Island reef personnel killing probability calculation method under unmanned aerial vehicle impact load effect

Abstract

The invention relates to an island reef personnel killing probability calculation method under the action of an unmanned aerial vehicle impact load, and the method comprises the steps: carrying out the region division of an unmasked personnel activity region and a masked personnel activity region for a target island reef, and carrying out the statistics of the personnel distribution condition in each grid of each region; simulating and calculating killing distances corresponding to different killing probabilities under different explosive amounts when a single unmanned aerial vehicle attacks the unmasked person activity area; simulating and calculating killing distances corresponding to different height layers of the sheltering part under different explosive quantities when a single unmanned aerial vehicle attacks the sheltered person activity area; the attacked person killing probability of each grid of each area under the impact load effect of the unmanned aerial vehicle is calculated; and determining the attacked person killing probability of the whole target island under the impact load of the unmanned aerial vehicle. According to the method, the personnel killing probability during island multi-point multi-batch unmanned aerial vehicle explosion impact load action can be rapidly calculated, and beneficial reference is provided for island toughness evaluation, island personnel killing rate reduction and shelter construction.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of structural impact explosion, and in particular to a method for calculating the probability of personnel being killed on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone. Background Art

[0002] In recent years, drones have been widely used in wars. By loading explosives, they launch surprise attacks on local areas or buildings, causing great damage to people and buildings within the range, thereby affecting the war situation and endangering territorial security.

[0003] In the past, calculations of casualties were often limited to the effects of a single attack by a single weapon in a local area. Statistical calculations of the attack situation in a global area were rare. The effects of the attack were also often limited to theoretical parameters such as the size of the shock wave, and were rarely linked to actual casualty values. Summary of the invention

[0004] In view of the shortcomings of the prior art, the main purpose of the present invention is to provide a method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of drones, so as to provide a fast calculation method for the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under multiple consecutive drone attacks.

[0005] The technical solution of the present invention is as follows:

[0006] The present invention proposes a method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone, comprising the following steps:

[0007] Divide the target islands and reefs into areas with shelter and areas without shelter, and divide each area into grids;

[0008] Count the distribution of people in each grid in each area at different time periods and determine the probability of people distribution;

[0009] Simulate and calculate the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different amounts of explosives when a drone attacks an unsheltered area, and draw the corresponding fitting curve Figure 1 ;

[0010] Simulate and calculate the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when a drone attacks a sheltered personnel activity area in a single attack, and draw the corresponding fitting curve Figure 2 ;

[0011] Based on the fitting curve Figure 1 , Fitting curve Figure 2 Calculate the probability of personnel casualties for each grid in each area of ​​the target islands and reefs under multiple batches of drone attacks;

[0012] Determine the probability of casualties on the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the drone.

[0013] In some embodiments, said gridding each region comprises:

[0014] Establishing a three-dimensional rectangular coordinate system for the target islands and reefs;

[0015] Based on at least one of the building conditions, regional terrain, and population density, each area is divided into 3D grids of different coarseness and density.

[0016] In some embodiments, the personnel distribution probability is:

[0017] =

[0018] Where x represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system in the horizontal direction, that is, the distance in the x-axis direction; y represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system in the vertical direction, that is, the distance in the y-axis direction; and z represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system in the height direction, that is, the distance in the z-axis direction.

[0019] In some embodiments, the simulation calculates the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different amounts of explosives when the drone attacks an unsheltered personnel activity area in a single attack, and draws the corresponding fitting curve Figure 1 Specifically include:

[0020] Simulate and calculate the shock wave overpressure at different distances with different explosive amounts;

[0021] Based on the analysis of the damage to the human body caused by the shock wave overpressure, the probability of personnel casualties is assessed based on the damage to the human body;

[0022] Determine the killing distance corresponding to different amounts of explosives based on the probability of killing different personnel;

[0023] According to the multiple data of killing distances determined by the probability of killing different personnel under different amounts of explosives, a fitting curve of the probability of killing personnel corresponding to different killing distances under different amounts of explosives is drawn. Figure 1 .

[0024] In some embodiments, the simulation calculates the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when the drone attacks the sheltered personnel activity area in a single attack, and draws the corresponding fitting curve Figure 2 Specifically include:

[0025] Simulate and calculate the shock wave overpressure at different height layers of the corresponding shelter under different explosive quantities;

[0026] Based on the analysis of the damage to the human body caused by the shock wave overpressure, the probability of personnel casualties is assessed based on the damage to the human body;

[0027] Based on the different probability of killing different personnel, determine the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives;

[0028] Based on the multiple data of different killing probabilities corresponding to different heights of the shelter under different amounts of explosives, the killing distance is determined, and the fitting curves of the killing probability of personnel corresponding to different killing distances at different heights of the shelter under different amounts of explosives are drawn. Figure 2 .

[0029] In some embodiments, the calculating of the probability of personnel casualties in each grid of each area of ​​the target island or reef under multiple batches of drone attacks specifically includes:

[0030] Determine the multiple target points of the target islands and reefs that are attacked by drones in multiple batches and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point;

[0031] Based on the fitting curve Figure 1 Determine the kill probability of each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area under one, two, ..., multiple attacks by drones;

[0032] Based on the fitting curve Figure 2 Determine the kill probability of each grid at different altitudes with sheltered personnel activity areas under one, two, ..., multiple attacks by drones;

[0033] According to the fitting curve Figure 1 The determined multiple kill probabilities calculate the probability of personnel kill for each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks;

[0034] According to the fitting curve Figure 2 The determined multiple kill probabilities calculate the probability of personnel kill for each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks.

[0035] In some embodiments, calculating the probability of personnel killing for each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks specifically includes:

[0036] Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone attacks i+1 times in a row and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point;

[0037] Based on the target point of a drone attack, calculate the position of each grid point in each area of ​​the uncovered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of killing people corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0038] Determine the position of each grid point Probability of casualties in a single drone attack:

[0039]

[0040] Based on the target points of the drone during the second attack, calculate the grid points of each area in the unsheltered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0041] Determine the position of each grid point Probability of casualties in a second drone attack:

[0042]

[0043] Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, the grid point of each area in the unsheltered personnel activity area is calculated. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0044] Determine the position of each grid point The probability of casualties under the attack of drone i+1 times:

[0045] .

[0046] In some embodiments, calculating the probability of personnel killing for each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks specifically includes:

[0047] Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone attacks i+1 times in a row and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point;

[0048] Based on the target point of a drone attack, calculate the grid point of each area at different altitudes in each area of ​​the sheltered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0049] Determine the position of each grid point Probability of casualties in a single drone attack:

[0050]

[0051] Based on the target points of the drone during the second attack, calculate the grid points of each area at different altitudes in each area of ​​the sheltered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0052] Determine the position of each grid point Probability of casualties in a second drone attack:

[0053]

[0054] Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, the grid points of each area at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area are calculated. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of personnel killing corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0055] Determine the position of each grid point The probability of casualties under the attack of drone i+1 times:

[0056] .

[0057] In some embodiments, the probability of personnel casualties on the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the drone is determined as follows:

[0058] The probability of personnel distribution in each grid of each area of ​​the target island and reef and the probability of personnel killing in each grid of each area of ​​the target island and reef under multiple batches of drone attacks are multiplied and then added together to determine the probability of personnel killing on the target island and reef as a whole under the impact load of the drone.

[0059] In some embodiments, the formula for determining the probability of personnel casualties on the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the drone is:

[0060]

[0061] In the formula, The probability of personnel being killed in each grid of each area of ​​the target island and reef after the drone attacks i+1 times and the probability of personnel distribution in each grid of each area of ​​the target island and reef are The sum of the products is accumulated.

[0062] The beneficial effect of the present invention compared with the prior art is that the present invention proposes a method for calculating the probability of personnel casualties on islands and reefs under the impact load of drones. The present invention starts from the overall perspective of the attacked islands and reefs, takes a macroscopic view of the overall situation of the islands and reefs, and calculates and statistics the overall probability of personnel casualties on the islands and reefs affected by the shock wave when the islands and reefs are attacked by drones, providing a reference for evaluating the damage to personnel under the attack of islands and reefs in wartime and considering corresponding defense measures.

[0063] The present invention can quickly calculate the probability of personnel casualties when an island or reef is subjected to the impact load of explosions of multiple batches of drones at multiple locations, making it convenient for researchers to timely adjust the distribution of personnel in different areas based on the probability of personnel casualties to reduce the probability of personnel casualties on the island or reef. At the same time, the construction area or construction height of the shelter on the island or reef can be adjusted to reduce the probability of personnel casualties on the island or reef. By reducing the probability of personnel casualties, casualties under potential attacks are significantly reduced, thereby ensuring the life safety of personnel on the island or reef. This helps to maintain the normal operation capacity of the island or reef and avoid functional paralysis.

[0064] It should be understood that the contents described in the Summary of the Invention section are not intended to limit the key or important features of the embodiments of the present invention, nor are they intended to limit the scope of the present invention. Other features of the present invention will become easy to understand through the following description. In addition, the implementation of any embodiment of the present invention does not mean that multiple or all of the above-mentioned beneficial effects must be possessed or achieved at the same time. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

[0065] In order to more clearly illustrate the implementation methods of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the following briefly introduces the drawings required for the implementation methods or the description of the prior art. Obviously, the drawings in the following description are only exemplary, and for ordinary technicians in this field, other implementation drawings can be derived from the provided drawings without creative work.

[0066] The structures, proportions, sizes, etc. illustrated in this specification are only used to match the contents disclosed in the specification so as to facilitate understanding and reading by persons familiar with the technology. They are not used to limit the conditions under which the present invention can be implemented, and therefore have no substantial technical significance. Any structural modification, change in proportion or adjustment in size shall still fall within the scope of the technical contents disclosed in the present invention without affecting the effects and purposes that can be achieved by the present invention.

[0067] Figure 1 It is a schematic diagram of the overall process of a method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone in some embodiments of the present invention;

[0068] Figure 2 This is a plan view of the 3D grid division of a certain island reef from a bird's-eye view;

[0069] Figure 3 A three-dimensional schematic diagram of the 3D grid division of a certain island or reef;

[0070] Figure 4 A schematic diagram of a table showing how to determine the killing distance under different killing probabilities at different amounts of explosives in an area where exposed personnel are active when simulating a drone attacking an island or reef according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0071] Figure 5 This is a fitting curve for determining the killing distance under different killing probabilities under different amounts of explosives in the unsheltered activity area of ​​a simulated drone attacking an island or reef according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 1 ;

[0072] Figure 6 A schematic diagram of a table showing the determination of the killing distances of different killing probabilities at different altitudes and different amounts of explosives in a simulated unmanned aerial vehicle attacking an island or reef in an embodiment of the present invention;

[0073] Figure 7 This is a fitting curve for determining the killing distance under different killing probabilities at different heights and different amounts of explosives in a simulated drone attack on an island or reef according to an embodiment of the present invention. Figure 2 . DETAILED DESCRIPTION

[0074] In order to make the purpose, technical solution and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clearly understood, the embodiments of the present invention are further described in detail below in conjunction with the embodiments and drawings. Here, the illustrative embodiments of the present invention and their descriptions are used to explain the present invention, but are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0075] In the present invention, unless otherwise clearly specified and limited, the terms "installed", "connected", "connected", "fixed" and the like should be understood in a broad sense, for example, it can be a fixed connection, a detachable connection, or an integral connection; it can be a mechanical connection or an electrical connection; it can be a direct connection or an indirect connection through an intermediate medium, it can be the internal connection of two elements or the interaction relationship between two elements. For ordinary technicians in this field, the specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood according to specific circumstances.

[0076] It should be understood that the terms "include / comprise", "consist of..." or any other variations are intended to cover non-exclusive inclusion, so that a product, device, process or method that includes a series of elements includes not only those elements, but also may include other elements not explicitly listed when necessary, or also includes elements inherent to such product, device, process or method. In the absence of more restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "include / comprise...", "consist of..." do not exclude the presence of other identical elements in the product, device, process or method that includes the elements.

[0077] It is also necessary to understand that terms such as "upper", "lower", "front", "back", "left", "right", "top", "bottom", "inside" and "outside" to indicate directions or positional relationships are based on the directions or positional relationships shown in the accompanying drawings, and are only for the convenience of describing the present invention and simplifying the description, and do not indicate or imply that the referred device, component or structure must have a specific direction, be constructed or operate in a specific direction, and should not be understood as a limitation on the present invention.

[0078] The implementation of the present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with preferred embodiments.

[0079] The present invention proposes a method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone. Figure 1 The flowchart shown includes the following steps: S10: dividing the target islands and reefs into areas with uncovered personnel activities and areas with covered personnel activities, and dividing each area into grids; S20: counting the distribution of personnel in each grid in each area at different time periods, and determining the probability of personnel distribution; S30: simulating and calculating the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different amounts of explosives when a single drone attacks an area with uncovered personnel activities, and drawing the corresponding fitting curve Figure 1 ; S40: Simulate and calculate the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when a single drone attacks a sheltered personnel activity area, and draw the corresponding fitting curve Figure 2 ; S50: Based on the fitting curve Figure 1 , Fitting curve Figure 2 Calculate the probability of personnel being killed or injured in each grid of each area of ​​the target island or reef under the attack of multiple batches of drones; S60: determine the probability of personnel being killed or injured in the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the drone.

[0080] It should be noted that, in other embodiments, the order of step S30 and step S40 in the flowchart can be swapped. The killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when a single drone attacks a sheltered personnel activity area can be simulated and calculated first, and the corresponding fitting curve can be drawn. Figure 2; Then simulate and calculate the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different amounts of explosives when a single drone attacks an unsheltered personnel activity area, and draw the corresponding fitting curve Figure 1 .

[0081] In step S10, the target islands and reefs are divided into areas where people move without shelter and areas where people move with shelter, and each area is divided into grids.

[0082] In this step, the target islands and reefs are first determined, that is, the islands and reefs for which personnel casualty probability simulation calculations are required; then, the target islands and reefs are divided into unsheltered personnel activity areas and sheltered personnel activity areas according to the distribution of personnel in different time periods; finally, each area is divided into grids.

[0083] It is easy to understand that an unsheltered personnel activity area refers to an area without shelter or protective measures. A sheltered personnel activity area refers to an area equipped with protective facilities that can provide shelter and protection for personnel in wartime or emergency situations. Sheltered personnel activity areas on target islands and reefs generally refer to shelter buildings with different height levels. The unsheltered personnel activity area here can be a living area or a work area. Similarly, a sheltered personnel activity area can also be a living area or a work area.

[0084] In some embodiments, gridding each area includes: establishing a three-dimensional rectangular coordinate system for the target islands and reefs. The coordinate system should satisfy the establishment of a spatial Cartesian rectangular coordinate system. When establishing the coordinate system, reference can be made to the principle of convenient expression. Figure 1 It is appropriate to choose the appropriate origin and x and y axis directions. In principle, the z axis should be perpendicular to the horizontal plane of the island and reef. The x coordinate axis represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system in the horizontal direction, that is, the distance in the x axis direction. The y coordinate axis represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system in the vertical direction, that is, the distance in the y axis direction. The z coordinate axis represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system in the height direction, that is, the distance in the z axis direction. Different 3D grids are divided for each area according to the different divided areas.

[0085] In this embodiment, each grid is positioned, numbered, and named, and the grid is referred to by the coordinates of the center point of the grid in the rectangular coordinate system, so as to clearly distinguish and specify each grid in subsequent calculations and formula expressions.

[0086] When making specific divisions, if the population in an area is relatively small or the distribution is relatively dispersed, a larger grid can be used; if the population in an area is relatively large or the distribution is relatively compact, a smaller grid can be used.

[0087] See also Figure 2 , Figure 3 ,in Figure 2This is a schematic diagram of the top-down perspective of the 3D grid division of a certain island reef. Figure 2 Provide reference for controlling the size of grid division, basic form and overall division logic. Figure 3 This is a three-dimensional schematic diagram of the 3D grid division of a certain island reef. Figure 3 Provide a reference for the specific spatial attribute form of the grid.

[0088] When dividing the island and reef areas into grids, the grids of the relevant areas should be divided as appropriate according to the buildings (shelters) contained in the area, the regional terrain, the approximate density of the population distribution, etc. Figure 2 The grid is a 3D grid, as shown in Figure 1. Figure 3 As shown in the figure, a regular cuboid is used as a grid unit. When a person's spatial position is within the cuboid, the person is considered to be a person of the corresponding grid and participates in the statistical calculation of the corresponding grid. In addition, for the description of each grid, the coordinates of the center point of each grid in the spatial rectangular coordinate system are taken It is used as a number to refer to each grid, which is used to facilitate the description and statistical calculation of the following steps.

[0089] In step S20, the distribution of personnel in each grid in each area in different time periods is counted to determine the probability of personnel distribution.

[0090] Specifically, the expression of personnel distribution probability is:

[0091] =

[0092] The present invention uses the personnel level weight ratio in each grid to represent the personnel distribution probability in each grid. For example, the basic weight of each person is 1. With reference to factors such as personal military rank and the core degree of work, some personnel can be given higher weights such as 2, 3, 4, etc. through comprehensive evaluation. Then, based on the actual weight value of each person, the sum of the weights of the personnel in each grid and the sum of the weights of the personnel on the target islands and reefs are determined. Then, the sum of the weights of the personnel in each grid divided by the sum of the weights of the personnel on the target islands and reefs is the personnel level weight ratio in each grid.

[0093] In this step, from the perspective of the military strategy of the target islands and reefs, when evaluating the probability of casualties on the target islands and reefs, it is necessary to comprehensively consider factors such as the overall wartime command significance of each personnel to the target islands and reefs, refer to personal military rank and the core degree of their work, and give some personnel a higher weight ratio to ensure that the calculation result of the final kill probability has practical reference significance for the evaluation of island and reef resilience (the ability of islands and reefs to resist destruction and repair after attacks) from the perspective of personnel casualties.

[0094] In step S30, the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different amounts of explosives when the drone attacks the uncovered personnel activity area is simulated and calculated, and the corresponding fitting curve is drawn Figure 1 .

[0095] This step specifically includes:

[0096] Through simulation calculation, the shock wave overpressure corresponding to different distances with different explosive amounts is obtained;

[0097] Based on the analysis of the damage to human body caused by overpressure, the probability of personnel casualties is assessed based on the damage to human body;

[0098] Determine the killing distance corresponding to different amounts of explosives based on the probability of killing different personnel;

[0099] Record multiple data on the killing distance determined by the probability of killing different personnel under different amounts of explosives in a table;

[0100] Based on the data in the above table, a fitting curve of the probability of killing personnel at different killing distances under different amounts of explosives is drawn. Figure 1 .

[0101] More specifically, in this step, the shock wave overpressure corresponding to different distances under different explosive amounts should be obtained through simulation calculation, and then the human body injury condition should be analyzed based on the overpressure, and the killing probability should be evaluated based on the human body injury condition, and the detonation point distance (killing distance) corresponding to different killing probabilities should be obtained comprehensively. The results should be recorded in a table, and the data should be plotted into a fitting curve. Figure 1 , so that you can directly look up the diagram when making formal calculations.

[0102] In one specific embodiment, see Figure 4 , Figure 5 The computer software was used to simulate and calculate the shock wave overpressure at different distances when the explosive quantities were 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg and 30m(TNT) / kg. The human body injuries were analyzed based on the overpressure, and the killing probability was evaluated based on the human body injuries. The critical distance from the detonation point corresponding to the probability of killing personnel of 1% and 99% under different explosive quantities was obtained comprehensively. Specifically, when the explosive quantities are 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg and 30m(TNT) / kg, the critical distances from the detonation point when the probability of killing is 1% are 0.6m, 1.6m, 2.4m, 3.3m and 4m respectively; when the probability of killing is 99%, the critical distances from the detonation point are 0.4m, 0.9m, 1.4m, 2.0m and 2.6m respectively. Record the above data in Figure 4In the table shown, and according to Figure 4 The tabular data shown is plotted as Figure 5 The fitting curve shown Figure 1 , so as to directly consult the diagram for formal calculation. The data in this embodiment are derived from relevant literature. It should be understood that the above data are only used as a reference for exemplary description, and the specific parameters need to be determined separately according to the specific simulation results during the actual implementation process.

[0103] In the present invention, when checking the map to confirm the probability of killing people in a certain grid in the uncovered personnel activity area under a single attack by a drone, the killing distance between the center of the grid and the attacked center (based on the distance from the detonation point) should be calculated first, and then in the corresponding killing probability map, the killing distance between the center of the grid and the attacked center should be calculated. Figure 5 For example, according to the amount of explosives in the attack and the distance from the detonation point, the corresponding points are drawn in the graph. When the point is below the 99% probability line in the graph, the probability of death of the people in the grid is considered to be 100%. When the point is above the 1% probability line in the graph, the probability of death of the people in the grid is considered to be 0. When the point is between the 99% and 1% probability lines in the graph, the probability of killing the people in the grid is considered to be 50%.

[0104] It is easy to understand that this step is not limited to 99% and 1% kill probabilities, and more accurate kill probabilities such as 90%, 65%, and 10% can be used to divide the human body injury situation more finely. Figure 1 The same principle can be applied in the figure. According to the attack situation, other kill probability values ​​can be used accordingly.

[0105] In step S40, the killing distances corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when the drone attacks the sheltered personnel activity area in a single attack are simulated and calculated, and the corresponding fitting curves are drawn. Figure 2 .

[0106] This step specifically includes:

[0107] The shock wave overpressure at different height layers of the corresponding shelter under different explosive amounts is calculated by simulation;

[0108] Based on the analysis of the damage to the human body caused by overpressure, the probability of personnel casualties is assessed based on the damage to the human body;

[0109] Based on the different probability of killing different personnel, determine the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives;

[0110] Record multiple data of different killing probabilities corresponding to different heights of the shelter under different amounts of explosives to determine the killing distance in a table;

[0111] Based on the data in the above table, a fitting curve of the probability of killing personnel at different killing distances at different heights of the shelter under different amounts of explosives is drawn. Figure 2 .

[0112] More specifically, in this step, simulation calculations should be performed for each type of building (shelter at different heights) that may appear on the target island or reef, and the overpressure at different heights in the building at different distances from the center of the bottom of the building to the detonation point under different amounts of explosives should be obtained. Then, based on the analysis of the damage to the human body caused by the overpressure, the probability of killing should be assessed based on the damage to the human body, and the distance from the bottom of the building to the detonation point (killing distance) corresponding to different killing probabilities should be obtained comprehensively. The results should be recorded in a table, and the data should be plotted as a fitting surface. Figure 2 , so that you can directly look up the diagram when making formal calculations.

[0113] In one specific embodiment, see Figure 6 , Figure 7The computer software is used to simulate and calculate the shock wave overpressure of the shelter at the height layers of 0m, 3m and 6m when the explosive amount is 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg and 30m(TNT) / kg. Then, based on the analysis of the human body injury caused by the overpressure, the killing probability is evaluated based on the human body injury. The critical distance of the detonation point corresponding to the killing probability of 1% and 99% under different explosive amounts is obtained when the shelter height is 0m, 3m and 6m. Specifically, when the height of the shelter is 0m, and the amount of explosives is 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg and 30m(TNT) / kg respectively, the critical distance from the detonation point when the killing probability is 1% is 0.6m, 1.6m, 2.4m, 3.3m and 4m respectively; the critical distance from the detonation point when the killing probability is 99% is 0.4m, 0.9m, 1.4m, 2.0m and 2.6m respectively. When the height of the shelter is 3m, and the amount of explosives is 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg and 30m(TNT) / kg respectively, the critical distance from the detonation point when the killing probability is 1% is 0.55m, 1.55m, 2.35m, 3.25m and 3.95m respectively; the critical distance from the detonation point when the killing probability is 99% is 0.35m, 0.85m, 1.35m, 1.95m and 2.55m respectively. When the shelter height is 5m, and the explosive quantities are 1m(TNT) / kg, 5m(TNT) / kg, 10m(TNT) / kg, 20m(TNT) / kg and 30m(TNT) / kg respectively, the critical distances from the detonation point when the probability of killing is 1% are 0.5m, 1.5m, 2.3m, 3.2m and 3.9m respectively; the critical distances from the detonation point when the probability of killing is 99% are 0.3m, 0.8m, 1.3m, 1.9m and 2.5m respectively. Record the above data in Figure 6 In the table shown, and according to Figure 6 The table shown is drawn as Figure 7 The fitting curve shown Figure 2 , for direct reference in formal calculations. It should be understood that the above data is only for reference in exemplary descriptions, and the specific parameters need to be determined separately according to specific simulation results during actual implementation.

[0114] In the present invention, when checking the map to confirm the probability of killing people in a certain grid at a certain height layer with a sheltered personnel activity area under a single attack by a drone, the killing distance between the bottom center of the building corresponding to the grid and the attacked center (based on the distance from the detonation point) should be calculated first, and then in the killing probability map of the corresponding height layer of the corresponding building, the killing distance between the bottom center of the building corresponding to the grid and the attacked center should be calculated first. Figure 7 For example, according to the amount of explosives in the attack and the distance from the detonation point, the corresponding points are drawn in the graph. When the point is below the 99% line of the kill probability in the graph, the probability of death of the people in the grid is considered to be 100%. When the point is above the 1% line of the kill probability in the graph, the probability of death of the people in the grid is considered to be 0. When the point is between the 99% and 1% lines of the kill probability in the graph, the probability of killing the people in the grid is considered to be 50%.

[0115] It is easy to understand that, similar to the previous step, in this step, the kill probability is not limited to 99% and 1%, and more accurate kill probabilities such as 90%, 65%, 10% can be used to divide the human body injury situation more finely. Of course, it is not limited to the building height of 0m, 3m and 6m, and other building heights such as 2.8m, 5.6m and 8.4m or other building heights can also be used. At this time, in the fitting curve Figure 2 The same principle can be applied in the figure. According to the attack situation, other kill probability values ​​can be used accordingly.

[0116] In step S50, the probability of personnel casualties in each grid of each area of ​​the target island or reef under multiple batches of drone attacks is calculated.

[0117] In this step, we should first confirm the multiple representative target points of the target islands and reefs that the drones have attacked multiple times based on expert experience and research, and determine the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point; then, based on the fitting curve Figure 1 Determine the corresponding killing probability of each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area when it is attacked by drones once, twice, ..., multiple times, and based on the fitting curve Figure 2 Determine the corresponding killing probability of each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area when it is attacked by the drone once, twice, ..., multiple times; finally, according to the fitting curve Figure 1 The multiple kill probabilities determined are used to calculate the kill probability of each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area after multiple batches of drone attacks, and the probability of personnel being killed is calculated based on the fitting curve. Figure 2 The determined multiple kill probabilities calculate the probability of personnel kill in each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area after multiple batches of drone attacks.

[0118] In the present invention, each attack launched by each attacking body (drone) is first calculated separately in sequence. An attack launched by one attacking body on one attack point is counted as one attack action.

[0119] In a specific embodiment, calculating the probability of killing people in each grid of the uncovered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks specifically includes:

[0120] Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone attacks i+1 times in a row and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point;

[0121] Based on the target point of a drone attack, calculate the position of each grid point in each area of ​​the uncovered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of killing people corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0122] Determine the location of each grid point in each area of ​​the uncovered personnel activity area Probability of casualties in a single drone attack:

[0123]

[0124] Based on the target points of the drone during the second attack, calculate the grid points of each area in the unsheltered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of killing people corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0125] Determine the location of each grid point in each area of ​​the uncovered personnel activity area Probability of casualties in a second drone attack:

[0126]

[0127] Based on the target points of the three drone attacks, the position of each grid point in each area of ​​the uncovered personnel activity area is calculated. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1 Find the probability of killing people corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0128] Determine the location of each grid point in each area of ​​the uncovered personnel activity area Probability of casualties in three drone attacks:

[0129]

[0130] Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, the grid point of each area in the unsheltered personnel activity area is calculated. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 1Find the probability of killing people corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0131] Determine the location of each grid point in each area of ​​the uncovered personnel activity area The probability of casualties in the case of i+1 drone attacks:

[0132] .

[0133] In a specific embodiment, calculating the probability of killing people in each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks specifically includes:

[0134] Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone attacks i+1 times in a row and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point;

[0135] Based on the target point of a drone attack, calculate the grid point of each area at different altitudes in each area of ​​the sheltered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of killing people at the corresponding killing distance at different altitudes ;

[0136] Determine the location of each grid point at different altitudes in each area of ​​the sheltered personnel activity area Probability of casualties in a single drone attack:

[0137]

[0138] Based on the target points of the drone during the second attack, calculate the grid points of each area at different altitudes in each area of ​​the sheltered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of killing people at the corresponding killing distance at different altitudes ;

[0139] Determine the location of each grid point at different altitudes in each area of ​​the sheltered personnel activity area Probability of casualties in a second drone attack:

[0140]

[0141] Based on the target points of the three drone attacks, calculate the grid points of each area at different altitudes in each area of ​​the sheltered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of killing people corresponding to the killing distance ;

[0142] Determine the location of each grid point at different altitudes in each area of ​​the sheltered personnel activity area Probability of casualties in three drone attacks:

[0143]

[0144] Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, the grid points of each area at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area are calculated. The killing distance from the target point and the fitting curve Figure 2 Find the probability of killing people at the corresponding killing distance at different altitudes ;

[0145] Determine the location of each grid point at different altitudes in each area of ​​the sheltered personnel activity area The probability of casualties under the attack of drone i+1 times:

[0146] .

[0147] In step S60, the probability of personnel killing of the entire target island or reef under the impact load of the drone is determined. In this step, the probability of personnel killing of the entire target island or reef under the impact load of the drone is determined by multiplying the probability of personnel distribution of each grid in each area of ​​the target island or reef and the probability of personnel killing of each grid in each area of ​​the target island or reef under multiple batches of drone attacks.

[0148] In some embodiments, the formula for determining the probability of personnel casualties on the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the drone is:

[0149]

[0150] In the formula, is the probability of personnel being killed in each grid of each area of ​​the target island and reef after the drone attacks i+1 times and the probability of personnel distribution in each grid of each area of ​​the target island and reef The sum of the products is accumulated.

[0151] It is easy to understand that the method for calculating the probability of killing and wounding personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of drones proposed in the present invention is mainly divided into two parts: the pre-preparation link and the specific calculation link. Specifically, in the pre-preparation link, when the specific attack situation is not considered, the islands and reefs are pre-divided into grids of appropriate coarseness and fineness according to the distribution of personnel on the islands and reefs; the killing probability of personnel in the unsheltered personnel activity area and various types of sheltered personnel activity areas when subjected to shock waves of different explosive amounts and different killing distances is calculated by simulation, and the results are drawn in the form of a chart for easy reference. In the specific calculation link, when facing the specific attack situation, according to the pre-divided grids, the above-drawn chart is checked to obtain the killing probability of personnel in each grid under a single attack, and then the killing probability superposition effect of the islands and reefs under multiple batches of attacks is considered. The comprehensive killing probability of personnel in each grid under multiple batches of attacks is obtained by probability calculation, and the obtained results are multiplied by the probability of the number of personnel distribution in each grid, and then the results of all grids are added to finally obtain the overall killing probability of the islands and reefs as a whole when attacked by drones.

[0152] The present invention can quickly calculate the probability of personnel casualties when the target island or reef is subjected to the impact load of explosions of multiple batches of drones at multiple locations, making it convenient for researchers to timely adjust the distribution of personnel in different areas based on the probability of personnel casualties to reduce the probability of personnel casualties on the island or reef. At the same time, the construction area or construction height of the shelter on the island or reef can be adjusted to reduce the probability of personnel casualties on the island or reef. By reducing the probability of personnel casualties, casualties under potential attacks are significantly reduced, thereby ensuring the life safety of personnel on the island or reef. This helps to maintain the normal operation capacity of the island or reef and avoid functional paralysis.

[0153] It is easy for those skilled in the art to understand that, under the premise of no conflict, the above-mentioned preferred solutions can be freely combined and superimposed.

[0154] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone, characterized in that: The steps include: Divide the target islands and reefs into areas with shelter and areas without shelter, and divide each area into grids; Count the distribution of people in each grid in each area at different time periods and determine the probability of people distribution; The simulation calculates the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different amounts of explosives when a drone attacks an unsheltered personnel activity area in a single attack, and draws the corresponding fitting curve Figure 1; The simulation calculates the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when the drone attacks the sheltered personnel activity area in a single attack, and draws the corresponding fitting curve Figure 2; Based on the fitting curve graph 1 and the fitting curve graph 2, the probability of personnel killing in each grid of each area of ​​the target island and reef under multiple batches of attacks by drones is calculated; Determine the probability of casualties on the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the drone.

2. The method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The grid division of each area comprises: Establishing a three-dimensional rectangular coordinate system for the target islands and reefs; Based on at least one of the building conditions, regional terrain, and population density, each area is divided into 3D grids of different coarseness and density.

3. The method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The personnel distribution probability is: = ； Where x represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system in the horizontal direction, that is, the distance in the x-axis direction; y represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system in the vertical direction, that is, the distance in the y-axis direction; and z represents the distance between the center point of the grid and the origin of the coordinate system in the height direction, that is, the distance in the z-axis direction.

4. The method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The simulation calculation of the killing distance corresponding to different killing probabilities under different amounts of explosives when a drone attacks an unsheltered personnel activity area in a single attack, and drawing the corresponding fitting curve diagram specifically includes: Simulate and calculate the shock wave overpressure at different distances with different explosive amounts; Based on the analysis of the damage to the human body caused by the shock wave overpressure, the probability of personnel casualties is assessed based on the damage to the human body; Determine the killing distance corresponding to different amounts of explosives based on the probability of killing different personnel; Based on multiple data of killing distances determined by the killing probabilities of different personnel under different amounts of explosives, a fitting curve of the killing probabilities of personnel corresponding to different killing distances under multiple different amounts of explosives is drawn (Figure 1).

5. The method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The simulation calculation of the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives when the drone attacks the sheltered personnel activity area in a single attack, and drawing the corresponding fitting curve graph 2 specifically includes: Simulate and calculate the shock wave overpressure at different height layers of the corresponding shelter under different explosive quantities; Based on the analysis of the damage to the human body caused by the shock wave overpressure, the probability of personnel casualties is assessed based on the damage to the human body; Based on the different probability of killing different personnel, determine the killing distance corresponding to different height layers of the shelter under different amounts of explosives; Based on multiple data of different killing probabilities corresponding to different heights of shelters with different amounts of explosives, the killing distance is determined, and a second fitting curve of the personnel killing probability corresponding to different killing distances at different heights of shelters with different amounts of explosives is drawn.

6. The method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 1 is characterized in that: The calculation of the probability of personnel casualties in each grid of each area of ​​the target island or reef under multiple batches of drone attacks specifically includes: Determine the multiple target points of the target islands and reefs that are attacked by drones in multiple batches and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point; Based on the fitting curve graph 1, determine the corresponding killing probability of each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area under the attack of drone once, twice, ..., multiple times; Based on the fitting curve Figure 2, determine the corresponding killing probability of each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area under one, two, ..., multiple attacks by drones; According to the multiple killing probabilities determined by the fitting curve diagram 1, the killing probability of personnel in each grid of the uncovered personnel activity area under the multi-batch attack of drones is calculated; According to the multiple killing probabilities determined by the fitting curve Figure 2, the probability of killing personnel in each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks is calculated.

7. The method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 6 is characterized in that: Calculating the probability of casualties for each grid in the uncovered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks specifically includes: Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone attacks i+1 times in a row and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point; Based on the target point of a drone attack, calculate the position of each grid point in each area of ​​the uncovered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point, and finding the killing probability of personnel corresponding to the killing distance in the fitting curve diagram 1 ; Determine the position of each grid point Probability of casualties in a single drone attack: ； Based on the target points of the drone during the second attack, calculate the grid points of each area in the unsheltered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point, and finding the killing probability of personnel corresponding to the killing distance in the fitting curve diagram 1 ; Determine the position of each grid point Probability of casualties in a second drone attack: ； Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, the grid point of each area in the unsheltered personnel activity area is calculated. The killing distance from the target point, and finding the killing probability of personnel corresponding to the killing distance in the fitting curve diagram 1 ; Determine the position of each grid point The probability of casualties under the attack of drone i+1 times: 。 8. The method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The calculation of the probability of casualties for each grid at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area under multiple batches of drone attacks specifically includes: Determine the i+1 target points of the target island and reef that the drone attacks i+1 times in a row and the amount of explosives corresponding to each target point; Based on the target point of a drone attack, calculate the grid point of each area at different altitudes in each area of ​​the sheltered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point, and the probability of killing personnel corresponding to the killing distance is found in the fitting curve diagram 2 ; Determine the position of each grid point Probability of casualties in a single drone attack: ； Based on the target points of the drone during the second attack, calculate the grid points of each area at different altitudes in each area of ​​the sheltered personnel activity area The killing distance from the target point, and the probability of killing personnel corresponding to the killing distance is found in the fitting curve diagram 2 ; Determine the position of each grid point Probability of casualties in a second drone attack: ； Similarly, based on the target point of the drone during the i+1 attack, the grid points of each area at different altitudes in the sheltered personnel activity area are calculated. The killing distance from the target point, and the probability of killing personnel corresponding to the killing distance is found in the fitting curve diagram 2 ; Determine the position of each grid point The probability of casualties under the attack of drone i+1 times: 。 9. The method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 6 is characterized in that: The probability of personnel casualties on the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the UAV is: The probability of personnel distribution in each grid of each area of ​​the target island and reef and the probability of personnel killing in each grid of each area of ​​the target island and reef under multiple batches of drone attacks are multiplied and then added together to determine the probability of personnel killing on the target island and reef as a whole under the impact load of the drone.

10. The method for calculating the probability of killing personnel on islands and reefs under the impact load of a drone according to claim 9 is characterized in that: The formula for determining the probability of personnel casualties on the target island or reef as a whole under the impact load of the UAV is: ； In the formula, The probability of personnel being killed in each grid of each area of ​​the target island and reef after the drone attacks i+1 times and the probability of personnel distribution in each grid of each area of ​​the target island and reef are The sum of the products is accumulated.

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