between two times.

[0073] Step 12: Drought awareness among reservoir managers is a dynamic self-perception of drought conditions based on changes in reservoir inflow and sediment deposition over a certain period. Drought awareness among reservoir managers is expressed as follows:

[0074]

[0075] in, The reservoir manager's awareness of drought at time t+△t; The reservoir manager's drought awareness at time t; μ DRes The drought awareness decline coefficient for reservoir managers is 0.06 years. -1 ; This represents the average inflow volume over multiple years. Θ is the average inflow rate within time t; Θ is the memory deviation coefficient, which is set to 3; △VU is the change in effective storage capacity between time t and time t+△t.

[0076] Step 13: During dry years, to ensure sufficient reservoir storage to cope with potential prolonged droughts, reservoir managers typically do not supply water to the city based on available water volume. Define the counter-flow slope, reflecting the trade-off between reservoir supply and available water volume, as follows:

[0077]

[0078] in, denoted as the slope of the counter-flow at time t; η is the counter-flow rule coefficient, taken as 3; The drought awareness of the reservoir manager at time t.

[0079] Step 14, as follows Figure 2 As shown, the reservoir's water supply is expressed as follows:

[0080]

[0081] in, V represents the water supply from the reservoir at time t; t W represents the available water volume of the reservoir at time t. t D Let t be the total water demand at time t.

[0082] Step 15, Total water supply is expressed as:

[0083]

[0084] Among them, W t S W represents the total water supply at time t.t T This represents the inter-basin water transfer volume at time t; if there is no inter-basin water transfer, this term is 0; W t O Let t represent the water supply from other water sources at time t.

[0085] Step 2: Construct a drought assessment subsystem to evaluate drought losses under dynamic changes in urban water supply and socioeconomic water demand.

[0086] Step 21: Using GDP to represent the level of social development, to meet urban development needs, an increase in GDP means a greater demand for water in the city. The water shortage in the system is the difference between the total water demand and the total water supply. Relative drought loss is used to describe the degree of loss caused by urban drought, specifically expressed as follows:

[0087]

[0088] in, The relative drought loss at time t,

[0089] Step 22: Absolute drought loss is used to quantify urban drought loss and is defined as the product of GDP and relative drought loss, i.e.:

[0090]

[0091] in, For absolute drought loss at time t; GDP t Let be the gross domestic product at time t.

[0092] Step 3: Construct a socio-economic subsystem to simulate changes in socio-economic development under the influence of drought events.

[0093] Step 31: When a city experiences a drought and suffers losses, it has a significant impact on society, leading to public awareness of drought, which is manifested as follows:

[0094]

[0095] in, For the social drought awareness at time t+△t; For social drought awareness at time t; μ D The social drought awareness decline coefficient is 0.029 years. -1 .

[0096] Step 32: Due to the influence of societal awareness of drought, the speed of urban economic development is correspondingly affected, as shown below:

[0097]

[0098] Among them, GDP t+△t Let δ be the city's gross domestic product at time t+Δt; t Let be the growth rate of the city's GDP at time t.

[0099] In this embodiment of the invention, Zhengzhou City, Henan Province, is taken as an example, and the annual water demand (100 million m³) of Zhengzhou City from 2000 to 2019 is selected. 3 ), local surface water volume (100 million m³) 3 Other water supply (100 million m³) 3 Water supply from the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (Middle Route), 2005-2019 (100 million m³) 3 The average annual inflow of water into Xiaolangdi Reservoir from 2000 to 2019 (m³) 3 / s), average annual water storage (100 million m³) 3 Annual siltation volume (100 million m³) 3 The data provided is the original data. Furthermore, it is assumed that 2020-2022 were three consecutive years of drought, and the inflow to the Xiaolangdi Reservoir is assumed to be 500 m³ / s. 3 Similar to the 2000-2002 period, this simulation examines drought conditions in Zhengzhou City under the conditions of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. The above data is input into various systems, and the outputs include reservoir managers' drought awareness, relative drought losses, social drought awareness, and GDP development, representing the socio-hydrological co-evolutionary relationship. The results are as follows: Figure 3 As shown in (a) to (d). It is worth noting that the inflow rate to the Xiaolangdi Reservoir from 2020 to 2022 is assumed to be 500 m³ / s. 3 The drought loss in Zhengzhou in 2020-2022 was about 5-18 times that in 2000-2002, similar to that in 2000-2002. Therefore, although the construction and operation of water supply projects can increase the city's water supply as a whole, the improvement of the city's development level will lead to greater drought losses in extreme drought conditions, resulting in the "water supply project paradox".

[0100] Step 4: Construct a subsystem for identifying paradoxes in water supply projects, used to identify the time points when paradoxes in water supply projects occur:

[0101] This invention proposes that, with existing water supply projects, urban GDP grows at an actual rate of δ, while without water supply projects, GDP grows at n (n<1) times the actual rate.

[0102] Step 41: Set up different drought conditions for the water source:

[0103] W t =kW max (10)

[0104] Among them, W tLet be the water supply from the water source at time t, and be the sum of the water supply from the reservoir and the inter-basin water transfer; k is the proportionality coefficient, k≤1; W max This represents the maximum water supply capacity of the water source under existing engineering measures.

[0105] Step 42: Urban GDP under conditions without water supply infrastructure:

[0106] GDP t 无工程 =nGDP t (11)

[0107] Among them, GDP t 无工程 Let t be the city's GDP value at time t without water supply engineering measures; n is the proportionality coefficient, n<1.

[0108] Step 43: Define the water supply engineering paradox as: the phenomenon that, during extreme drought, the absolute drought loss in a city with water supply engineering measures is greater than the absolute drought loss without water supply measures.

[0109] Step 44: Identify the timing and patterns of the water supply project paradox. Input different drought conditions in the water source area and GDP development with and without water supply projects into the drought assessment subsystem to calculate the resulting absolute urban drought losses; identify the timing of the water supply project paradox, i.e., the point in time when the absolute urban drought losses with water supply projects are greater than those without; explore the patterns of the water supply project paradox.

[0110] Based on the aforementioned method for identifying paradoxes in water supply projects, and taking Zhengzhou's existing water supply projects as an example, the city has 900 million cubic meters of water transferred from outside the city. 3 No water supply project, 0.9% of GDP t For example, the year in which the water supply engineering paradox occurs is identified as 2042. Figure 4 As shown in the figure. Further, six water diversion scenarios were set up with k=1, k=0.9, k=0.8, k=0.7, k=0.6, and k=0.5, and four urban GDP growth rates without water supply projects were set up with n=0.95, n=0.9, n=0.85, and n=0.8. The occurrence time of the water supply project paradox was identified as shown in Table 1 (in Table 1, "with > without" means that under this scenario, the absolute drought loss of the city with water supply project measures is greater than that of the city without water supply project measures at any time).

[0111] Table 1. Time of Occurrence of Paradoxical Phenomena in Water Supply Projects

[0112]

[0113] In summary, the system dynamics model constructed in this invention can simulate the synergistic evolution of drought disasters, water supply project construction and operation, and socio-economic development. It collectively refers to the increased urban dependence and vulnerability caused by reservoirs and inter-basin water transfer projects, and the resulting greater disaster losses under extreme drought conditions, as the "water supply project paradox." Furthermore, it identifies the timing of the water supply project paradox under different levels of impact on socio-economic development, as well as the timing of the paradox under different degrees of drought in water source areas. This provides scientific support for river basin managers to formulate water resource management policies and mitigate river basin drought risks.

Claims

1. A method for simulating socio-hydrological co-evolution and identifying paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: S1. Construct a water supply subsystem and incorporate different urban water supply projects into the drought assessment system; This includes calculating reservoir capacity changes and reservoir managers' drought awareness, defining the counterflow slope to reflect the trade-off between reservoir water supply and available water supply, and calculating reservoir water supply and total water supply; including: S11. On sandy rivers, the effective storage capacity of reservoirs gradually decreases due to siltation, leading to a reduction in the reservoir's water storage capacity. The change in reservoir capacity is represented as follows: ； in, For the first The effective storage capacity of the reservoir at any given time; Let t be the effective reservoir capacity at time t; Let t be the amount of sand entering the reservoir at time t; Let t be the amount of sand discharged from the reservoir. S12. Reservoir managers' drought awareness is a dynamic self-perception of drought conditions based on changes in reservoir inflow and sediment deposition over a certain period. Reservoir managers' drought awareness is expressed as follows: ； in, For the first Reservoir managers must always be aware of drought conditions; The reservoir manager's awareness of drought at time t; The drought awareness decline coefficient for reservoir managers; This represents the average inflow volume over multiple years. Let t be the average inbound flow rate within the time interval t; This is the memory bias coefficient; For time t and time t Real-time changes in effective storage capacity; The time interval is between two time points; S13. Define the counterflow slope, which reflects the trade-off between the reservoir's water supply and available water capacity, expressed as: ； in, Let t be the slope of the counter-flow at time t; For hedging rule coefficients; The reservoir manager's awareness of drought at time t; S14. The reservoir water supply is expressed as follows: ； in, Let be the water supply from the reservoir at time t; Let t be the available water volume of the reservoir at time t; Let t be the total water demand at time t; S15, Total water supply is expressed as: ； in, Let t be the total water supply at time t; This represents the amount of water transferred across basins at time t. If there is no water transfer across basins, this term is 0. Let t be the water supply from other water sources. S2. Construct a drought assessment subsystem to evaluate drought losses under dynamic changes in urban water supply and socio-economic water demand; including calculating relative drought losses to describe the extent of losses caused by urban drought and calculating absolute drought losses to quantify urban drought losses. S3. Construct a socio-economic subsystem to simulate changes in socio-economic development under the influence of drought events; including calculating the public's awareness of drought and the impact of drought on socio-economic development. S4. Construct a subsystem for identifying water supply engineering paradoxes to identify the time points when water supply engineering paradoxes occur; this includes setting different drought conditions in water source areas, urban GDP under conditions without water supply engineering measures, defining water supply engineering paradoxes, and finding the time points and patterns of occurrence of water supply engineering paradoxes.

2. The method for simulating socio-hydrological co-evolution and identifying paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering according to claim 1, characterized in that, The construction of the drought assessment subsystem in step S2 includes the following steps: S21. Relative drought loss is used to describe the extent of loss caused by urban drought, specifically expressed as follows: ； in, The relative drought loss at time t, ; S22. Absolute drought loss is used to quantify urban drought loss and is defined as the product of GDP and relative drought loss, i.e.: ； in, The absolute drought loss at time t; GDP t Let be the gross domestic product at time t.

3. The method for simulating socio-hydrological co-evolution and identifying paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering according to claim 1, characterized in that, The construction of the socio-economic subsystem in step S3 includes the following steps: S31. When a city experiences a drought and suffers losses, it has a significant impact on society, leading to public awareness of drought, which is expressed as follows: ； in, For the first A constant awareness of social drought; For social drought awareness at time t; The coefficient of social drought awareness decline; S32. Due to the influence of societal awareness of drought, the speed of urban economic development is correspondingly affected, as expressed as: ； in, For the first The city's GDP at any given time; Let be the growth rate of the city's GDP at time t.

4. The method for simulating socio-hydrological co-evolution and identifying paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering according to claim 1, characterized in that, The construction of the water supply engineering paradox subsystem in step S4 includes the following steps: S41. Set different drought conditions for water source areas: ； in, Let be the water supply from the water source at time t, and be the sum of the water supply from the reservoir and the water transfer from other basins. This is the proportionality coefficient. ; This represents the maximum water supply capacity of the water source under existing engineering measures. S42. Urban GDP under conditions without water supply infrastructure: ； in, Let be the city's GDP at time t without water supply infrastructure; n is the proportionality coefficient. ; S43. Define the paradox of water supply projects as: the phenomenon that, during extreme drought, the absolute drought loss in a city with water supply projects is greater than the absolute drought loss without water supply projects. S44. Identify the timing and patterns of the water supply project paradox; input different drought conditions in water source areas and GDP development with or without water supply projects into the drought assessment subsystem to calculate the resulting absolute urban drought losses; identify the timing of the water supply project paradox, i.e., the timing when the absolute urban drought losses with water supply projects are greater than those without; explore the patterns of the water supply project paradox.

5. A system for simulating socio-hydrological co-evolution and identifying paradoxical phenomena in water supply engineering, characterized in that, include: The water supply subsystem construction module is used to calculate reservoir capacity changes and reservoir managers' drought awareness, define the counterflow slope to reflect the trade-off between reservoir water supply and available water supply, and calculate reservoir water supply and total water supply. Incorporate different urban water supply projects into the drought assessment system; including: S11. On sandy rivers, the effective storage capacity of reservoirs gradually decreases due to siltation, leading to a reduction in the reservoir's water storage capacity. The change in reservoir capacity is represented as follows: ； in, For the first The effective storage capacity of the reservoir at any given time; Let t be the effective reservoir capacity at time t; Let t be the amount of sand entering the reservoir at time t; Let t be the amount of sand discharged from the reservoir. S12. Reservoir managers' drought awareness is a dynamic self-perception of drought conditions based on changes in reservoir inflow and sediment deposition over a certain period. Reservoir managers' drought awareness is expressed as follows: ； in, For the first Reservoir managers must always be aware of drought conditions; The reservoir manager's awareness of drought at time t; The drought awareness decline coefficient for reservoir managers; This represents the average inflow volume over multiple years. Let t be the average inbound flow rate within the time interval t; This is the memory bias coefficient; For time t and time t Real-time changes in effective storage capacity; The time interval is between two time points; S13. Define the counterflow slope, which reflects the trade-off between the reservoir's water supply and available water capacity, expressed as: ； in, Let t be the slope of the counter-flow at time t; For hedging rule coefficients; The reservoir manager's awareness of drought at time t; S14. The reservoir water supply is expressed as follows: ； in, Let be the water supply from the reservoir at time t; Let t be the available water volume of the reservoir at time t; Let t be the total water demand at time t; S15, Total water supply is expressed as: ； in, Let t be the total water supply at time t; This represents the amount of water transferred across basins at time t. If there is no water transfer across basins, this term is 0. Let t be the water supply from other water sources. The drought assessment subsystem construction module is used to calculate relative drought loss and absolute drought loss; The socio-economic subsystem construction module is used to calculate the public's awareness of drought and the impact of drought on socio-economic development. The subsystem for identifying water supply engineering paradoxes is used to set different drought conditions in water source areas, urban GDP under conditions without water supply engineering measures, define water supply engineering paradoxes, and find the time points and patterns of occurrence of water supply engineering paradoxes.

6. A device, characterized in that, Includes memory and processor, wherein: Memory is used to store computer programs that can run on a processor; A processor, configured to, while running the computer program, perform the steps of the method for a socio-hydrological co-evolution simulation and water supply engineering paradox identification as described in any one of claims 1-4.

7. A storage medium, characterized in that, The storage medium stores a computer program, which, when executed by at least one processor, implements the steps of the method for social-hydrological co-evolution simulation and water supply engineering paradox identification as described in any one of claims 1-4.

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