A method, system and medium for predicting the onset voltage of a surface discharge of a support insulator

Abstract

The application relates to the technical field of power equipment performance testing, and in particular to a support insulator surface discharge inception voltage prediction method and system and a medium. Model input parameters are acquired, and a support insulator multi-physical field model is constructed according to the model input parameters. Boundary conditions are set for the support insulator multi-physical field model, and grid division is performed, so that the electric field modulus value and the temperature value at the position coordinate point of the electric field line starting from the surface of the high-voltage electrode are obtained. The electric field modulus value is subjected to electric field constraint and streamer criterion, and a critical volume is determined. The rate of ion desorption generating effective electron avalanche is obtained. A given voltage is acquired, the surface discharge probability and the time variation parameter under the given voltage are obtained according to the rate of ion desorption generating effective electron avalanche, the flashover probability and a preset probability reference value are acquired, and in the case that the flashover probability reaches 1 within the preset probability reference value range, the discharge inception voltage is obtained, and the accuracy of predicting the surface discharge inception voltage is improved.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This application relates to the field of power equipment performance testing technology, and in particular to a method, system and medium for predicting the initiation voltage of surface discharge of a supporting insulator. Background Technology

[0002] Support insulators are key components in high-voltage power equipment such as gas-insulated switchgear in power systems. They serve multiple functions, including electrical insulation, mechanical support, and gas pressure isolation, making them an indispensable core component. However, in high-pressure environments, due to the high dielectric strength of the insulator itself and the high insulating strength of the compressed gas, the composite interface formed by the gas and solid insulation has relatively low dielectric strength, making it prone to surface discharge breakdown, also known as surface flashover. The existence of surface flashover significantly reduces the withstand voltage of the entire insulation system, limiting the improvement of voltage levels in power equipment and hindering the urgent development of miniaturization and compactness.

[0003] Current methods for designing and manufacturing insulation structures and optimizing insulation configurations largely rely on experience. Extensive preliminary testing is conducted based on a certain insulation margin to ultimately determine the optimized insulation geometry and configuration. However, to account for the varying losses and heat generation of the metal conductor and insulating medium at different frequencies, as well as the differences in energy generated during discharge, ignoring disturbance factors can lead to significant deviations in flashover voltage calculations. This affects the accuracy of predicting the surface dielectric strength of the supporting insulator and the discharge initiation voltage, ultimately hindering practical application. These issues need to be addressed. Summary of the Invention

[0004] To improve the accuracy of assessing the surface dielectric strength of supporting insulators and enhance the accuracy of predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage, this application provides a method, system, and medium for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of supporting insulators, employing the following technical solution:

[0005] In a first aspect, this application provides a method for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator, comprising:

[0006] Obtain the model input parameters and construct a multiphysics model of the supporting insulator based on the model input parameters;

[0007] Boundary conditions were set for the multiphysics model of the supporting insulator, and meshing was performed to obtain the electric field modulus and temperature values ​​at the coordinates of the electric field lines originating from the surface of the high-voltage electrode.

[0008] The critical volume is determined by applying electric field constraints and streamer criteria to the electric field modulus.

[0009] The rate at which ion desorption produces an effective electron avalanche is obtained by processing the critical volume and temperature values.

[0010] Given a voltage, based on the rate at which effective electron avalanches are generated by ion desorption, the parameters of the change in surface discharge probability versus time at the given voltage are obtained.

[0011] Obtain the flashover probability and the preset probability reference value. When the flashover probability reaches 1 within the preset probability reference value range, obtain the discharge initiation voltage.

[0012] Preferred options also include:

[0013] Given the electric field modulus, the electric field intensity value of the smooth electrode surface is obtained, and the electric field modulus is corrected based on the electric field intensity value of the smooth electrode surface.

[0014] Preferably, the model input parameters include current amplitude, voltage amplitude, and frequency.

[0015] Preferably, the multiphysics model of the supporting insulator includes:

[0016]

[0017] Where ε is the dielectric constant, σ is the conductivity, ω is the angular frequency with a value of 2πf, and j is the imaginary unit.

[0018] Preferably, the step of correcting the electric field modulus based on the electric field intensity value of the smooth electrode surface specifically involves:

[0019]

[0020] Where Rmax is the radius of the hemispherical protrusion, E0 is the electric field intensity on the ideal smooth electrode surface, z is the distance from the point on the axis to the top of the protrusion, and E(z) is the electric field magnitude.

[0021] Preferably, the specific steps for the rate of effective electron avalanche generated by ion desorption include obtaining the electron generation rate νne1, specifically including:

[0022]

[0023]

[0024] Where kd is the desorption coefficient, T is the gas temperature, p is the pressure, p0 is the atmospheric pressure, and T0 is the room temperature.

[0025] Preferably, the specific step of determining the rate of effective electron avalanche generation by ion desorption further includes processing the rate of effective electron avalanche generation by ion desorption based on the electron generation rate, specifically including:

[0026]

[0027]

[0028] Where α is the ionization coefficient of the gas molecule, η is the adsorption coefficient of the gas molecule, and Vw is the rate at which ions desorb and generate effective electron avalanches within the critical volume Vcr.

[0029] Secondly, this application provides a system for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator, comprising:

[0030] The model construction module is used to obtain model input parameters and construct a multiphysics model of the supporting insulator based on the model input parameters.

[0031] The limiting module is used to set boundary conditions for the multiphysics model of the supporting insulator and perform mesh generation to obtain the electric field modulus and temperature values ​​at the coordinates of the electric field lines originating from the surface of the high-voltage electrode.

[0032] The critical volume processing module is used to perform electric field constraints and streamer criteria on the electric field modulus to determine the critical volume;

[0033] The effective electron avalanche processing module is used to process the rate at which ion desorption generates effective electron avalanches based on the critical volume and temperature values.

[0034] The variable parameter processing module is used to obtain a given voltage and, based on the rate at which effective electron avalanches are generated by ion desorption, derive the variable parameters of the surface discharge probability versus time at the given voltage.

[0035] The discharge initiation voltage prediction module is used to obtain the flashover probability and the preset probability reference value. When the flashover probability reaches 1 within the range of the preset probability reference value, the discharge initiation voltage is obtained.

[0036] Thirdly, this application provides a device for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator, including a memory and a processor. The memory stores a computer program, and the processor is configured to run the computer program to perform the surface discharge initiation voltage prediction method for the supporting insulator as described above.

[0037] Fourthly, this application provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, wherein the computer program is configured to execute the aforementioned method for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator when it is run.

[0038] In summary, compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the technical solution provided in this application include at least the following:

[0039] This application constructs a multiphysics simulation model of the supporting insulator. Based on the electric field modulus and temperature values ​​at the coordinates of the electric field lines originating from the high-voltage electrode surface, the critical volume is obtained. The rate of effective electron avalanche generated by ion desorption is obtained by processing the critical volume and temperature values. The discharge initiation voltage is then obtained by processing the rate of effective electron avalanche generated by ion desorption. This makes the assessment of the surface dielectric strength of the supporting insulator more accurate and improves the accuracy of predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage. Attached Figure Description

[0040] Figure 1 This is a schematic flowchart of a method for predicting the initiation voltage of surface discharge of a supporting insulator as described in an embodiment of this application.

[0041] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the CZT algorithm described in the embodiments of this application.

[0042] Figure 3 This is a schematic diagram of the process for establishing the physical field and inputting and outputting parameters of the model as described in the embodiments of this application.

[0043] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the extraction of surface electric field lines of the insulator as described in the embodiments of this application.

[0044] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of the structure for determining the initiation voltage of surface discharge as described in an embodiment of this application.

[0045] Figure 6 This is a quantitative relationship diagram between the Uip1 value of the basin-type support insulator and the insulation distance d1 as described in the embodiments of this application.

[0046] Figure 7 This is a quantitative relationship diagram between the Uip2 value of the cylindrical support insulator and the insulation distance d2 described in the embodiments of this application.

[0047] Figure 8 This is a quantitative relationship diagram between the Uip3 value of the cylindrical support insulator and the insulation distance d3 described in the embodiments of this application.

[0048] Figure 9 This is a schematic diagram of a module for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator, as described in an embodiment of this application.

[0049] Explanation of reference numerals in the attached figures:

[0050] 1. Model construction module; 2. Limitation module; 3. Critical volume processing module; 4. Effective electron avalanche processing module; 5. Variable parameter processing module; 6. Discharge initiation voltage prediction module. Detailed Implementation

[0051] The following combination Figures 1-9The present application will be described in further detail below. The terminology used in the embodiments of the present application is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting.

[0052] Reference Figure 1 The method for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator involved in this application specifically includes:

[0053] Step S1: Obtain the model input parameters and construct a multiphysics model of the supporting insulator based on the model input parameters;

[0054] Step S2: Set boundary conditions for the multiphysics model of the supporting insulator and perform mesh generation to obtain the electric field modulus and temperature values ​​at the coordinates of the electric field lines originating from the surface of the high-voltage electrode.

[0055] Step S3: Apply electric field constraints and streamer criteria to the electric field modulus to determine the critical volume;

[0056] Step S4: Obtain the rate of effective electron avalanche generated by ion desorption based on the critical volume and temperature values;

[0057] Step S5: Obtain a given voltage, and based on the rate at which effective electron avalanches are generated by ion desorption, derive the parameters of the change in surface discharge probability over time at the given voltage;

[0058] Step S6: Obtain the flashover probability and the preset probability reference value. If the flashover probability reaches 1 within the range of the preset probability reference value, obtain the discharge initiation voltage.

[0059] Specifically, this application embodiment constructs a multiphysics simulation model of the supporting insulator, obtains the critical volume based on the electric field modulus and temperature value at the coordinate point of the electric field line from the model to the surface of the high-voltage electrode, processes the critical volume and temperature value to obtain the rate of effective electron avalanche generated by ion desorption, and obtains the discharge initiation voltage based on the rate of effective electron avalanche generated by ion desorption. This makes the assessment of the surface dielectric strength of the supporting insulator more accurate and improves the accuracy of predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage.

[0060] Reference Figure 2 The model input parameters include current amplitude, voltage amplitude, and frequency. Specifically, a geometric model is established, with input parameters including current amplitude Imax, voltage amplitude Umax, and frequency f. The physical fields involved include solid-fluid heat transfer, laminar flow, surface-to-surface radiation, magnetic fields, and electric fields. The multiphysics fields involved include electromagnetic heat transfer, surface-to-surface radiation heat transfer, and non-isothermal flow. Based on the physical fields and multiphysics fields, the temperature and electric field distributions are obtained.

[0061] Specifically, the thermal field distribution processing steps are summarized as follows: The main heat source near the supporting insulator originates from the ohmic loss of the supporting metal rod. Its heat transfer mechanism can be divided into solid-state heat transfer, fluid-state heat transfer, and thermal radiation. Solid-state heat transfer occurs between the rod and the supporting insulator, and between the insulator and the tank. For two-dimensional axisymmetric structures like the supporting insulator, the heat transfer in the steady-state heat conduction process is determined by the thermal conductivity of the material, and the temperature distribution T is:

[0062]

[0063] In the formula, r and z are the radial and axial coordinates, respectively, λ refers to the thermal conductivity of the material, and Q is the heat difference between the solids.

[0064] Besides solid-state heat conduction, heat transfer to the supporting insulators can also be achieved through the convection of the insulating gas. Since the GIS tank is a closed environment, natural convection is the most important heat exchange method. Convective heat transfer is described using Newton's law of cooling:

[0065] q = hΔT, φ = AhΔT

[0066] In the formula, q is the heat flux density, h is the convective heat transfer coefficient, ΔT refers to the temperature difference of the surface of the object in the fluid domain, φ refers to the heat generated per unit volume of heat source per unit time, and A refers to the surface area of ​​the structure.

[0067] The thermal radiation process is described by the Stefan-Boltzmann equation, and the total thermal power Ψ radiated from the surface of the heat source is expressed as:

[0068] ψ=eδA1(T1 4 -T2 4 )

[0069] In the formula: A1 is the surface area of ​​the heat source; e is the surface emissivity; δ is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant; T1 is the surface temperature of the high-temperature object emitting radiation; and T2 is the surface temperature of the low-temperature object absorbing radiation.

[0070] The magnetic and electric field interfaces in the frequency domain provide the heat source in the simulation model. They are bidirectionally coupled with the solid and fluid heat transfer interfaces, and further, through laminar flow and surface-to-surface radiation interfaces, the heat transfer process is comprehensively considered to finally obtain the temperature field distribution under steady state.

[0071] Since material parameters are related to the temperature field, when the temperature reaches a steady state, the distribution of corresponding material parameters such as conductivity and dielectric constant is also determined. Based on the input voltage amplitude and frequency information, for insulating materials with certain temperature-dependent characteristics, when a sinusoidal voltage of frequency f is applied, the potential distribution V and the material parameters satisfy the following equation:

[0072]

[0073] In the formula, ε and σ are the dielectric constant and conductivity, respectively, ω is the angular frequency with a value of 2πf, and j is the imaginary unit. Based on the above formula, the electric field distribution under different operating conditions can be calculated, thus completing the construction of the multiphysics coupling model for the supporting insulator.

[0074] Reference Figure 3 Boundary conditions were set for the multiphysics model supporting the insulator, and meshing was performed to obtain the electric field modulus and temperature values ​​at the coordinates of the electric field lines originating from the high-voltage electrode surface. Specifically, after setting boundary conditions and meshing in the constructed model, multiphysics calculations were performed, and the calculation results were post-processed to extract the position coordinates of the electric field lines originating from the high-voltage electrode surface within a 1mm range of the insulator surface, and the electric field modulus and temperature values ​​at the corresponding coordinate points were extracted and summarized in a text file.

[0075] Having obtained the electric field modulus, we then obtain the electric field intensity value of the smooth electrode surface and correct the electric field modulus value based on this value. Since the high-voltage electrode surface is typically considered infinitely smooth in simulations, but in actual engineering, the surface roughness is generally on the order of μm, leading to increased local electric field intensity, this step considers the electrode surface roughness and uses the Pedersen correction method with a hemispherical approximation to correct the electric field modulus value obtained in the previous step. A single hemispherical protrusion on an ideal smooth electrode surface is used to approximate the rough structure. The radius Rmax of the hemispherical protrusion is equal to the maximum surface roughness Rz of the electrode, and the electric field intensity E(z) at the axis of symmetry of the protrusion satisfies:

[0076]

[0077] In the formula: E0 is the electric field strength on the ideal smooth electrode surface, and z is the distance from the point on the axis to the top of the protrusion. When the distance from the calculation point to the top of the protrusion is close to Rmax, E(z) is about 3E0. As z increases, E(z) decreases rapidly. When the distance from the calculation point to the top of the protrusion is 10Rmax, E(z) is basically consistent with the average field strength.

[0078] The rate of effective electron avalanche generation by ion desorption is obtained by processing the critical volume and temperature values; a given voltage is acquired, and the variation parameters of the surface discharge probability versus time at the given voltage are derived based on the rate of effective electron avalanche generation by ion desorption; the flashover probability and a preset probability reference value are acquired, and the discharge initiation voltage is obtained when the flashover probability reaches 1 within the preset probability reference value range. (Reference) Figure 4 Specifically, based on the corrected electric field distribution information, the critical volume Vcr is determined. The critical volume must satisfy the following two conditions:

[0079] E>E cr E cr = 87.75·p(V / m)

[0080]

[0081] This involves electric field constraint and streamer criterion. Within the critical volume Vcr, the electric field value E is greater than the critical electric field Ecr. In SF6 gas, Ecr is the gas pressure p multiplied by an empirical coefficient of 87.75. According to the streamer criterion, within the critical volume Vcr, the electric field line is integrated from the outside in. When the integral value is greater than K, the length of the electric field line xcr is recorded. The area enclosed by xcr is Vcr.

[0082] The calculation of the effective electron avalanche rate from ion desorption generally assumes that the initial electrons in SF6 insulating gas mainly originate from the field-assisted collisional desorption process of negative ions within the critical volume. The electron generation rate νne1 is calculated according to the following equation:

[0083]

[0084]

[0085] In the formula: the desorption coefficient kd is a coefficient related to the electric field strength E; the negative ion equilibrium concentration within parentheses is mainly related to the gas temperature T and pressure p; p0 is the atmospheric pressure, taken as 0.1 × 10⁵ Pa; and T0 is the room temperature, taken as 300 K. After obtaining the negative ion desorption rate, the generation rate of the effective electron avalanche within the critical volume is calculated according to the following formula.

[0086]

[0087]

[0088] In the formula: α and η are the ionization coefficient and adsorption coefficient of SF6 gas molecules, respectively, and Vw is the rate at which ions desorb and generate effective electron avalanches within the critical volume Vcr.

[0089] The trend of surface discharge probability under a given voltage as a function of time is calculated according to the following formula. When the flashover probability first reaches 1 within a 10ns range, the voltage is considered to be the discharge initiation voltage.

[0090]

[0091] This application's embodiments are based on finite element simulation calculations, considering multi-physics coupling, to obtain the electric and temperature field distributions of a given insulation system, and couple them into the calculation of the discharge initiation voltage. Compared with existing numerical solutions for discharge initiation voltage based on a single electric field, this method is closer to the actual operating conditions of the supporting insulator, and the relative error between the obtained discharge initiation voltage threshold and experimental results is smaller, making the assessment of the surface dielectric strength of the supporting insulator more accurate and improving the accuracy of predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage. Furthermore, the proposed numerical prediction method for the surface discharge initiation voltage of the supporting insulator is not limited to a certain voltage level or a specific insulator structure. It can modify the corresponding geometry and material properties in the simulation model according to the actual operating conditions of the equipment, exhibiting high universality. The compressed gas atmosphere on the gas side is not limited to SF6 insulating gas; for other gases such as compressed air or new insulating gases like perfluoroisobutyronitrile (PFOS), only the electron collision adhesion coefficient needs to be changed, resulting in better model applicability compared to existing methods.

[0092] As one implementation method, the geometric shape and insulation configuration of the basin-type supported insulator are as follows: Figure 5 As shown in (a), the middle high-voltage conductor bears high voltage and high current, while the outer metal tank is grounded and exposed to the atmosphere. The tank is filled with 0.5 MPa of SF6 insulating gas. The calculated Uip1 under different insulation distances d1 is as follows: Figure 6 As shown. By comparing Uip1 with the maximum operating voltage amplitude U1 that the actual insulation structure needs to withstand, the most economical and reliable insulation distance d1 can be determined.

[0093] As one implementation method, the geometric shape and insulation configuration of the cylindrical support insulator are as follows: Figure 5 As shown in (b), the upper high-voltage conductor bears high voltage and large current, while the bottom metal tank is grounded. This type of insulation is generally used in circuit breakers, and the tank is filled with SF6 insulating gas at 0.7–0.9 MPa. The trend of surface discharge probability over time at a given voltage is calculated. When the flashover probability first reaches 1 within a 10 ns range, this voltage is considered the discharge initiation voltage Uip2. The calculated Uip2 for different insulation distances d2 is as follows... Figure 7 As shown. By comparing Uip2 with the maximum operating voltage amplitude U2 that the actual insulation structure needs to withstand, the most economical and reliable insulation distance d2 can be determined.

[0094] As one implementation method, the geometric shape and insulation configuration of the column-supported insulator are as follows: Figure 5As shown in (c), the upper high-voltage conductor bears high voltage and large current, while the bottom metal tank is grounded. This type of insulation is generally used at corners in gas-insulated switchgear. The tank is filled with 0.5 MPa SF6 insulating gas. The trend of surface discharge probability over time at a given voltage is calculated. When the flashover probability first reaches 1 within a 10 ns range, this voltage is considered the discharge initiation voltage Uip3. The calculated Uip3 for different insulation distances d3 is as follows... Figure 8 As shown. By comparing Uip3 with the maximum operating voltage amplitude U2 that the actual insulation structure needs to withstand, the most economical and reliable insulation distance d3 can be determined.

[0095] Reference Figure 9 This application provides a system for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator, the system comprising:

[0096] The model construction module is used to obtain model input parameters and construct a multiphysics model of the supporting insulator based on the model input parameters.

[0097] The limiting module is used to set boundary conditions for the multiphysics model of the supporting insulator and perform mesh generation to obtain the electric field modulus and temperature values ​​at the coordinates of the electric field lines originating from the surface of the high-voltage electrode.

[0098] The critical volume processing module is used to perform electric field constraints and streamer criteria on the electric field modulus to determine the critical volume;

[0099] The effective electron avalanche processing module is used to process the rate at which ion desorption generates effective electron avalanches based on the critical volume and temperature values.

[0100] The variable parameter processing module is used to obtain a given voltage and, based on the rate at which effective electron avalanches are generated by ion desorption, derive the variable parameters of the surface discharge probability versus time at the given voltage.

[0101] The discharge initiation voltage prediction module is used to obtain the flashover probability and the preset probability reference value. When the flashover probability reaches 1 within the range of the preset probability reference value, the discharge initiation voltage is obtained.

[0102] This application provides a device for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator, including a memory and a processor. The memory stores a computer program, and the processor is configured to run the computer program to perform the surface discharge initiation voltage prediction method for the supporting insulator as described above.

[0103] This application provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program, wherein the computer program is configured to execute the aforementioned method for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator when it is run.

[0104] Those skilled in the art will clearly understand that, for the sake of convenience and brevity, the specific working process of the device and product described above can be referred to the corresponding process in the foregoing method embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0105] In the several embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed methods, systems, apparatus and program products can be implemented in other ways.

[0106] Furthermore, the functional units in the various embodiments of this application can be integrated into one processing unit, or each unit can exist physically separately, or two or more units can be integrated into one unit. The integrated unit can be implemented in hardware or as a software functional unit.

[0107] The above-described embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solutions of this application, and are not intended to limit them. Although this application has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that modifications can still be made to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments, or equivalent substitutions can be made to some of the technical features. Such modifications or substitutions do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of this application.

Claims

1. A method for predicting the initiation voltage of surface discharge in a supporting insulator, characterized in that, include: Obtain the model input parameters and construct a multiphysics model of the supporting insulator based on the model input parameters; Boundary conditions were set for the multiphysics model of the supporting insulator, and meshing was performed to obtain the electric field modulus and temperature values ​​at the coordinates of the electric field lines originating from the surface of the high-voltage electrode. The critical volume is determined by applying electric field constraints and streamer criteria to the electric field modulus. The rate of effective electron avalanche generation by ion desorption is obtained based on the critical volume and temperature values; the specific steps for obtaining the effective electron avalanche generation rate by ion desorption include acquiring the electron generation rate. Specifically, it includes: in, Here, T is the desorption coefficient, T is the gas temperature, and p is the pressure. This refers to the atmospheric pressure. Room temperature; The specific steps for determining the rate of effective electron avalanche generation by ion desorption further include processing the electron generation rate to obtain the rate of effective electron avalanche generation by ion desorption, specifically including: Where α is the ionization coefficient of the gas molecule, η is the adsorption coefficient of the gas molecule, and Vw is the rate at which ions desorb and generate effective electron avalanches within the critical volume Vcr. Given a voltage, based on the rate at which effective electron avalanches are generated by ion desorption, the parameters of the change in surface discharge probability versus time at the given voltage are obtained. Obtain the flashover probability and the preset probability reference value. When the flashover probability reaches 1 within the preset probability reference value range, obtain the discharge initiation voltage.

2. The method for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator according to claim 1, characterized in that, Also includes: Given the electric field modulus, the electric field intensity value of the smooth electrode surface is obtained, and the electric field modulus is corrected based on the electric field intensity value of the smooth electrode surface.

3. The method for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator according to claim 1, characterized in that, The model input parameters include current amplitude, voltage amplitude, and frequency.

4. The method for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator according to claim 3, characterized in that, The multiphysics model of the supporting insulator includes: Where ε is the dielectric constant, σ is the conductivity, ω is the angular frequency with a value of 2πf, and j is the imaginary unit.

5. The method for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator according to claim 2, characterized in that, The specific steps for correcting the electric field modulus based on the electric field intensity value of the smooth electrode surface are as follows: Where Rmax is the radius of the hemispherical protrusion. Let E(z) be the electric field strength on an ideal smooth electrode surface, z be the distance from a point on the axis to the top of the protrusion, and E(z) be the electric field magnitude.

6. A system for predicting the initiation voltage of surface discharge of a supporting insulator, characterized in that, include: The model construction module is used to obtain model input parameters and construct a multiphysics model of the supporting insulator based on the model input parameters. The limiting module is used to set boundary conditions for the multiphysics model of the supporting insulator and perform mesh generation to obtain the electric field modulus and temperature values ​​at the coordinates of the electric field lines originating from the surface of the high-voltage electrode. The critical volume processing module is used to perform electric field constraints and streamer criteria on the electric field modulus to determine the critical volume; An effective electron avalanche processing module is used to obtain the rate at which ion desorption generates an effective electron avalanche based on critical volume and temperature values; the specific steps for obtaining the rate at which ion desorption generates an effective electron avalanche include acquiring the electron generation rate. Specifically, it includes: in, Here, T is the desorption coefficient, T is the gas temperature, and p is the pressure. This refers to the atmospheric pressure. Room temperature; The specific steps for determining the rate of effective electron avalanche generation by ion desorption further include processing the electron generation rate to obtain the rate of effective electron avalanche generation by ion desorption, specifically including: Where α is the ionization coefficient of the gas molecule, η is the adsorption coefficient of the gas molecule, and Vw is the rate at which ions desorb and generate effective electron avalanches within the critical volume Vcr. The variable parameter processing module is used to obtain a given voltage and, based on the rate at which effective electron avalanches are generated by ion desorption, derive the variable parameters of the surface discharge probability versus time at the given voltage. The discharge initiation voltage prediction module is used to obtain the flashover probability and the preset probability reference value. When the flashover probability reaches 1 within the range of the preset probability reference value, the discharge initiation voltage is obtained.

7. A device for predicting the initiation voltage of surface discharge along a supporting insulator, characterized in that, The method includes a memory and a processor, the memory storing a computer program and the processor being configured to run the computer program to perform the method for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a support insulator as described in any one of claims 1-5.

8. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program, wherein the computer program is configured to execute, when run, the method for predicting the surface discharge initiation voltage of a supporting insulator as described in any one of claims 1-5.

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