An electric water heater cluster demand response schedulable quantity estimation method, an estimation system and a storage medium

Abstract

The application discloses to the technical field of power grid demand response, and particularly relates to a kind of electric water heater cluster demand response schedulable quantity estimation method, estimation system and storage medium, wherein the method includes as follows: step 1: the real-time cluster load total active of current time t containing N electric water heaters is collected;Step 2: the cluster load total active of current time t containing N electric water heaters is predicted by load prediction method;Step 3: according to the real-time cluster load total active, the schedulable of current period is obtained according to cluster load total active.The application of the method can clearly grasp the schedulable load of user on the side of power grid, and provide effective information support for the implementation of power grid source-load interaction strategy.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power grid demand response technology, and in particular to a method, estimation system and storage medium for estimating the dispatchable demand response of electric water heater clusters. Background Technology

[0002] With the development of demand response technology, the load side plays a crucial role in grid stability regulation. Traditional dispatching systems are gradually incorporating demand response-related modules such as "virtual power plants," enabling the grid to have a better understanding of supply and demand dynamics and adjustability margins. Corresponding to output regulation on the generation side, demand response regulates user load, thus requiring a clear understanding of the dispatchable capacity of the regional power system.

[0003] Electric water heaters are typical temperature-controlled loads in demand response. With the widespread use of smart terminals and network technologies, it is very meaningful to effectively estimate the dispatchable demand response capacity of electric water heater clusters through theoretical simulation and prediction methods and information collection technologies, so as to provide effective information support for the implementation of power grid source-load interaction strategies. Summary of the Invention

[0004] In view of this, the present invention discloses a method for estimating the schedulable demand response of an electric water heater cluster, so as to effectively estimate the schedulable demand response of an electric water heater cluster.

[0005] In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for estimating the schedulable quantity of demand response for an electric water heater cluster, comprising the following steps:

[0006] Step 1: Collect the real-time total active power of the cluster load including N electric water heaters at the current time t.

[0007] Step 2: Using load forecasting methods, predict the total active power of the cluster load containing N electric water heaters at the current time t.

[0008] Step 3: Based on the real-time cluster load total active power Total active power of cluster load Obtain the schedulable quantity S at the current time period t. d .

[0009] Further, step 2 includes:

[0010] Step 21: Collect the energy consumption parameters of the water heater unit labeled i, wherein the energy consumption parameters of the water heater unit include the water heater heating power P. hi Water heater capacity V i Insulation power P ki Water heater set temperature T set.i Real-time tap water temperature T water.iUser water demand ΔV i Expected large water usage time t i The water heater heating rate is HS i ℃ / s;

[0011] Step 22: Estimate the duration of heating power maintained by the user's electric water heater i based on the individual energy consumption parameters of the water heater;

[0012] Let the user's start water usage time be the heating start time. The heating time is compressed into the user's start water usage time as a total duration. The duration of maintaining heating power is calculated as follows:

[0013]

[0014] Among them, T set.i Indicates the set temperature of the water heater, T water.i Indicates real-time tap water temperature, HS i ΔV represents the heating rate of the water heater. i V represents the user's water demand. i Indicates the water heater's capacity;

[0015] Step 23, determine the daily power distribution of water heater unit i:

[0016]

[0017] Among them, P hi P represents heating power. ki This represents the insulation power, and t represents the current time.

[0018] Step 24: Calculate the total active power of the cluster load containing N electric water heaters at the current time t.

[0019] Furthermore, step 3 specifically includes:

[0020] When the load is reduced, the available capacity is:

[0021]

[0022] When the load increases, the available capacity is:

[0023]

[0024] This represents the real-time total active power of the cluster load including N electric water heaters at the current time t; This represents the total active power of the cluster load predicted for the current time t, including N electric water heaters.

[0025] Furthermore, in step 23, if t aim.i +Δti If the value is greater than 86400, then the corresponding electric water heater with the designation i is not included in the calculation; where Δt i This represents the estimated duration (t) for a user's electric water heater to maintain its heating power. aim.i The target temperature.

[0026] Furthermore, if step 3 only provides a rough estimate of the dispatchable amount of a single load within the region, then a probability distribution with corresponding parameters is used to generate random numbers, and the corresponding probability distribution is as follows: V i =kP ni ΔV i ~N(V1,0.15), T set.i ~N(T) a ,0.05), T water.i ~N(T) b ,0.15), t i ~N(t1,0.2),HS i =x, where V1, T a T b t1 and x are reasonable estimates by the estimator based on the actual situation, and V i P represents the volume of the water heater. hi Indicates the heating power of the water heater. P represents hi The expected value of T after fitting a log-normal distribution set.i Indicates the set temperature, T water.i This indicates the real-time tap water temperature, t i Indicates the expected period of high water usage, HS i This represents the heating rate of the water heater, and N represents the natural distribution.

[0027] Secondly, the present invention provides a system for estimating the schedulable quantity of demand response for an electric water heater cluster, comprising:

[0028] The real-time cluster load total active power calculation module for electric water heaters is used to collect the real-time cluster load total active power of N electric water heaters at the current time t.

[0029] The module for calculating the total active power load of a cluster of electric water heaters is used to predict the total active power load of a cluster containing N electric water heaters at the current time t using load forecasting methods.

[0030] The schedulable quantity calculation module is used to calculate the total active power of the real-time cluster load. Total active power of cluster load Obtain the schedulable quantity S at the current time period t. d .

[0031] Furthermore, the load prediction method used by the total active power calculation module for the electric water heater cluster load specifically includes:

[0032] The energy consumption parameters of the water heater unit labeled i were collected, and the energy consumption parameters of the water heater unit include the water heater heating power P. hi Water heater capacity V i Insulation power P ki Water heater set temperature T set.i Real-time tap water temperature T water.i User water demand ΔV i Expected large water usage time t i The water heater heating rate is HS i ℃ / s;

[0033] Based on the individual energy consumption parameters of the water heater, estimate the duration for which the user's electric water heater i maintains its heating power.

[0034] Let the user's start water usage time be the heating start time. The heating time is compressed into the user's start water usage time as a total duration. The duration of maintaining heating power is calculated as follows:

[0035]

[0036] Among them, T set.i Indicates the set temperature of the water heater, T water.i Indicates real-time tap water temperature, HS i ΔV represents the heating rate of the water heater. i V represents the user's water demand. i Indicates the water heater's capacity;

[0037] Determine the daily power distribution of water heater unit number i:

[0038]

[0039] Among them, P hi P represents heating power. ki This represents the insulation power, and t represents the current time.

[0040] Calculate the total active power of the cluster load containing N electric water heaters at the current time t.

[0041] Furthermore, the statement based on the real-time cluster load total active power Total active power of cluster load Obtain the schedulable quantity S at the current time period t. d Calculate according to the following formula:

[0042] When the load is reduced, the available capacity is:

[0043]

[0044] When the load increases, the available capacity is:

[0045]

[0046] This represents the real-time total active power of the cluster load including N electric water heaters at the current time t; This represents the total active power of the cluster load predicted for the current time t, including N electric water heaters.

[0047] Finally, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing executable instructions that, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform the methods described above.

[0048] The beneficial effects of this invention are:

[0049] This invention provides a method for estimating the dispatchable demand response of an electric water heater cluster. By analyzing the dynamic and static characteristics of the electric water heater load, the real-time total active power of the cluster load is collected, and the current time's total active power of the cluster load is predicted, thereby establishing a model of the electric water heater load in the power grid. Through theoretical simulation prediction and information collection methods, the dispatchable demand response of the electric water heater cluster is effectively estimated, providing effective information support for the implementation of the power grid source-load interaction strategy.

[0050] It should be understood that the above general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only, and do not limit the disclosure of the present invention. Attached Figure Description

[0051] The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and form part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention.

[0052] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0053] Figure 1 This is a diagram showing the daily active power fluctuation and the active power load fluctuation after connecting to renewable energy, as described in the embodiments of the present invention.

[0054] Figure 2 The energy consumption trend diagram for estimating 2000 electric water heaters provided in the embodiments of the present invention;

[0055] Figure 3The diagram shows the load scheduling results before and after using the method described in the embodiments of this invention. Detailed Implementation

[0056] Exemplary embodiments will now be described in detail, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings. When the following description relates to the drawings, unless otherwise indicated, the same numerals in different drawings denote the same or similar elements. The embodiments described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all embodiments consistent with the present invention. Rather, they are merely examples of systems consistent with some aspects of the invention as detailed in the appended claims.

[0057] To effectively estimate the dispatchable demand response capacity of an electric water heater cluster, this implementation plan first provides a method for estimating the dispatchable demand response capacity of an electric water heater cluster, including the following steps:

[0058] Step 1: Collect the real-time total active power of the cluster load including N electric water heaters at the current time t.

[0059] Step 2: Using load forecasting methods, predict the total active power of the cluster load containing N electric water heaters at the current time t.

[0060] Step 3: Based on the above real-time cluster load total active power... Total active power of cluster load Obtain the schedulable quantity S at the current time period t. d ;

[0061] Step 2 above specifically includes:

[0062] Step 21: Collect the energy consumption parameters of the water heater unit labeled i, where the energy consumption parameters of the water heater unit include the water heater heating power P. hi Water heater capacity V i Insulation power P ki Water heater set temperature T set.i Real-time tap water temperature T water.i User water demand ΔV i Expected large water usage time t i The water heater heating rate is HS i (℃ / s); The above data collection can be carried out using direct surveys or real-time data uploads and other data collection methods.

[0063] If the above data collection is difficult, or if only a rough estimate of the dispatchable load of a single water heater in the area is needed, a probability distribution with corresponding parameters can be set and random numbers generated. Based on the results of direct survey data, the corresponding probability distribution can be summarized as follows:

[0064] Vi =kP ni ΔV i ~N(V1,0.15), T set.i ~N(T) a ,0.05), T water.i ~N(T) b ,0.15), t i ~N(t1,0.2),HS i =x, where V1, T a T b t1 and x are reasonable estimates by the estimator based on the actual situation, Vi represents the water heater volume, and P hi Indicates the heating power of the water heater. P represents hi The expected value of T after fitting a log-normal distribution set.i Indicates the set temperature, T water.i This indicates the real-time tap water temperature, t i Indicates the expected period of high water usage, HS i This represents the heating rate of the water heater, and N represents the natural distribution.

[0065] Step 22: Based on the individual energy consumption parameters of the water heater, estimate the duration for which the user's electric water heater i will maintain its heating power. In this calculation, the user's intermittent water usage will have some impact on the estimation results, but the overall power consumption will not be significantly affected. Therefore, the following assumption is made: the user's start time of water usage is considered the heating start time, and the heating time is compressed into the user's start time of water usage as part of the total duration. This duration is calculated as follows:

[0066]

[0067] Among them, T set.i Indicates the set temperature of the water heater, T water.i Indicates real-time tap water temperature, HS i ΔV represents the heating rate of the water heater. i V represents the user's water demand. i Indicates the water heater's capacity;

[0068] Step 22 sets an assumption in the estimation, and then calculates the total heating time of the water heater.

[0069] The overall process is as follows: Based on assumptions, the total heating time is obtained. After these assumptions, all heating times are compressed into the total time at which the user begins using water. The heating time during this period will then be used to calculate the user's water demand ΔV. i From the inlet water temperature T water.i Heat to the set temperature T set.i The time is Δt. i , and HSi This refers to a total water storage capacity of V. i The heating rate at that time.

[0070] Step 23, determine the daily power distribution of water heater unit i:

[0071]

[0072] Among them, P hi P represents heating power. ki This represents the insulation power, and t represents the current time.

[0073] To ensure accuracy and reasonableness, if t is used here... aim.i +Δt i If the value is greater than 86400, then the corresponding electric water heater with the designation i is not included in the calculation, where Δt i This represents the estimated duration (t) for a user's electric water heater to maintain its heating power. aim.i The target temperature.

[0074] Step 24: Calculate the total active power of the cluster load containing N electric water heaters at the current time t.

[0075] Step 3 above specifically refers to:

[0076] When reducing load, the maximum amount that can be reduced, or the dispatchable amount, is:

[0077]

[0078] When the load increases, the maximum scalable amount is:

[0079]

[0080] This represents the real-time total active power of the cluster load including N electric water heaters at the current time t; This represents the total active power of the cluster load predicted at the current time t, including N electric water heaters. In other words, the dispatchable amount is obtained by subtracting the current total active power of the cluster load from the predicted total active power.

[0081] Secondly, this implementation plan also provides a system for estimating the schedulable demand response of electric water heater clusters, including:

[0082] The real-time cluster load total active power calculation module for electric water heaters is used to collect the real-time cluster load total active power of N electric water heaters at the current time t.

[0083] The module for calculating the total active power load of a cluster of electric water heaters is used to predict the total active power load of a cluster containing N electric water heaters at the current time t using load forecasting methods.

[0084] The schedulable quantity calculation module is used to calculate the total active power of the real-time cluster load. Total active power of cluster load Obtain the schedulable quantity S at the current time period t. d .

[0085] The load prediction method used in the above-mentioned electric water heater cluster load total active power calculation module specifically includes:

[0086] The energy consumption parameters of the water heater unit labeled i were collected, and the energy consumption parameters of the water heater unit include the water heater heating power P. hi Water heater capacity V i Insulation power P ki Water heater set temperature T set.i Real-time tap water temperature T water.i User water demand ΔV i Expected large water usage time t i The water heater heating rate is HS i ℃ / s;

[0087] Based on the individual energy consumption parameters of the water heater, estimate the duration for which the user's electric water heater i maintains its heating power.

[0088] Let the user's start water usage time be the heating start time. The heating time is compressed into the user's start water usage time as a total duration. The duration of maintaining heating power is calculated as follows:

[0089]

[0090] Among them, T set.i Indicates the set temperature of the water heater, T water.i Indicates real-time tap water temperature, HS i ΔV represents the heating rate of the water heater. i V represents the user's water demand. i Indicates the water heater's capacity;

[0091] Determine the daily power distribution of water heater unit number i:

[0092]

[0093] Among them, P hi P represents heating power. ki This represents the insulation power, and t represents the current time.

[0094] Calculate the total active power of the cluster load containing N electric water heaters at the current time t.

[0095] The above is based on the total active power of the real-time cluster load. Total active power of cluster load Obtain the schedulable quantity S at the current time period t. d Calculate according to the following formula:

[0096] When the load is reduced, the available capacity is:

[0097]

[0098] When the load increases, the available capacity is:

[0099]

[0100] This represents the real-time total active power of the cluster load including N electric water heaters at the current time t; This represents the total active power of the cluster load predicted for the current time t, including N electric water heaters.

[0101] Finally, this embodiment also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing executable instructions that, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to implement the above-described method for estimating the schedulable quantity of demand response for an electric water heater cluster.

[0102] Using the method described above, a demand response simulation based on estimated values ​​was conducted for the load of a residential community. This community is powered by a 10kV feeder and serves approximately 3650 households. The daily active power fluctuation and the active power load fluctuation after the integration of renewable energy are as follows: Figure 1 As shown, the peak electricity consumption in this community generally occurs between 5 PM and 9 PM, approximately 2.2 MW, while the valley consumption generally occurs between 3 AM and 5 PM, approximately 0.75 MW. This aligns with the energy consumption habits of purely residential users, and the active power curves show a generally consistent trend across days. Assuming a total of 2000 households participating in demand response, the estimated energy consumption trend for 2000 electric water heaters is as follows: Figure 2 As shown, the load adjustment amount estimated by this method is used for demand response load scheduling. The results before and after load scheduling are as follows. Figure 3 As shown, based on the analysis of different beneficial effects, it can be concluded that in the simulation of regional distribution networks, the network loss rate can be reduced from 13.77% to a maximum of 13.42%, which can achieve a reduction in the network loss rate at the thousand-level, which has considerable positive significance for the regulation of power quality in the power system.

[0103] Other embodiments of the invention will readily occur to those skilled in the art upon consideration of the specification and practice of the invention disclosed herein. This application is intended to cover any variations, uses, or adaptations of the invention that follow the general principles of the invention and include common knowledge or customary techniques in the art not disclosed herein. The specification and examples are to be considered exemplary only, and the true scope and spirit of the invention are indicated by the claims.

Claims

1. A method for estimating the schedulable quantity of demand response for an electric water heater cluster, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Step 1: Collect the real-time total active power of the cluster load including N electric water heaters at the current time t. ; Step 2: Using load forecasting methods, predict the total active power of the cluster load containing N electric water heaters at the current time t. ; Step 3: Based on the real-time cluster load total active power Total active power of cluster load Obtain the schedulable quantity at the current time period t. ; Step 2 includes: Step 21: Collect the energy consumption parameters of the water heater unit labeled i, including the water heater heating power. Water heater capacity Insulation power Water heater set temperature Real-time tap water temperature User water demand Expected large water usage time The water heater heating rate is ; Step 22: Estimate the duration of heating power maintained by the user's electric water heater i based on the individual energy consumption parameters of the water heater; Let the user's water usage start time be the heating start time. The heating time is compressed into the user's water usage start time as a total duration. The duration of maintaining heating power is calculated as follows: in, This indicates the water heater's set temperature. This indicates the real-time tap water temperature. Indicates the heating rate of the water heater. Indicates the user's water demand. Indicates the water heater's capacity; Step 23, determine the daily power distribution of water heater unit i: in, Indicates heating power. This represents the insulation power, and t represents the current time. Step 24: Calculate the total active power of the cluster load containing N electric water heaters at the current time t. ; Step 3 specifically involves: When the load is reduced, the available capacity is: When the load increases, the available scheduling capacity is: This represents the real-time total active power of the cluster load including N electric water heaters at the current time t; This represents the total active power of the cluster load predicted for the current time t, including N electric water heaters.

2. The method for estimating the schedulable quantity of demand response for an electric water heater cluster according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step 23, if If the corresponding label i is an electric water heater, then it is not included in the calculation; where This represents the estimated duration (t) for a user's electric water heater to maintain its heating power. aim.i The target temperature.

3. The method for estimating the dispatchable quantity of demand response for an electric water heater cluster according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step 3, if only a rough estimate of the dispatchable load of a single region is made, a probability distribution with corresponding parameters is set and random numbers are generated. The corresponding probability distribution is as follows: , , , , , , V1, T a T b t1 and x are both reasonable estimates, V i Indicates the water heater capacity. Indicates the heating power of the water heater. express The expected value after fitting a log-normal distribution. Indicates the set temperature. This indicates the real-time tap water temperature. Indicates the expected period of heavy water usage. This represents the heating rate of the water heater, and N represents the natural distribution.

4. A system for estimating the dispatchable quantity of demand response for an electric water heater cluster, characterized in that, include: The real-time cluster load total active power calculation module for electric water heaters is used to collect the real-time cluster load total active power of N electric water heaters at the current time t. The module for calculating the total active power load of a cluster of electric water heaters is used to predict the total active power load of a cluster containing N electric water heaters at the current time t using load forecasting methods. ; The schedulable quantity calculation module is used to calculate the total active power of the real-time cluster load. Total active power of cluster load Obtain the schedulable quantity at the current time period t. ; The load prediction method used in the total active power calculation module for the electric water heater cluster load specifically includes: The energy consumption parameters of the water heater unit labeled i were collected, and the energy consumption parameters of the water heater unit include the water heater heating power. Water heater capacity Insulation power Water heater set temperature Real-time tap water temperature User water demand Expected large water usage time The water heater heating rate is ; Based on the individual energy consumption parameters of the water heater, estimate the duration for which the user's electric water heater i maintains its heating power. Let the user's water usage start time be the heating start time. The heating time is compressed into the user's water usage start time as a total duration. The duration of maintaining heating power is calculated as follows: ； in, This indicates the water heater's set temperature. This indicates the real-time tap water temperature. Indicates the heating rate of the water heater. Indicates the user's water demand. Indicates the water heater's capacity; Determine the daily power distribution of water heater unit number i: in, Indicates heating power. This represents the insulation power, and t represents the current time. Calculate the total active power of the cluster load containing N electric water heaters at the current time t. ; The method based on the real-time cluster load total active power Total active power of cluster load Obtain the schedulable quantity at the current time period t. Calculate according to the following formula: When the load is reduced, the available capacity is: When the load increases, the available scheduling capacity is: This represents the real-time total active power of the cluster load including N electric water heaters at the current time t; This represents the total active power of the cluster load predicted for the current time t, including N electric water heaters.

5. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The readable storage medium stores executable instructions that, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to implement the method described in any one of claims 1-3.

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