A method and system for assessing the risk of a ship collision due to yawing

Abstract

The present application relates to the technical field of ship safety, in particular to a ship drift collision risk assessment method and system, the method comprising: obtaining bridge area water area ship driving real-time data; establishing a ship collision risk assessment model to assess the micro risk of the ship; according to the assessment result, determining whether the ship has collision risk and judging the collision risk level of the ship. Through the present application, the deficiency of low accuracy of traditional methods in dynamic water environment is effectively avoided, the safety of water traffic is improved, the micro collision risk of the ship is more standardized and accurately assessed, and more reliable decision basis is provided for ship operators and management agencies.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of ship safety technology, specifically to a method and system for assessing ship yaw collision risk. Background Technology

[0002] With increasingly busy waterways, preventing collisions between ships and structures such as bridges has become a critical issue. Traditional ship navigation systems typically rely on the experience of ship operators and navigation instruments, but this approach has certain limitations. Currently, many technologies exist for ship collision risk assessment; however, these technologies fall short in accurately assessing ship collision risk at the microscopic level.

[0003] Traditional ship collision risk assessment methods are usually based only on macroscopic data and fail to provide accurate assessments of microscopic collision risks. Therefore, a more detailed and accurate method for assessing ship yaw collision risks is needed to improve the safety and efficiency of water traffic.

[0004] The information disclosed in this background section is intended only to enhance the understanding of the general background of this disclosure and should not be construed as an admission or in any way implying that the information constitutes prior art known to those skilled in the art. Summary of the Invention

[0005] This invention provides a method and system for assessing the risk of ship yaw collisions, thereby effectively solving the problems pointed out in the background art.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows:

[0007] A method for assessing the risk of yaw collisions of a ship, the method comprising:

[0008] Obtain real-time data on vessel navigation in the waters surrounding the bridge;

[0009] Establish a ship collision risk assessment model to assess the micro-risks of ships;

[0010] Based on the assessment results, determine whether the vessel is at risk of collision and assess the collision risk level of the vessel.

[0011] Furthermore, the ship yaw collision risk assessment model is a multiplicative model based on the probabilities of two independent factors, namely the angle probability and the distance probability.

[0012] Further, the angle probability is obtained, including:

[0013] Based on real-time ship navigation data, obtain the closed graphical region formed by the ship's heading angle and the bridge pier's position point;

[0014] Obtain the current angular range of the ship's distance from each bridge pier, and calculate the angular probability based on the angular range.

[0015] Furthermore, based on real-time ship navigation data, the closed geometric region formed by the bridge pier locations is obtained, including:

[0016] Obtain the coordinate information of the location points of each pier on the bridge, wherein the coordinate information includes at least the vertex coordinate information of each pier;

[0017] Based on the coordinate information of the location points of each bridge pier, a near-circular region is fitted to each vertex of each bridge pier, and each region is the closed graphic region.

[0018] Further, the angular range of the ship's current distance from each bridge pier is obtained, and the angular probability is calculated based on the angular range, including:

[0019] Based on the angular range of the ship's current distance from each bridge pier, if the ship's heading angle falls within any of the angular ranges of the ship's current distance from each bridge pier, then the angular probability p... angle =1;

[0020] If the ship's heading angle is not within the range of the current distance between the ship and each pier, calculate the minimum angle between the ship and the pier using the following formula:

[0021] min angle =min(abs(ship) angle -θ1), abs(ship angle -θ2), abs(ship angle -θ3), abs(ship angle -θ4), …)

[0022] Where abs is the absolute value, and θ1, θ2, θ3, θ4… are the extreme values ​​of the angle range between the ship and one of the bridge piers; the angle probability is calculated using the following formula:

[0023]

[0024] Where 0.1 is an adjustment coefficient to avoid a denominator of 1, if the angle probability p is obtained. angle If p ≥ 1, then p angle =1.

[0025] Further, the distance probability is obtained by:

[0026] Based on real-time ship navigation data, the ship's distance from each bridge pier, ship speed, and ship tonnage are obtained.

[0027] Convert the ship speed and ship tonnage into distance indicators;

[0028] The distance probability is calculated based on the real-time distance and distance index.

[0029] Furthermore, the ship speed and tonnage are converted into distance indicators, including:

[0030] The formula for converting the ship's speed into the distance traveled in the next minute is:

[0031]

[0032] Among them, ship speed The speed of the ship;

[0033] The vessel's tonnage is converted into mooring distance, and the conversion standard is determined based on the vessel's deadweight tonnage and length.

[0034] Further, based on the real-time distance and the distance index, the distance probability is calculated, including:

[0035] Based on the real-time distance, the minimum distance between the ship and the bridge pier is calculated using the following formula:

[0036]

[0037] in, The minimum distance between the ship and the bridge pier, the ship dis1 shipx is2 ... represent the actual distances between each bridge pier and the ship;

[0038] The distance probability is calculated based on the minimum distance and the distance index, using the following formula:

[0039]

[0040] Where, p dis For distance probability, Let p be the stopping distance. dis <0 or p dis If p > 1, then p dis =1.

[0041] Furthermore, based on the assessment results, it is determined whether the vessel poses a collision risk and the collision risk level of the vessel is assessed, including:

[0042] If the probability of a ship colliding five times in a row is p rsik If the value is greater than 0.6, an alert will be sent. risk =p angle *p disThe low warning level is (0.6, 0.8], the medium warning level is (0.8, 0.9], and the high warning level is (0.9, 1).

[0043] A ship yaw collision risk assessment system, the system comprising:

[0044] The data acquisition module obtains real-time data on vessel navigation in the bridge area.

[0045] The risk assessment module establishes a ship collision risk assessment model to assess the micro-risks of ships.

[0046] The risk warning module determines whether a vessel is at risk of collision and assesses the level of collision risk based on the assessment results.

[0047] The technical solution of this invention can achieve the following technical effects:

[0048] It effectively avoids the shortcomings of traditional methods in assessing low accuracy in dynamic water environments, improves the safety of water traffic, and provides a more standardized and accurate assessment of the micro-collision risk of ships, providing a more reliable basis for decision-making by ship operators and management agencies.

[0049] The above description is only an overview of the technical solution of this application. In order to better understand the technical means of this application and to implement it in accordance with the contents of the specification, and to make the above and other objects, features and advantages of this application more obvious and understandable, the following are specific embodiments of this application. Attached Figure Description

[0050] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments recorded in the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings without creative effort.

[0051] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating a method for assessing the risk of yaw collisions from a ship.

[0052] Figure 2 A schematic diagram of the closed geometric region formed by the location points of the bridge piers;

[0053] Figure 3 A flowchart illustrating the process of obtaining distance probabilities. Detailed Implementation

[0054] The technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings of the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments.

[0055] Unless otherwise defined, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention pertains. The terminology used in this specification is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. The term "and / or" as used herein includes any and all combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.

[0056] Example 1

[0057] like Figure 1 As shown, the present invention provides a method for assessing the risk of ship yaw collision, the method comprising:

[0058] S100: Obtain real-time data on vessel navigation in the waters surrounding the bridge area;

[0059] Specifically, the bridge anti-ship collision yaw warning method proposed in this invention first needs to achieve real-time tracking of the ship's operating status. Therefore, the AIS transceiver and phased array radar are used to achieve real-time tracking of the ship's position, the water flow velocity meter is used to determine the water flow velocity and direction, and the 3D lidar and video detector are used to accurately determine the ship's size.

[0060] S200: Establish a ship collision risk assessment model to assess the micro-risks of ships;

[0061] Specifically, micro-risk assessment typically refers to a risk assessment of an individual vessel, that is, a comprehensive consideration of the probability of each vessel colliding. This assessment depends on the specific circumstances of the vessel, including multiple factors such as its position, speed, course, and size. Micro-risk assessment considers the likelihood of each vessel colliding with other objects (such as bridge piers or other vessels) in the current water environment. The goal of this assessment is to quantify the degree of risk of each vessel colliding with potential obstacles, thereby providing a basis for subsequent risk management and early warning.

[0062] S300: Based on the assessment results, determine whether the vessel is at risk of collision and assess the collision risk level of the vessel.

[0063] The technical solution of this invention effectively avoids the shortcomings of traditional methods in assessing low accuracy in dynamic water environments, improves the safety of water traffic, and provides a more standardized and accurate assessment of the micro-collision risk of ships, thus providing a more reliable basis for decision-making for ship operators and management agencies.

[0064] As a preferred embodiment of the above, the ship yaw collision risk assessment model is a multiplicative model based on the probabilities of two independent factors, namely the angle probability and the distance probability.

[0065] Specifically, choosing the above method to construct a ship yaw risk assessment model has the following advantages:

[0066] Taking into account multiple factors: The multiplicative model with two independent probabilities can more comprehensively consider multiple factors of ship yaw collisions. The angle probability and distance probability assess the collision risk from different perspectives, making the model more comprehensive and accurate.

[0067] Closer to reality: Ship yaw collision risk assessment needs to consider the complex relationship between the ship and the bridge structure, as well as the angle and distance between the ship and the bridge pier. By incorporating these two key factors into the probability model, the assessment is closer to the actual water traffic situation and improves the authenticity of the assessment.

[0068] Flexibility and adjustability: The probabilities of the two independent factors can be adjusted and optimized separately, making the model more flexible. If future research or practice finds that a certain factor has a more significant impact on risk, the model for that factor can be adjusted relatively independently without affecting the assessment of other parts.

[0069] As a preferred embodiment of the above, obtaining the angle probability includes:

[0070] A10: Based on real-time ship navigation data, obtain the closed graphical region formed by the ship's heading angle and the bridge pier position points;

[0071] A20: Obtain the current angular range of the ship's distance from each pier, and calculate the angular probability based on the angular range.

[0072] As a preferred embodiment of the above, such as Figure 2 As shown, based on real-time ship navigation data, the closed graphical region formed by the bridge pier locations is obtained, including:

[0073] A11: Obtain the coordinate information of the location points of each pier on the bridge, wherein the coordinate information includes at least the vertex coordinate information of each pier;

[0074] A12: Based on the coordinate information of each bridge pier's location point, each vertex of each bridge pier is fitted into a near-circular region, and each region is the closed graphic region.

[0075] Specifically, the accurate coordinates of each pier on the bridge structure are obtained, including the longitude and latitude of each pier in the horizontal plane. It is ensured that at least the vertex coordinate information of each pier is obtained. Using appropriate mathematical tools or fitting algorithms, the vertex of each pier is fitted to form a circular region. This can be done by least squares fitting or circular fitting algorithms, etc. The circular region formed by fitting the vertices of each pier is the closed graphical region.

[0076] As a preferred embodiment of the above, obtaining the angular range of the ship's current distance from each bridge pier, and calculating the angular probability based on the angular range, includes:

[0077] A21: Based on the angular range of the ship's current distance from each pier, if the ship's heading angle falls within the angular range of any given distance from each pier, then the angle probability p... angle =1;

[0078] A22: If the ship's heading angle is not within the range of the current distance from any of the bridge piers, calculate the minimum angle from the bridge pier using the following formula:

[0079] min angle =min(abs(ship) angle -θ1), abs(ship angle -θ2), abs(ship angle -θ3), abs(ship angle -θ4), …)

[0080] Where abs is the absolute value, and θ1, θ2, θ3, θ4... are the extreme values ​​of the angle range between the ship and one of the bridge piers, respectively;

[0081] A23: The formula for calculating the probability of an angle is:

[0082]

[0083] Where 0.1 is an adjustment coefficient to avoid the denominator being 1, if the angle probability p is obtained. angle If p ≥ 1, then p angle =1.

[0084] Specifically, by considering whether the ship's heading angle is within the angle range of each pier, the relative positional relationship between the ship and the pier is comprehensively assessed, which helps to understand the ship's navigation status in the bridge area waters more comprehensively. By calculating the minimum angle of the nearest pier, it is possible to flexibly adapt to different pier layouts. Therefore, using angle probability as an assessment indicator can effectively quantify the collision risk between the ship and the pier, providing specific numerical indicators for subsequent risk assessment.

[0085] As a preferred embodiment of the above, such as Figure 3 As shown, the distance probability is obtained, including:

[0086] B10: Based on real-time ship navigation data, obtain the ship's real-time distance from each bridge pier, ship speed, and ship tonnage;

[0087] B20: Converts ship speed and tonnage into distance indicators;

[0088] B30: Calculate distance probability based on real-time distance and distance metrics.

[0089] Specifically, the real-time distance between the ship and each bridge pier is obtained from the ship's actual navigation data. This reflects the ship's current relative position with the surrounding bridge piers. The ship's speed and tonnage information are extracted from the actual data. These are key parameters needed to assess the distance probability between the ship and the bridge pier. Using the transformed indicators and real-time distance, the distance probability is obtained through a specific calculation formula. This probability is used to quantify the distance relationship between the ship and the bridge pier, providing important reference data for subsequent risk assessment.

[0090] As a preferred embodiment of the above, converting ship speed and ship tonnage into distance indicators includes:

[0091] B21: The formula for converting ship speed into the distance traveled in the next 1 minute is:

[0092]

[0093] Among them, ship speed For ship speed;

[0094] B22: Convert ship tonnage into stopping distance. The conversion standard is determined based on the ship's deadweight tonnage and length.

[0095] Specifically, in this embodiment, ship tonnage is converted into mooring distance, and the ship tonnage conversion table is shown below:

[0096]

[0097] This conversion scheme is only a preferred option, and conversion standards for other ship tonnages should also be within the scope of protection of this invention.

[0098] As a preferred embodiment of the above, calculating the distance probability based on the real-time distance and distance index includes:

[0099] B31: Calculate the minimum distance between the ship and the bridge pier based on the real-time distance, using the following formula:

[0100]

[0101] in, The minimum distance between a ship and a bridge pier. dis1 ship dis2 ... represent the actual distances between each bridge pier and the ship;

[0102] B32: Calculate the distance probability based on the minimum distance and distance index, using the following formula:

[0103]

[0104] Where, p dis For distance probability, Let p be the distance to the stop. dis <0 or p dis If p > 1, then p dis =1.

[0105] Specifically, real-time distance is the current distance between the ship and the bridge pier, which is an important factor in assessing collision risk. By calculating the minimum distance between the ship and the bridge pier, the actual spatial relationship can be better reflected, improving the accuracy of collision risk assessment. By converting the ship's speed and tonnage into distance indicators, the dynamic characteristics of the ship can be taken into account, making the distance probability more comprehensive and realistic. Finally, by integrating factors such as the actual distance, speed, and tonnage between the ship and the bridge pier, the distance probability can be calculated, making the assessment results more comprehensive and integrated.

[0106] As a preferred embodiment of the above, determining whether a vessel faces a collision risk and assessing its collision risk level based on the evaluation results includes:

[0107] If the probability of a ship colliding five times in a row is p rsik If the value is greater than 0.6, an alert will be sent. risk =p angle *p dis The low warning level is (0.6, 0.8], the medium warning level is (0.8, 0.9], and the high warning level is (0.9, 1).

[0108] Specifically, the collision probability p risk The calculation employs a multiplicative model with two independent factors, where the angular probability p angle and distance probability p disMultiplication yields a multiplicative model that comprehensively considers the impact of different factors on collision risk. The existence of a sustained collision risk is determined by observing whether the collision probability of a ship is greater than 0.6 in five consecutive collisions. This involves continuous monitoring of the ship's operational status and assessing the trend of its collision probability over a period of time. Based on the collision probability values, different warning levels are assigned. In this embodiment, the thresholds are set as follows: (0.6, 0.8) for low warning level, (0.8, 0.9) for medium warning level, and (0.9, 1) for high warning level. Different warning levels reflect different degrees of collision risk, enabling the warning system to take more targeted measures.

[0109] Example 2

[0110] Based on the same inventive concept as the ship yaw collision risk assessment method in the foregoing embodiments, the present invention also provides a ship yaw collision risk assessment system, the system comprising:

[0111] The data acquisition module obtains real-time data on vessel navigation in the waters surrounding the bridge.

[0112] The risk assessment module establishes a ship collision risk assessment model to assess the micro-risks of ships.

[0113] The risk warning module determines whether a vessel is at risk of collision and assesses the collision risk level based on the assessment results.

[0114] The adjustment system described above in this invention can effectively realize the ship yaw collision risk assessment method, and the technical effects it can achieve are as described in the above embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0115] Although this application has been described in conjunction with specific features and embodiments, it is obvious that various modifications and combinations can be made thereto without departing from the spirit and scope of this application. Accordingly, this specification and drawings are merely exemplary illustrations of the application as defined herein, and are to be considered as covering any and all modifications, variations, combinations, or equivalents within the scope of this application. Clearly, those skilled in the art can make various alterations and modifications to this application without departing from its scope. Thus, if such modifications and modifications fall within the scope of this application and its equivalents, this application intends to include such modifications and modifications.

Claims

1. A method for assessing the risk of yaw collisions from ships, characterized in that, The method includes: Obtain real-time data on vessel navigation in the waters surrounding the bridge; A ship collision risk assessment model is established to assess the micro-risks of ships. The ship yaw collision risk assessment model is a multiplicative model based on the probabilities of two independent factors, namely, the angle probability and the distance probability. The probability of the angle is obtained by: Based on the real-time ship navigation data, obtain the closed graphical region formed by the ship's heading angle and the bridge pier position points; Obtain the angular range of the ship's current distance from each bridge pier, and calculate the angular probability based on the angular range; Obtaining the distance probability includes: Based on the real-time ship navigation data, the ship's real-time distance from each bridge pier, ship speed, and ship tonnage are obtained. Converting the ship speed and tonnage into distance indicators includes: The formula for converting the ship's speed into the distance traveled in the next minute is: ； in, The speed of the ship; The vessel tonnage is converted into mooring distance, and the conversion standard is determined based on the vessel's deadweight tonnage and length. Based on the real-time distance and distance metrics, the distance probability is calculated, including: Based on the real-time distance, the minimum distance between the ship and the bridge pier is calculated using the following formula: ； in, The minimum distance between the ship and the bridge pier, the The actual distance between each bridge pier and the ship; The distance probability is calculated based on the minimum distance and the distance index, using the following formula: ； in, For distance probability, For the stated stopping distance, if or ,but ; Based on the assessment results, determine whether the vessel is at risk of collision and assess the collision risk level of the vessel.

2. The method for assessing ship yaw collision risk according to claim 1, characterized in that, Based on real-time ship navigation data, a closed geometric region formed by the bridge pier locations is obtained, including: Obtain the coordinate information of the location points of each pier on the bridge, wherein the coordinate information includes at least the vertex coordinate information of each pier; Based on the coordinate information of the location points of each bridge pier, a near-circular region is fitted to each vertex of each bridge pier, and each region is the closed graphic region.

3. The method for assessing ship yaw collision risk according to claim 1, characterized in that, Obtain the angular range of the ship's current distance from each bridge pier, and calculate the angular probability based on the angular range, including: Based on the angular range of the ship's current distance from each bridge pier, if the ship's heading angle falls within any of the angular ranges of the ship's current distance from each bridge pier, then the angular probability... ; If the ship's heading angle is not within the range of the current distance between the ship and each pier, calculate the minimum angle between the ship and the pier using the following formula: ； in, For absolute values, For the ship's heading angle, These are the extreme values ​​of the angle range between the ship and one of the bridge piers; The probability of the angle is calculated using the following formula: ； Where 0.1 is an adjustment coefficient to avoid the denominator being 0, if the angle probability is obtained. ,but .

4. The method for assessing ship yaw collision risk according to claim 1, characterized in that, Based on the assessment results, determine whether the vessel poses a collision risk and assess the vessel's collision risk level, including: If the probability of a ship colliding 5 times in a row If the value is greater than 0.6, an alert will be sent. The low warning level is The level of warning is medium. The high level of warning is , Let be the angle probability.

5. A ship yaw collision risk assessment system, characterized in that, The system includes: The data acquisition module obtains real-time data on vessel navigation in the waters surrounding the bridge. The risk assessment module establishes a ship collision risk assessment model to assess the ship's micro-risks. The ship yaw collision risk assessment model is a multiplicative model based on the probabilities of two independent factors: angle probability and distance probability. The probability of the angle is obtained by: Based on the real-time ship navigation data, obtain the closed graphical region formed by the ship's heading angle and the bridge pier position points; Obtain the angular range of the ship's current distance from each bridge pier, and calculate the angular probability based on the angular range; Obtaining the distance probability includes: Based on the real-time ship navigation data, the ship's real-time distance from each bridge pier, ship speed, and ship tonnage are obtained. Converting the ship speed and tonnage into distance indicators includes: The formula for converting the ship's speed into the distance traveled in the next minute is: ； in, The speed of the ship; The vessel tonnage is converted into mooring distance, and the conversion standard is determined based on the vessel's deadweight tonnage and length. Based on the real-time distance and distance metrics, the distance probability is calculated, including: Based on the real-time distance, the minimum distance between the ship and the bridge pier is calculated using the following formula: ； in, The minimum distance between the ship and the bridge pier, the The actual distance between each bridge pier and the ship; The distance probability is calculated based on the minimum distance and the distance index, using the following formula: ； in, For distance probability, For the stated stopping distance, if or ,but ; The risk warning module determines whether a vessel is at risk of collision and assesses the collision risk level based on the assessment results.

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