Method for determining an airspace filter reflecting the influence of convective weather on a flight segment on flight operations

Abstract

The application provides a method for determining an airspace filter reflecting the influence of a flight section convective weather on flight operation. The method comprises the following steps: determining a flight section of an air route and corresponding historical weather data and flight operation data, and cleaning the data; determining specifications of several to-be-determined airspace filters; determining meteorological product values of the flight section weather; calculating a WAF (convective weather diversion probability) distribution table of each airspace filter; constantly changing a WAF threshold value according to a prediction result evaluation index, and drawing an index image; and determining the airspace filter that can best reflect the influence of the flight section weather on the flight. The application is helpful for reflecting the convective weather condition on the flight section, planning the airspace in advance, reducing flight delays, ensuring flight operation safety, and improving airspace utilization.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to technology for characterizing the impact of weather on flights, and more specifically to a method for determining an airspace filter that reflects the impact of convective weather on flight operations. Background Technology

[0002] With the rapid development of civil aviation in recent years, the number of flights on air routes has been increasing, while the available flight area is limited, leading to increasingly serious flight delays. Convective weather is one of the main causes of flight delays. Therefore, characterizing convective weather conditions along air routes is crucial for predicting weather and rerouting flights. Selecting appropriate airspace filters can effectively reflect the impact of convective weather on flight rerouting, aiding in airspace planning, improving air route efficiency, minimizing the risk of flights encountering convective weather, and ensuring flight safety. Summary of the Invention

[0003] Purpose of the invention: This invention proposes a method for determining airspace filters that reflect the impact of convective weather on flight operations.

[0004] Technical solution: A method for determining an airspace filter that reflects the impact of convective weather on flight operations, comprising the following steps:

[0005] Step 1: Determine the flight segments along the route, as well as the corresponding historical weather data and flight operation data, and clean the data;

[0006] Step 2: Determine the specifications of several spatial filters;

[0007] Step 3: Determine the meteorological product values ​​for the flight segment;

[0008] Step 4: Calculate the WAF distribution table for each type of spatial filter;

[0009] Step 5: Evaluate the indicators based on the prediction results, continuously adjust the WAF threshold, and plot the indicator graph;

[0010] Step 6: Determine the airspace filter that best reflects the impact of weather conditions on flights.

[0011] Further, in step 1, the method involves: identifying the flight segment to be analyzed, where a flight segment refers to a portion of the route within a sector, and the segment length is not less than 60 km. The acquired data includes the length and width of the flight segment, flight operation data for the segment area over one year, and corresponding weather data. The flight operation data includes flight plan data and radar trajectory data. Flight plan data includes takeoff time, flight time, landing time, call sign, ground speed, flight altitude, and latitude and longitude; radar trajectory data includes flight number, takeoff time, landing time, takeoff airport, landing airport, and planned flight path; meteorological data includes echo top height (ET) and vertical cumulative liquid water content (VIL). Flight data diverted due to non-weather reasons and weather data with missing information are removed.

[0012] Further, in step 2, the airspace filter is a planar region whose length and width (n km × n km, 4 ≤ n ≤ 60 and n is a positive integer) are determined as needed. The route width is generally 20 km, while the airspace filter is used to reflect the weather conditions of the route. To avoid representing the weather conditions of a section of the route from areas too far away through the airspace filter, the maximum size of the airspace filter should not exceed 60 km × 60 km. The "several airspace filters to be determined" refers to selecting several airspace filters with sizes within a limited range. Each type of airspace filter is used to divide the route determined in step 1 into multiple regions.

[0013] Further, in step 3, the meteorological data storage unit has a size of 1km × 1km. When the airspace filter has a size of n km × n km, the filter consists of n × n meteorological data storage units. ET reflects the altitude of convective weather, and VIL reflects the rainfall intensity of the area. For each meteorological product, each unit stores the corresponding value. The method for determining the meteorological product value of each airspace filter includes: obtaining the 90th percentile ET value of all meteorological data storage units in the airspace filter as the ET value of that airspace filter; obtaining an airspace filter VIL ≥ 3.5 kg / m 3 The proportion of meteorological data storage units to all units, serving as the VIL (Vacuum Intake) of this spatial filter block, is ≥3.5 kg / m³. 3 Coverage value. The method for determining the meteorological product value of a flight segment includes: selecting the airspace filter with the largest VIL ≥ 3.5 kg / m from all airspace filters on the flight segment. 3 Coverage value is defined as VIL ≥ 3.5 kg / m² in this flight segment area. 3 Coverage value; select the ET value of the airspace filter with the largest value as the ET value of the air segment area.

[0014] Further, in step 4, the WAF (Way-of-Flight Probability) is determined by methods including: using a segment VIL (Volume Indicator) ≥ 3.5 kg / m. 3 The coverage rate is plotted on the horizontal axis, and the segment deltaZ value (representing the difference between the flight altitude and the echo top height ET of the convective weather in the segment) is plotted on the vertical axis to form a two-dimensional coordinate graph. A specific area in the coordinate graph is selected as the weather condition for a designated segment, and the ratio of the number of diverted flights to the total number of flights under that weather condition is calculated to obtain the WAF (Wide Airway Function). Due to missing flight data in certain meteorological value ranges, the actual WAF distribution table is filled in using interpolation to determine the final WAF distribution table.

[0015] Further, in step 5, the method is as follows: Let TD represent the number of correctly predicted rerouted flights; TND represent the number of correctly predicted rerouted flights; FND represent the number of flights incorrectly predicted as rerouted flights; and FD represent the number of rerouted flights incorrectly predicted as non-rerouted flights. The evaluation index for the rerouted flight prediction results is the CSI (Key Success Index). The formula for calculating CSI is as follows:

[0016]

[0017] When the WAF value within the range of meteorological product values ​​exceeds a certain specific value, it is determined that flights under this condition will be rerouted; this specific value is the WAF threshold (WAF_threshold). Based on each airspace filter, the number of flights corresponding to different WAF values ​​is statistically analyzed. Using 10 WAF percentages as a step size, the WAF threshold is continuously adjusted, and predictions are made according to the above principles. The results are then compared with the actual situation to obtain the CSI index value. A CSI-WAF_threshold curve is plotted with WAF_threshold as the x-axis and CSI as the y-axis for different airspace filters.

[0018] Furthermore, in step 6, for the CSI-WAF_threshold curve, under the same WAF threshold, a higher CSI value indicates better prediction accuracy. If the airspace filter curve of a certain specification is generally above that of another airspace filter curve under the same WAF_threshold condition, then the former airspace filter specification better reflects the convective weather conditions of the flight segment. High-precision airspace filters require longer WAF calculation times for flight segments. Therefore, based on actual needs, the optimal airspace filter specification can be determined by comprehensively considering the time required to calculate the WAF for each airspace filter and the accuracy of the airspace filter reflected in the curve.

[0019] Beneficial Effects: This invention proposes a method for determining an airspace filter that reflects the impact of convective weather on flight operations. By comparing CSI-WAF_threshold curves under different WAF thresholds, the optimal airspace filter is selected to indicate the weather conditions on the flight segment. This invention can reflect the weather conditions in a certain area of ​​the route, providing a reference for whether the segment is passable for aircraft at a future time, improving airspace utilization and reducing flight delays. This invention can reflect the impact of weather on flight segment conditions, which can reduce the impact of convective weather on flight segments to a certain extent and ensure flight safety. Attached Figure Description

[0020] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the method of the present invention.

[0021] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the airspace filter for a flight segment.

[0022] Figure 3 This is a WAF flight distribution table.

[0023] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the CSI-WAF_threshold curve. Detailed Implementation

[0024] The technical solution and beneficial effects of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0025] like Figure 1 As shown, this invention discloses a method for determining an airspace filter that reflects the impact of convective weather on flight operations. The specific steps are as follows:

[0026] Step 1: Determine the flight segment area along the route and obtain the corresponding weather data and flight operation data, and clean up unusable data.

[0027] The flight segment to be analyzed is determined, where a flight segment refers to a portion of the route within a sector, and the segment length is no less than 60km. The acquired data includes the length and width of the flight segment, flight operation data for that segment area over one year, and corresponding weather data. The flight operation data includes flight plan data and radar trajectory data. Flight plan data includes departure time, flight time, landing time, call sign, ground speed, flight altitude, and latitude and longitude; radar trajectory data includes flight number, departure time, landing time, departure airport, landing airport, and planned flight path; weather data includes echo top height (ET) and vertical cumulative liquid water content (VIL). Flight data diverted due to non-weather reasons and missing weather data are removed.

[0028] Step 2: Determine several spatial filter specifications.

[0029] The airspace filter is a planar region, the length and width of which (n km × n km, 4 ≤ n ≤ 60 and n is a positive integer) are determined as needed. The width of a flight path is generally 20 km, while the airspace filter is used to reflect the weather conditions of a flight segment. To avoid representing the weather conditions of a section of the flight path from areas too far away through the airspace filter, the maximum size of the airspace filter should not exceed 60 km × 60 km. Figure 2 As shown. The several airspace filter specifications to be determined refer to the selection of several airspace filters within a limited range. In this example, three airspace filter specifications are selected: 10km×10km, 20km×20km, and 40km×40km. Each airspace filter is used to divide the flight segment determined in step 1 into multiple areas.

[0030] Step 3: Determine the meteorological product values ​​for the flight segment.

[0031] The meteorological data storage unit has a size of 1km × 1km. When the airspace filter has a size of n km × n km, the filter consists of n × n meteorological data storage units. ET reflects the altitude of convective weather, and VIL reflects the rainfall intensity of the area. For each meteorological product, each unit stores the corresponding value. The method for determining the meteorological product value of each airspace filter includes: obtaining the 90th percentile ET value of all meteorological data storage units in the airspace filter as the ET value of that airspace filter; and obtaining an airspace filter VIL ≥ 3.5 kg / m². 3 The proportion of meteorological data storage units to all units, serving as the VIL (Vacuum Intake) of this spatial filter block ≥ 3.5 kg / m 3 Coverage value. The method for determining the meteorological product value of a flight segment includes: selecting the airspace filter with the largest VIL ≥ 3.5 kg / m from all airspace filters on the flight segment. 3 Coverage value is defined as VIL ≥ 3.5 kg / m² in this flight segment area. 3 Coverage value; select the ET value of the airspace filter with the largest value as the ET value of the air segment area.

[0032] Step 4: Calculate the WAF distribution table for each type of spatial filter.

[0033] The WAF refers to the diversion probability value, and the methods for determining the WAF include: using a segment VIL ≥ 3.5 kg / m 3The coverage rate is plotted on the horizontal axis, and the segment deltaZ value (representing the difference between the flight altitude and the echo top height ET of the convective weather in the segment) is plotted on the vertical axis, forming a two-dimensional coordinate graph. A specific area in the coordinate graph is selected as the weather condition for a designated segment, and the ratio of the number of diverted flights to the total number of flights under that weather condition is calculated to obtain the WAF (Warnings Availability). Since flight data is missing in certain meteorological ranges, the actual WAF distribution table is filled in using interpolation to determine the final WAF distribution table. For example... Figure 3 As shown.

[0034] Step 5: Evaluate the indicators based on the prediction results, continuously change the WAF threshold, and plot the indicator graph.

[0035] The key performance indicator (KPI) for flight rerouting prediction is the Critical Success Index (CSI). Let TD represent the number of correctly predicted rerouting flights; TND represent the number of correctly predicted rerouting flights; FND represent the number of flights mistakenly predicted as rerouting flights; and FD represent the number of rerouting flights mistakenly predicted as non-rerouting flights. The CSI is calculated using the following formula:

[0036]

[0037] When the WAF value within the meteorological product range exceeds a certain specific value, it is determined that flights under this condition will be rerouted; this specific value is the WAF threshold (WAF_threshold). Based on each airspace filter, the number of flights corresponding to different WAF values ​​is statistically analyzed. Using 10 WAF percentages as a step size, the WAF threshold is continuously adjusted, and predictions are made according to the above principles. The results are compared with the actual situation to obtain the CSI index value. A CSI-WAF_threshold curve is plotted with WAF_threshold as the x-axis and CSI as the y-axis for different airspace filters. (Reference) Figure 4 .

[0038] Step 6: Determine the airspace filter that best reflects the impact of weather conditions on flights.

[0039] For the CSI-WAF_threshold curve, under the same WAF threshold, a higher CSI value indicates better prediction accuracy. If the airspace filter curve of a certain specification is generally above that of another airspace filter specification under the same WAF_threshold conditions, then the former airspace filter specification better reflects the convective weather conditions of the flight segment. High-precision airspace filters require longer WAF calculation times for flight segments. The optimal airspace filter specification can be determined by comprehensively considering the calculation time for the WAF of each airspace filter based on actual needs and the accuracy of the airspace filter reflected in the curve.

Claims

1. A method for determining an airspace filter that reflects the impact of convective weather on flight operations, characterized in that: Includes the following steps: Step 1: Identify the air segments along the route, along with the corresponding historical weather and flight operation data, and clean the data. Step 2: Determine the specifications of several airspace filters, and divide the flight segment into multiple regions using each type of airspace filter; wherein, each airspace filter is a planar region with a length, width, and distance of [missing information]. n km× n km, 4≤ n ≤60 and n The value is a positive integer; the maximum size of the spatial filter does not exceed 60km × 60km; the "several undetermined spatial filters" refers to selecting several spatial filters with sizes within a limited range; Step 3: Determine the meteorological product values ​​for each airspace filter segment; wherein, the airspace filter is composed of meteorological data storage units, which store echo top height (ET) and vertical cumulative liquid water content (VIL) values; the method for determining the meteorological product values ​​for each airspace filter includes: obtaining the 90th percentile of all meteorological data storage units in the airspace filter. ET The value is used as the spatial filter of this block. ET Value; Obtain spatial filter VIL ≥3.5kg / m 3 The proportion of meteorological data storage units to all units, serving as the spatial filter for this block. VIL ≥3.5kg / m 3 Coverage value; among all airspace filters on the flight segment, select the airspace filter with the highest coverage value. VIL ≥3.5kg / m 3 Coverage value is used as the area coverage of this flight segment. VIL ≥3.5kg / m 3 Coverage value; select the spatial filter with the largest coverage. ET The value is used as the area of ​​this flight segment. ET value; Step 4: Calculate the WAF distribution table for each type of spatial filter; Step 5: Evaluate the indicators based on the forecast results, continuously adjust the WAF threshold, and plot the indicator graph; among them, when the meteorological product value is within the range WAF If the value is greater than the WAF threshold, the flight is considered to be rerouted under this condition; based on each airspace filter, the number of flights corresponding to different WAF values ​​is counted; using multiple WAF percentages as step sizes, the WAF threshold is continuously adjusted, and predictions are made according to the above principles, and the results are compared with the actual situation to obtain the CSI index value; WAF_threshold As the x-axis, with CSI Plot the CSI-WAF_threshold curves for different spatial filters using the vertical axis as the ordinate. Step 6: Determine the airspace filter that best reflects the impact of weather on flights based on the indicator image.

2. The method for determining the airspace filter reflecting the impact of convective weather on flight operations according to claim 1, characterized in that: The flight segment refers to the portion of the route within a sector, and the segment length is not less than 60km; the flight operation data includes flight plan data and radar trajectory data; the flight plan data includes takeoff time, flight time, landing time, call sign, ground speed, flight altitude, latitude and longitude; the radar trajectory data includes flight number, takeoff time, landing time, takeoff airport, landing airport, and flight plan path; the weather data includes echo top height (ET) and vertical cumulative liquid water content (VIL); flight data diverted due to non-weather reasons and weather data with missing information are removed.

3. The method for determining the airspace filter reflecting the impact of convective weather on flight operations according to claim 1, characterized in that: Methods for deriving WAF include: by flight segment VIL ≥3.5kg / m 3 Coverage value is on the horizontal axis, with flight segments as the basis. deltaZ The values ​​are used to construct a two-dimensional coordinate graph on the vertical axis. deltaZ This represents the difference between the flight altitude and the echo top height (ET) of the convective weather in the flight segment; a certain area in the coordinate graph is selected as the specified weather conditions for the flight segment, and the ratio of the number of diverted flights to the total number of flights under the weather conditions of that flight segment is calculated to obtain the WAF; the final WAF distribution table is determined by filling the actual WAF distribution table with interpolation.

4. The method for determining the airspace filter reflecting the impact of convective weather on flight operations according to claim 1, characterized in that: For the CSI-WAF_threshold curve, under the same WAF threshold... CSI A higher value indicates better prediction accuracy; if the curve of a spatial filter of a certain specification is at the same... WAF_threshold If the overall airspace filter is above the curve of another specification under the same conditions, then the airspace filter specification of the former best reflects the convective weather conditions of the flight segment. The WAF calculation time for the flight segment corresponding to the high-precision airspace filter is long. According to actual needs, the optimal airspace filter specification can be determined by comprehensively considering the time taken to calculate the WAF of the flight segment based on each type of airspace filter and the airspace filter accuracy effect reflected by the curve.

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