一种日前风光发电功率场景生成方法、虚拟装置及计算机可读介质

By analyzing the statistical characteristics of wind and solar power generation data and the fluctuation level of meteorological factors, a conditional label vector is constructed. A generative adversarial network is used to generate a prediction error sequence, which solves the problem of regional resource characteristics and prediction error influence in the day-ahead wind and solar power generation scenario generation, improves the scenario generation accuracy, and enhances the stability of the power system.

CN117060374BActive Publication Date: 2026-07-17CHINA AGRI UNIV +2

Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
CHINA AGRI UNIV
Filing Date
2023-06-30
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing technologies fail to fully consider the regional resource characteristics and the conditional dependence of prediction errors in the generation of current wind and solar power generation scenarios, resulting in insufficient scenario generation accuracy and difficulty in meeting the stable operation requirements of the power system.

Method used

By analyzing the statistical characteristics and similarity of wind and solar power generation data, and combining the level of meteorological factor fluctuations to create a stratified structure, a conditional label vector is constructed. A generative adversarial network is then used to train a generative model to generate a prediction error sequence that meets the conditional characteristics. This sequence is then superimposed on the predicted value to construct a day-ahead wind and solar power generation scenario.

Benefits of technology

It improves the accuracy and universality of the scene generation model, enabling it to better cope with the uncertainties of new energy sources and enhance the safe and stable operation of the power system.

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Abstract

本发明涉及一种考虑区域资源特性的日前风光发电功率场景生成方法。该方法考虑区域的资源特性及预测误差的条件相依性,得到根据预测数据和气象因子波动水平划分的不同条件下预测误差的分布。并基于不同条件下的预测误差进行场景分层,得到更准确的预测误差分布估计,在不同条件下的预测误差分布的监督下建立场景生成模型,可以提高场景生成模型的精度。
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