An epidemic monitoring method

Abstract

The application provides an epidemic situation monitoring method, which combines a regional simulation model established according to a digital twin concept with an SEIR model to create an epidemic situation tracking simulation model; based on basic data information, primary epidemic situation category information, initial infected person basic information and initial exposed person basic information, the secondary epidemic situation category information of personnel in a preset management area data information is updated through the regional simulation model; based on the updated secondary epidemic situation category information, the tertiary epidemic situation category information of personnel in the preset management area data information is updated through the SEIR model; the association in a real social network changes as new relationships are formed, and old relationships are constantly removed, thereby avoiding the problem that in a static contact network, once an association exists between two individuals, the association will remain unchanged, and the epidemic situation tracking management method can consider individual heterogeneity and spatial structure.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to monitoring methods, and more specifically, to an epidemic monitoring method. Background Technology

[0002] How to track and manage the epidemic is an important issue facing China and the world, especially tracking the spread of pathogens with long incubation periods.

[0003] Currently, the classic SEIR model is mainly used both domestically and internationally to predict the spread of pathogens with incubation periods. This model divides the epidemic population into four categories: susceptible individuals (S) (who have not been previously exposed to the pathogen), exposed individuals (E) (who have been infected with the pathogen but have not shown related symptoms), infected individuals (I) (who have been infected with the pathogen and are infectious), and recovered individuals (R) (who have successfully cleared the infection). However, the classic SEIR model only predicts the number of each epidemic category at a future time by modeling at the population level, and assumes that each epidemic category is uniformly mixed, with the same probability of contact between any individuals, and the same dynamic nature of inter-individual interactions (e.g., changes in contact with different individuals, duration of contact, or whether or not masks are worn). This does not conform to the networked structure of interpersonal contact and the dynamic nature of human-to-human interactions in reality.

[0004] Therefore, there is an urgent need in this field for an epidemic tracking and management method that can take into account individual heterogeneity and spatial structure and avoid the situation in static contact networks where the association between two individuals remains unchanged. Summary of the Invention

[0005] This invention provides an epidemic monitoring method that combines a regional simulation model based on the concept of digital twins with an SEIR model for epidemic tracking and management. This method enables the relationships in a real social network to change as new relationships are formed, while old relationships are continuously removed. This avoids the problem in static contact networks where the relationship between two individuals remains unchanged. The epidemic tracking and management method can take into account individual heterogeneity and spatial structure.

[0006] This invention discloses an epidemic monitoring method, comprising the following steps: A regional simulation model was established based on the concept of digital twins. Based on the SEIR model and the aforementioned regional simulation model, an epidemic tracking simulation model is constructed; Obtain information on the epidemic level, basic information on initial infected persons, and basic information on initial exposed persons in the region where the management area is located; The system includes preset management area data information, which includes basic data information and epidemic parameter data information. The basic data information includes building structure information, basic information of personnel within the management area, and travel demand information of personnel within the management area. The basic information of personnel within the management area includes personnel identity information and personnel epidemic category information. The personnel epidemic category information includes primary epidemic category information, secondary epidemic category information, and tertiary epidemic category information. The primary epidemic category information includes the primary epidemic category and its corresponding start time. The secondary epidemic category information includes the secondary epidemic category and its corresponding start time. The tertiary epidemic category information includes the tertiary epidemic category and its corresponding start time. The primary epidemic category includes susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals. The secondary epidemic category includes susceptible individuals, contacts, exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals. The tertiary epidemic category includes susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals. Based on the aforementioned basic data information, primary epidemic category information, initial infected person basic information, and initial exposed person basic information, the secondary epidemic category information of personnel within the management area in the preset management area data information is updated through the regional simulation model. Based on the updated secondary epidemic category information, the tertiary epidemic category information of people within the management area in the preset management area data information is updated through the SEIR model; Based on the updated three-level epidemic category information, the primary epidemic category information in the basic data information of the preset management area data information is updated.

[0007] The term includes susceptible individuals who have not been previously exposed to the pathogen, i.e., those who are not infected with the pathogen; exposed individuals who have been infected with the pathogen but have not shown related symptoms; infected individuals who are infected with the pathogen and are infectious; and recovered individuals who have successfully cleared the infection. The SEIR model receives the updated secondary epidemic category and the corresponding start time point. Based on the cycle from exposed individuals to infected individuals and the cycle from infected individuals to recovered individuals in the epidemic parameter information database, it updates the identity information of exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals in the secondary epidemic category information. After processing the updated information, it outputs the tertiary epidemic category information. The SEIR model also processes the received contact information, directly converting contacts in the secondary epidemic category into susceptible individuals in the tertiary epidemic category. Preferably, it also includes statistical processing of the three-level epidemic category information output by the SEIR model, outputting the specific number of susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals at a specific time point; Preferably, the epidemic parameter information database includes information on the cycle of exposure to infection, the cycle of infection to recovery, the probability of transmission between susceptible individuals and infected individuals within a unit of time, the filtration efficiency of masks worn by infected individuals, the filtration efficiency of masks worn by contacts, and the relative ability of infected individuals to transmit the virus. The epidemic level information of the region includes: epidemic control status information of different areas within the management area, and information on mask-wearing requirements within the management area.

[0008] The advantages of this invention over existing technologies are that it manages basic data information within the management area, including building structure information, basic information of personnel within the management area, and travel demand information of personnel within the management area; it processes the basic data information within the management area using the area simulation model to output updated secondary epidemic category information, enabling the epidemic tracking and management method to consider individual heterogeneity and spatial structure; it tracks the changes in the epidemic category of each individual within the management area by combining their actual travel demand information and actual location, and outputs this information periodically. By establishing a regional simulation model based on the concept of digital twins, we can realize that the connections in real social networks change as new connections are formed and old connections are continuously removed, thus avoiding the problem in static contact networks where the connection between two individuals remains unchanged. It also solves the problem that the classic SEIR model only predicts the number of each epidemic category at a certain future moment from the group level by modeling; it realizes the ability to predict and output the epidemic category of each specific member in the management area at different times.

[0009] Furthermore, the regional simulation model includes a personnel travel tracking module. Based on the basic data information, the basic information of the initial infected persons, and the basic information of the initial exposed persons, the personnel travel tracking module obtains the travel trajectory information of personnel within the management area.

[0010] Furthermore, the travel trajectory information of personnel within the management area includes personnel identity information, primary epidemic category information, and the location information of personnel within the management area at different time periods.

[0011] Furthermore, the personnel travel tracking module obtains personnel identity information and primary epidemic category information from basic data information, and at the same time obtains the latest basic information of initial infected persons and initial exposed persons. The basic information of initial infected persons includes the identity information of the initial infected persons; the basic information of initial exposed persons includes the identity information of the initial exposed persons. Determine whether there is any overlap between the personal identification information of the initial infected person, the personal identification information of the initial exposed person, and the personnel identification information in the basic data information of the preset management area; Therefore, the personnel travel tracking module initially updates the primary epidemic category information corresponding to the overlapping personnel identity information; the personnel travel tracking module processes the personnel travel demand information within the management area based on the initially updated primary epidemic category information to obtain the personnel travel trajectory information within the management area.

[0012] The beneficial effect of adopting the above-mentioned further technical solution is that the personnel travel tracking module can simulate and predict the places and locations that each specific person in the management area passes through at different time periods.

[0013] Furthermore, the regional simulation model also includes an epidemic tracking module, which obtains updated secondary epidemic category information for people within the management area based on the travel trajectory information of people within the management area.

[0014] Furthermore, the epidemic tracking module includes a contact network module, which inputs the personnel identity information and corresponding primary epidemic category information from the personnel travel trajectory information within the management area, as well as the location information of personnel within the management area at different time periods, into the contact network module to obtain primary contact information that appeared in the same time and space as the infected person; The primary contact information includes: the primary contact's identity information, the time period of the primary contact, and the location of the primary contact.

[0015] The beneficial effect of adopting the above-mentioned further technical solution is that, by combining the travel trajectory information of people in the region output by the epidemic tracking module with the identity information of the infected person, the information of primary contacts who came into contact with the infected person at different time periods can be output.

[0016] Furthermore, the contact network module receives building structure information within the management area and divides the buildings within the management area into several levels based on their structural functions. The number of contact network segments K corresponding to different building levels is preset; The calculation method for the number of primary contacts M in buildings of different levels is as follows: M = K / 2, where K is an even number; when K / 2 ≥ N, M = N, and when K / 2 < N, M = K / 2. The random connection rule is to take people in the building at different time periods as nodes, randomly form a ring around all the nodes in the building, take the infected person as a fixed node, and connect to two adjacent nodes and randomly connect to non-adjacent nodes. Each node connected to an infected person represents the identity information of the primary contact. The buildings are classified into several levels: Level 1 density zone, Level 2 density zone, and Level 3 density zone. The buildings are classified according to their function and area, and the population density within the space is analyzed. Preferably, the Level 1 density zone includes classrooms, dormitories, homes, offices, and elevators; the Level 2 density zone includes canteens and cinemas; and the Level 3 density zone includes stadiums and train stations. The beneficial effects of adopting the above-mentioned further technical solution are that the contact network module can identify the number of primary contacts who have been in contact with infected persons at different times and locations, as well as their specific personal information; and it avoids the problem in static contact networks where once there is a connection between two individuals, this connection will remain unchanged, thus realizing that the connections in real social networks change as new relationships are formed, and old relationships are constantly removed.

[0017] Furthermore, the epidemic tracking module also includes an exposed person determination module; the exposed person determination module includes a mask wearing probability formula and a primary contact infection confirmation formula; The exposure identification module uses a mask-wearing probability formula to confirm mask-wearing information for primary infected individuals and contacts. The exposed person identification module obtains exposed person information through the primary contact infection confirmation formula; The exposed person identification module obtains updated secondary epidemic category information for people within the management area.

[0018] Furthermore, the formula for the probability of wearing a mask is as follows: t0 is the time when all personnel in the management area begin to wear masks; t1 is any time when personnel in the management area are wearing masks; t1 - t0 is the duration from the time personnel in the management area begin to wear masks to any time when masks have been worn. p t The probability of people within the managed area wearing masks at a specific time; The formula for confirming infection among primary contacts: When primary infected individuals and close contacts all wear masks ; When primary infected individuals and close contacts are not wearing masks ; When a person with a primary infection wears a mask ; When none of the contacts are wearing masks ; pTrans represents the probability of transmission between a susceptible individual and an infected individual within a unit of time. m s The filtration efficiency of the mask worn by the infected person; m r The filtration efficiency of the masks worn by those in contact with the infected person; r represents the relative ability of an infected person to transmit the virus; t represents the duration of contact between the contact and the infected person within a certain time period. When p ≥ 95%, the primary contact is identified as an exposed person; when p < 95%, the primary contact is identified as a contact.

[0019] The beneficial effect of adopting the above-mentioned further technical solution is that the exposed person determination module can determine whether the primary contact person has been infected with the pathogen and become an exposed person; the primary contact person who has not been infected with the pathogen is a contact person; and the contact person is directly converted into a susceptible person when processed by the SEIR model. The exposure identification module includes a mask-wearing probability formula and a primary contact infection confirmation formula. It enables analysis based on the dynamic nature of interactions between individuals, that is, to confirm whether each different contact has been infected with pathogens based on changes in contact with different individuals, contact duration, whether or not masks are worn, and contact time. It realizes that the associations in real social networks change as new relationships are formed and old relationships are continuously removed, and confirms whether specific individuals have been infected with pathogens at different times, in different states, and in different locations. Detailed Implementation

[0020] To make the objectives, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, the various aspects of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to specific embodiments. However, these specific embodiments are only used to illustrate the present invention and do not constitute any limitation on the scope of protection and the substantive content of the present invention.

[0021] This embodiment provides a method for epidemic monitoring, including the following steps: Obtain information on the epidemic level, basic information on initial infected persons, and basic information on initial exposed persons in the region where the management area is located; The epidemic level information of the region includes: epidemic control status information of different building structures within the management area, and information on mask-wearing requirements within the management area.

[0022] The system includes preset management area data information, which includes basic data information and epidemic parameter data information. The basic data information includes building structure information, basic information of personnel within the management area, and travel demand information of personnel within the management area. The basic information of personnel within the management area includes personnel identity information and personnel epidemic category information. The personnel epidemic category information includes primary epidemic category information, secondary epidemic category information, and tertiary epidemic category information. The primary epidemic category information includes the primary epidemic category and its corresponding start time. The secondary epidemic category information includes the secondary epidemic category and its corresponding start time. The tertiary epidemic category information includes the tertiary epidemic category and its corresponding start time. The primary epidemic category includes susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals. The secondary epidemic category includes susceptible individuals, contacts, exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals. The tertiary epidemic category includes susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals. The epidemic parameter information database includes: the cycle information of exposed individuals turning into infected individuals, the cycle information of infected individuals turning into recovered individuals, the transmission probability information of susceptible individuals and infected individuals in contact within a unit of time, the filtration efficiency information of infected individuals wearing masks, the filtration efficiency information of contacts wearing masks, and the relative ability of infected individuals to transmit the virus. The term includes susceptible individuals who have not been previously exposed to the pathogen, i.e., those who are not infected with the pathogen; exposed individuals who have been infected with the pathogen but have not shown related symptoms; infected individuals who are infected with the pathogen and are infectious; and recovered individuals who have successfully cleared the infection. A regional simulation model is established based on the concept of digital twins; an epidemic tracking simulation model is constructed by combining the regional simulation model with the SEIR model; Based on the aforementioned basic data information, primary epidemic category information, initial infected person basic information, and initial exposed person basic information, the secondary epidemic category information of personnel within the management area in the preset management area data information is updated through the regional simulation model. The regional simulation model includes a personnel travel tracking module. Based on the basic data information, the basic information of the initial infected persons, and the basic information of the initial exposed persons, the personnel travel tracking module obtains the travel trajectory information of personnel within the management area. The travel trajectory information of people within the management area includes personal identity information, primary epidemic category information, and the location information of people within the management area at different time periods. The personnel travel tracking module obtains personnel identity information and initial epidemic category information from basic data information, and at the same time obtains the latest basic information of initial infected persons and initial exposed persons. The basic information of initial infected persons includes the identity information of the initial infected persons; the basic information of initial exposed persons includes the identity information of the initial exposed persons. Determine whether there is any overlap between the personal identification information of the initial infected person, the personal identification information of the initial exposed person, and the personnel identification information in the basic data information of the preset management area; Therefore, the personnel travel tracking module initially updates the primary epidemic category information corresponding to the overlapping personnel identity information; the personnel travel tracking module processes the personnel travel demand information within the management area based on the initially updated primary epidemic category information to obtain the personnel travel trajectory information within the management area; thereby realizing the simulation and prediction of the places and locations that each specific person in the management area passes through at different time periods through the personnel travel tracking module.

[0023] The regional simulation model also includes an epidemic tracking module, which obtains updated secondary epidemic category information of people in the management area based on the travel trajectory information of people in the management area; the epidemic tracking module includes a contact network module, which inputs the identity information of people in the travel trajectory information of people in the management area and their corresponding primary epidemic category information, as well as the location information of people in the management area at different time periods into the contact network module, to obtain primary contact information of people who appeared in the same space and time as the infected person. The primary contact information includes: the primary contact's identity information, the time period of the primary contact, and the location of the primary contact.

[0024] The contact network module receives building structure information within the managed area and classifies the buildings in the managed area into several levels according to their structural functions. The number of contact network segments K corresponding to different building levels is preset; The calculation method for the number of primary contacts M in buildings of different levels is as follows: M = K / 2, where K is an even number; when K / 2 ≥ N, M = N, and when K / 2 < N, M = K / 2. The random connection rule is to take people in the building at different time periods as nodes, randomly form a ring around all the nodes in the building, take the infected person as a fixed node, and connect to two adjacent nodes and randomly connect to non-adjacent nodes. Each node connected to an infected person represents the identity information of the primary contact. The building has several density levels: Level 1 density zone, Level 2 density zone, and Level 3 density zone; The buildings are classified according to their location function and area, and the density of people within the location is analyzed.

[0025] The epidemic tracking module also includes an exposed person identification module; the exposed person identification module includes a mask wearing probability formula and a primary contact infection confirmation formula; The exposure identification module uses a mask-wearing probability formula to confirm mask-wearing information for primary infected individuals and contacts. The exposed person identification module obtains exposed person information through the primary contact infection confirmation formula; The updated secondary epidemic category information of personnel within the management area is obtained through the exposed person identification module; The formula for the probability of wearing a mask: , t 0 represents the date on which all personnel within the managed area began wearing masks; t 1 For a specific date at a certain moment for personnel within the managed area; t 1- t 0 represents the duration at which personnel within the managed area have been wearing masks at a specific time. p t The probability of people within the managed area wearing masks at a specific time; The formula for confirming infection among primary contacts: When primary infected individuals and close contacts all wear masks ; When primary infected individuals and close contacts are not wearing masks ; When a person with a primary infection wears a mask ; When none of the contacts are wearing masks ; pTrans represents the probability of transmission between a susceptible individual and an infected individual within a unit of time. m s The filtration efficiency of the mask worn by the infected person; m r The filtration efficiency of the masks worn by those in contact with the infected person; r represents the relative ability of an infected person to transmit the virus; t represents the duration of contact between the contact and the infected person within a certain time period. When p ≥ 95%, the primary contact is confirmed as an exposed person; when p When the rate is less than 95%, the primary contact is identified as a contact. The exposed person determination module is used to determine whether primary contacts have been infected with the pathogen and become exposed persons; primary contacts who have not been infected with the pathogen are considered contacts; and their contacts are directly converted into susceptible persons when processed by the SEIR model. Based on the updated secondary epidemic category information, the tertiary epidemic category information of people within the management area in the preset management area data information is updated through the SEIR model; Based on the updated three-level epidemic category information, the primary epidemic category information in the basic data information of the preset management area data information is updated.

[0026] The SEIR model receives the updated secondary epidemic category and the corresponding start time point of the epidemic category. Based on the cycle of exposed persons turning into infected persons and the cycle of infected persons turning into recovered persons in the epidemic parameter information database, it updates the identity information of exposed persons, infected persons, and recovered persons in the secondary epidemic category information. After processing the updated information, it outputs the tertiary epidemic category information. The SEIR model processes the received contact information and directly converts the contacts in the secondary epidemic category into susceptible persons in the tertiary epidemic category. Statistical processing is performed on the three-level epidemic category information output by the SEIR model to output the specific number of susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals at a specific time point; The management method utilizes basic data information within the managed area, including building structure information, basic information of personnel, and travel demand information of personnel within the managed area. It processes this basic data information using a regional simulation model to update the secondary epidemic category information, enabling the epidemic tracking and management method to consider individual heterogeneity and spatial structure. By tracking each person within the managed area and combining their actual travel demand information with their actual location, the method obtains changes in the epidemic category for each individual and outputs this information periodically. By establishing a regional simulation model based on the concept of digital twins, we can realize that the connections in real social networks change as new connections are formed and old connections are continuously removed, thus avoiding the problem in static contact networks where the connection between two individuals remains unchanged. It also solves the problem that the classic SEIR model only predicts the number of each epidemic category at a certain future moment from the group level by modeling; it realizes the ability to predict and output the epidemic category of each specific member in the management area at different times.

[0027] A method for tracking and managing the epidemic, taking universities as an example, is as follows: The building structure information within the area includes the location, function, and area of ​​all buildings within the university; the basic information of personnel within the management area includes information on teachers, students, and service personnel entering the university; and the travel demand information of personnel within the management area includes information on the expected activities of personnel (teachers, students, and service personnel entering the university) at different times and locations within the university (such as the class schedules and locations for students and teachers, and the time and location for students and teachers to dine). The building structures are classified according to their function and area, and the density of people within the premises is analyzed. The first-level density areas include classrooms, dormitories, offices, and elevators; the second-level density areas include canteens and cinemas; and the third-level density areas include gymnasiums and other entertainment and leisure venues.

[0028] The present invention has been described above with reference to specific embodiments. These specific embodiments are merely exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the scope of protection of the present invention. Those skilled in the art can make various modifications, changes, or substitutions without departing from the essence of the present invention. Therefore, various equivalent variations made according to the present invention still fall within the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for epidemic monitoring, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: A regional simulation model was established based on the concept of digital twins. Based on the SEIR model and the aforementioned regional simulation model, an epidemic tracking simulation model is constructed; Obtain information on the epidemic level, basic information on initial infected persons, and basic information on initial exposed persons in the region where the management area is located; The system includes preset management area data information, which includes basic data information and epidemic parameter data information. The basic data information includes building structure information, basic information of personnel within the management area, and travel demand information of personnel within the management area. The basic information of personnel within the management area includes personnel identity information and personnel epidemic category information. The personnel epidemic category information includes primary epidemic category information, secondary epidemic category information, and tertiary epidemic category information. The primary epidemic category information includes the primary epidemic category and its corresponding start time. The secondary epidemic category information includes the secondary epidemic category and its corresponding start time. The tertiary epidemic category information includes the tertiary epidemic category and its corresponding start time. The primary epidemic category includes susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals. The secondary epidemic category includes susceptible individuals, contacts, exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals. The tertiary epidemic category includes susceptible individuals, exposed individuals, infected individuals, and recovered individuals. Based on the aforementioned basic data information, primary epidemic category information, initial infected person basic information, and initial exposed person basic information, the secondary epidemic category information of personnel within the management area in the preset management area data information is updated through the regional simulation model. Based on the updated secondary epidemic category information, the tertiary epidemic category information of people within the management area in the preset management area data information is updated through the SEIR model; Based on the updated three-level epidemic category information, the primary epidemic category information in the basic data of the preset management area data is updated. The regional simulation model also includes an epidemic tracking module, which obtains updated secondary epidemic category information for people within the managed area based on their travel trajectory information. The epidemic tracking module also includes an exposed person identification module; the exposed person identification module includes a mask wearing probability formula and a primary contact infection confirmation formula; The exposure identification module uses a mask-wearing probability formula to confirm mask-wearing information for primary infected individuals and contacts. The exposed person identification module obtains exposed person information through the primary contact infection confirmation formula; The exposed person identification module obtains updated secondary epidemic category information for people within the management area.

2. The epidemic monitoring method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The regional simulation model includes a personnel travel tracking module. Based on the basic data information, the basic information of the initial infected persons, and the basic information of the initial exposed persons, the personnel travel tracking module obtains the travel trajectory information of personnel within the management area.

3. The epidemic monitoring method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The travel trajectory information of people within the management area includes personal identity information, primary epidemic category information, and the location information of people within the management area at different time periods.

4. The epidemic monitoring method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The personnel travel tracking module obtains personnel identity information and initial epidemic category information from basic data information, and at the same time obtains the latest basic information of initial infected persons and initial exposed persons. The basic information of initial infected persons includes the identity information of the initial infected persons; the basic information of initial exposed persons includes the identity information of the initial exposed persons. Determine whether there is any overlap between the personal identification information of the initial infected person, the personal identification information of the initial exposed person, and the personnel identification information in the basic data information of the preset management area; Therefore, the personnel travel tracking module initially updates the primary epidemic category information corresponding to the overlapping personnel identity information; the personnel travel tracking module processes the personnel travel demand information within the management area based on the initially updated primary epidemic category information to obtain the personnel travel trajectory information within the management area.

5. The epidemic monitoring method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The epidemic tracking module includes a contact network module, which inputs the personnel identity information and corresponding primary epidemic category information from the travel trajectory information of personnel in the management area, as well as the location information of personnel in the management area at different time periods, into the contact network module to obtain the primary contact information of those who appeared in the same time and space as the infected person. The primary contact information includes: the primary contact's identity information, the time period of the primary contact, and the location of the primary contact.

6. The epidemic monitoring method according to claim 5, characterized in that, The contact network module is established based on a small-world network model; The contact network module obtains building structure information within the management area from basic data information within the management area, and establishes several contact networks based on the building structure information within the management area. The contact network module receives the personnel identity information and the location information of the personnel in the management area at different time periods from the travel trajectory information of the personnel in the management area, and obtains the number N of nodes contained in each contact network at different time periods; The number of line segments generated by connecting any node to other nodes is K; The contact network module identifies the contact network that infected individuals entered at different times based on the primary epidemic category information in the travel trajectory information of people within the managed area and the location information of people within the managed area at different times. The number of primary contacts M, the time period of primary contact, and the location of primary contact are determined based on the number of line segments K that the infected person entered within the contact network at different time periods; the identity information of the primary contacts is confirmed through random connection rules.

7. The epidemic monitoring method according to claim 6, characterized in that, The contact network module receives building structure information within the managed area and classifies the buildings within the managed area into several levels according to their structural functions. The number of contact network segments K corresponding to different building levels is preset; The calculation method for the number of primary contacts M in buildings of different levels is as follows: M = K / 2, where K is an even number; when K / 2 ≥ N, M = N, and when K / 2 < N, M = K / 2. The random connection rule is to take people in the building at different time periods as nodes, randomly form a ring around all the nodes in the building, take the infected person as a fixed node, and connect to two adjacent nodes and randomly connect to non-adjacent nodes. Each node connected to an infected person represents the identity information of the primary contact. The building is classified into several levels: Level 1 density zone, Level 2 density zone, and Level 3 density zone.

8. The epidemic monitoring method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The formula for the probability of wearing a mask: t 0 marks the moment when all personnel within the managed area begin wearing masks; t 1 represents any moment within the region; t 1- t 0 represents the duration of time from the moment when mask-wearing was first implemented to any other time within the management area; p t The probability of people within the managed area wearing masks at a specific time; The formula for confirming infection of primary contacts is as follows: When both the primary infected person and the contact are wearing masks... ; When primary infected individuals and close contacts are not wearing masks ; When a person with a primary infection wears a mask ; When none of the contacts are wearing masks ; pTrans represents the probability of transmission between a susceptible individual and an infected individual within a unit of time. m s The filtration efficiency of the mask worn by the infected person; m r The filtration efficiency of the masks worn by those in contact with the infected person; r represents the relative ability of an infected person to transmit the virus; t represents the duration of contact between the contact and the infected person within a certain time period. When p ≥ 95%, the primary contact is confirmed as an exposed person; When p < 95%, the primary contact is identified as a contact.

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