A wind farm wind speed prediction method, system, device and storage medium

CN119514745BActive Publication Date: 2026-08-28HUAIYIN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202411350560.X
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2024-09-26
Publication Date
2026-08-28
Estimated Expiration
2044-09-26

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

统计模型如ARIMA和卡尔曼滤波等,适合简单时间序列预测,但在非线性数据预测方面能力有限

Benefits of technology

[0113]有益效果:与现有技术相比,本发明通过采用IEVO对自适应噪声集合经验模态分解CEEMDAN中的白噪声幅值权重与噪声添加次数进行优化,大大提高了CEEMDAN分解的效率;EVO的改进体现在,在粒子衰变中引入衰变概率,衰变概率会随着迭代进程不断减小,前期有助于粒子衰变,后期有助于粒子向稳定带靠拢,有效地提高了算法地优化性能,减少优化时间;对于分解后的数据,先采用样本熵SE根据样本熵值对数据进行重构,可以根号的识别数据中的不同特征,降低数据计算的复杂度,其次利用随机森林RF根据特征重要性进行排序,保留重要性高的特征,将重要性低即冗余特征的剔除,通过SE-RF对分解后数据的处理,不仅降低了计算时间,还可以提高模型的预测的准确性和鲁棒性;此外,还在RF中引入启发式策略,使得RF的一重要参数决策树能够随数据的大小自适应变化,提高RF的效率;将格拉姆角和场GASF与卷积网络CNN结合,将一维时间序列数据转换成二维图像,能够获取一维时间序列数据中所缺少的空间关系特征、全局特征等;采用PatchTST与GPTuner相结合的方法对数据进行预测;PatchTST采用通道独立的方法处理多变量时间序列,每个通道包含一个单变量时间序列,所有序列共享相同的嵌入和Transformer权重,能够保持在多变量长时间序列上预测的准确性;此外,利用轻量化调参方法GPTuner对PatchTST的batch_size(批处理大小)与learning_rate(学习率)进行优化,在一定程度上既保证了模型预测的精确性,同时也降低了预测的时间,提高了效率。

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Abstract

The application discloses a kind of wind farm wind speed prediction method, system, equipment and storage medium, method includes: using improved energy valley optimization algorithm IEVO optimization in adaptive noise set empirical mode decomposition CEEMDAN White noise amplitude weight and noise adding times, wind farm historical data is decomposed by CEEMDAN;The data after decomposition is preprocessed using sample entropy SE, reduces the calculation complexity of data;Optimization is carried out to the data after preprocessing, and the random forest algorithm RF feature selection of heuristic strategy is introduced, and redundant features are eliminated;Optimized data is converted into two-dimensional image from one-dimensional time series data using gram angle and field GASF, and image features are extracted;The extracted image features are sent into time series block transformer Patch TST model for wind speed prediction, and the training algorithm GPTuner based on gradient boosting decision tree is introduced in the Patch TST model to adjust model parameters;Compared with the traditional method, the accuracy of wind speed prediction can be effectively improved, and the stable operation of wind power plant is guaranteed.
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