A lightning warning method and device

Abstract

The application discloses a thunder and lightning early warning method and device, wherein the thunder and lightning early warning method comprises the following steps: acquiring atmospheric electric field data; performing difference on the atmospheric electric field data to obtain a jump amplitude of the atmospheric electric field; comparing the jump amplitude of the atmospheric electric field with an electric field jump threshold to obtain a comparison relationship; triggering timing when the jump amplitude of the atmospheric electric field is greater than the electric field jump threshold; and calculating a thunder and lightning early warning probability according to current atmospheric electric field data and the triggered timing by using a probability formula obtained by fitting a composite function of a hyperbolic tangent function and a power function. The thunder and lightning early warning method integrates the atmospheric electric field value and the information of atmospheric electric field jump into a probability function formula, is more scientific and rigorous, makes the thunder and lightning early warning result more intuitive and specific, and is more operable. The thunder and lightning early warning device comprises a metal flat plate antenna, an integration circuit, a data acquisition and data processing module, a communication module and an upper computer module, and can realize the thunder and lightning early warning method.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of lightning warning technology, and in particular to a lightning warning method and device. Background Technology

[0002] Lightning disasters are among the most common natural hazards. Many important locations, such as oil depots, important warehouses, and major sporting events, must be protected from lightning strikes. Lightning warning devices are often installed in these locations to issue timely warnings and implement appropriate safety measures if lightning is detected as an impending event. Currently, the most widely used lightning warning device is the atmospheric electric field meter, which monitors the atmospheric electric field at its installation location in real time and issues warnings based on real-time data. Traditional atmospheric electric field-based lightning warning methods issue warnings when the atmospheric electric field value exceeds a set threshold (e.g., 3kV / m). However, in many cases, even when the atmospheric electric field value exceeds the threshold by more than double, no lightning occurs, meaning that relying solely on atmospheric electric field values ​​for lightning warnings can easily result in false alarms. To improve the accuracy of lightning warnings, the detection of atmospheric electric field transitions has been added as a warning condition. However, these methods only provide a general, non-specific prediction of whether lightning will occur, and are sometimes impractical. Summary of the Invention

[0003] In view of this, the purpose of this invention is to overcome the shortcomings of existing lightning warning technologies, and to use the probability function method to calculate the probability of lightning occurrence, so as to provide a scientific basis for lightning warning, making lightning warning more specific and operable.

[0004] A first aspect of the present invention provides a lightning warning method, comprising the following steps:

[0005] Acquire atmospheric electric field data;

[0006] Generally, atmospheric electric field data are obtained through an atmospheric electric field meter (device);

[0007] The atmospheric electric field data is differentially analyzed to obtain the amplitude of the atmospheric electric field jump.

[0008] The magnitude of the atmospheric electric field jump amplitude is compared with the electric field jump threshold to obtain a comparison relationship, wherein the electric field jump threshold is obtained by pre-setting;

[0009] Whether to trigger timing is determined based on the comparison relationship, that is, timing is triggered when the amplitude of the atmospheric electric field jump is greater than the electric field jump threshold;

[0010] The probability of a lightning warning is calculated based on current atmospheric electric field data and the timing of the trigger.

[0011] Furthermore, the calculation of the lightning warning probability based on the current atmospheric electric field data and the triggered timing specifically involves calculating the lightning warning probability of lightning occurrence A using the following probability function formula:

[0012]

[0013] In the formula, the probability function is a composite function, the outermost function tanh() is a hyperbolic tangent function, the independent variable x is the atmospheric electric field value, which is a known condition, α is the lightning jump factor, which is a real number greater than 1 when the electric field jump is detected to be greater than the jump threshold and the timing is triggered, and a real number less than 1 if no timing is triggered; β is the electric field scale transformation factor, which is used to adjust the electric field magnification.

[0014] Furthermore, the timing triggered by an electric field jump greater than the jump threshold has a time interval limitation. If the time interval is exceeded, the timing is reset to zero and becomes invalid. When an electric field jump greater than the jump threshold is detected again, the timing is retried.

[0015] A second aspect of the present invention provides a lightning warning device, comprising:

[0016] Metal flat panel antenna, used to sense atmospheric electric fields;

[0017] An integrating circuit, whose input is connected to a metal flat panel antenna, is used to condition the atmospheric electric field signal, restore the atmospheric electric field, and reproduce the atmospheric electric field signal in the form of voltage.

[0018] The data acquisition and data processing module, whose input is connected to the output of the integrator circuit, realizes analog-to-digital conversion of atmospheric electric field voltage signals, signal comparison, trigger timing, and calculation of lightning warning probability;

[0019] The communication module enables the transmission of atmospheric electric field data and lightning warning probability data;

[0020] The host computer module receives atmospheric electric field data and lightning warning probability data, enables human-computer interaction, displays atmospheric electric field data and lightning warning probability data, and provides real-time alarms.

[0021] The principle of this invention is that the stronger the atmospheric electric field, the greater the probability of lightning. This probability is a conditional probability with the atmospheric electric field as a known condition. Therefore, the probability function of lightning is a function with the atmospheric electric field as the independent variable, and its threshold is [0,1]. Thus, the hyperbolic tangent function can be used to fit this probability function. Because the atmospheric electric field can range from ±50kV / m during thunderstorms, which is very large, a scaling transformation, i.e., numerical compression, is needed for the atmospheric electric field independent variable. Since the hyperbolic tangent function curve is convex upwards near the origin in the first quadrant, it does not quite match the fact that the probability of lightning is very low when the electric field value is very low. Therefore, it should be changed to a concave function curve. This can be achieved by combining the hyperbolic tangent function with a power function to make the probability function curve concave near the origin in the first quadrant. The exponent of the power function can be set to 2, which also allows negative electric field values ​​to be converted to positive values ​​after being quadratically transformed by the power function. Because the probability of lightning increases significantly when there is a sudden change in the atmospheric electric field value, it is necessary to integrate the information about the sudden change in the atmospheric electric field value into the probability function. Therefore, the final lightning warning probability for lightning event A is:

[0022]

[0023] In the formula, the probability function is a composite function, the outermost function tanh() is a hyperbolic tangent function, the independent variable x is the atmospheric electric field value, which is a known condition, α is the lightning jump factor, which is a real number greater than 1 when a jump in the electric field is detected that exceeds the jump threshold, and a real number less than 1 if no jump is detected; β is the electric field scale transformation factor, used to adjust the electric field magnification. The timing triggered by a jump in the electric field exceeding the jump threshold has a time interval limitation. If the time interval is exceeded, the timing is reset to zero and becomes invalid. When another jump in the electric field is detected that exceeds the jump threshold, the timing is retried.

[0024] The technical solution provided by this invention has the following effects:

[0025] (1) The probability of lightning occurrence is given in the form of a probability function, which provides more specific data and a more scientific method.

[0026] (2) It makes full use of atmospheric electric field data and information on atmospheric electric field jumps, integrating the two into a probability function, which is concise, clear and easy to operate. Attached Figure Description

[0027] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the lightning warning method of the present invention;

[0028] Figure 2 The graph shows the probability function of lightning warning when no change in atmospheric electric field is detected.

[0029] Figure 3 A graph showing the probability function of lightning warning when an atmospheric electric field jump exceeds a threshold.

[0030] Figure 4 A functional block diagram of a lightning warning device according to one embodiment;

[0031] Figure 5 A schematic diagram of an integrating circuit for conditioning an electric field signal, as one embodiment.

[0032] Figure 6 One implementation method is a data acquisition and data processing module. Detailed Implementation

[0033] The following section provides a more detailed explanation of the lightning warning methods and devices, with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0034] This invention provides a lightning warning method, such as... Figure 1 The lightning warning method includes the following steps:

[0035] Step S10: Acquire atmospheric electric field data. Generally, this is done using an atmospheric electric field meter (device).

[0036] Step S20: Calculate the difference between the atmospheric electric field data to obtain the amplitude of the atmospheric electric field jump.

[0037] Furthermore, assuming the acquired electric field signal is x(k), where k is the time variable, by calculating the difference between the electric field values ​​before and after the acquisition, we obtain its differential signal (i.e., the jump in the atmospheric electric field) as follows:

[0038] Δx(k) = x(k) - x(k-1)

[0039] Step S30: Compare the magnitude of the atmospheric electric field jump amplitude with the electric field jump threshold to obtain a comparison relationship. The electric field jump threshold is obtained by pre-setting, and can generally be set to 400V / m.

[0040] Step S40: Based on the comparison relationship, determine whether to trigger the timing.

[0041] Specifically, timing is triggered when the amplitude of the atmospheric electric field jump exceeds the electric field jump threshold. Furthermore, the duration of the timing can be preset; it can be half an hour, one hour, or other durations, with the optimal duration determined through observation of extensive experimental data. When the timing expires, it is reset to zero. If a new timing trigger occurs, the timing restarts.

[0042] Step S50: Calculate the probability of a lightning warning based on the current atmospheric electric field data and the triggered timing.

[0043] Specifically, the probability of a lightning warning for lightning occurrence A is calculated using the probability function formula:

[0044]

[0045] In the formula, the probability function is a composite function, with the outermost function tanh() being a hyperbolic tangent function. The independent variable x is the atmospheric electric field value, which is a known condition. α is the lightning jump factor; when a jump in the electric field is detected to be greater than the jump threshold, it is a real number greater than 1, typically set to 2. If no jump is detected, α is a real number less than 1, typically set to 0.2. β is the electric field scale transformation factor, used to adjust the electric field magnification, typically set to 10000. Furthermore, the optimal values ​​for α and β can be obtained through observation of a large amount of experimental data.

[0046] Figure 2 This is a graph showing the probability function of lightning warnings when no atmospheric electric field jumps are detected. From... Figure 2 It can be seen that: when the electric field is 2000V / m, the probability of lightning is 0.008; when the electric field is 3000V / m, the probability of lightning is 0.0180; and when the electric field is 10000V / m, the probability of lightning is 0.1973.

[0047] Figure 3 This is a graph showing the probability function of lightning warning when an atmospheric electric field jump exceeds a threshold. From... Figure 3 The data shows that the probability of lightning is 0.0798 when the electric field is 2000 V / m, 0.1780 when the electric field is 3000 V / m, and 0.9640 when the electric field is 10000 V / m. The probability function curve is S-shaped, indicating that the probability of lightning is low when the electric field value is less than 2000 V / m; the probability increases significantly when the electric field value is greater than 4000 V / m; and approaches 1 when the electric field value is greater than 10000 V / m.

[0048] The aforementioned lightning warning method integrates atmospheric electric field values ​​and information on atmospheric electric field transitions into a single probability function formula. This scientific and rigorous approach makes lightning warning results more intuitive, specific, and operable.

[0049] This invention also provides a lightning warning device, such as... Figure 4 The lightning warning device includes: a metal flat panel antenna 101, an integrating circuit 102, a data acquisition and data processing module 103, a communication module 104, and a host computer module 105.

[0050] The metal flat panel antenna 101 is used to acquire the atmospheric electric field and convert the atmospheric electric field signal (in V / m) into a voltage signal (in V).

[0051] The input of the integrating circuit 102 is connected to the metal flat panel antenna 101, such as... Figure 5 As shown, the atmospheric electric field signal is conditioned to make the obtained electric field voltage signal consistent with the original electric field signal.

[0052] The data acquisition and data processing module 104 is composed of an embedded mixed-signal processing microcontroller, such as... Figure 6 As shown, an STM32F103 chip can be used, which includes an ADC unit 1031 to perform analog-to-digital conversion on the output voltage signal of the integrator circuit 102; a CPU unit 1033, a RAM unit 1034, and a Flash unit 1035 to form an embedded microcontroller system to realize data processing, including calculating the difference of the collected electric field data, comparing the difference signal with the transition threshold, triggering timing, and calculating the probability of lightning warning; and an I / O unit 1032 as a data communication interface that can output the corresponding collected and processed data.

[0053] Furthermore, the probability of lightning warning can be calculated in real time, or the probability function curve can be pre-calculated and stored in the flash memory of the microcontroller, and the probability function value can be obtained by looking up a table.

[0054] The communication module 104 transmits data from the data acquisition and processing module 103 to the host computer module 105 for human-computer interaction. The communication module 104 can transmit data via wired or wireless means.

[0055] The host computer module 105 can display the collected and processed data, and can also issue lightning warning signals in real time according to the probability of lightning warning, prompting people to take corresponding lightning response measures.

Claims

1. A lightning early warning method, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: Acquire atmospheric electric field data; The atmospheric electric field data is differentially analyzed to obtain the amplitude of the atmospheric electric field jump. The magnitude of the atmospheric electric field jump amplitude is compared with the electric field jump threshold to obtain a comparison relationship, wherein the electric field jump threshold is obtained by pre-setting; Whether to trigger timing is determined based on the comparison relationship, that is, timing is triggered when the amplitude of the atmospheric electric field jump is greater than the electric field jump threshold; The probability of a lightning warning is calculated based on current atmospheric electric field data and the triggered timing. The calculation of the lightning warning probability based on current atmospheric electric field data and the triggered timing specifically involves calculating the probability of lightning occurrence using the following probability function formula. A Probability of lightning warning: In the formula, the probability function is a composite function, the outermost function tanh() is the hyperbolic tangent function, and the independent variable is... x It is the value of the atmospheric electric field, which is a known condition. α It is the lightning jump factor. When an electric field jump greater than the jump threshold is detected, the trigger timer is a real number greater than 1. If no timer is triggered, the trigger timer is a real number less than 1. ꞵ It is the electric field scale transformation factor, used to adjust the electric field magnification.

2. A lightning warning device for implementing the lightning warning method of claim 1, characterized in that, include: Metal flat panel antenna, used to sense atmospheric electric fields; An integrating circuit, whose input is connected to a metal flat panel antenna, is used to condition the atmospheric electric field signal, restore the atmospheric electric field, and reproduce the atmospheric electric field signal in the form of voltage. The data acquisition and processing module, whose input is connected to the output of the integrator circuit, realizes analog-to-digital conversion of voltage, signal comparison, trigger timing, and calculation of lightning warning probability; The communication module enables the transmission of atmospheric electric field data and lightning warning probability data; The host computer module receives atmospheric electric field data and lightning warning probability data, enables human-computer interaction, displays atmospheric electric field data and lightning warning probability data, and provides real-time alarms.

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