Methods, apparatus, equipment and media for determining the reliability of natural gas pipeline systems

Abstract

This invention discloses a method, apparatus, equipment, and medium for determining the reliability of a natural gas pipeline network system, relating to the field of natural gas pipeline network technology. The method includes: inputting the basic parameters of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined into a pipeline network operation state simulation model; determining the state transition process of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined; processing the state transition process using a gas supply calculation method coupled with a hydrothermal model to obtain the variation patterns of flow rate and pressure; and determining the reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined based on the gas supply reliability index and the variation patterns of flow rate and pressure. This invention, through a pipeline network operation state model and a coupled hydrothermal model, can determine the final reliability of a natural gas pipeline network system from an economic perspective.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of natural gas pipeline technology, and in particular to a method, apparatus, equipment, and medium for determining the reliability of a natural gas pipeline system. Background Technology

[0002] The safe and efficient operation of natural gas pipeline systems has always been a key focus for operating companies.

[0003] Currently, the primary method for determining the target reliability of natural gas pipelines is based on the concept of risk. This involves using limit state models to simulate and calculate the probability of pipeline failure, and then combining this with the consequences of failure to arrive at the pipeline's risk level. While this method has been applied in the field of natural gas pipeline design, it is only applicable to single pipeline systems and cannot be applied to network systems. For pipelines in operation, different operating schemes result in varying economic inputs and losses; therefore, operating companies must consider both reliability and economic efficiency. Summary of the Invention

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by this invention is to address the shortcomings of existing technologies. Specifically, it provides a method, apparatus, equipment, and medium for determining the reliability of a natural gas pipeline network system, as detailed below:

[0005] 1) In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for determining the reliability of a natural gas pipeline network system, the specific technical solution of which is as follows:

[0006] The basic parameters of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined are input into the pipeline network operation state simulation model to determine the state transition process of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined.

[0007] The state transition process is processed by using the gas supply calculation method coupled with the hydrothermal model to obtain the variation law of flow rate and pressure.

[0008] The reliability of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined is determined based on the gas supply reliability index of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined, the variation law of the flow rate and pressure.

[0009] The beneficial effects of the reliability determination method for natural gas pipeline network systems provided by this invention are as follows:

[0010] The final reliability of a natural gas pipeline system can be determined from an economic perspective by using pipeline operation status models and coupled hydrothermal models.

[0011] Based on the above solution, the present invention can be further improved as follows.

[0012] Furthermore, the basic parameters include: the failure rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability is to be determined and the maintenance rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability is to be determined.

[0013] Furthermore, the state transition process includes: the state transition time and the operating status of different units of the natural gas pipeline network system at different times.

[0014] Furthermore, the process of determining the reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is as follows:

[0015] The reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is determined by a first formula, which is:

[0016]

[0017] Among them, f i R represents the feasibility of improving the reliability of unit i. i，min R represents the original reliability of unit i; i，max C(p) represents the maximum reliability of unit i in the current state. i ) indicates that R i express.

[0018] 2) In a second aspect, the present invention also provides a reliability determination device for a natural gas pipeline network system, the specific technical solution of which is as follows:

[0019] The determination module is used to: input the basic parameters of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined into the pipeline network operation state simulation model, and determine the state transition process of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined;

[0020] The processing module is used to: process the state transition process by using the gas supply calculation method of the coupled hydrothermal model to obtain the change law of flow rate and pressure;

[0021] The calculation module is used to determine the reliability of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined based on the gas supply reliability index of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined, the variation law of the flow rate and pressure.

[0022] Based on the above solution, the present invention can be further improved as follows.

[0023] Furthermore, the basic parameters include: the failure rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability is to be determined and the maintenance rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability is to be determined.

[0024] Furthermore, the state transition process includes: the state transition time and the operating status of different units of the natural gas pipeline network system at different times.

[0025] Furthermore, the process of determining the reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is as follows:

[0026] The reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is determined by a first formula, which is:

[0027]

[0028] Among them, f i R represents the feasibility of improving the reliability of unit i. i，min R represents the original reliability of unit i; i，max C(p) represents the maximum reliability of unit i in the current state. i ) indicates that R i express.

[0029] 3) In a third aspect, the present invention also provides a computer device, the computer device including a processor coupled to a memory, the memory storing at least one computer program, the at least one computer program being loaded and executed by the processor to enable the computer device to implement any of the above methods.

[0030] 4) In a fourth aspect, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing at least one computer program, which is loaded and executed by a processor to enable a computer to implement any of the above methods.

[0031] It should be noted that the beneficial effects of the technical solutions of the second to fourth aspects of the present invention and their corresponding possible implementations can be found in the above description of the technical effects of the first aspect and its corresponding possible implementations, and will not be repeated here. Attached Figure Description

[0032] Other features, objects, and advantages of the invention will become more apparent from the following detailed description of non-limiting embodiments with reference to the accompanying drawings:

[0033] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating a method for determining the reliability of a natural gas pipeline network system according to an embodiment of the present invention.

[0034] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the structural framework of a computer device;

[0035] Figure 3 This is one of the flowcharts illustrating a method for determining the reliability of a natural gas pipeline network system according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0036] Figure 4 This is a second schematic flowchart of a method for determining the reliability of a natural gas pipeline network system according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0037] Figure 5A schematic diagram for determining the target reliability. Detailed Implementation

[0038] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of the present invention clearer, the embodiments of the present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0039] like Figure 1 , Figure 3 as well as Figure 4 As shown in the figure, a reliability determination method for a natural gas pipeline network system according to an embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps:

[0040] S1, input the basic parameters of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined into the pipeline network operation state simulation model, and determine the state transition process of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined;

[0041] S2, by using the gas supply calculation method of the coupled hydrothermal model, the state transition process is processed to obtain the change law of flow rate and pressure;

[0042] S3, determine the reliability of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined based on the gas supply reliability index of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined, the variation law of the flow rate and pressure.

[0043] The beneficial effects of the reliability determination method for natural gas pipeline network systems provided by this invention are as follows:

[0044] The final reliability of a natural gas pipeline system can be determined from an economic perspective by using pipeline operation status models and coupled hydrothermal models.

[0045] S1, input the basic parameters of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined into the pipeline network operation state simulation model, and determine the state transition process of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined. Wherein:

[0046] The natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined refers to the entire natural gas pipeline system, including at least two natural gas pipelines. Each pipeline and each bend has a unique identifier. According to actual needs, the natural gas pipelines are divided into regions or functions, forming different nodes or units. Each unit or node has a unique identifier, and the pipelines and bends contained in each node or unit are integrated. That is, by obtaining the identifier of any unit or node, the corresponding pipeline and bend can be extracted.

[0047] Basic parameters include, but are not limited to, the failure rate and maintenance rate of each unit or node. It should be noted that the unit or node has already been given above; here, it needs to be emphasized that, in this scheme, "unit" can refer broadly to the basic components of the natural gas pipeline system whose reliability needs to be determined, including pipe segment units and compressor units. The failure rate and maintenance rate of units or nodes can also be obtained in two ways:

[0048] The first method involves determining the total number of pipes and bends in any given unit or node, determining the number of all failed pipes and bends in that unit or node before the current time, and determining the failure rate of that unit or node based on the number of failed pipes and the total number of failed pipes and bends.

[0049] Similarly, for maintenance rate, determine the total number of pipes and bends in any unit or node, and determine the number of all pipes and bends that have been repaired in that unit or node before the current time. Determine the maintenance rate of that unit or node based on the number of repaired pipes and bends and the total number of repaired pipes and bends.

[0050] The second method involves using fault data, failure data, and maintenance history data of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined, and referencing existing reliability databases, to determine the failure rate and maintenance rate. Specifically:

[0051] Existing reliability databases include, but are not limited to, the EGIG database, the PHMSA database, and the OREDA database.

[0052] The process of determining failure rate and repair rate by referring to existing reliability databases can be achieved using existing technologies.

[0053] The pipeline network operation status simulation model refers to the process of processing failure rate and maintenance rate to obtain the state transition process corresponding to each unit or node. The state transition process refers to the current operating state of each node or unit and the state transition time.

[0054] The current operating status can be either failed or running normally.

[0055] The state transition time refers to the time it takes to transition from one state to the next.

[0056] The temporal Monte Carlo method is used to improve the simulation model of the operation state of the natural gas pipeline network. The influence of high-order failure events is considered. The operation state of the natural gas pipeline network system with undetermined reliability is simulated, and the transition time of the operation state of the natural gas pipeline network system with undetermined reliability and the corresponding unit state are recorded.

[0057] Simulating the operating state of a natural gas pipeline network system with a known reliability refers to: using Monte Carlo state sampling to extract the state space of each unit's operation, thereby simulating the state of the natural gas pipeline network system with a known reliability at the current moment.

[0058] State space refers to the set of states.

[0059] S2, by using the gas supply calculation method coupled with a hydrothermal model, the state transition process is processed to obtain the variation patterns of flow rate and pressure. Wherein:

[0060] The coupled hydrothermal model refers to the operating state, using specialized general-purpose software.

[0061] The gas supply calculation method refers to searching the preset gas supply table based on the current operating state and the state transition time to obtain the flow rate and pressure value at the current moment. The same method is used to determine the flow rate and pressure value at the next moment. The flow rate change pattern is determined by the flow rate value at the current moment and the flow rate value at the next moment. Similarly, the pressure change pattern is determined by the pressure value at the current moment and the pressure value at the next moment.

[0062] S3, determine the reliability of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined based on the gas supply reliability index of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined, the variation patterns of the flow rate and pressure. Wherein:

[0063] Gas supply reliability indicators are generated from the characteristics of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined.

[0064] The main characteristic is that it emphasizes the complexity of the pipeline network system, which is different from the function of ordinary pipelines, such as having a large number of users and complex inter-pipeline connections and transportation.

[0065] Gas supply reliability indicators characterize the integrity of the gas supply function of the pipeline network, including time and gas supply reliability indicators. Examples include gas supply interruption time and gas supply adequacy indicators.

[0066] The process of determining reliability based on gas supply reliability indicators, flow rate, and pressure variation patterns is as follows:

[0067] Based on the preset mapping table, search for the reliability corresponding to the gas supply reliability index, flow rate change pattern, and pressure change pattern.

[0068] In another embodiment of this scheme, S1-S3 are repeated to obtain the expected value of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system, thereby evaluating the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined. The calculation results are discrete values, and repeated calculations are used to stabilize the results; different states result in different pressure and flow rates, and thus different reliability values.

[0069] Using the minimum total cost as the objective function, and combining it with the pipeline gas supply reliability calculation model, a functional model of cost versus reliability is obtained:

[0070]

[0071] In the formula, f i This indicates the feasibility of improving the reliability of unit i, 0 < f i <1, a larger value indicates that it is easier to improve the reliability of this unit; R i，min R represents the original reliability of unit i; i，max This represents the maximum reliability that unit i can achieve under the current state.

[0072] The gas supply reliability calculation model refers to a model used to calculate the reliability of different units.

[0073] From an investment-benefit perspective, applying economic risk theory, based on enhancement schemes that improve the pipeline system's ability to complete gas transmission tasks, the cost of reliability enhancement is calculated. Considering the cost of losses due to the pipeline system failing to complete its gas transmission tasks, a trade-off is made between reliability and economy, adhering to the principle of minimizing total cost, and the target reliability is obtained through optimized decision-making. The target reliability of the pipeline system is determined as follows: Figure 5 As shown.

[0074] Target reliability determination model:

[0075]

[0076]

[0077] In the formula, x and R represent the production and operation scheme of the pipeline system during the study period and the reliability of the pipeline system under the scheme, respectively. The system reliability here represents the pipeline system's ability to complete the gas transmission task; x* and R* are decision variables, representing the optimal pipeline operation scheme and the target reliability, respectively; C Total (x,R) represents the total cost; C Investment (x,R) represents the investment cost of improving the natural gas pipeline network's ability to complete gas transmission tasks by adjusting its initial reliability R0 to R; C Failure (x,R) represents the loss cost of the gas pipeline network due to the adjustment of the initial reliability R0 to R, which includes the direct economic losses caused by the pipeline network's failure to deliver gas and the compensation losses to the shipper.

[0078] The content of this plan is to determine the target reliability by balancing the costs and benefits of the reliability level of the natural gas pipeline network system.

[0079] Under the selected pipeline operation scheme, its system reliability is calculated. Then, combined with the pipeline gas supply reliability calculation method, functional relationships are established between the investment cost of improving the ability to complete the gas transmission task and the system reliability, and between the loss cost of failing to complete the gas transmission task and the system reliability. Using operations research methods, with the minimum total cost as the objective function, the corresponding system reliability is calculated, thereby obtaining the target reliability with the pipeline system completing the gas transmission task as the objective.

[0080] The main contents include: calculating the reliability of gas supply from the pipeline network, establishing the functional relationship between cost and reliability, and calculating and determining the target reliability of the pipeline network system.

[0081] Based on natural gas pipeline failure data and gas consumption forecasts, a reliability index characterizing the gas supply capacity of the pipeline system is established. Considering the uncertainty of the system's operating state, a topology analysis and pipeline transportation process calculation are performed on the pipeline system. Coupled with the steady-state hydrothermal characteristics of the natural gas pipeline network, a method for calculating the reliability of natural gas pipeline network supply is established.

[0082] There are two types of costs related to gas supply reliability in natural gas pipeline systems: the economic losses due to gas shortages in the pipeline network and the investment costs of improving gas supply reliability.

[0083] The economic cost of gas shortages in a pipeline network is the expected value of the loss caused by the failure of the natural gas pipeline network to fully guarantee demand; that is, the economic loss resulting from reduced gas supply reliability. The economic cost of gas shortages in a pipeline network is related to the reliability of the gas supply, user type, user gas demand, contract status, and the research period. By calculating the economic losses caused by gas shortages in a pipeline network under different gas supply reliability conditions, and using data processing methods such as machine learning or data regression, a functional relationship between the economic cost of gas shortages in a pipeline network and the reduction in gas supply reliability can be obtained.

[0084] The cost of improving gas supply reliability refers to the increased or decreased expenses incurred by measures or plans taken to enhance or reduce the gas supply capacity of the pipeline network, based on its current status and operational plan. These costs include equipment and material costs, construction costs, operation, maintenance and repair costs, and investment returns, and can be positive or negative. Here, the measures or plans taken to enhance or reduce the gas supply reliability of the pipeline network are collectively referred to as gas supply reliability enhancement plans. These include constructing new pipelines and gas storage facilities, increasing or decreasing compressor units or compressor stations, increasing or decreasing spare parts, changing maintenance cycles, and changing transmission or distribution plans. By calculating the costs and gas supply reliability corresponding to the gas supply reliability enhancement plans, and using data processing methods such as machine learning or data regression, a functional relationship between the cost of improving gas supply reliability and reliability can be obtained.

[0085] The cost function represents the relationship between reliability and cost, encompassing the total human, material, and financial resources required to improve unit reliability. Representative cost function models include: Lagrange model, power model, exponential model, logarithmic model, and three-parameter model.

[0086] Furthermore, the basic parameters include: the failure rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability is to be determined and the maintenance rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability is to be determined.

[0087] Furthermore, the state transition process includes: the state transition time and the operating status of different units of the natural gas pipeline network system at different times.

[0088] Furthermore, the process of determining the reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is as follows:

[0089] The reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is determined by a first formula, which is:

[0090]

[0091] Among them, f i R represents the feasibility of improving the reliability of unit i. i，min R represents the original reliability of unit i; i，max C(p) represents the maximum reliability of unit i in the current state. i ) indicates that R i express.

[0092] In the above embodiments, although the steps are numbered S1, S2, etc., they are only specific embodiments given by the present invention. Those skilled in the art can adjust the execution order of S1, S2, etc. according to the actual situation, which is also within the protection scope of the present invention. It can be understood that in some embodiments, some or all of the above embodiments may be included.

[0093] The present invention also provides a reliability determination device for a natural gas pipeline network system, the specific technical solution of which is as follows:

[0094] The determination module is used to: input the basic parameters of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined into the pipeline network operation state simulation model, and determine the state transition process of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined;

[0095] The processing module is used to: process the state transition process by using the gas supply calculation method of the coupled hydrothermal model to obtain the change law of flow rate and pressure;

[0096] The calculation module is used to determine the reliability of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined based on the gas supply reliability index of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined, the variation law of the flow rate and pressure.

[0097] Based on the above solution, the present invention can be further improved as follows.

[0098] Furthermore, the basic parameters include: the failure rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability is to be determined and the maintenance rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability is to be determined.

[0099] Furthermore, the state transition process includes: the state transition time and the operating status of different units of the natural gas pipeline network system at different times.

[0100] Furthermore, the process of determining the reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is as follows:

[0101] The reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is determined by a first formula, which is:

[0102]

[0103] Among them, f i R represents the feasibility of improving the reliability of unit i. i，min R represents the original reliability of unit i; i，max C(p) represents the maximum reliability of unit i in the current state. i ) indicates that R i express.

[0104] It should be noted that the beneficial effects of the reliability determination device for a natural gas pipeline system provided in the above embodiments are the same as those of the reliability determination method for a natural gas pipeline system described above, and will not be repeated here. Furthermore, the system provided in the above embodiments is only illustrated by the division of the above functional modules. In practical applications, the above functions can be assigned to different functional modules as needed, that is, the system can be divided into different functional modules according to the actual situation to complete all or part of the functions described above. In addition, the system and method embodiments provided in the above embodiments belong to the same concept, and their specific implementation process is detailed in the method embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0105] like Figure 2As shown, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer device 300, which includes a processor 320 coupled to a memory 310. The memory 310 stores at least one computer program 330, which is loaded and executed by the processor 320 to enable the computer device 300 to implement any of the above-described methods. Specifically:

[0106] The computer device 300 can vary considerably due to differences in configuration or performance. It may include one or more processors 320 (Central Processing Units, CPUs) and one or more memories 310. The one or more memories 310 store at least one computer program 330, which is loaded and executed by the one or more processors 320 to enable the computer device 300 to implement the reliability determination method for a natural gas pipeline network system provided in the above embodiments. Of course, the computer device 300 may also have wired or wireless network interfaces, a keyboard, and input / output interfaces for input and output. The computer device 300 may also include other units for implementing device functions, which will not be elaborated upon here.

[0107] An embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium storing at least one computer program, which is loaded and executed by a processor to enable a computer to implement any of the above-described methods.

[0108] Alternatively, the computer-readable storage medium may be a read-only memory (ROM), a random access memory (RAM), a compact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), magnetic tape, a floppy disk, and an optical data storage device, etc.

[0109] In an exemplary embodiment, a computer program product or computer program is also provided, the computer program product or computer program including computer instructions stored in a computer-readable storage medium. A processor of a computer device reads the computer instructions from the computer-readable storage medium, and the processor executes the computer instructions, causing the computer device to perform any of the methods described above.

[0110] It should be noted that the terms "first," "second," etc., used in the specification and claims of this application are used to distinguish similar objects and represent a limitation on a specific order or sequence. Where appropriate, the order of use for similar objects can be interchanged so that the embodiments of this application described herein can be implemented in an order other than that shown or described.

[0111] Those skilled in the art will recognize that this invention can be implemented as a system, method, or computer program product. Therefore, this disclosure can be specifically implemented in the following forms: it can be entirely hardware, entirely software (including firmware, resident software, microcode, etc.), or a combination of hardware and software, generally referred to herein as a "circuit," "module," or "system." Furthermore, in some embodiments, this invention can also be implemented as a computer program product in one or more computer-readable media containing computer-readable program code.

[0112] Any combination of one or more computer-readable media may be used. A computer-readable medium can be a computer-readable signal medium or a computer-readable storage medium. A computer-readable storage medium can be, for example, but not limited to, an electrical, magnetic, optical, electromagnetic, infrared, or semiconductor system, apparatus, or device, or any combination thereof. More specific examples (a non-exhaustive list) of computer-readable storage media include: an electrical connection having one or more wires, a portable computer disk, a hard disk, random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM or flash memory), optical fiber, portable compact disk read-only memory (CD-ROM), optical storage device, magnetic storage device, or any suitable combination thereof. In this document, a computer-readable storage medium can be any tangible medium that contains or stores a program that can be used by or in connection with an instruction execution system, apparatus, or device.

[0113] Although embodiments of the present invention have been shown and described above, it is understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the present invention. Those skilled in the art can make changes, modifications, substitutions and variations to the above embodiments within the scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining the reliability of a natural gas pipeline network system, characterized in that, include: The basic parameters of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined are input into the pipeline network operation state simulation model to determine the state transition process of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined. The state transition process is processed by using the gas supply calculation method coupled with the hydrothermal model to obtain the variation law of flow rate and pressure. The reliability of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined is determined based on the gas supply reliability index of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined, the variation law of the flow rate and pressure; The gas supply calculation method refers to searching the preset gas supply table based on the current operating state and the state transition time to obtain the flow rate and pressure value at the current time. The same method is used to determine the flow rate and pressure value at the next time. The flow rate change pattern is determined by the flow rate value at the current time and the flow rate value at the next time. Similarly, the pressure change pattern is determined by the pressure value at the current time and the pressure value at the next time. The basic parameters include: the failure rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined and the maintenance rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined; The state transition process includes: the state transition time and the operating status of different units of the natural gas pipeline network system at different times; The process of determining the reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is as follows: The reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is determined by a first formula, which is: ； Among them, f i R represents the feasibility of improving the reliability of unit i. i，min R represents the original reliability of unit i; i，max This represents the maximum reliability of unit i under the current state. Indicates system reliability. This indicates the reliability of unit i.

2. A reliability determination device for a natural gas pipeline network system, employing the reliability determination method for a natural gas pipeline network system as described in claim 1, characterized in that, include: The determination module is used to: input the basic parameters of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined into the pipeline network operation state simulation model, and determine the state transition process of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined; The processing module is used to: process the state transition process by using the gas supply calculation method of the coupled hydrothermal model to obtain the change law of flow rate and pressure; The calculation module is used to determine the reliability of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined based on the gas supply reliability index of the natural gas pipeline system to be determined, the variation law of the flow rate and pressure.

3. The reliability determination device for a natural gas pipeline network system according to claim 2, characterized in that, The basic parameters include: the failure rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined and the maintenance rate of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined.

4. The reliability determination device for a natural gas pipeline network system according to claim 2, characterized in that, The state transition process includes: the state transition time and the operating status of different units of the natural gas pipeline network system at different times.

5. The reliability determination device for a natural gas pipeline network system according to claim 2, characterized in that, The process of determining the reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is as follows: The reliability of the natural gas pipeline network system whose reliability needs to be determined is determined by a first formula, which is: ； Among them, f i R represents the feasibility of improving the reliability of unit i. i，min R represents the original reliability of unit i; i，max This represents the maximum reliability of unit i under the current state. express, express.

6. A computer device, characterized in that, The computer device includes a processor coupled to a memory storing at least one computer program, which is loaded and executed by the processor to enable the computer device to perform the method as described in claim 1.

7. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that, The computer-readable storage medium stores at least one computer program, which is loaded and executed by a processor to enable the computer to perform the method as described in claim 1.

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