一种基于改进孪生支持向量机的径流区间预报方法

CN117371805BActive Publication Date: 2026-07-17HOHAI UNIV

Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
HOHAI UNIV
Filing Date
2023-08-23
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing runoff forecasting models are unable to accurately characterize and describe the nonlinear, fluctuating, and complex features of runoff, resulting in deterministic values ​​that cannot reflect the possible range of runoff fluctuations, and a single model cannot provide comprehensive information.

Method used

An improved twin support vector machine method was adopted, and the whale optimization algorithm was improved by combining nonlinear convergence factor and nonlinear adaptive weight factor. By introducing Lagrange multipliers and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions, the model parameters were optimized, and upper and lower boundary functions were generated for runoff interval forecasting.

Benefits of technology

It has achieved high-quality runoff interval forecasting, reduced forecast uncertainty, provided a quantitative description of runoff value fluctuation range, and improved the reliability and clarity of forecasts.

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Abstract

本发明公开了一种基于改进孪生支持向量机的径流区间预报方法,包括:对整编后的水文预报断面的流量数据,进行缺失值检验,若存在缺失值,采用所提方法进行数据处理,得到逐日径流序列。其次,在孪生支持向量机点预报模型的基础上,利用该模型本身的一对上下边界函数,引入一个动态平移参数a,提出一种区间预报方法,同时采用改进的鲸鱼优化算法优选模型参数,平衡其全局搜索和局部搜索能力,得到高质量的预报区间。本发明提出了一种缺失数据的处理方法和一种基于孪生支持向量机的区间预报方法,该区间预报方法无需提前进行点预报以及误差分布假设,可直接生成预报区间,定量化描述径流序列的不确定性,并利用非线性收敛因子和非线性自适应权重因子对鲸鱼优化算法进行改进,增强模型的寻优能力,提高水文预报的精度。
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