Power plant reconstruction planning method, device and equipment considering uncertainty of peak regulation demand and storage medium

Abstract

The present application relates to a kind of considering the peak shaving demand uncertainty thermal power unit reconstruction method, comprising: based on the predicted value of load and wind power output, peak shaving demand is obtained by analysis;Analysis of a variety of regulating resources, obtain the peak shaving capacity of a variety of regulating resources, the variety of regulating resources includes conventional thermal power unit, after reconstruction thermal power unit and energy storage;Based on peak shaving demand and peak shaving capacity, the relationship constraint of peak shaving demand and peak shaving capacity is established, the actual operation scene of power system is simulated using the method of stochastic production simulation, and the planning operation result is obtained.The present application includes the peak shaving capacity constraint of system in peak shaving demand, the reconstruction cost of thermal power unit is included in the objective function of planning result, the reliability of power system operation scheduling and the economy of planning configuration are realized, promote wind power reliable grid connection while reducing the reconstruction cost of thermal power unit, and obtain the decision scheme of thermal power unit reconstruction based on this.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of power system dispatching, planning and operation technology, and in particular to a method, apparatus, equipment and storage medium for the retrofitting of thermal power units that takes into account the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand. Background Technology

[0002] With the large-scale grid connection of new energy sources, the randomness, intermittency, and large prediction errors of wind power, as well as the characteristics of wind power generation, run counter to the reliability requirements of power system generation, bringing severe peak-shaving pressure to the power system. Planning the transformation of thermal power units while considering the peak-shaving role of energy storage systems can improve the system's peak-shaving capacity and has a positive effect on promoting the consumption of new energy. Therefore, studying the uncertain peak-shaving demand after the large-scale grid connection of wind power and applying it to planning problems is of great significance for improving the reliable grid connection capability of large-scale wind power.

[0003] Current research on the retrofitting of thermal power units primarily employs deterministic reserve configuration methods. While these models reserve a certain capacity for wind power uncertainties, they may fail to keep pace with load fluctuations, increasing the operational risks of the power system. Furthermore, these models neglect wind power uncertainties and cannot readjust reserve configurations based on wind curtailment or load shedding, resulting in redundant reserved spinning reserves and conservative optimization results. There is also limited research on effectively leveraging the units' peak-shaving flexibility and timely tracking of load changes. In summary, current research rarely considers wind power uncertainties in the peak-shaving capabilities of conventional and retrofitted thermal power units, nor analyzes their combined peak-shaving capabilities with energy storage, thus failing to maximize the reliability and economic efficiency of system resource planning. Summary of the Invention

[0004] To address the aforementioned technical problems, this application is proposed. Embodiments of this application provide a method, apparatus, equipment, and storage medium for retrofitting thermal power units that considers the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand. This enables reliable operation planning of the power system, thereby improving the economy and reliability of system operation.

[0005] According to one aspect of this application, a method for retrofitting thermal power units considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand is provided, comprising the following sequential steps:

[0006] Based on the predicted values ​​of load and wind power output, the peak-shaving demand is analyzed.

[0007] By analyzing various regulation resources, the peak-shaving capacity of these resources is obtained. These various regulation resources include conventional thermal power units, retrofitted thermal power units, and energy storage.

[0008] Based on peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity, a constraint on the relationship between peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity is established. A stochastic production simulation method is used to simulate the actual operation scenario of the power system and obtain the planned operation results.

[0009] The analysis of peak-shaving demand based on predicted load and wind power output specifically includes the following steps:

[0010] (1a) Analysis of prediction errors for load and wind power output:

[0011] Let the load forecast value at the initial time of time period t be... Its error confidence interval at a certain confidence level is expressed as follows: Let the wind power forecast value at the initial time of time t be... Its error confidence interval at a certain confidence level is expressed as follows: Let the expected net load at the initial time of time period t be... Its error confidence interval at a certain confidence level is expressed as follows:

[0012] P t N- =-(P t l- +P t x+ (1)

[0013] P t N+ =P t l+ +P t x- (2)

[0014] In the formula, and These are the lower and upper bounds of the net load forecast error, respectively. and These are the lower and upper bounds of the load forecasting error, respectively. and These are the lower and upper bounds of the wind power prediction error, respectively.

[0015] (1b) Establish peak-shaving capacity requirements:

[0016]

[0017]

[0018] In the formula, This represents the system's upward peak-shaving capacity demand during time period t; P t p This represents the system's downward peak-shaving capacity demand during time period t;

[0019] (1c) Establish peak shaving rate requirements:

[0020]

[0021]

[0022] In the formula, P t p+ P represents the system's peak-shaving upscaling rate demand during time period t; t p- This represents the system's peak-shaving and downsizing rate requirement during time period t.

[0023] The analysis of multiple regulation resources to obtain their peak-shaving capabilities specifically includes the following steps:

[0024] (2a) Establishing the regulation capacity of conventional thermal power units and modified thermal power units:

[0025]

[0026]

[0027]

[0028]

[0029] In the formula, and R g,t These refer to the upward and downward adjustment capabilities of conventional thermal power units, respectively. and R f,t These refer to the upward and downward adjustment capabilities of the modified thermal power unit; and These represent the upward and downward ramp rates of a conventional thermal power unit (g), respectively. and These represent the upward and downward ramp rates of the modified thermal power unit f, respectively; τ is the dispatch time interval; u g,t This represents the operating status of a conventional thermal power unit; u f,t The operating status of the modified thermal power unit; P g,min and P g,max Minimum and maximum technical output of conventional thermal power units; and These represent the minimum and maximum technical output of the thermal power unit f after its modification; P g,t and These represent the output of a conventional thermal power unit g during time period t, and the output of a modified thermal power unit f during time period t, respectively; x f,t For the decision of whether or not to retrofit thermal power units for flexibility;

[0030] (2b) Establishing peak-shaving capacity for energy storage:

[0031]

[0032]

[0033] In the formula, and R s,t These represent the upward and downward adjustment capabilities of energy storage during time period t, respectively. and These represent the energy storage charging power and discharging power during time period t, respectively. and E represents the maximum charging power and maximum discharging power of energy storage during time period t, respectively. t E represents the state of charge of the energy storage at time t. max E represents the rated capacity of the energy storage. min η is the minimum charge capacity for energy storage. c and η d These refer to the energy storage charging and discharging efficiency, respectively.

[0034] The process of establishing a constraint relationship between peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity based on peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity, and simulating actual power system operation scenarios using stochastic production simulation to obtain the planned operation results specifically includes the following steps:

[0035] (3a) Production operation simulation model, establishing the objective function:

[0036] C = C th +C pun +C f (13)

[0037]

[0038]

[0039]

[0040] In the formula, C represents the total operating cost of the system; C th Costs of power generation and start-up / shutdown for conventional and modified thermal power units; N g and N f The numbers of conventional thermal power units and the numbers of retrofitted thermal power units; C pun For wind curtailment penalty and load shedding penalty; C g (P g,t )and C represents the power generation cost function of a conventional thermal power unit and the power generation cost function of a retrofitted thermal power unit. f The cost of retrofitting thermal power units; and These are the start-up and shutdown cost coefficients for conventional thermal power units, respectively. and These are the start-up and shutdown cost coefficients for the modified thermal power units, respectively; λ x and λ d These are the unit wind curtailment penalty cost and the unit load shedding penalty cost, respectively; ΔP t x and These represent the curtailed wind power and the load shedding power within time period t, respectively; d is the investment cost recovery factor; E f To upgrade the capacity of thermal power plants, λ f Cost of unit modification; Ω F The set of thermal power units to be upgraded; T is the dispatching period; x f,t For the decision variable of whether or not to retrofit thermal power units for flexibility; u g,t This represents the operating status of a conventional thermal power unit; u f,t The operating status of the modified thermal power unit;

[0041] (3b) Establish power balance constraints:

[0042]

[0043] In the formula, P g,t This represents the output of a conventional thermal power unit g during time period t. To measure the output of thermal power unit f during time period t after flexibility modification; P x,t For wind power output during time period t; L t For time period load demand; and These represent the energy storage charging power and discharging power during time period t, respectively.

[0044] (3c) Establish constraints on new energy output:

[0045] 0≤u x,t P x,t ≤P x,max (18)

[0046] In the formula, u x,t Power output status for new energy sources; P x,max To contribute the most to new energy;

[0047] (3d) Establish constraints for thermal power units:

[0048] P g,min ≤u g,t P g,t ≤P g,max (19)

[0049]

[0050]

[0051]

[0052]

[0053] In the formula, and These represent the minimum and maximum gradeability limits of conventional thermal power units (g), respectively; P g,t-1 Let g be the output of thermal power unit g in time period t-1; and These are the minimum and maximum gradeability limits of thermal power unit f before flexibility modification; and These represent the minimum and maximum gradeability limits of the thermal power unit f after flexibility modifications; P g,min and P g,max The minimum and maximum technical outputs of conventional thermal power units; P g,t and These represent the output of a conventional thermal power unit g in time period t and the output of a modified thermal power unit f in time period t, respectively. and These are the minimum and maximum technical outputs of thermal power unit f after its modification; The minimum technical output of thermal power unit f before flexibility modification;

[0054] (3e) Establish energy storage operation constraints:

[0055]

[0056]

[0057]

[0058] E min ≤E t ≤E max (27)

[0059]

[0060] E T =E0 (29)

[0061] In the formula, and E0 and E1 represent the charging and discharging states of energy storage s during time period t, respectively. Both are binary variables, and the value is 1 when the energy is in that state. T These represent the initial state of charge and the final state of charge during the energy storage scheduling cycle, respectively; E t E represents the state of charge of the energy storage at time t. max E represents the rated capacity of the energy storage. min η is the minimum charge capacity for energy storage. cand η d These are the energy storage charging and discharging efficiencies, respectively. and These represent the energy storage charging power and discharging power during time period t, respectively. and These represent the maximum charging power and maximum discharging power of energy storage during time period t, respectively.

[0062] (3f) Establish peak-shaving capacity response constraints and peak-shaving rate response constraints:

[0063]

[0064]

[0065]

[0066]

[0067] In the formula, P t up and P t down These represent the adjustable capacity and the adjustable capacity within time period t, respectively. and These are, respectively, the flexibility response capability for upward peak shaving and the flexibility response capability for downward peak shaving; The upward adjustment capability of conventional thermal power units; To improve the upward adjustment capability of the modified thermal power unit; The upward adjustment capability of energy storage during time period t; R s,t The downward adjustment capability of energy storage during time period t. R g,t For conventional thermal power units, the downward adjustment capability of g is... R f,t To improve the downward adjustment capability of the modified thermal power unit; and P t N+ These are the lower and upper bounds of the net load forecast error, respectively; ΔP t x and These represent the wind curtailment power and load shedding power within time period t, respectively; Ω G This refers to the overall collection of conventional thermal power units and flexible retrofitted thermal power units.

[0068] According to another aspect of this application, a thermal power unit retrofit device considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand is provided, comprising:

[0069] (1) Peak shaving demand analysis unit, used to analyze the uncertain peak shaving demand of large-scale wind power grid-connected systems;

[0070] (2) Unit and energy storage peak shaving capacity unit, used to analyze conventional thermal power units, modified thermal power units and energy storage peak shaving capacity;

[0071] (3) Simulation and planning unit, used to simulate the actual operation scenario of the power system using stochastic production simulation method, and obtain the planned operation results.

[0072] The peak-shaving demand analysis unit includes:

[0073] The load and wind power output prediction error analysis module is used to analyze the prediction errors of load and wind power output.

[0074] The peak-shaving capacity demand establishment module is used to establish peak-shaving capacity demand.

[0075] The peak shaving rate requirement establishment module is used to establish peak shaving rate requirements.

[0076] The generating unit and energy storage peak-shaving capacity unit include:

[0077] The module for establishing the regulation capacity of conventional and retrofitted thermal power units is used to establish the regulation capacity of conventional and retrofitted thermal power units.

[0078] The energy storage peak-shaving capacity establishment module is used to establish the energy storage peak-shaving capacity.

[0079] The simulation and planning unit includes:

[0080] The objective function establishment unit is used for the production operation simulation model to establish the objective function:

[0081] The power balance constraint establishment module is used to establish power balance constraints.

[0082] The new energy output constraint establishment module is used to establish new energy output constraints.

[0083] The thermal power unit constraint establishment module is used to establish thermal power unit constraints.

[0084] The energy storage operation constraint establishment module is used to establish energy storage operation constraints.

[0085] The module for establishing peak-shaving capacity response constraints and peak-shaving rate response constraints is used to establish peak-shaving capacity response constraints and peak-shaving rate response constraints.

[0086] According to another aspect of this application, an electronic device is provided, comprising:

[0087] Processor; and

[0088] The memory stores computer program instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the processor to perform the thermal power unit retrofit planning method described above, which takes into account the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand.

[0089] According to another aspect of this application, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, having stored thereon computer program instructions that, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform the thermal power unit retrofit planning method as described above, taking into account the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand.

[0090] As can be seen from the above technical solution, the beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows: First, the peak-shaving demand proposed in the present invention quantifies the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand by considering the uncertainty of wind power output prediction error, and can be reserved as needed when thermal power units are configured for standby; Second, in the peak-shaving capacity analysis proposed in the present invention, conventional thermal power units, retrofitted thermal power units, and energy storage systems are all included in the constraint considerations, realizing the participation of multiple types of resources in the system in peak shaving, further improving the system's bidirectional adjustment peak-shaving capacity, and promoting the absorption of wind power; Third, the present invention incorporates peak-shaving demand into the system's peak-shaving capacity constraints and incorporates the cost of thermal power unit retrofitting into the objective function of the planning results, realizing the reliability of power system operation and scheduling and the economy of planning configuration, promoting reliable wind power grid connection while reducing the cost of thermal power unit retrofitting, and based on this, obtaining a decision scheme for thermal power unit retrofitting. Attached Figure Description

[0091] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the method of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0092] like Figure 1 As shown, a method for retrofitting thermal power units considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand includes the following sequential steps:

[0093] Based on the predicted values ​​of load and wind power output, the peak-shaving demand is analyzed. The peak-shaving demand of the wind power grid-connected system comes from the power capacity demand and ramp-up rate demand generated by the fluctuation of net load between adjacent time periods, namely the peak-shaving capacity demand and the peak-shaving rate demand.

[0094] By analyzing various regulation resources, the peak-shaving capacity of these resources is obtained. These various regulation resources include conventional thermal power units, retrofitted thermal power units, and energy storage.

[0095] Based on peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity, a constraint on the relationship between peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity is established. A stochastic production simulation method is used to simulate the actual operation scenario of the power system and obtain the planned operation results.

[0096] The analysis of peak-shaving demand based on predicted load and wind power output specifically includes the following steps:

[0097] (1a) Analysis of prediction errors for load and wind power output:

[0098] Let the load forecast value at the initial time of time period t be... Its error confidence interval at a certain confidence level is expressed as follows: Let the wind power forecast value at the initial time of time t be... Its error confidence interval at a certain confidence level is expressed as follows: Let the expected net load at the initial time of time period t be... Its error confidence interval at a certain confidence level is expressed as follows:

[0099] P t N- =-(P t l- +P t x+ (1)

[0100] P t N+ =P t l+ +P t x- (2)

[0101] In the formula, and These are the lower and upper bounds of the net load forecast error, respectively. and These are the lower and upper bounds of the load forecasting error, respectively. and These are the lower and upper bounds of the wind power prediction error, respectively.

[0102] (1b) Establish peak-shaving capacity requirements:

[0103]

[0104]

[0105] In the formula, This represents the system's upward peak-shaving capacity demand during time period t; P t p This represents the downward peak-shaving capacity demand of the system during time period t. Peak-shaving capacity demand is the demand for the system's peak-shaving response capacity due to the uncertain power range of the net load within a single study period. The upward and downward peak-shaving capacity demands of the system are equal to the sum of the upper and lower bounds of the net load prediction error of each node during that period, respectively.

[0106] (1c) Establish peak shaving rate requirements:

[0107]

[0108]

[0109] In the formula, P t p+ P represents the system's peak-shaving upscaling rate demand during time period t; t p- This represents the system's peak load reduction rate demand during time period t. The peak load reduction rate demand is generated based on the expected ramp-up of net load between adjacent time periods, reflecting the rate response demand caused by the uncertainty of peak load reduction in the system during the study period.

[0110] The analysis of multiple regulation resources to obtain their peak-shaving capabilities specifically includes the following steps:

[0111] (2a) Establishing the regulation capacity of conventional thermal power units and modified thermal power units:

[0112]

[0113]

[0114]

[0115]

[0116] In the formula, and R g,t These refer to the upward and downward adjustment capabilities of conventional thermal power units, respectively. and R f,t These refer to the upward and downward adjustment capabilities of the modified thermal power unit; and These represent the upward and downward ramp rates of a conventional thermal power unit (g), respectively. and These represent the upward and downward ramp rates of the modified thermal power unit f, respectively; τ is the dispatch time interval; u g,t This represents the operating status of a conventional thermal power unit; u f,t The operating status of the modified thermal power unit; P g,min and P g,max Minimum and maximum technical output of conventional thermal power units; and These represent the minimum and maximum technical output of the thermal power unit f after its modification; P g,t and These represent the output of a conventional thermal power unit g during time period t, and the output of a modified thermal power unit f during time period t, respectively; x f,t For the decision of whether or not to retrofit thermal power units for flexibility;

[0117] During the peak-shaving phase of conventional power units, the output of thermal power units operates between the maximum output value and the minimum output value for conventional peak shaving. The output of retrofitted thermal power units can be further reduced. The upward peak-shaving capacity of a unit is mainly limited by two factors: the upper limit of the unit's capacity and the maximum upward adjustment rate of the unit's output power. The downward peak-shaving capacity of a unit is mainly limited by two factors: the minimum output level for stable combustion and the maximum downward adjustment rate of the unit's output power.

[0118] (2b) Establishing peak-shaving capacity for energy storage:

[0119]

[0120]

[0121] In the formula, and R s,t These represent the upward and downward adjustment capabilities of energy storage during time period t, respectively. and These represent the energy storage charging power and discharging power during time period t, respectively. and E represents the maximum charging power and maximum discharging power of energy storage during time period t, respectively. t E represents the state of charge of the energy storage at time t. max E represents the rated capacity of the energy storage. min η is the minimum charge capacity for energy storage. c and η d These refer to the energy storage charging and discharging efficiency, respectively.

[0122] The process of establishing a constraint relationship between peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity based on peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity, and simulating actual power system operation scenarios using stochastic production simulation to obtain the planned operation results specifically includes the following steps:

[0123] (3a) Production operation simulation model, establishing the objective function:

[0124] C = C th +C pun +C f (13)

[0125]

[0126]

[0127]

[0128] In the formula, C represents the total operating cost of the system; C th Costs of power generation and start-up / shutdown for conventional and modified thermal power units; N g and N fThe numbers of conventional thermal power units and the numbers of retrofitted thermal power units; C pun For wind curtailment penalty and load shedding penalty; C g (P g,t )and C represents the power generation cost function of a conventional thermal power unit and the power generation cost function of a retrofitted thermal power unit. f The cost of retrofitting thermal power units; and These are the start-up and shutdown cost coefficients for conventional thermal power units, respectively. and These are the start-up and shutdown cost coefficients for the modified thermal power units, respectively; λ x and λ d These are the unit wind curtailment penalty cost and the unit load shedding penalty cost, respectively; ΔP t x and These represent the curtailed wind power and the load shedding power within time period t, respectively; d is the investment cost recovery factor; E f To upgrade the capacity of thermal power plants, λ f Cost of unit modification; Ω F The set of thermal power units to be upgraded; T is the dispatching period; x f,t For the decision variable of whether or not to retrofit thermal power units for flexibility; u g,t This represents the operating status of a conventional thermal power unit; u f,t The operating status of the modified thermal power unit;

[0129] (3b) Establish power balance constraints:

[0130]

[0131] In the formula, P g,t This represents the output of a conventional thermal power unit g during time period t. To measure the output of thermal power unit f during time period t after flexibility modification; P x,t For wind power output during time period t; L t For time period load demand; and These represent the energy storage charging power and discharging power during time period t, respectively.

[0132] (3c) Establish constraints on new energy output:

[0133] 0≤u x,t P x,t ≤P x,max (18)

[0134] In the formula, u x,t Power output status for new energy sources; P x,max To contribute the most to new energy;

[0135] (3d) Establish constraints for thermal power units:

[0136] P g,min ≤u g,t P g,t ≤P g,max (19)

[0137]

[0138]

[0139]

[0140]

[0141] In the formula, and These represent the minimum and maximum gradeability limits of conventional thermal power units (g), respectively; P g,t-1 Let g be the output of thermal power unit g in time period t-1; and These are the minimum and maximum gradeability limits of thermal power unit f before flexibility modification; and These represent the minimum and maximum gradeability limits of the thermal power unit f after flexibility modifications; P g,min and P g,max The minimum and maximum technical outputs of conventional thermal power units; P g,t and These represent the output of a conventional thermal power unit g in time period t and the output of a modified thermal power unit f in time period t, respectively. and These are the minimum and maximum technical outputs of thermal power unit f after its modification; The minimum technical output of thermal power unit f before flexibility modification;

[0142] (3e) Establish energy storage operation constraints:

[0143]

[0144]

[0145]

[0146] E min ≤E t ≤E max (27)

[0147]

[0148] E T =E0 (29)

[0149] In the formula, and E0 and E1 represent the charging and discharging states of energy storage s during time period t, respectively. Both are binary variables, and the value is 1 when the energy is in that state. T These represent the initial state of charge and the final state of charge during the energy storage scheduling cycle, respectively; E t E represents the state of charge of the energy storage at time t. max E represents the rated capacity of the energy storage. min η is the minimum charge capacity for energy storage. c and η d These are the energy storage charging and discharging efficiencies, respectively. and These represent the energy storage charging power and discharging power during time period t, respectively. and These represent the maximum charging power and maximum discharging power of energy storage during time period t, respectively.

[0150] (3f) Establish peak-shaving capacity response constraints and peak-shaving rate response constraints:

[0151]

[0152]

[0153]

[0154]

[0155] In the formula, P t up and P t down These represent the adjustable capacity and the adjustable capacity within time period t, respectively. and These are, respectively, the flexibility response capability for upward peak shaving and the flexibility response capability for downward peak shaving; The upward adjustment capability of conventional thermal power units; To improve the upward adjustment capability of the modified thermal power unit; The upward adjustment capability of energy storage during time period t; R s,t The downward adjustment capability of energy storage during time period t. R g,t For conventional thermal power units, the downward adjustment capability of g is... R f,t To improve the downward adjustment capability of the modified thermal power unit; and P t N+ These are the lower and upper bounds of the net load forecast error, respectively; ΔP t x and These represent the wind curtailment power and load shedding power within time period t, respectively; ΩG This refers to the overall collection of conventional thermal power units and flexible retrofitted thermal power units.

[0156] According to another aspect of this application, a thermal power unit retrofit device considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand is provided, comprising:

[0157] (1) Peak shaving demand analysis unit, used to analyze the uncertain peak shaving demand of large-scale wind power grid-connected systems;

[0158] (2) Unit and energy storage peak shaving capacity unit, used to analyze conventional thermal power units, modified thermal power units and energy storage peak shaving capacity;

[0159] (3) Simulation and planning unit, used to simulate the actual operation scenario of the power system using stochastic production simulation method, and obtain the planned operation results.

[0160] The peak-shaving demand analysis unit includes:

[0161] The load and wind power output prediction error analysis module is used to analyze the prediction errors of load and wind power output.

[0162] The peak-shaving capacity demand establishment module is used to establish peak-shaving capacity demand.

[0163] The peak shaving rate requirement establishment module is used to establish peak shaving rate requirements.

[0164] The generating unit and energy storage peak-shaving capacity unit include:

[0165] The module for establishing the regulation capacity of conventional and retrofitted thermal power units is used to establish the regulation capacity of conventional and retrofitted thermal power units.

[0166] The energy storage peak-shaving capacity establishment module is used to establish the energy storage peak-shaving capacity.

[0167] The simulation and planning unit includes:

[0168] The objective function establishment unit is used for the production operation simulation model to establish the objective function:

[0169] The power balance constraint establishment module is used to establish power balance constraints.

[0170] The new energy output constraint establishment module is used to establish new energy output constraints.

[0171] The thermal power unit constraint establishment module is used to establish thermal power unit constraints.

[0172] The energy storage operation constraint establishment module is used to establish energy storage operation constraints.

[0173] The module for establishing peak-shaving capacity response constraints and peak-shaving rate response constraints is used to establish peak-shaving capacity response constraints and peak-shaving rate response constraints.

[0174] According to another aspect of this application, an electronic device is provided, comprising:

[0175] Processor; and

[0176] The memory stores computer program instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the processor to perform the thermal power unit retrofit planning method described above, which takes into account the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand.

[0177] According to another aspect of this application, a computer-readable storage medium is provided, having stored thereon computer program instructions that, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform the thermal power unit retrofit planning method as described above, taking into account the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand.

[0178] In summary, this invention incorporates peak-shaving demand into the system's peak-shaving capacity constraints and includes the cost of retrofitting thermal power units into the objective function of the planning results. This achieves both the reliability of power system operation and scheduling and the economy of planning and configuration, promotes reliable wind power grid connection while reducing the cost of retrofitting thermal power units, and based on this, obtains a decision-making scheme for the retrofitting of thermal power units.

Claims

1. A method for retrofitting thermal power units considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand, characterized in that: The method includes the following steps: Based on the predicted values ​​of load and wind power output, the peak-shaving demand is analyzed. By analyzing various regulation resources, the peak-shaving capacity of these resources is obtained. These various regulation resources include conventional thermal power units, retrofitted thermal power units, and energy storage. Based on peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity, a constraint relationship between peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity is established. A stochastic production simulation method is used to simulate actual power system operating scenarios to obtain planned operation results; specifically including: Production operation simulation model, establishing the objective function: In the formula, C represents the total operating cost of the system; Costs of power generation and start-up / shutdown for conventional and modified thermal power units; and This refers to the number of conventional thermal power units and the number of retrofitted thermal power units. For wind curtailment penalties and load shedding penalties; and For conventional thermal power unit power generation cost function and modified thermal power unit power generation cost function; The cost of retrofitting thermal power units; and These are the start-up and shutdown cost coefficients for conventional thermal power units, respectively. and These are the start-up and shutdown cost coefficients for the modified thermal power units, respectively. and These are the unit wind curtailment penalty cost and the unit load shedding penalty cost, respectively. and These represent the curtailed wind power and the load shedding power within time period t, respectively; d is the investment cost recovery coefficient. To upgrade the capacity of thermal power plants, The cost of unit renovation; The set of thermal power units to be upgraded; T is the scheduling cycle; For the decision of whether or not to retrofit thermal power units for flexibility; This represents the operating status of a conventional thermal power unit. This shows the operating status of the modified thermal power unit.

2. The method for retrofitting thermal power units considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand according to claim 1, characterized in that: The analysis of peak-shaving demand based on predicted load and wind power output specifically includes the following steps: (1a) Analysis of prediction errors for load and wind power output: Set time period t The initial load forecast value is Under a certain confidence level, its error confidence interval is expressed as [ , - [; Set time period] t The initial wind power forecast value is At a certain confidence level, its error confidence interval is expressed as [- ,- [; Set time period] t The expected net load at the initial moment is At a certain confidence level, its error confidence interval is expressed as [- ,- ]; In the formula, and These are the lower and upper bounds of the net load forecast error, respectively. and These are the lower and upper bounds of the load forecasting error, respectively. and These are the lower and upper bounds of the wind power prediction error, respectively. (1b) Establish peak-shaving capacity requirements: In the formula, express t The system's peak-shaving capacity demand during certain time periods; express t The system's peak-shaving capacity demand during certain time periods; (1c) Establish peak shaving rate requirements: In the formula, express t The time-period system peak shaving rate adjustment requirement; express t The system's peak shaving rate reduction requirement during certain time periods.

3. The method for retrofitting thermal power units considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand according to claim 1, characterized in that: The analysis of multiple regulation resources to obtain their peak-shaving capabilities specifically includes the following steps: (2a) Establishing the regulation capacity of conventional thermal power units and modified thermal power units: In the formula, and They are conventional thermal power units g Upward and downward adjustment capabilities; and These are the renovated thermal power units f Upward and downward adjustment capabilities; and They are conventional thermal power units g The rate of upward and downward climbing; and These are the renovated thermal power units f The rate of upward and downward climbing; τ The scheduling time interval; u g,t This represents the operating status of a conventional thermal power unit. u f,t The operating status of the modified thermal power unit; and Minimum and maximum technical output of conventional thermal power units; and thermal power units f Minimum and maximum technical output after modification; and They are conventional thermal power units g During the period t Power output and modified thermal power units f During the period t contribution; x f,t For the decision of whether or not to retrofit thermal power units for flexibility; (2b) Establishing peak-shaving capacity for energy storage: In the formula, and They are respectively t The upward and downward adjustment capabilities of time-of-use energy storage; and They represent t Time-of-use energy storage charging power and discharging power; and They represent t Maximum charging power and maximum discharging power of energy storage during a given time period; E t For energy storage t State of charge over a period of time; E max This refers to the rated capacity of the energy storage. E min This represents the minimum charge capacity for energy storage. η c and η d These refer to the energy storage charging and discharging efficiency, respectively.

4. The method for retrofitting thermal power units considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand according to claim 1, characterized in that: The process of establishing the relationship constraints between peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity based on peak-shaving demand and peak-shaving capacity, and simulating actual power system operation scenarios using stochastic production simulation to obtain the planned operation results also includes the following steps: (3b) Establish power balance constraints: In the formula, P g,t For conventional thermal power units g During the period t contribution; Thermal power units modified for flexibility f During the period t contribution; P x,t For time period t Wind power output; L t For time period load demand; and They represent t Time-of-use energy storage charging power and discharging power; (3c) Establish constraints on the output of new energy sources: In the formula, u x,t Providing power for new energy sources; P x,max To contribute the most to new energy; (3d) Establish constraints for thermal power units: In the formula, and These are the minimum and maximum gradeability limits for conventional thermal power units (g), respectively. P g,t-1 For thermal power units g During the period t-1 contribution; and These are thermal power units before their flexibility retrofit. f Minimum and maximum climbing limits; and These are thermal power units after flexibility modifications. f Minimum and maximum climbing limits; P g,min and P g,max Minimum and maximum technical output of conventional thermal power units; P g,t and They are conventional thermal power units g During the period t Power output and modified thermal power units f During the period t contribution; and thermal power units f Minimum and maximum technical output after modification; For the purpose of flexibly modifying the former thermal power units f Minimum technical output; (3e) Establishing energy storage operation constraints: In the formula, and They represent energy storage s in t The charging and discharging states during a given time period are both binary variables, and the value is 1 when the state is in that state. E 0 and E T These represent the initial state of charge and the final state of charge during the energy storage scheduling cycle, respectively. E t For energy storage t State of charge over a period of time; E max This refers to the rated capacity of the energy storage. E min This represents the minimum charge capacity for energy storage. η c and η d These are the energy storage charging and discharging efficiencies, respectively. and They represent t Time-of-use energy storage charging power and discharging power; and They represent t Maximum charging power and maximum discharging power of energy storage during a given time period; (3f) Establish peak-shaving capacity response constraints and peak-shaving rate response constraints: In the formula, and Time periods t The internal adjustable capacity and adjustable capacity; and These are, respectively, the flexibility response capability for upward peak shaving and the flexibility response capability for downward peak shaving; For conventional thermal power units g Upward adjustment ability; For the retrofitted thermal power units f Upward adjustment ability; for t The upward adjustment capability of time-limited energy storage; for t Downward adjustment capability of time-of-use energy storage For conventional thermal power units g Downward adjustment capability For the retrofitted thermal power units f Downward adjustment capability; and These are the lower and upper bounds of the net load forecast error, respectively. and Time periods t The amount of wind power curtailed and the amount of electricity cut off within the area; Ω G This refers to the overall collection of conventional thermal power units and flexible retrofitted thermal power units.

5. A thermal power unit retrofit device considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand, characterized in that: include: (1) Peak shaving demand analysis unit, used to analyze the uncertain peak shaving demand of large-scale wind power grid-connected systems; (2) Unit and energy storage peak shaving capacity unit, used to analyze conventional thermal power units, modified thermal power units and energy storage peak shaving capacity; (3) Simulation and planning unit, used to simulate the actual operation scenario of the power system using stochastic production simulation method to obtain the planned operation results; specifically including: Production operation simulation model, establishing the objective function: In the formula, C represents the total operating cost of the system; Costs of power generation and start-up / shutdown for conventional and modified thermal power units; and This refers to the number of conventional thermal power units and the number of retrofitted thermal power units. For wind curtailment penalties and load shedding penalties; and For conventional thermal power unit power generation cost function and modified thermal power unit power generation cost function; The cost of retrofitting thermal power units; and These are the start-up and shutdown cost coefficients for conventional thermal power units, respectively. and These are the start-up and shutdown cost coefficients for the modified thermal power units, respectively. and These are the unit wind curtailment penalty cost and the unit load shedding penalty cost, respectively. and These represent the curtailed wind power and the load shedding power within time period t, respectively; d is the investment cost recovery coefficient. To upgrade the capacity of thermal power plants, The cost of unit renovation; The set of thermal power units to be upgraded; T is the scheduling cycle; For the decision of whether or not to retrofit thermal power units for flexibility; This represents the operating status of a conventional thermal power unit. This shows the operating status of the modified thermal power unit.

6. The thermal power unit retrofit device considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand according to claim 5, characterized in that: The peak-shaving demand analysis unit includes: The load and wind power output prediction error analysis module is used to analyze the prediction errors of load and wind power output. The peak-shaving capacity demand establishment module is used to establish peak-shaving capacity demand. The peak shaving rate requirement establishment module is used to establish peak shaving rate requirements.

7. The thermal power unit retrofit device considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand according to claim 5, characterized in that: The generating unit and energy storage peak-shaving capacity unit include: The module for establishing the regulation capacity of conventional and retrofitted thermal power units is used to establish the regulation capacity of conventional and retrofitted thermal power units. The energy storage peak-shaving capacity establishment module is used to establish the energy storage peak-shaving capacity.

8. The thermal power unit retrofit device considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand according to claim 5, characterized in that: The simulation and planning unit includes: The objective function establishment unit is used for the production operation simulation model to establish the objective function: The power balance constraint establishment module is used to establish power balance constraints. The new energy output constraint establishment module is used to establish new energy output constraints. The thermal power unit constraint establishment module is used to establish thermal power unit constraints. The energy storage operation constraint establishment module is used to establish energy storage operation constraints. The module for establishing peak-shaving capacity response constraints and peak-shaving rate response constraints is used to establish peak-shaving capacity response constraints and peak-shaving rate response constraints.

9. An electronic device, comprising: processor; as well as A memory storing computer program instructions that, when executed by the processor, cause the processor to perform the thermal power unit retrofit planning method considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand as described in any one of claims 1-4.

10. A computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon computer program instructions, which, when executed by a processor, cause the processor to perform a thermal power unit retrofit planning method considering the uncertainty of peak-shaving demand as described in any one of claims 1-4.

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