Method for splitting power and heat production and supply industry sector in multi-regional input-output table

Abstract

The application discloses a multi-region input-output table electricity, heat production and supply industry department splitting method, and the electricity, heat production and supply industry department is split into nine departments of "electricity supply, heat production and supply, coal power production, gas production, hydropower production, nuclear power production, wind power production, photovoltaic power generation production and biomass power generation production" by obtaining the economic, physical and regional characteristics of different departments in combination with macro power and economic data and micro enterprise and technical data. The application solves the problem that the previous technology can only split the electricity, heat production and supply industry department in a single region and the splitting is incomplete, the department splitting technology of the application increases the application range of researchers using the input-output table in the aspects of regions and technical scenarios, and especially enables the researchers to study related problems related to regions and the electricity, heat production and supply industry sub-departments, and improves the department precision of the input-output table.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of input-output analysis technology, and in particular to a method for splitting the electricity and heat production and supply sectors in a multi-region input-output table. Background Technology

[0002] With the growing demand for high-precision input-output tables, many researchers have attempted to break down the electricity and heat production and supply sector within these tables. However, existing sector breakdown methods are only applicable to single-region input-output tables and cannot be used to break down the electricity and heat production and supply sector in multi-regional tables. This single-region approach limits researchers using input-output tables from studying multi-regional issues involving sub-sectors of electricity and heat production and supply. Furthermore, previous sector breakdown methods were not entirely accurate; for example, many techniques failed to separate heat production and supply from electricity supply, potentially overestimating the impact of electricity production. In addition, previous methods ignored the unique characteristics of many sectors, potentially increasing the error margin in the resulting input-output tables.

[0003] Current technology only separates the electricity and heat production and supply sectors in the input-output table for a single region, making it less practical for design area studies. It also fails to separate the heat production and supply sector from the electricity and heat production and supply sector. Furthermore, it fails to separate the biomass power generation sector from the electricity and heat production and supply sector. It does not consider the consumption of inputs from other sectors by the existing electricity production sector. It oversimplifies the differences between economic sectors and results in an unreasonable division of total output. Finally, it fails to use a monetization method to break down total output and fails to separate the heat production and supply sector from the electricity and heat production and supply sector. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The present invention aims to at least partially solve one of the technical problems in the related art.

[0005] Therefore, the purpose of this invention is to propose a method for decomposing the electricity and heat production and supply sector in a multi-regional input-output table, thereby addressing the problem that users of input-output tables previously could not study multi-regional issues involving sub-sectors of electricity and heat production and supply. Furthermore, this invention utilizes the economic, physical, and regional characteristics of different sectors, combined with macro-level electricity and economic data and micro-level firm and technological data, to decompose the electricity and heat production and supply sector into as many sub-sectors as possible while minimizing errors.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, this invention proposes a method for splitting the electricity and heat production and supply sectors in a multi-regional input-output table, comprising:

[0007] A multi-regional input-output model is constructed based on the input-output table. Based on the first preset total industrial output value, the electricity and heat production and supply sectors of the multi-regional input-output model are decomposed to obtain heat production and supply, electricity supply and primary electricity production sub-sectors.

[0008] The primary sub-sector of power production is divided into secondary sub-sectors based on the preset regional power production volume. The intermediate inputs of the primary and secondary sub-sectors of power production to other sectors are then split using the second preset total industrial output value and the preset power generation ratio to obtain the first input split result.

[0009] Based on the third preset industrial output value ratio, the final demand of the heat production and supply, power supply and power production primary sub-sectors in the multi-region input-output model is decomposed, and the intermediate input of the other sectors to the power production primary sector is decomposed to the power production secondary sub-sector, resulting in the second input decomposition result.

[0010] The intermediate input amount of the pre-defined department to the sub-department of power production is divided to obtain the third input amount division result;

[0011] Based on the first input breakdown result, the second input breakdown result, and the third input breakdown result, the final breakdown result of the electricity and heat production and supply sector in the multi-region input-output model is obtained.

[0012] To achieve the above objectives, another aspect of the present invention provides a device for splitting the electricity, heat production and supply sectors in a multi-regional input-output table, comprising:

[0013] The model building module is used to build a multi-regional input-output model based on the input-output table, and to break down the electricity and heat production and supply sectors of the multi-regional input-output model based on the first preset total industrial output value to obtain heat production and supply, electricity supply and primary electricity production sub-sectors.

[0014] The first splitting module is used to divide the primary sub-sector of power production into secondary sub-sectors of power production according to the preset regional power production volume, and to split the intermediate input of the primary sub-sector and the secondary sub-sector of power production to the other sectors using the second preset total industrial output value and the preset power generation ratio, so as to obtain the first input splitting result.

[0015] The second splitting module is used to split the final demand of the heat production and supply, power supply and power production primary sub-sectors in the multi-regional input-output model according to the third preset industrial total output value ratio, and to split the intermediate input of the other sectors to the power production primary sub-sectors to the power production secondary sub-sectors to obtain the second input splitting result.

[0016] The third splitting module is used to split the intermediate input amount of the preset department to the power production sub-department to obtain the third input amount splitting result.

[0017] The splitting output module is used to obtain the final splitting results of the electricity and heat production and supply sectors in the multi-region input-output model based on the first input splitting result, the second input splitting result, and the third input splitting result.

[0018] The present invention discloses a method and apparatus for splitting the electricity and heat production and supply sector in a multi-regional input-output table. This invention solves the problem that previous technologies could only split the electricity and heat production and supply sector in a single region and the splitting was incomplete. The sector splitting technology of the present invention increases the application scope of researchers using input-output tables in regional and technological contexts, especially enabling them to study related issues involving both regions and electricity and heat production and supply sub-sectors, thereby improving the sector accuracy of the input-output table.

[0019] Additional aspects and advantages of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows, and in part will be obvious from the description, or may be learned by practice of the invention. Attached Figure Description

[0020] The above and / or additional aspects and advantages of the present invention will become apparent and readily understood from the following description of the embodiments taken in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, wherein:

[0021] Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating a method for splitting the electricity and heat production and supply sectors in a multi-regional input-output table according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0022] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of the splitting device for the electricity, heat production and supply sector in the multi-region input-output table according to an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0023] It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the embodiments and features described in this application can be combined with each other. The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0024] In order that those skilled in the art can better understand the solution of the present invention, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only part of the embodiments of the present invention, not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those of ordinary skill in the art without creative work shall fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0025] The following describes a method and apparatus for splitting the electricity, heat production and supply sector in a multi-regional input-output table according to embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0026] Figure 1 is a flow chart of a method for splitting the electricity, heat production and supply sector in a multi-regional input-output table according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0027] As Figure 1 shown, the method includes but is not limited to the following steps:

[0028] S1, constructing a multi-regional input-output model based on an input-output table, and splitting the electricity, heat production and supply sector of the multi-regional input-output model based on a first preset total industrial output value to obtain primary sub-sectors of heat production and supply, electricity supply and electricity production;

[0029] S2, dividing the primary sub-sector of electricity production into secondary sub-sectors of electricity production according to a preset regional electricity production volume, and splitting the intermediate input amounts of the primary sub-sector of electricity production and the secondary sub-sectors of electricity production to other sectors by using a second preset total industrial output value and a preset power generation ratio, to obtain a first input amount splitting result;

[0030] S3, splitting the final demand of heat production and supply, electricity supply and the primary sub-sector of electricity production in the multi-regional input-output model according to the proportional relationship of a third preset total industrial output value, and splitting the intermediate input amounts of other sectors to the primary sub-sector of electricity production to the secondary sub-sectors of electricity production, to obtain a second input amount splitting result;

[0031] S4, splitting the preset intermediate input amounts of sectors to the secondary sub-sectors of electricity production to obtain a third input amount splitting result;

[0032] S5, obtaining a final splitting result of the electricity, heat production and supply sector in the multi-regional input-output model based on the first input amount splitting result, the second input amount splitting result and the third input amount splitting result.

[0033] Specifically, the meanings of terms involved in the present invention are introduced below.

[0034] Input-output analysis: Input-output analysis is an economic quantitative analysis method that studies the interdependence of various parts of an economic system in terms of inputs and outputs.

[0035] Economic system: An economic system can be the entire national economy of a country, or it can be a region, a sector or a company, or it can be multiple regions, multiple sectors or multiple countries.

[0036] Input: refers to the material or labor inputs necessary for the production or operation of various departments, usually expressed in monetary form.

[0037] Output: refers to the amount of output from various sectors and their distribution and use, usually expressed in monetary terms.

[0038] Input-output table: An input-output table is a table that uses data to depict and simulate the interrelationships between various parts of a real economic system. It is a chessboard-like balance sheet composed of the sources of inputs and the destinations of products in the production of various sectors of the national economy. It primarily reflects the quantitative relationships of economic and technological interdependence and mutual constraints among sectors during the production, distribution, consumption, and use of products, as well as the value formation process.

[0039] Single-region input-output table: The economic system involved in a single-region input-output table contains only one region, which can be a country, a region, a province, or a city. It can only reflect the input-output relationship within a single region. Multi-region input-output table: The economic system involved in a multi-region input-output table contains multiple regions and can reflect the input-output relationship between regions.

[0040] Department: The industrial sector is a collection of independently accounting enterprises established by the statistical department to meet the needs of statistical analysis. The main products of these enterprises belong to the same product sector.

[0041] Electricity and heat production and supply sector: This is a sector in the national economic industry classification, belonging to the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry (GB / T 4754—2017).

[0042] Sector splitting: For statistical convenience, a sector in an input-output table is often formed by merging several sectors. For example, the electricity and heat production and supply sector is formed by merging three sub-sectors: electricity production, electricity supply, and heat production and supply. Sector splitting involves using certain methods to break down the combined sector back into sub-sectors.

[0043] The basic structure of the input-output table is shown in Table 1, which includes five parts: the intermediate demand matrix Z, the final demand matrix Y, the added value matrix V, the total output column vector X, and the total input row vector X'. The intermediate demand matrix Z represents the material flow relationships in the production activities of various economic sectors. The final demand matrix Y represents the industry consumption of each component of final demand (including rural consumption, urban consumption, government consumption, capital formation, and net exports); the sum of all elements in this matrix is ​​the expenditure-based GDP. The added value matrix V represents the net wealth accumulation of the economy, mainly including compensation of employees, net taxes on production, operating balance, and depreciation of fixed capital; the sum of all elements in this matrix is ​​the income-based GDP.

[0044] Table 1

[0045]

[0046] The input-output table exhibits a row-column balance relationship. From left to right, the sum of intermediate demand and final demand equals total output; from top to bottom, the sum of intermediate input and added value equals total input. Based on this left-right balance relationship, the output balance equation (1) can be obtained:

[0047]

[0048] Direct consumption refers to the direct consumption of means of production or services during the production and operation process. The direct consumption coefficient is defined as the amount of input (product quantity) directly consumed by sector i (or product i) for one unit of output from sector j (or product j), denoted as a. ij Its calculation is expressed as:

[0049]

[0050] Accordingly, the present invention arranges the direct consumption coefficients according to the departmental order in the input-output table to form an n-order square matrix, denoted by A (Equation 3).

[0051]

[0052] Furthermore, equation (1) can be converted into matrix form:

[0053] AX + Y = X (4)

[0054] By transforming equation (4), we can obtain:

[0055] X = (IA) -1 Y (5)

[0056] Where I is the identity matrix, (IA) is the Leontief matrix, and (IA) is the Leontief inverse matrix.

[0057] The direct consumption coefficient matrix (technology coefficient matrix) A reflects the production relations between industries from the demand side. Each element represents the demand of one sector's unit output for another sector, reflecting that production is essentially driven by the final demand of the economic system. Based on the above assumptions, the core of input-output analysis is to describe the relationship between various sectors of the national economy and various links of reproduction through the direct consumption coefficient matrix (technology coefficient matrix) A, and to use it for the analysis and forecasting of the economic system.

[0058] Furthermore, depending on the research region, input-output models can be further divided into single-region input-output models (SRIO) and multi-region input-output models (MRIO). MRIO can more comprehensively reflect the economic connections between regions and industries, compare differences in industrial structure and production technology levels between regions, and further analyze the interrelationships and influences between regions and industries. Compared to the SRIO model, the main feature of the MRIO model is that it adds a regional dimension to the decomposition of trade data into endogenous variables of intermediate demand and final demand. The matrix form of the MRIO model is as follows:

[0059] AX + Y = X (6)

[0060] Although equation (6) and equation (4) are the same in representation, the specific form of the matrix is ​​different from that in the previous equation. X, A and Y in equation (6) are specifically represented as follows:

[0061]

[0062]

[0063]

[0064] Therefore, equation (6) can also be further expressed as:

[0065]

[0066] Among them, X i Y represents the total output subvector of region i, i = 1, 2, ..., m; ij Let A represent the final demand submatrix of region i for region j. ij This represents the submatrix of direct consumption coefficients from region i to region j. When i = j, Y ij and A ij Let Y represent the final demand submatrix and the direct consumption coefficient submatrix within the region, where i ≠ j. ij and A ijThese represent the final demand submatrix and the direct consumption coefficient submatrix between regions, respectively.

[0067] Similar to equation (5), this invention can derive a basic model of multi-regional input-output based on the basic input-output balance relationship of equation (10):

[0068]

[0069] Where I is the identity matrix, Y i It is the column vector of total final demand for region i.

[0070] Breakdown of primary sub-sectors in the electricity, heat production and supply industry:

[0071] The heat production and supply sector and the power sector account for more than half of the total industrial output of the power and heat production and supply industry. However, many studies have ignored this part and directly included it in power production, which may lead to an overestimation of the impact of energy transition. This invention uses a Chinese industrial enterprise database to first break down the sector into three primary sub-sectors.

[0072]

[0073]

[0074]

[0075] in and These represent the total output of heat production and supply, electricity supply, electricity production and electricity, and heat production and supply industries in region k in year p, respectively. and These represent the total industrial output value of heat production and supply, electricity supply, electricity production and electricity, and heat production and supply industries in region k from the Chinese industrial enterprise database in year p.

[0076] Since the data on Chinese industrial enterprises is only updated to 2015, while the basis for this invention's table breakdown is the 2017 input-output table for multiple regions in China, this invention needs to use the 2017 forecast data to break down the input-output table. First, this invention adjusts the proportion of the total industrial output value of heat production and supply versus electricity supply in 2015 according to the ratio of heat output (ten thousand million kilojoules) and electricity production (hundred million kilowatt-hours) in each province in 2015 and 2017, thus obtaining the forecast total industrial output value for 2017.

[0077]

[0078]

[0079] in and These represent the heating output from the energy balance sheet of province K in 2015 and 2017, respectively. and These represent the total electricity production of province K in 2015 and 2017, respectively.

[0080] Based on this, the present invention further modifies the electricity production sector proportionally by multiplying the electricity consumption and electricity price of each province in 2015 and 2017, to obtain the predicted total industrial output value of electricity production in 2017. It should be noted that different types of electricity prices vary in different regions, therefore the following processing is required:

[0081]

[0082] in This represents the total industrial output value of power technology in province k in 2015. and These represent the power generation of power technology i in province k in 2015 and 2017, respectively. and These represent the electricity prices for power technology i in province k in 2015 and 2017, respectively. Unless otherwise specified by a time subscript, all dates in the following text are 2017.

[0083] Total output breakdown of the power production sub-sectors:

[0084] After dividing the electricity and heat production and supply industry into three primary sub-sectors—heat production and supply, electricity supply, and electricity production—the study needs to further subdivide electricity production into seven sub-sectors: coal-fired power production, gas-fired power production, hydropower production, nuclear power production, wind power production, photovoltaic power production, and biomass power production. Although the grid-connected electricity prices differ for different power technologies, during the survey process for compiling the input-output table, enterprises can only provide electricity cost data and electricity consumption data, but cannot identify specific electricity consumption types. Therefore, when breaking down the electricity production sector, this invention implicitly assumes that the prices of various power technologies are consistent on the consumer side within the same region. Specifically, when dividing the total output of the electricity production sub-sectors, this invention uses the principle of regional electricity production volume for division, and the formula is as follows:

[0085]

[0086] Among them, EP j k This represents the total output of the power technology production sub-sector in region k in 2017. All other elements in the formula have been explained above.

[0087] Breakdown of investments made by primary sub-sectors and secondary sub-sectors of power production to other sectors:

[0088] Similar to the breakdown of total output, the breakdown of inputs from primary sub-sectors to other sectors is also based on the sector's total industrial output.

[0089]

[0090]

[0091]

[0092] in and EP j k-1 These represent the intermediate inputs from the heat production and supply sector in region k to sector j in region l, the intermediate inputs from the power supply sector in region k to sector j in region l, and the intermediate inputs from the power production sector in region k to sector j in region l, respectively. This represents the total intermediate input from the electricity and heat production and supply sector in region k to sector j in region l. It's important to note that sector j here does not include the three primary sub-sectors of heat production and supply, electricity supply, and electricity production. The special cases of intermediate input breakdown within the electricity and heat production and supply industry will be explained in detail later.

[0093] After breaking down the intermediate inputs from primary sub-departments to other departments, the intermediate inputs from secondary sub-departments of power production to other departments are further broken down. As mentioned earlier, enterprises cannot identify the specific type of electricity used when consuming electricity; they only face the total electricity expenditure and consumption. In reality, since electricity is used uniformly after being connected to the grid, identification itself is impossible. Therefore, this invention also breaks down the inputs from power production departments to other departments according to the principle of power generation ratio.

[0094]

[0095] in, EP represents the intermediate input from sub-sector i of power technology production in region k to sub-sector j in region l. j k-1 This represents the total intermediate input from the power production sector in region k to sector j in region l. This represents the power generation of electrical technology i in region k. The total power generation in region k was then calculated.

[0096] The final breakdown of requirements for each department:

[0097] Final demand is divided into five sectors: household consumption expenditure, government consumption expenditure, fixed capital formation, inventory changes, and exports. The breakdown of the three primary sub-sectors in final demand is done in the same way as the breakdown of total output, that is, based on the proportional relationship of total industrial output.

[0098]

[0099]

[0100]

[0101]

[0102]

[0103]

[0104]

[0105]

[0106]

[0107]

[0108]

[0109]

[0110]

[0111]

[0112]

[0113] in, This represents the household consumption expenditure in region l that comes from the heat production and supply in region k. This represents government consumption expenditure in region l that originates from heat production and supply in region k. This represents the fixed capital formation in region l derived from the heat production and supply in region k. This represents the inventory changes in region l derived from heat production and supply in region k. This indicates the export of heat production and supply originating from region k; This represents the household consumption expenditure in region l derived from electricity production in region k. This represents the government consumption expenditure in region l derived from electricity production in region k. This represents the fixed capital formation in region l derived from electricity production in region k. This represents the change in inventory in region l derived from electricity production in region k. This indicates the export of electricity produced in region k. This represents the residential consumption expenditure in region l that receives electricity from region k. This represents the government consumption expenditure in region l that comes from the electricity supply from region k. This represents the fixed capital formation in region l from the electricity supply in region k. This represents the change in inventory in region l based on electricity supply from region k. This indicates the export of electricity supplied from region k.

[0114] This invention then breaks down the secondary sub-sectors of electricity production into their final demand components. First, this invention assumes that the electricity production sector is homogeneous across the five types of final consumption, meaning that the breakdown method is the same for each final consumption. Then, based on the total output breakdown method, the final consumption of electricity production in each region is also broken down into sub-sectors using the power generation ratio.

[0115]

[0116]

[0117]

[0118]

[0119]

[0120] in, This represents the household consumption expenditure in region l originating from the i-th power technology production sub-sector in region k. This represents government consumption expenditure in region l from the i-th power technology production sub-sector in region k. This represents the fixed capital formation in region l of the i-type power technology production sub-sector originating from region k. This represents the inventory changes in region l of the i-type power technology production sub-sector originating from region k. This indicates exports from the i-power technology production sub-sector in region k; This represents the total household consumption expenditure in region l derived from the electricity production sector in region k. This represents the total government consumption expenditure in region l from the electricity production sector in region k. This represents the total fixed capital formation in region l derived from the electricity production sector in region k. This represents the total inventory change in region l originating from the power production sector in region k. This represents the total exports from the power production sector in region k.

[0121] Investment from other departments into the departments being split up:

[0122] The allocation of intermediate inputs from other sectors (hereinafter referred to as "other sectors") to the newly spun-off sub-sectors is the core of the power and heat production and supply sector split, and also the part with the greatest controversy and differences among different studies. This study comprehensively reviews the current mainstream splitting methods and makes improvements based on them.

[0123] First, this invention breaks down the intermediate inputs from other sectors to three primary sub-sectors. The breakdown of these intermediate inputs is primarily based on the total industrial output of the three sectors. However, considering the specific characteristics of the industries, this invention first needs to address several special sectors. Since heat production and supply, and electricity production are the main energy-consuming sectors, this invention assumes that the intermediate inputs of the four energy supply sectors (coal mining and processing products / oil and gas extraction products / oil, coking products, and nuclear fuel processing products / gas production and supply) are allocated only between these two sectors, and not to the electricity supply sector. The allocation of these four energy supply sectors between heat production and supply and electricity production is based on the energy consumption ratio of the two sectors.

[0124]

[0125]

[0126]

[0127] in and These represent the intermediate inputs of sector j in region l (excluding the four energy supply sectors) to the heat production and supply sector in region k, the intermediate inputs of sector j in region l (excluding the four energy supply sectors) to the electricity supply sector in region k, and the intermediate inputs of sector j in region l (excluding the four energy supply sectors) to the electricity production sector in region k.

[0128] The classification of coal mining and processing products between heat production and supply and electricity production is based on the proportion of coal consumption for heating and power generation in each province. The classification of oil and gas extraction products, as well as gas production and supply, as intermediate inputs between the two sectors is based on the proportion of natural gas consumption for heating and power generation in each province. Petroleum, coking products, and nuclear fuel processing products are classified according to the proportion of total industrial output in each province's two sectors.

[0129]

[0130]

[0131]

[0132]

[0133]

[0134]

[0135]

[0136]

[0137]

[0138]

[0139] OUTSUM k =OUTHPS k +OUTEP k (56)

[0140] in and These represent the intermediate inputs from the coal mining and processing sector in region l to the heat production and supply sector in region k, the intermediate inputs from the oil and gas extraction sector in region l to the heat production and supply sector in region k, the intermediate inputs from the gas production and supply sector in region l to the heat production and supply sector in region k, the intermediate inputs from the oil, coking products and nuclear fuel processing sector in region l to the heat production and supply sector in region k, the intermediate inputs from the coal mining and processing sector in region l to the power production sector in region k, the intermediate inputs from the oil and gas extraction sector in region l to the power production sector in region k, the intermediate inputs from the gas production and supply sector in region l to the power production sector in region k, and the intermediate inputs from the oil, coking products and nuclear fuel processing sector in region l to the power production sector in region k. and These represent the total intermediate inputs from region l for coal mining and processing products, oil and gas extraction products, gas production and supply, and petroleum, coking products, and nuclear fuel processing to the electricity and heat production and supply sector in region k. and These represent the coal consumption in heating production, the coal consumption in power production, and the total coal consumption for heating and power generation in region k, respectively. and These represent the natural gas consumption for heating production, electricity production, and the total natural gas consumption for heating and electricity production in region k, respectively; OUTHPS k OUTEPk and OUTSUM k These represent the total industrial output of region k, including heat production and supply, electricity production, and the combined output of the two sectors.

[0141] After decomposing the intermediate inputs from other sectors to the three primary sub-sectors, it is necessary to further decompose the intermediate inputs from other sectors to the power production sector into the seven secondary sub-sectors of power production. In actual economic operation, not all sectors invest in different power production sectors solely according to their output weight, especially since different power technologies have significantly different demands for materials and services. In fact, the product supply combination required for operating and maintaining a wind power plant will differ from that of a nuclear power plant or a coal-fired power plant. Therefore, the allocation of intermediate inputs from other industries to the power production sub-sectors should not be based solely on the sub-sector's power output, but should depend on how funds are used to generate the aforementioned output throughout the year. Therefore, this invention, referencing Wanliyang's research, first categorizes the sectors. Here, this invention divides all sectors into three categories: general sectors, capital sectors, and special sectors. General sectors typically refer to sectors with indirect inputs to power production or sectors whose demand differences are not significant due to variations in power generation technologies, including food manufacturing, papermaking, non-metallic and metal products manufacturing, and most of the tertiary sector. Capital-related sectors typically include sectors with direct inputs to power production, such as machinery and equipment investment and plant construction. Special sectors refer to sectors such as coal mining and processing departments that have fundamentally different needs across different power generation technologies, as shown in Table 2.

[0142] Table 2

[0143]

[0144] This invention employs different intermediate input breakdown schemes across these three sectors. The general sector typically involves long-term and continuous investment in power production, primarily in existing power technologies. Therefore, the intermediate input for the power production sub-sector is broken down based on operation and maintenance costs and installed capacity. The capital-related sector typically involves manufacturing equipment sectors or other service sectors closely related to incremental growth that directly invest in power infrastructure construction. In this invention, the total investment of the capital-related sector in the power production sub-sector is first divided according to the ratio of total operating costs to power source construction investment. The intermediate input portion determined by operating costs is broken down based on operating costs and installed capacity, while the intermediate input portion determined by power source construction investment is broken down based on the power source construction investment amount for each power technology. Finally, the two portions are combined to obtain the total breakdown of intermediate input for the capital-related sector in the power production sub-sectors.

[0145]

[0146]

[0147]

[0148]

[0149]

[0150] in, and These represent the intermediate inputs from the general sector and capital sector of region l to the i power technology production sub-sector of region k, respectively. and These represent the total intermediate inputs from the general sector and capital sector in region l to the power production sector in region k, respectively. CAP represents the operation and maintenance cost per unit installed capacity of power technology in region k; i k This represents the installed capacity of power technology i in region k. This represents the total operation and maintenance cost of power technology i in region k. This represents the total operation and maintenance cost of all power technologies in region k; and These represent the power plant construction investment for power technology i in region k and the total power plant construction investment for all power technologies, respectively.

[0151] After completing the breakdown of intermediate inputs in general and capital-related sectors, this invention requires further breakdown of intermediate inputs in the sub-sectors of the power generation sector within the special sectors. First, this invention breaks down the three sectors that specifically supply special power technologies. The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery products and services sector is fully allocated to biomass power generation; then, coal mining and processing products are fully allocated to coal-fired power generation; and finally, gas production and supply are fully allocated to gas-fired power generation. The allocation methods for other special sectors are shown in Table 3.

[0152] Table 3

[0153]

[0154]

[0155] Intermediate input handling within the electricity and heat production and supply industry:

[0156] In handling the intermediate inputs within the electricity and heat production and supply industry, this invention first processes them hierarchically from the primary sub-sectors. First, the heat production and supply sector is broken down in a general sectoral manner, first determining its intermediate inputs to the heat production and supply, electricity supply, and electricity production sectors based on the total industrial output. Then, the electricity production sub-sector is further broken down, here according to the same general sectoral principles as described above, based on operating costs. Similarly, electricity supply is also first determined based on its intermediate inputs to the three primary sub-sectors according to the total industrial output. The difference is that the breakdown of the electricity supply's intermediate inputs to electricity production within its secondary sectors is based on the power generation ratio of different electricity technologies.

[0157]

[0158] in, This represents the intermediate input from the power supply sector in region l to the power technology production sub-sector in region k. This represents the total intermediate input from the power supply sector in region l to the power production sector in region k; This represents the power generation of region k using the i-th power technology.

[0159] The breakdown of intermediate inputs for the three primary sub-sectors within the seven secondary sub-sectors of electricity production is also based on gross industrial output. The method for breaking down intermediate inputs within the secondary sub-sectors of electricity production varies across regions. First, when intermediate inputs occur within a region, this invention assumes that power plants of each power technology can generate their own electricity without purchasing power from the grid, thus achieving self-sufficiency for local electricity production. Therefore, locally, this invention allocates all intermediate inputs for a particular power technology to the production sector itself. In other regions, however, this invention allocates intermediate inputs among the electricity production sub-sectors based on the operating and maintenance costs of each power technology.

[0160]

[0161]

[0162] in This represents the intermediate input from the i-th power technology production sub-sector in region l to the j-th power technology production sub-sector in region k. This represents the total intermediate input from the power production sector in region l to the power production sector in region k.

[0163] Decomposition of added value:

[0164] The breakdown of value added is similar to that of total output and final demand. First, the value added of the three primary sub-sectors is broken down from the total value added of the electricity, heat production and supply industry based on the total industrial output.

[0165]

[0166]

[0167]

[0168] in and These represent the added value of heat production and supply, electricity supply, electricity production and electricity generation, and heat production and supply industries in region k, respectively.

[0169] Then, the present invention further decomposes the added value among the seven power technologies based on the total output ratio of each sub-sector of the power production sector.

[0170]

[0171] in EP represents the added value of the power technology production sector in region k; i k and EP k Let i represent the total output of the power technology production sector in region k and the total output of the entire power production sector, respectively.

[0172] Special handling for inter-regional ultra-high voltage power transmission:

[0173] The study assumes that the electricity transmitted from one region to another is homogeneous; that is, in the inter-provincial power transfer from region A to region B, the proportion of electricity generated by each power technology in the total transmission should be the same as the proportion of electricity generated by each technology in the power production of region A. However, this assumption has a special case. In 2017, 12 ultra-high-voltage (UHV) lines transmitted 300.8 billion kWh of electricity, of which 190 billion kWh were from renewable energy sources, accounting for 63%. UHV transmission clearly demonstrates that the electricity transmitted between specific provinces in inter-provincial UHV power transmission is not homogeneous; therefore, this invention needs to address this special case, as shown in Table 4.

[0174] Table 4

[0175]

[0176]

[0177] This invention first requires calculating the specific proportion of each power technology in inter-provincial power transmission after considering the high proportion of renewable energy power generated by ultra-high voltage (UHV) transmission. Then, based on this proportion, the allocation ratio of intermediate inputs for power production sub-sectors between specific provinces with UHV transmission relationships is adjusted.

[0178]

[0179]

[0180]

[0181] in, and These represent the amount of non-renewable electricity i and renewable electricity i transmitted from region l to region k, respectively. and These represent the generation of non-renewable electricity i and renewable electricity i in region l, respectively. and These represent the total power transmitted from region l to region k and the ultra-high voltage power, respectively. This indicates the proportion of renewable energy in the ultra-high-voltage power transmitted from region l to region k. and These represent the total power generation of four renewable power technologies (hydropower / wind power / photovoltaic power / biomass power) and three non-renewable power technologies (coal-fired power / gas-fired power / nuclear power) in region l, respectively. Equation (77) represents the breakdown formula for intermediate inputs of power production sub-sectors in provinces with ultra-high voltage transmission. and These represent the intermediate inputs of renewable electricity i from region l to sector j in region k and the intermediate inputs of non-renewable electricity i from region l to sector j in region k, respectively, between provinces transmitting ultra-high voltage power.

[0182] After completing the above departmental splitting operation, the column balance of the input-output table is usually disrupted, meaning the sum of intermediate inputs and added value does not equal the total input. Therefore, the final step requires rebalancing the input-output table. The RAS (Ratio Alignment) method, proposed by Richard Stone, is a matrix balancing method widely used for compiling I / O tables. Therefore, this invention ultimately uses the RAS method to rebalance the split input-output table.

[0183] The method for splitting the electricity and heat production and supply sector in the multi-regional input-output table according to embodiments of the present invention solves the problem that previous technologies could only split the electricity and heat production and supply sector in a single region and the splitting was incomplete. The sector splitting technology of the present invention increases the application scope of researchers using input-output tables in terms of regional and technological scenarios, and in particular, it enables the study of related issues involving both regions and electricity and heat production and supply sub-sectors, thereby improving the sector accuracy of the input-output table.

[0184] To achieve the above embodiments, such as Figure 2As shown, this embodiment also provides a splitting device 10 for the electricity, heat production and supply sector in the multi-region input-output table. The device 10 includes: a model building module 100, a first splitting module 200, a second splitting module 300, a third splitting module 400, and a splitting output module 500.

[0185] The model building module 100 is used to build a multi-region input-output model based on the input-output table. Based on the first preset total industrial output value, the electricity and heat production and supply sectors of the multi-region input-output model are broken down to obtain heat production and supply, electricity supply and primary electricity production sub-sectors.

[0186] The first splitting module 200 is used to divide the primary sub-sector of power production into secondary sub-sectors of power production according to the preset regional power production volume, and to split the intermediate input of the primary sub-sector and the secondary sub-sector of power production to the other sectors using the second preset total industrial output value and the preset power generation ratio, so as to obtain the first input splitting result.

[0187] The second splitting module 300 is used to split the final demand of the heat production and supply, power supply and power production primary sub-sectors in the multi-regional input-output model according to the third preset industrial total output value ratio, and to split the intermediate input of other sectors to the power production primary sub-sectors to the power production secondary sub-sectors to obtain the second input splitting result.

[0188] The third splitting module 400 is used to split the intermediate input of the preset department to the sub-department of power production to obtain the third input splitting result.

[0189] The splitting output module 500 is used to obtain the final splitting results of the electricity and heat production and supply sectors in the multi-region input-output model based on the first input splitting result, the second input splitting result, and the third input splitting result.

[0190] The device for splitting the electricity and heat production and supply sector in the multi-regional input-output table according to embodiments of the present invention solves the problem that previous technologies could only split the electricity and heat production and supply sector in a single region and the splitting was incomplete. The sector splitting technology of the present invention increases the application scope of researchers using input-output tables in regional and technological contexts, and in particular, enables them to study related issues involving both regions and electricity and heat production and supply sub-sectors, thereby improving the sector accuracy of the input-output table.

[0191] Furthermore, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and should not be construed as indicating or implying relative importance or implicitly specifying the number of technical features indicated. Thus, a feature defined as "first" or "second" may explicitly or implicitly include at least one of that feature. In the description of this invention, "a plurality of" means at least two, such as two, three, etc., unless otherwise explicitly specified.

[0192] In the description of this specification, the references to terms such as "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "example," "specific example," or "some examples," etc., indicate that a specific feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with that embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the present invention. In this specification, the illustrative expressions of the above terms do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the specific features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments or examples. Moreover, without contradiction, those skilled in the art can combine and integrate the different embodiments or examples described in this specification, as well as the features of different embodiments or examples.

[0193] Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it is understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the present invention. Those skilled in the art can make changes, modifications, substitutions and variations to the above embodiments within the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for splitting the electricity and heat production and supply sectors in a multi-regional input-output table, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: A multi-regional input-output model is constructed based on the input-output table. Based on the first preset total industrial output value, the electricity and heat production and supply sectors of the multi-regional input-output model are decomposed to obtain heat production and supply, electricity supply and primary electricity production sub-sectors. The primary sub-sector of power production is divided into secondary sub-sectors based on the preset regional power production volume. The intermediate inputs of the primary and secondary sub-sectors of power production to other sectors are then split using the second preset total industrial output value and the preset power generation ratio to obtain the first input split result. Based on the third preset industrial output value ratio, the final demand of the heat production and supply, power supply and power production primary sub-sectors in the multi-region input-output model is decomposed, and the intermediate input of the other sectors to the power production primary sector is decomposed to the power production secondary sub-sector, resulting in the second input decomposition result. The intermediate input amount of the pre-defined department to the sub-department of power production is divided to obtain the third input amount division result; Based on the first input breakdown result, the second input breakdown result, and the third input breakdown result, the final breakdown result of the electricity and heat production and supply sector in the multi-region input-output model is obtained; The method further includes: After completing the breakdown of intermediate inputs from primary sub-departments to other departments, the intermediate inputs from secondary sub-departments of power production to other departments are further broken down. When consuming electricity, enterprises cannot identify the specific type of electricity used, but only face the total electricity expenditure and electricity consumption. When breaking down the inputs from power production departments to other departments, the breakdown is also carried out according to the principle of power generation ratio. When dealing with the intermediate inputs within the electricity and heat production and supply industry, the process begins with the primary sub-sectors. First, the heat production and supply sector is broken down in the same way as general sectors, with its intermediate inputs to heat production and supply, electricity supply and electricity production determined based on gross industrial output. Then, further breakdown occurs within the secondary sub-sectors of electricity production. Similarly, electricity supply is first broken down based on gross industrial output, with its intermediate inputs to the three primary sub-sectors determined accordingly. The breakdown of electricity supply's intermediate inputs to electricity production within its secondary sub-sectors is based on the proportion of power generation from different electricity technologies. The breakdown of intermediate inputs in the seven sub-sectors of electricity production to the three primary sub-sectors is also based on the gross industrial output. The method of breaking down intermediate inputs within the sub-sectors of electricity production varies between regions. First, when intermediate inputs occur within a region, it is assumed that power plants of each power technology can generate their own electricity without purchasing it from the grid to meet their own needs, i.e., the local electricity production sector is self-sufficient. Therefore, all intermediate inputs of a certain power technology for the entire electricity production sector are allocated to the production sector of that power technology itself. In other regions, intermediate inputs among the sub-sectors of electricity production are allocated based on the operation and maintenance costs of each power technology.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The multi-regional input-output model is as follows: in, It is the identity matrix. yes Regional total final demand column vector.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The expressions for the primary sub-sectors of heat production and supply, and electricity supply and production, obtained by breaking down the electricity and heat production and supply sectors of the multi-regional input-output model based on the first preset gross industrial output value are as follows: in, , , and They represent area Total annual output of the heat production and supply, electricity supply, electricity production and electricity, and heat production and supply industries. , , and These respectively represent data from the Chinese industrial enterprise database. area The total industrial output value of the heat production and supply, electricity supply, electricity production and electricity, and heat production and supply industries.

4. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The expression for breaking down the intermediate input from the primary power production sub-sector to other sectors is as follows: in, , and They represent The region's heat production and supply sector to regional Intermediate inputs of the department The local power supply department to regional Intermediate inputs of the department and The region's power production sector to regional Intermediate inputs of the department Then it means The region's electricity and heat production and supply sectors to regional Total intermediate inputs for the department.

5. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The expression for decomposing the intermediate inputs of the other departments by the secondary sub-sector of power production is as follows: in, express regional Power technology production sub-sector to regional Intermediate inputs of the department express The region's power production sector to regional Total intermediate inputs of the department express regional Electricity generation by power technology Then it was calculated Total electricity generation in the region.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The expression for decomposing the final demand of the primary sub-sectors of heat production and supply, and electricity supply and production in the multi-regional input-output model based on the proportional relationship of the third preset total industrial output value is as follows: in, express The region comes from Residential consumption expenditure on regional heat production and supply express The region comes from Government consumption expenditure on regional heat production and supply express The region comes from Fixed capital formation in regional heat production and supply express The region comes from Changes in regional heat production and supply inventory. Indicates originating from Export of regional heat production and supply express The region comes from Residential consumption expenditure on electricity production in the region express The region comes from Government spending on electricity production in the region express The region comes from Fixed capital formation in regional electricity production, express The region comes from Changes in regional electricity production inventory Indicates that it comes from The region's electricity production exports express The region comes from Residential consumption expenditure on regional electricity supply express The region comes from Government spending on regional electricity supply express The region comes from Fixed capital formation for regional power supply express The region comes from Changes in regional electricity supply inventory. Indicates that it comes from The export of electricity supply to the region.

7. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The expression for breaking down the intermediate inputs of the other departments to the primary power production department into the secondary sub-departments of power production is as follows: in, express The region comes from regional Residential consumption expenditure in the power technology production sub-sector express The region comes from regional Government consumption expenditure in the power technology production sub-sector express The region comes from regional Fixed capital formation in the power technology production sub-sector express The region comes from regional Inventory changes in the power technology production sub-sector Indicates that it comes from regional Exports from the power technology production sub-sector express The region comes from Total household consumption expenditure in the region's electricity production sector express The region comes from Total government consumption expenditure on the region's electricity production sector express The region comes from Total fixed capital formation in the region's power production sector express The region comes from Changes in total inventory in the region's power production sector Indicates that it comes from Total exports of the region's electricity production sector.

8. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The breakdown expression for the intermediate inputs from other sectors to the primary sub-sectors of heat production and supply, and electricity supply and production is as follows: in, , and These respectively represent the four energy supply sectors, excluding Other departments in the region Department to Intermediate inputs for the region’s heat production and supply sector, excluding the four energy supply sectors Other departments in the region Department to Intermediate inputs of the region's power supply sector and, in addition to the four energy supply sectors Other departments in the region Department to Intermediate inputs for the region's power production sector.

9. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The expression for obtaining the third input breakdown result by splitting the intermediate input of the preset department into the secondary sub-departments of power production is as follows: in, and They represent Regional Non-renewable electricity in regional power transmission and renewable electricity The transmission capacity, and They represent Regional non-renewable electricity and renewable electricity The amount of electricity generated; and They represent Regional Total electricity transmitted in the region and ultra-high voltage electricity, express Regional The proportion of renewable energy in ultra-high-voltage power transmitted over the region. and They represent The total power generation of the four renewable power technologies and the three non-renewable power technologies in the region. and These respectively represent the provinces where ultra-high voltage transmission occurs. Regional renewable electricity right area Intermediate inputs of the department and Regional non-renewable electricity right area Intermediate inputs for the department.

10. A device for splitting the electricity, heat production and supply sectors in a multi-regional input-output table using the method described in claim 1, characterized in that, include: The model building module is used to build a multi-regional input-output model based on the input-output table, and to break down the electricity and heat production and supply sectors of the multi-regional input-output model based on the first preset total industrial output value to obtain heat production and supply, electricity supply and primary electricity production sub-sectors. The first splitting module is used to divide the primary sub-sector of power production into secondary sub-sectors of power production according to the preset regional power production volume, and to split the intermediate input of the primary sub-sector and the secondary sub-sector of power production to the other sectors using the second preset total industrial output value and the preset power generation ratio, so as to obtain the first input splitting result. The second splitting module is used to split the final demand of the heat production and supply, power supply and power production primary sub-sectors in the multi-regional input-output model according to the third preset industrial total output value ratio, and to split the intermediate input of the other sectors to the power production primary sub-sectors to the power production secondary sub-sectors to obtain the second input splitting result. The third splitting module is used to split the intermediate input amount of the preset department to the power production sub-department to obtain the third input amount splitting result. The splitting output module is used to obtain the final splitting results of the electricity and heat production and supply sectors in the multi-region input-output model based on the first input splitting result, the second input splitting result, and the third input splitting result.

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