A power distribution network multi-dimensional planning method and system considering extreme natural disasters

Abstract

The present application relates to disaster power grid resource deployment technical field, specifically, it is a kind of power distribution network multidimensional planning method and system considering extreme natural disaster, the problem solved by the present application: before extreme weather comes, how to consider the fluctuation of working cable own working state, improve the accuracy of safety hidden danger determination problem, to solve the above problems, the present application provides a kind of planning method, including: store the power supply load curve of working cable in target time;According to the power supply load curve of reference working day, obtain the loss of working cable under extreme weather, and calculate the early warning threshold of working cable under various extreme weather according to the loss;According to weather forecast, the extreme influence value corresponding to each extreme weather and the duration of each extreme weather are calculated, and the extreme duration is recorded;The extreme influence value is compared with the early warning threshold, and the risk probability of working cable failure is calculated.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of disaster power grid resource allocation technology, and more specifically, to a multi-dimensional planning method and system for distribution networks that takes into account extreme natural disasters. Background Technology

[0002] In recent years, due to global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have increased significantly. The probability of damage to working cables during extreme weather is far higher than usual. Furthermore, the difficulty of repairing working cables in extreme weather is significantly increased. Currently, it is possible to accurately predict the arrival of extreme weather based on weather forecasts and historical data. Pre-emptive maintenance of working cables with potential safety hazards before extreme weather can greatly reduce the probability of failure. However, current technologies often determine safety hazards based solely on the normal operating conditions of working cables, without considering the changes in their operating conditions during extreme weather. This leads to many cables that should have been maintained in advance not being maintained, resulting in short-circuit faults, tripping, and large-scale power outages. Therefore, how to consider the fluctuations in the operating conditions of working cables before extreme weather to improve the accuracy of safety hazard identification is one of the urgent problems that those skilled in the art need to solve. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The problem this invention addresses is how to consider the fluctuations in the working state of the cable itself before extreme weather arrives, thereby improving the accuracy of identifying safety hazards.

[0004] To address the aforementioned problems, this invention provides a multi-dimensional planning method for power distribution networks considering extreme natural disasters. The planning method includes: establishing a data management database, adding all working cables within a target area to the database, and storing the power supply load curves of the working cables within a target time period; acquiring daily weather conditions for the target area within the target time period, using workdays with extreme weather as reference workdays and workdays without extreme weather as baseline workdays; obtaining the loss status of the working cables under extreme weather conditions based on the power supply load curves of the reference workdays, and calculating the warning thresholds for the working cables under various extreme weather conditions based on the loss status; acquiring weather forecasts for the future, and determining whether extreme weather events will occur based on the weather forecasts. If extreme weather is present, record the work log for potential extreme weather as a management work day. Calculate the extreme impact value and duration of each extreme weather event based on the weather forecast, and record this as the extreme duration. Compare the extreme impact value with the warning threshold. If the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, calculate the adjustment difference based on the extreme impact value and the warning threshold. Calculate the probability of a fault in the working cable based on the adjustment difference. If the probability of a fault in the working cable is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, record the working cable as a cable to be maintained. Determine the maintenance method for the cable to be maintained based on its impact range and extreme duration. If the probability of a fault is less than the risk threshold, the working cable does not require maintenance. Otherwise, the working cable does not require maintenance.

[0005] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by this solution are as follows: By establishing a data management database, all working cables within the target area can be controlled; the power supply load curve within the target time period can be obtained, making the power supply status of the working cables more consistent with the current working environment and reducing the impact of the working cable's own losses on the power supply load curve; the classification of baseline working days and reference working days allows for rapid data retrieval from the data management database during extreme weather events; the setting of early warning thresholds allows for assessment of the load capacity of each working cable based on the power supply load curve; the setting of extreme impact values ​​allows for judgment based on relevant data from extreme weather events, making the selection of cables to be maintained more accurate; and the setting of risk probability and risk thresholds allows for the determination of the failure probability of each cable to be maintained in the face of extreme weather, enabling maintenance personnel to rationally arrange maintenance work according to the actual situation, further improving the rationality of the planning method.

[0006] In one embodiment of the present invention, the weather conditions of the target area are obtained daily within a target time period, and work logs with extreme weather are designated as reference work logs, while work logs without extreme weather are designated as baseline work logs. Specifically, this includes: obtaining the weather type for each work log, which includes sunny, cloudy, rainy, foggy, and snowy weather; when the weather type is cloudy or foggy, the work log is designated as the baseline work log; when the weather type is sunny, rainy, or snowy, the current work log is determined as a reference work log based on the extreme duration and extreme impact value.

[0007] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by adopting this technical solution are as follows: the setting of extreme duration and extreme impact values ​​makes the determination of the baseline working day more accurate, and avoids interference caused by short-term extreme weather in the determination of maintenance cables.

[0008] In one embodiment of the present invention, the loss status of the working cable under extreme weather conditions is obtained based on the power supply load curve of a reference workday, and the warning threshold of the working cable under various extreme weather conditions is calculated based on the loss status. Specifically, this includes: analyzing the power supply load curve to obtain the power supply fluctuation of the working cable within the extreme duration; obtaining the extreme level of the extreme weather corresponding to the reference workday, and determining the basic influence coefficient of the working cable under extreme weather conditions based on the power supply fluctuation and the extreme level; obtaining the basic loss rate of the working cable from the data management database, correcting the basic loss rate based on the basic influence coefficient to obtain the corrected loss rate; and calculating the warning threshold based on the corrected loss rate and the basic loss rate.

[0009] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by this solution are as follows: By analyzing the extreme weather encountered by the working cable within the target time, the changes in the power supply load of the working cable under various extreme weather conditions are obtained, and the extreme level is determined. The extreme weather encountered by the working cable can be classified according to its degree of extremeness. Then, the basic influence coefficient is calculated in combination with the power supply fluctuation, making the basic influence coefficient more consistent with the actual working conditions of the working cable. The calculation of the loss rate is corrected by combining the natural loss of the working cable with the additional loss of extreme weather, which more intuitively reflects the impact of extreme weather on the degree of loss of the working cable, and makes the calculated warning threshold more accurate.

[0010] In one embodiment of the present invention, the extreme level of extreme weather corresponding to a reference working day is obtained, and the basic influence coefficient of the working cable under extreme weather is determined based on the power supply fluctuation and the extreme level. Specifically, this includes: obtaining the level reference quantity corresponding to the extreme weather; determining the extreme level based on the level reference quantity; obtaining the power supply peak value of the working cable during the extreme duration based on the power supply fluctuation; selecting a benchmark working day corresponding to the reference working day from the data management database and recording it as the comparison working day; recording the time period corresponding to the comparison working day and the extreme duration as the comparison period; and calculating the average power supply value during the comparison period; and calculating the basic influence coefficient based on the average power supply value and the power supply peak value.

[0011] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by adopting this technical solution are as follows: the selection of working days makes the calculated average power supply value more consistent with the normal working state of the working cable, and can better reflect the normal power supply situation of the working cable. The acquisition of the power supply value can obtain the extreme situations that the working cable may encounter when dealing with different levels of extreme weather, making the basic influence coefficient more accurate.

[0012] In one embodiment of the present invention, if so, the work log that may contain extreme weather is designated as the management work day. The extreme impact value corresponding to each extreme weather event and the duration of each extreme weather event are calculated based on the weather forecast and recorded as the extreme duration. Specifically, this includes: obtaining the number of extreme weather events; when only one type of extreme weather event occurs, determining the extreme level based on the extreme impact value and determining the extreme impact value based on the extreme level; when multiple extreme weather events occur, obtaining the extreme levels corresponding to each type of extreme weather event and determining the compensation coefficient based on the maximum value of the extreme level and the type of extreme weather event; calculating the unit impact value of each type of extreme weather event under the extreme level, selecting the maximum value of the unit impact value and recording it as the unit extreme value, and calculating the extreme impact value based on the compensation coefficient and the unit extreme value.

[0013] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by adopting this technical solution are as follows: the calculation of unit impact value can accurately calculate the extreme impact value based on the degree of impact caused by different extreme weather when multiple extreme weather events occur simultaneously; the setting of compensation coefficient can compensate for the unit impact value based on the extreme level of another extreme weather event, further improving the accuracy of the extreme impact value; it fully considers the impact of multiple extreme weather events on working cables and enhances the practicality of the planning method.

[0014] In one embodiment of the present invention, an extreme impact value is compared with a warning threshold. When the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, an adjustment difference is calculated based on the extreme impact value and the warning threshold. The probability of a fault in the working cable is then calculated based on the adjustment difference. Specifically, this includes: calculating a maintenance threshold and a basic failure rate for the working cable based on the adjustment difference; when the extreme impact value is less than the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a first increase coefficient, and the probability of a fault is calculated based on the first increase coefficient and the extreme duration; when the extreme impact value is greater than or equal to the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a second increase coefficient, and the probability of a fault is calculated based on the second increase coefficient and the extreme duration; wherein the second increase coefficient is greater than the first increase coefficient.

[0015] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by adopting this technical solution are as follows: Based on the adjustment difference of the working cable when facing extreme weather, a basic failure rate that conforms to the current working state is obtained. The setting of the first rise coefficient and the second rise coefficient combines the basic failure rate with the maintenance threshold, making the risk probability more accurate.

[0016] In one embodiment of the present invention, when the risk probability of the working cable is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, the working cable is recorded as a cable to be maintained. The maintenance method of the cable to be maintained is determined according to the impact range and extreme duration of the cable to be maintained. Specifically, this includes: obtaining the time length between the current date and the management working day, recording it as the maintainable period, and determining the maintenance sequence of the cables to be maintained in the target area; and maintaining the cables to be maintained before the arrival of extreme weather according to the maintenance sequence.

[0017] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by adopting this technical solution are: the calculation of maintainable time periods makes the sequencing of maintenance more convenient, and also provides maintenance personnel with sufficient maintenance time, ensuring that the cables to be maintained can be maintained normally.

[0018] In one embodiment of the present invention, the time length between the current date and the management workday is obtained and recorded as the maintainable time period, and the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained in the target area is determined. Specifically, this includes: determining a first sorting coefficient based on the scope of influence, and determining a second sorting coefficient based on the extreme duration; obtaining the location of the maintenance team in the target area and calculating the travel time of the maintenance team to each cable to be maintained; calculating the maintenance duration of the cables to be maintained based on the travel time, the first sorting coefficient, and the second sorting coefficient, and determining the maintenance order of the cables to be maintained based on the maintenance duration.

[0019] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by adopting this technical solution are as follows: The setting of the first and second sorting coefficients makes the maintenance sequence of the cables to be maintained more reasonable. In the face of sudden extreme weather, important cables to be maintained can be prioritized for maintenance, reducing the impact of extreme weather. The calculation of travel time can calculate the maintenance time based on the distance when the importance of the cables to be maintained is similar, thereby improving the overall maintenance rate of the cables to be maintained.

[0020] In one embodiment of the present invention, the present invention also provides a multi-dimensional planning system for power distribution networks that considers extreme natural disasters. The planning system includes: a storage module, in which a data management library is located; a reading module, which is used to read weather forecasts; a calculation module, which is used to calculate adjustment differences and risk probabilities; and a judgment module, which is used to determine the maintenance method of the cable to be maintained based on the risk probability. The planning method described in the above embodiment is applied to this planning system, and the planning system has all the technical features of the above-mentioned standard method, which will not be repeated here. Attached Figure Description

[0021] Figure 1 This is one of the flowcharts for the multi-dimensional planning method for power distribution networks in this invention; Figure 2 This is the second flowchart of the multi-dimensional planning method for power distribution networks of the present invention; Figure 3 This is the third flowchart of the multi-dimensional planning method for power distribution networks in this invention; Figure 4 This is the fourth flowchart of the multi-dimensional planning method for power distribution networks of the present invention; Figure 5 This is the fifth flowchart of the multi-dimensional planning method for power distribution networks of the present invention; Figure 6 This is a schematic diagram of the multi-dimensional planning system for power distribution networks of the present invention; Explanation of reference numerals in the attached figures: 100 - Planning system; 110 - Storage module; 120 - Reading module; 130 - Calculation module; 140 - Judgment module. Detailed Implementation

[0022] To make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more apparent and understandable, specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0023] [First Embodiment] See Figure 1 and Figure 2 In one specific embodiment, the present invention provides a multi-dimensional planning method for power distribution networks that considers extreme natural disasters. The planning method includes: S100. Establish a data management library, add all working cables in the target area to the data management library, and store the power supply load curve of the working cables within the target time. S200. Obtain the daily weather conditions of the target area within the target time period, and use the work logs with extreme weather as reference work days and the work logs without extreme weather as base work days; S300: Obtain the loss status of the working cable under extreme weather conditions based on the power supply load curve of the benchmark working day, and calculate the warning threshold of the working cable under various extreme weather conditions based on the loss status. S400: Obtain weather forecasts for the future and determine whether extreme weather is likely based on the forecasts; S500. If so, the work log that may have extreme weather shall be recorded as the management work day, and the extreme impact value corresponding to each extreme weather and the duration of each extreme weather shall be calculated according to the weather forecast and recorded as the extreme duration. S510. Compare the extreme impact value with the warning threshold. When the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, calculate the adjustment difference based on the extreme impact value and the warning threshold, and calculate the risk probability of the working cable failing based on the adjustment difference. S520. When the risk probability of the working cable is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, the working cable is recorded as a cable to be maintained, and the maintenance method of the cable to be maintained is determined according to the impact range and extreme duration of the cable to be maintained. S530. When the risk probability is less than the risk threshold, the working cable does not require maintenance. S600. If not, the working cable requires no maintenance.

[0024] In step S100, all cables within the target area need to be added to the data management database before operation begins. The target time is usually two years. Newly operated working cables have low loss rates, stable operating conditions, and a low probability of failure. Using the power supply load curve within the target time as a reference can reduce the impact of the working cable's own loss and obtain the actual power supply situation of the working cable in each time period.

[0025] In step S200, the working cable within the target time is mainly used to collect power supply data of the working cable in the target area during extreme weather, and to obtain the power supply changes of the working cable in the target area when various extreme weather conditions occur based on the power supply load curve.

[0026] In step S300, for the working cables within the target time, the loss level of each working cable needs to be updated manually before and after each extreme weather event. The loss level is displayed as a percentage. For newly installed cable equipment, the loss level is 0, and for cable equipment that cannot work, the loss level is 100%. The closer the loss level is to 100%, the higher the probability of the working cable failing during operation.

[0027] In step S500, the future time is usually half a month. When the weather forecast shows that there is extreme weather, the date corresponding to the extreme weather is recorded as the management working day. At the same time, the duration of the extreme weather is inferred based on the weather parameters before and after the management working day, that is, the extreme duration. The extreme impact value is converted according to the reference standard corresponding to the extreme weather. For example, if the extreme weather is rainstorm, the reference standard for the extreme impact value is the precipitation per unit time; if the extreme weather is snowstorm, the extreme impact value is the snowfall per unit time; if the extreme weather is strong wind, the extreme impact value is the wind force level.

[0028] In steps S510 to S530, the warning threshold is calculated based on the working condition of the working cable. Generally, the lower the loss of the working cable, the higher the corresponding warning threshold. When the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, it indicates that the working cable may fail under the current extreme weather conditions. When the extreme impact value is less than or equal to the warning threshold, the working cable can operate normally under extreme weather conditions. When the working cable may fail, the risk probability is calculated by adjusting the difference. The larger the adjustment difference value, the higher the corresponding risk probability. All working cables with a risk probability are marked as cables to be maintained. The maintenance method of the cables to be maintained will also change for different risk probabilities. When the coverage of extreme weather is large, or the extreme impact value changes suddenly, it may be impossible to maintain all the cables to be maintained in advance. In this case, it is necessary to select the cables to be maintained for maintenance.

[0029] By establishing a data management database, all working cables within the target area can be controlled. Acquiring power load curves within the target time allows for a more accurate assessment of the power supply status of the working cables, better reflecting the current working environment and reducing the impact of cable losses on the power load curve. The classification of baseline and reference working days enables rapid data retrieval from the database during extreme weather events. Setting early warning thresholds allows for assessment of the load capacity of each working cable based on the power load curve. Setting extreme impact values ​​allows for judgment based on relevant extreme weather data, making the selection of cables to be maintained more accurate. Setting risk probabilities and risk thresholds provides the probability of failure for each cable under extreme weather conditions, enabling maintenance personnel to rationally arrange maintenance work based on actual conditions, further enhancing the rationality of the planning method.

[0030] [Second Embodiment] In one specific embodiment, the weather conditions of the target area are obtained daily within a target time period. Work logs with extreme weather are used as reference work days, and work logs without extreme weather are used as baseline work days. Specifically, this includes: S210. Obtain the weather type for each workday, including sunny, cloudy, rainy, foggy, and snowy weather; S220. When the weather type is cloudy or foggy, the work log shall be used as the base work day. S230. When the weather type is sunny, rainy, or snowy, determine whether the current workday is a reference workday based on the extreme duration and extreme impact value.

[0031] In steps S210 to S230, fog has little impact on the working status of the working cable. When considering extreme weather, only rainy and snowy days are usually considered. The determination is then made based on the temperature and wind force level of the working day. When determining the reference working day, the extreme duration needs to be greater than one hour to avoid misjudging the benchmark working day as the reference working day due to short-term extreme weather.

[0032] It should be noted that each weather type has a corresponding type of extreme weather. For example, rainy days correspond to the extreme weather type of heavy rain, and snowy days correspond to the extreme weather type of blizzard.

[0033] For example, when the rainfall within one hour reaches 20 mm or more, the type of extreme weather is heavy rain. However, if the maximum rainfall is greater than 20 mm for a short period of time during the rain, and the duration is less than one hour, then the workday cannot be determined as a reference workday.

[0034] The setting of extreme duration and extreme impact values ​​makes the determination of the baseline working day more accurate, avoiding interference caused by short-term extreme weather in the determination of maintenance cables.

[0035] [Third Embodiment] See Figure 3 In one specific embodiment, the loss of the working cable under extreme weather conditions is obtained based on the power supply load curve of a reference workday, and the warning thresholds for the working cable under various extreme weather conditions are calculated based on the loss conditions, specifically including: S310. Analyze the power supply load curve to obtain the power supply fluctuation of the working cable during extreme durations; S320. Obtain the extreme level of extreme weather corresponding to the reference working day, and determine the basic impact coefficient of the working cable under extreme weather conditions based on power supply fluctuations and extreme levels. S330. Obtain the basic loss rate of the working cable from the data management database, correct the basic loss rate according to the basic influence coefficient to obtain the corrected loss rate, and calculate the warning threshold based on the corrected loss rate and the basic loss rate.

[0036] In step S310, by analyzing the power supply load curve, the power consumption of electrical equipment in the target area can be obtained under extreme weather conditions. For example, when the extreme weather is a blizzard, the frequency of air conditioning use in the target area will increase, and the air outlet temperature of the air conditioner will also increase accordingly. At this time, the power supply of some working cables will increase. Moreover, under extreme weather conditions, some factories in the industrial area will stop operating, which will lead to a decrease in the power supply of some working cables. Therefore, under extreme weather conditions, the power supply of most working cables will fluctuate. This fluctuation is also caused by the extreme weather. It is necessary to collect data from the data management database to make the predicted power supply fluctuation more accurate.

[0037] In step S320, the extreme level is obtained through the reference value corresponding to extreme weather. The reference value corresponding to rainstorm weather is precipitation, the reference value corresponding to snowstorm weather is snowfall, and the reference value corresponding to storm weather is wind force level. The criteria for determining the extreme level are stored in the data management database. After the extreme level is determined, the basic influence coefficient is calculated based on the power supply fluctuation of the working cable under different extreme levels.

[0038] In step S330, after each update of the loss level through manual measurement, the basic loss rate of the working cable is updated. When calculating the warning threshold and the corrected loss rate, the basic loss rate is directly obtained from the data management database, and then the corrected loss rate is calculated based on the basic influence coefficient and the basic loss rate. The basic loss rate is denoted as N1, the corrected loss rate as N0, and the basic influence coefficient as L1. The basic loss rate, the corrected loss rate, and the basic influence coefficient satisfy the following relationship: N0 = N1 × L1.

[0039] The warning threshold is calculated based on the corrected loss rate and the remaining loss value of the working cable, and is further divided according to the value of the remaining loss value. Let the remaining loss value be C, the warning threshold be Y1, and the total duration of extreme weather experienced by the working cable be t. The warning threshold, the remaining loss value, and the corrected loss rate satisfy the following relationship: When 0 < C ≤ 50%, Y1 = (1 - C) + 2N0 × t; When 50 < C < 100%, Y1 = (1 - C) + N0 × t.

[0040] It should be noted that the higher the loss level of the working cable, the higher the probability of failure when faced with voltage fluctuations. Conversely, the lower the loss level of the working cable, the lower the probability of failure when faced with voltage fluctuations. Therefore, the warning threshold needs to be adjusted according to the loss level of the working cable.

[0041] By analyzing the extreme weather encountered by the working cable within the target time, the changes in the power supply load of the working cable under various extreme weather conditions are obtained. The extreme level is determined, and the extreme weather encountered by the working cable can be classified according to its degree of extremeness. Then, the basic influence coefficient is calculated in combination with the power supply fluctuation, so that the basic influence coefficient is more in line with the actual working conditions of the working cable. The calculation of loss rate is corrected by combining the natural loss of the working cable with the additional loss of extreme weather, which more intuitively reflects the impact of extreme weather on the degree of loss of the working cable, and makes the calculation of the early warning threshold more accurate.

[0042] [Fourth Embodiment] See Figure 4 In one specific embodiment, the extreme level of extreme weather corresponding to a reference working day is obtained, and the basic impact coefficient of the working cable under extreme weather conditions is determined based on power supply fluctuations and the extreme level, specifically including: S321. Obtain the level reference quantity corresponding to extreme weather, determine the extreme level according to the level reference quantity, and obtain the power supply value of the working cable during the extreme duration according to the power supply fluctuation. S322. Select the benchmark working day corresponding to the reference working day from the data management database and record it as the comparison working day. Record the time period corresponding to the comparison working day and the extreme duration as the comparison period and calculate the average power supply value within the comparison period. Calculate the basic influence coefficient based on the average power supply value and the extreme power supply value.

[0043] In step S321, the extreme levels are divided into five levels according to the magnitude of the level reference value. Each extreme level has a corresponding weather coefficient. The power supply value is the maximum power supply load of the working cable during the extreme duration. Let the weather coefficient be A and the extreme level be Lv. The extreme level and the weather coefficient satisfy the following relationship: A = 1 + 0.02 × (Lv - 1).

[0044] In step S322, the corresponding reference working day refers to the reference working day that occurs five days before or after the reference working day. The power supply situation of these comparison working days in the comparison period is calculated to obtain the unit load result. The average value of multiple unit load results is calculated to obtain the average power supply value. The basic influence coefficient is calculated based on the power supply value and the average power supply value.

[0045] For example, if the reference working day is August 10th and the extreme duration corresponds to the time period from 8 PM to 10 PM, then when selecting the base working day, it needs to be selected between August 5th and August 15th. The second load result also corresponds to the power supply status of the working cable between 8 PM and 10 PM each day, between August 5th and August 15th.

[0046] Let the fluctuation coefficient be B, the average power supply value be V1, the power supply value be V2, and the rated load of the working cable be V3. The fluctuation coefficient, average power supply value, power supply value, and rated load satisfy the following relationship: When V1≥V2, B=0.98; When V1 < V2 ≤ V3, B = 1; When V1 < V3 < V2, B = 1 + 0.1 × (V2 - V1) ÷ V1; When V3 < V1 < V2, B = 1 + 0.15 × (V2 - V1) ÷ V1.

[0047] The basic influence coefficient is calculated based on the weather coefficient and the fluctuation coefficient. Let the basic influence coefficient be L1, then L1 = A × B.

[0048] By comparing the selection of working days, the calculated average power supply value is more consistent with the normal working state of the working cable, and can better reflect the normal power supply situation of the working cable. The acquisition of the power supply value can obtain the extreme situations that the working cable may encounter when dealing with different levels of extreme weather, making the basic influence coefficient more accurate.

[0049] [Fifth Embodiment] See Figure 5 In a specific embodiment, if so, the work log that may experience extreme weather is designated as a management work day. The extreme impact value corresponding to each extreme weather event and the duration of each extreme weather event are calculated based on the weather forecast and recorded as the extreme duration. Specifically, this includes: S501. Obtain the number of extreme weather events. When only one type of extreme weather event occurs, determine the extreme level based on the extreme impact value, and then determine the extreme impact value based on the extreme level. S502. When multiple extreme weather events occur, obtain the extreme levels corresponding to each extreme weather event, and determine the compensation coefficient based on the maximum value of the extreme level and the type of extreme weather event. S503. Calculate the unit impact value of various extreme weather events at the extreme level, select the maximum value of the unit impact value and record it as the unit extreme value, and calculate the extreme impact value based on the compensation coefficient and the unit extreme value.

[0050] In step S502, there are sometimes two types of extreme weather. When a typhoon comes, the storm is often accompanied by heavy rain. At this time, the two extreme weathers interact and both will cause damage to the working cable. It is necessary to determine the extreme impact value according to the extreme level of different extreme weather.

[0051] In step S503, the extreme levels of the two extreme weather events need to be obtained separately. Each extreme weather event has a corresponding unit impact value under each extreme level. When the extreme levels of the two extreme weather events are the same, the average of the two unit impact values ​​can be calculated to obtain the extreme impact value. When the extreme levels of the two extreme weather events are different, the extreme weather event with the higher extreme level is used as the benchmark to obtain the corresponding unit impact value. The compensation coefficient is determined according to the extreme level of the other extreme weather event. Finally, the extreme impact value is obtained based on the compensation coefficient and the unit impact value.

[0052] It should be noted that when two or more extreme weather events interact, the two extreme weather events with the highest extreme levels are selected to calculate the extreme impact value.

[0053] The calculation of unit impact value can accurately calculate the extreme impact value based on the degree of impact caused by different extreme weather when multiple extreme weather events occur simultaneously. The setting of the compensation coefficient can compensate for the unit impact value based on the extreme level of another extreme weather event, further improving the accuracy of the extreme impact value. It fully considers the impact of multiple extreme weather events on working cables and enhances the practicality of the planning method.

[0054] [Sixth Embodiment] In one specific embodiment, an extreme impact value is compared with a warning threshold. When the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, an adjustment difference is calculated based on the extreme impact value and the warning threshold. The probability of a fault in the working cable is then calculated based on the adjustment difference, specifically including: S511. Calculate the maintenance threshold and basic failure rate of the working cable based on the adjustment difference; S512. When the extreme impact value is less than the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a first increase coefficient. The risk probability is calculated based on the first increase coefficient and the extreme duration. S513. When the extreme impact value is greater than or equal to the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a second increase coefficient. The risk probability is calculated based on the second increase coefficient and the extreme duration. The second increase coefficient is greater than the first increase coefficient.

[0055] In step S511, the adjustment difference is denoted as Y2, the maintenance threshold as Y3, and the basic failure rate as G. The maintenance threshold and the basic failure rate are calculated as follows: Y3 = 2Y1 + C - 1; G = (1 - C) ÷ 3 + Y2 ÷ 2.

[0056] In steps S512 to S513, when the extreme impact value is less than the maintenance threshold, the probability of the working cable failing is low, and the first increase coefficient is usually 1.05, which corresponds to a risk probability of 1.05G. When the extreme impact value is greater than or equal to the maintenance threshold, the probability of the working cable failing will increase, and the second increase coefficient is usually 1.1, which corresponds to a risk probability of 1.1G.

[0057] Based on the adjustment difference of the working cable in extreme weather, a basic failure rate that conforms to the current working condition is obtained. The setting of the first rise coefficient and the second rise coefficient combines the basic failure rate with the maintenance threshold, making the risk probability more accurate.

[0058] [Seventh Embodiment] In one specific embodiment, when the risk probability of the working cable is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, the working cable is designated as a cable requiring maintenance. The maintenance method for the cable requiring maintenance is determined based on its impact range and extreme duration, specifically including: S521. Obtain the time length between the current date and the management workday, record it as the maintainable period, and determine the maintenance sequence of cables to be maintained in the target area; S522. Perform maintenance on cables to be maintained before extreme weather occurs, according to the maintenance sequence.

[0059] In steps S521 and S522, the cable to be maintained is maintained within the maintainable period. When sorting the maintenance, the risk probability of the cable to be maintained is compared first. When the difference in risk probability is within 1%, the impact range of the cable to be maintained is compared first, that is, the power outage range caused by the failure of the cable to be maintained.

[0060] The calculation of maintainable time periods makes the sequencing of maintenance more convenient and provides maintenance personnel with sufficient maintenance time, ensuring that the cables to be maintained can be maintained normally.

[0061] [Eighth Embodiment] In one specific embodiment, the time length between the current date and the management workday is obtained and recorded as the maintainable period, and the maintenance sequence of cables to be maintained within the target area is determined, specifically including: S521a. Determine the first ranking coefficient based on the scope of influence, and determine the second ranking coefficient based on the extreme duration. S521b: Obtain the location of the maintenance team within the target area and calculate the travel time of the maintenance team to each cable to be maintained; S521c. Calculate the maintenance duration of the cable to be maintained based on the travel time, the first sorting coefficient, and the second sorting coefficient, and determine the maintenance sequence of the cable to be maintained based on the maintenance duration.

[0062] In step S521a, the larger the range of influence, the larger the first ranking coefficient; the longer the extreme duration, the larger the second ranking coefficient.

[0063] In step S521b, maintenance starting points are set up in the target area, and each maintenance starting point has a corresponding maintenance team. The travel time required for each maintenance team to reach the cable to be maintained is calculated based on the location of the maintenance starting point, and the cables to be maintained are allocated based on the travel time.

[0064] In step S521c, the priority of the cable to be maintained is determined according to the product of the first sorting coefficient and the second sorting coefficient. When the priorities are the same, they are sorted according to the length of travel time to obtain the maintenance order of the cable to be maintained.

[0065] The setting of the first and second sorting coefficients makes the maintenance sequence of the cables to be maintained more reasonable. In the face of sudden extreme weather, important cables to be maintained can be prioritized for maintenance, reducing the impact of extreme weather. The calculation of travel time can calculate the maintenance time based on the distance when the importance of the cables to be maintained is similar, thereby improving the overall maintenance rate of the cables to be maintained.

[0066] [Ninth Embodiment] See Figure 6In one specific embodiment, the present invention also provides a multi-dimensional planning system 100 for power distribution networks that considers extreme natural disasters. The planning system 100 includes: a storage module 110, in which a data management library is located; a reading module 120, used to read weather forecasts; a calculation module 130, used to calculate adjustment differences and risk probabilities; and a judgment module 140, used to determine the maintenance method for the cable to be maintained based on the risk probability. The planning method described in the above embodiment is applied to the planning system 100, which has all the technical features of the above-mentioned standard method, and will not be described in detail here.

[0067] While the present invention has been disclosed above, it is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art can make various modifications and alterations without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention; therefore, the scope of protection of the present invention should be determined by the scope defined in the claims.

Claims

1. A multi-dimensional planning method for power distribution networks considering extreme natural disasters, characterized in that, The planning method includes: Establish a data management library, add all working cables within the target area to the data management library, and store the power supply load curves of the working cables within the target time period; Obtain the daily weather conditions of the target area within the target time period, and use the work logs with extreme weather as reference work days and the work logs without extreme weather as base work days; The power supply load curve is analyzed to obtain the power supply fluctuation of the working cable during extreme durations; Obtain the level reference value corresponding to the extreme weather, determine the extreme level based on the level reference value, and obtain the power supply value of the working cable during the extreme duration based on the power supply fluctuation. Select the benchmark working day corresponding to the reference working day from the data management library and record it as the comparison working day. Record the time period corresponding to the comparison working day and the extreme duration as the comparison period and calculate the average power supply value within the comparison period. The basic influence coefficient is calculated based on the average power supply value and the power supply electrode value; The basic loss rate of the working cable is obtained from the data management library, and the basic loss rate is corrected according to the basic influence coefficient to obtain the corrected loss rate. Calculate the warning threshold based on the corrected loss rate and the basic loss rate; Obtain weather forecasts for the future and determine whether the extreme weather will occur based on the forecasts. If so, the work logs on days when extreme weather may occur are designated as management workdays, and the extreme impact values ​​corresponding to each extreme weather event and the duration of each extreme weather event are calculated based on the weather forecast and recorded as extreme durations. When multiple extreme weather events occur, the extreme levels corresponding to each extreme weather event are obtained, and a compensation coefficient is determined based on the maximum value of the extreme level and the type of extreme weather event. Each extreme weather event has a corresponding unit impact value at each extreme level. When the extreme levels corresponding to two extreme weather events are the same, the average of the two unit impact values ​​is calculated to obtain the extreme impact value. When the extreme levels of two extreme weather events are different, the extreme weather event with the higher extreme level is used as the benchmark to obtain the corresponding unit impact value, and a compensation coefficient is determined based on the extreme level of the other extreme weather event. Finally, the extreme impact value is obtained based on the compensation coefficient and the unit impact value. The extreme impact value is compared with the warning threshold. When the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, an adjustment difference is calculated based on the extreme impact value and the warning threshold. The probability of the working cable failing is then calculated based on the adjustment difference. When the risk probability of the working cable is greater than or equal to the risk threshold, the working cable is designated as a cable requiring maintenance. The maintenance method for the cable requiring maintenance is determined based on its impact range and the extreme duration, specifically including: Obtain the time length between the current date and the management workday, record it as the maintainable period, and determine the maintenance sequence of the cables to be maintained within the target area, specifically including: A first ranking coefficient is determined based on the scope of influence, and a second ranking coefficient is determined based on the extreme duration. Obtain the location of the maintenance team within the target area and calculate the travel time of the maintenance team to each of the cables to be maintained; The maintenance time of the cable to be maintained is calculated based on the travel time, the first sorting coefficient, and the second sorting coefficient, and the maintenance sequence of the cable to be maintained is determined based on the maintenance time. The cable to be maintained shall be maintained in accordance with the maintenance sequence before the arrival of the extreme weather. When the risk probability is less than the risk threshold, the working cable does not require maintenance; If not, the working cable requires no maintenance.

2. The multi-dimensional planning method for power distribution networks considering extreme natural disasters according to claim 1, characterized in that, The process of obtaining the daily weather conditions of the target area within the target time period, using work logs with extreme weather as reference work days and work logs without extreme weather as base work days, specifically includes: Obtain the weather type for each workday, including sunny, cloudy, rainy, foggy, and snowy weather; When the weather type is cloudy or foggy, the work log will be the base workday; When the weather type is sunny, rainy, or snowy, the current workday is determined to be a reference workday based on the extreme duration and the extreme impact value.

3. The multi-dimensional planning method for power distribution networks considering extreme natural disasters according to claim 2, characterized in that, The step of comparing the extreme impact value with the warning threshold, and when the extreme impact value is greater than the warning threshold, calculating an adjustment difference based on the extreme impact value and the warning threshold, and calculating the probability of the working cable failing based on the adjustment difference, specifically includes: The maintenance threshold and basic failure rate of the working cable are calculated based on the adjustment difference. When the extreme impact value is less than the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a first increase coefficient, and the risk probability is calculated based on the first increase coefficient and the extreme duration. When the extreme impact value is greater than or equal to the maintenance threshold, the basic failure rate has a second increase coefficient, and the risk probability is calculated based on the second increase coefficient and the extreme duration. The second increase coefficient is greater than the first increase coefficient.

4. A multi-dimensional planning system for power distribution networks that considers extreme natural disasters, characterized in that, The planning method according to any one of claims 1 to 3 is applied to the planning system, the planning system comprising: The storage module contains the data management library. The reading module is used to read the weather forecast; The calculation module is used to calculate the adjustment difference and the risk probability; The judgment module is used to determine the maintenance method of the cable to be maintained based on the risk probability.

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