Artificial hail prevention efficiency evaluation method, terminal device and storage medium

Abstract

The present application relates to the technical field of artificial hail prevention, and is a kind of artificial hail prevention efficiency evaluation method, terminal device and storage medium, which comprises the following steps: obtaining hail prevention data after hail prevention operation, wherein the hail prevention data includes radar observation data of hail cloud and disaster data caused by hail; defining a mathematical model of hail prevention efficiency; inputting the hail prevention data into the mathematical model of hail prevention efficiency to obtain the value of hail prevention index Y; judging the hail prevention effect, if Y>0, it indicates that the hail prevention operation is effective, and the larger the Y value, the more obvious the operation effect; if Y<=0, it indicates that the artificial hail prevention operation effect is not obvious or negative effect. Through the hail prevention efficiency and the hail prevention index, the operation effect and its significance level of carrying out artificial hail prevention can be better evaluated, and when evaluating, the hail prevention effect can be judged according to the value of hail prevention index Y only, the evaluation method is simple and easy to operate, and has strong practicability.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of artificial hail suppression technology, and is a method for evaluating the efficiency of artificial hail suppression, a terminal device, and a storage medium. Background Technology

[0002] There are two main methods of artificial intervention to prevent hail damage. One is anti-aircraft artillery hail suppression, which involves firing shells from 37mm anti-aircraft guns at hail clouds. The shell powder contains silver iodide. The principle behind this method is twofold: firstly, the shells explode in the cloud, generating shock waves that weaken and alter updrafts, preventing or reducing hail growth; secondly, the explosions spray silver iodide into the cloud, where it acts as a condensation nucleus, causing water molecules to condense rapidly. The silver iodide competes with the liquid water in the cloud, preventing hail particles from growing large. The other method is rocket-based hail suppression, which uses a rocket launch system to send rockets carrying silver iodide into the cloud. The rockets fly horizontally through the cloud, dispersing the silver iodide, which competes with the hail particles for liquid water, further limiting hail particle growth.

[0003] Regardless of the method of artificial intervention used, the effectiveness of hail suppression operations is a major concern for local residents and a crucial factor in determining national and local government funding for such efforts. Therefore, evaluating the efficiency and effectiveness of hail suppression is of paramount importance.

[0004] In the prior art, a Chinese invention patent application with publication number CN113093142A and titled "Hail Suppression Effect Evaluation Method" discloses a method for evaluating hail suppression effect, which includes the following steps: initiating target cloud identification, recording the height of the environmental characteristic layer and target cloud parameters on the catalytic day, and marking the hail echo; performing catalytic operations on the target cloud, while simultaneously recording the parameters of the target cloud catalytic operations; evaluating the rationality of the operation location on the target cloud; extracting information before, during, and after the operation on the target cloud; selecting a comparison cloud with similar characteristics, weather background, and geographical conditions to the target cloud, and unaffected by the target cloud; extracting information from the comparison cloud; normalizing the lifecycles of the target cloud and the comparison cloud; determining the "operation" time of the comparison cloud; and combining horizontal and vertical comparisons to evaluate the hail suppression operation effect. The normalization of the target cloud and comparison cloud lifecycles described in this invention normalizes and segments the entire cycle of the catalytic operation for comparison, and also compares the changes in the target cloud before and after the catalytic operation to understand the changes in various parameters of the entire hail cloud under the catalytic operation. Although this hail suppression effectiveness assessment method can evaluate the effectiveness of artificial hail suppression, the operation is relatively complex and its practicality is not strong.

[0005] Therefore, how to easily and accurately assess the effectiveness of hail suppression operations remains a technical challenge that urgently needs to be addressed in artificial hail suppression work. Summary of the Invention

[0006] This invention provides a method, terminal device, and storage medium for evaluating the efficiency of artificial hail suppression, overcoming the shortcomings of the prior art and effectively solving the problem of how to easily and accurately evaluate the effectiveness of artificial hail suppression operations.

[0007] One of the technical solutions of the present invention is achieved through the following measures: a method for evaluating the efficiency of artificial hail suppression, comprising the following steps:

[0008] Acquire hail suppression data after hail suppression operations, including radar observation data of hail clouds and damage data caused by hail;

[0009] The mathematical model for hail suppression efficiency is defined as follows:

[0010]

[0011] In the above formula, B P Y represents the hail suppression efficiency, N represents the number of hail suppression operations conducted by anti-aircraft guns or rockets, A represents the number of hail disasters, B represents the number of times Y < 0 and no hail disasters occurred, H represents the radar echo top height of the hail cloud, Q represents the strong central reflectivity of the hail cloud, and h represents the 40 dBZ echo top height of the hail cloud. ΔH, ΔQ, and Δh are the average values ​​of H, Q, and h within Δt before and after the operation, respectively. ΔH, ΔZ, and Δh are the changes of H, Q, and h within Δt before and after the hail suppression operation, respectively, where Δt is the time difference.

[0012] The hail suppression data is input into the mathematical model of hail suppression efficiency to obtain the value of the hail suppression index Y.

[0013] To assess the effectiveness of hail suppression, if Y > 0, it indicates that the hail suppression operation is effective, and the larger the Y value, the more obvious the effect. If Y ≤ 0, it indicates that the artificial hail suppression operation is not effective or has a negative effect.

[0014] The following are further optimizations and / or improvements to one of the above-mentioned technical solutions:

[0015] The aforementioned Δt can be taken as the time required for the three volume scans of the Doppler weather radar to be completed.

[0016] The above hail prevention index Y can be tested using the pairwise rank sum test.

[0017] The second technical solution of the present invention is achieved through the following measures: a terminal device, including a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a program that can run on the processor, and the processor executes the program to implement the above-mentioned artificial hail suppression efficiency evaluation method.

[0018] The third technical solution of the present invention is achieved through the following measures: a storage medium storing one or more programs, which can be executed by one or more processors to realize the above-mentioned artificial hail suppression efficiency evaluation method.

[0019] To quantitatively evaluate the hail suppression effectiveness of anti-aircraft artillery and rockets, this invention uses radar observation data of hail clouds and the damage caused by hail within a specific operational period in a certain defense zone to define a mathematical model for evaluating hail suppression efficiency. This invention, through hail suppression efficiency and hail suppression index, can effectively assess the operational effectiveness and significance of artificial hail suppression. Furthermore, the assessment only requires determining the hail suppression effect based on the value of the hail suppression index Y, making the evaluation method simple, easy to operate, and highly practical. Detailed Implementation

[0020] The present invention is not limited to the following embodiments, and the specific implementation can be determined according to the technical solution of the present invention and the actual situation.

[0021] The present invention will be further described below with reference to embodiments:

[0022] Example 1: The method for evaluating the efficiency of artificial hail suppression includes the following steps:

[0023] First, acquire hail suppression data after hail suppression operations. This hail suppression data includes radar observation data of hail clouds and damage data caused by hail.

[0024] The mathematical model for hail suppression efficiency is defined as follows:

[0025]

[0026] In the above formula, B P Y represents the hail suppression efficiency, N represents the number of hail suppression operations conducted by anti-aircraft guns or rockets, A represents the number of hail disasters, B represents the number of times Y < 0 and no hail disasters occurred, H represents the radar echo top height of the hail cloud, Q represents the strong central reflectivity of the hail cloud, and h represents the 40 dBZ echo top height of the hail cloud. ΔH, ΔQ, and Δh are the average values ​​of H, Q, and h within Δt before and after the operation, respectively. ΔH, ΔZ, and Δh are the changes of H, Q, and h within Δt before and after the hail suppression operation, respectively. Δt is the time difference. Δt is the time taken for the three volume scans of the Doppler weather radar to be completed, and Δt = 15 min or 18 min.

[0027] Then, the hail suppression data is input into the mathematical model of hail suppression efficiency to obtain the value of the hail suppression index Y; the hail suppression effect is judged. If Y>0, it indicates that the hail suppression operation is effective, and the larger the Y value, the more obvious the operation effect; if Y≤0, it indicates that the artificial hail suppression operation is not obvious or has a negative effect.

[0028] This invention analyzes and verifies the method for evaluating the efficiency of artificial hail suppression using examples of hail suppression operations in the Zhaosu Basin and Wujiaqu Reclamation Area. The Zhaosu Basin and Wujiaqu Reclamation Area are located in the western section of the Tianshan Mountains and the northern foothills of the Central Tianshan Mountains, respectively, both being high-incidence areas for hail in Xinjiang. The methods used for hail suppression operations differ between the two areas: the Zhaosu Basin uses anti-aircraft artillery, while the Wujiaqu Reclamation Area uses rockets. The following analysis uses weather radar observation data and hail-affected areas from 18 hail suppression operations in the Zhaosu Basin and 12 hail suppression operations in the Wujiaqu Reclamation Area from 2004 to 2005 as data for evaluation.

[0029] Table 1. Changes in radar parameters, calculation of Y-values, and crop damage before and after hail suppression operations in the Zhaosu Basin, 2004-2005 (Δt = 18 min).

[0030]

[0031]

[0032] Table 2. Changes in radar parameters, calculation of Y-values, and crop damage before and after hail suppression operations in Wujiaqu Reclamation Area, 2004-2005 (Δt = 18 min)

[0033]

[0034] (1) Analysis of radar detection data

[0035] In 18 cases of hail suppression operations using anti-aircraft artillery in the Zhaosu Basin, after the operations, the top height H of most echoes, especially the top height h of the 40 dBZ echo, decreased significantly, but the intensity Q of the strong echo center did not change much. This indicates that artificial hail suppression operations suppressed the 40 dBZ echo area of ​​hail clouds, but had little effect on the strong echo center area. This may be related to the geographical location of the Zhaosu Basin. Since the primary source of hail clouds in the Zhaosu Basin is Kazakhstan upstream, hail clouds that move into the basin are often already in a mature stage, and the optimal time for operations has passed. In addition, the basin mainly uses fixed-point 37mm anti-aircraft artillery for artificial hail suppression operations, but the 37mm anti-aircraft artillery has poor mobility and a low operational impact height. Therefore, artificial hail suppression operations are greatly limited, resulting in limited effectiveness.

[0036] In 12 cases of rocket-based hail suppression operations in the Wujiaqu reclamation area, the three parameters H, h, and Q generally decreased after the operations, indicating that hail cloud development was suppressed by artificial hail suppression. However, there were two cases with the opposite effect, such as May 31, 2004, and May 28, 2005. After the hail suppression operations, the maximum radar echo top height H increased by 1 km, the strong center echo intensity Q increased by 10 dBZ, and the 40 dBZ echo top height h increased by 0.5 km. This shows that the development of hail clouds was not suppressed by artificial hail suppression operations, but rather further intensified. The reason for this may be that the amount of rockets used in the operations was too small, and the operations did not effectively suppress the development of hail clouds, but instead catalyzed and enhanced the development of the cloud.

[0037] (2) Analysis of the hail prevention index Y

[0038] The calculation results of the hail suppression index Y show that in the Zhaosu Basin, two cases had Y < 0, resulting in severe hail damage; five cases, although Y > 0, also experienced hail damage. This is because the hail clouds were in a mature stage after entering the basin, containing a large number of hail particles. After the anti-aircraft artillery operation, the explosions had a certain inhibitory effect on the updrafts supporting the hail. However, while the development of the hail clouds was suppressed, it also caused hail to fall and cause damage. In the Wujiaqu reclamation area, two cases experienced hail damage when Y < 0, which may be related to the inaccurate timing of the hail suppression operation, insufficient ammunition used, and failure to achieve excessive spraying.

[0039] This invention can also employ the pairwise rank-sum test to examine the hail suppression index Y. The pairwise rank-sum test was proposed by Wilcoxon (1945). In this invention, after examining the hail suppression index Y in the Zhaosu Basin and the Wujiaqu reclamation area, it was found that the significance level of hail suppression effect in the Zhaosu Basin was α = 0.08, and in the Wujiaqu reclamation area, α = 0.01, indicating that at a confidence level of 0.1, the hail suppression operations in both the Zhaosu Basin and the Wujiaqu reclamation area were significant. However, regarding the significance level, the hail suppression effect of rockets was higher than that of anti-aircraft guns, which does not provide a concrete quantitative result for hail suppression.

[0040] (3) Calculation of hail suppression efficiency

[0041] After 18 artificial hail suppression operations were carried out in the Zhaosu Basin, 7 hail disasters occurred. Y < 0 and no disasters occurred 4 times. Substituting into formula (1), the hail suppression efficiency B of the Zhaosu Basin was calculated. P =39%. After 12 artificial hail suppression operations were carried out in the Wujiaqu reclamation area, two hail disasters occurred. Y < 0 and no disasters occurred. Calculate B for the Wujiaqu reclamation area. P =75%. B PIt is clearly indicated that rockets are 1.9 times more effective at preventing hail than anti-aircraft guns, and rockets are significantly more effective at preventing hail than anti-aircraft guns.

[0042] To enable those skilled in the art to better understand this invention, the term dBZ needs to be explained. Definition

[0043]

[0044] The Z-value is the radar reflectivity factor, measured in mm. 6 / m 3 n represents the particle number density, and n(D)dD represents the number of particles per unit volume of cloud or raindrop with diameters between D and D+dD. The reflectivity factor Z reflects the size and number density of precipitation particles within a meteorological target and is often used to represent the intensity of the meteorological target. Since the reflectivity factor Z depends only on the meteorological target itself and is independent of radar parameters and range, Z values ​​measured by radars with different parameters can be compared.

[0045] The reflectivity factor Z is sometimes expressed in decibels, denoted as dBZ. In this case, Z = 1 mm is taken. 6 / m 3 As a standard value, we have:

[0046]

[0047] The Z values ​​corresponding to different dBZ values ​​are shown in Table 3.

[0048] Table 3 shows the correspondence between dBZ and Z.

[0049] <![CDATA[Z(mm 6 / m 3 )]]> <![CDATA[3.2×10 3 ]]> <![CDATA[10 4 ]]> <![CDATA[3.2×10 4 ]]> <![CDATA[10 5 ]]> <![CDATA[3.2×10 5 ]]>

[0050] To quantitatively evaluate the hail suppression effectiveness of anti-aircraft artillery and rockets, this invention defines a mathematical model to evaluate hail suppression efficiency based on radar observation data of hail clouds and the damage caused by hail within a certain operational period in a specific defense zone. This invention, through hail suppression efficiency and hail suppression index, can effectively assess the operational effectiveness and significance of artificial hail suppression. Furthermore, the evaluation only requires the value of the hail suppression index Y to determine the hail suppression effect; the evaluation method is simple, easy to operate, and highly practical.

[0051] Example 2: This embodiment of the invention provides a terminal device, which includes a memory, a processor, a communication interface, and a communication bus. The memory stores a program that can run on the processor. When the processor executes the program, it implements the artificial hail suppression efficiency evaluation method described in the above embodiment.

[0052] The processor can be a central processing unit, or it can be other general-purpose processors, digital signal processors, application-specific integrated circuits, field-programmable gate arrays or other programmable logic devices, discrete gate or transistor logic devices, discrete hardware components, or combinations of the above types of chips.

[0053] Memory, as a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium, can be used to store non-transitory software programs, non-transitory computer-executable programs, and units, such as the program units corresponding to the methods described above in this invention. The processor executes various functional applications and data processing by running the non-transitory software programs, instructions, and modules stored in the memory, thereby implementing the artificial hail suppression efficiency evaluation method described in the above embodiments.

[0054] The memory may include a program storage area and a data storage area. The program storage area may store the operating system and applications required for at least one function; the data storage area may store data created by the processor, etc. Furthermore, the memory may include high-speed random access memory and non-transitory memory, such as at least one disk storage device, flash memory device, or other non-transitory solid-state storage device. The memory may optionally include memory remotely located relative to the processor, which can be connected to the processor via a network. The one or more programs stored in the memory, when executed by the processor, perform the artificial hail suppression efficiency evaluation method described in the above embodiments.

[0055] Example 3: This embodiment of the invention provides a storage medium for computer-readable storage, which stores one or more programs that can be executed by one or more processors to implement the artificial hail suppression efficiency evaluation method as described in any of the above method embodiments.

[0056] The storage medium can be an internal storage unit of the terminal device, such as the hard drive or memory of the terminal device. Alternatively, the storage medium can be an external storage device of the terminal device, such as a plug-in hard drive, smart memory card, secure digital card, or flash memory card equipped on the terminal device.

[0057] The above technical features constitute the embodiments of the present invention, which have strong adaptability and implementation effect. Unnecessary technical features can be added or removed according to actual needs to meet the needs of different situations.

Claims

1. A method for evaluating the efficiency of artificial hail suppression, characterized in that... Includes the following steps: Acquire hail suppression data after hail suppression operations, including radar observation data of hail clouds and damage data caused by hail; The mathematical model for hail suppression efficiency is defined as follows: （1） In the above formula, Y represents the hail suppression efficiency, N represents the number of hail suppression operations conducted by anti-aircraft guns or rockets, A represents the number of hail disasters, B represents the number of times Y < 0 and no hail disasters occurred, and H represents the radar echo top height of the hail cloud. This indicates the magnitude of the strong central reflectivity of the hail cloud, where h represents the 40 dBZ echo top height of the hail cloud. They are Before and after the assignment The average value within, They are Before and after hail suppression operations The change within, For time difference; The hail suppression data is input into the mathematical model of hail suppression efficiency to obtain the value of the hail suppression index Y. To assess the effectiveness of hail suppression, if Y < 0, it indicates that the hail suppression operation is effective, and the larger the Y value, the more obvious the effect. If Y ≤ 0, it indicates that the artificial hail suppression operation is not effective or has a negative effect.

2. The method for evaluating the efficiency of artificial hail suppression according to claim 1, characterized in that... The time taken to complete three volume scans by the Doppler weather radar.

3. The method for evaluating the efficiency of artificial hail suppression according to claim 1 or 2, characterized in that... The hail prevention index Y was tested using the pairwise rank-sum test.

4. A terminal device, comprising a memory and a processor, wherein the memory stores a program executable on the processor, characterized in that, When the processor executes the program, it implements the artificial hail suppression efficiency evaluation method as described in any one of claims 1 to 3.

5. A storage medium, characterized in that, The storage medium stores one or more programs, which can be executed by one or more processors to implement the artificial hail suppression efficiency evaluation method as described in any one of claims 1 to 3.

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