基于多尺度背景场误差协方差的区域数值预报方法及系统

By constructing a multi-scale background field error covariance model, the limitations of the single-scale model in traditional methods are overcome, resulting in more accurate data assimilation and forecasting results, and improving the overall accuracy and adaptability of regional numerical forecasting.

CN120195773BActive Publication Date: 2026-07-17内蒙古自治区气象台(内蒙古自治区环境气象预报中心)

Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
内蒙古自治区气象台(内蒙古自治区环境气象预报中心)
Filing Date
2025-03-24
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Traditional regional numerical weather prediction methods rely on a single-scale background field error covariance model, which is difficult to accurately describe the characteristics of multi-scale atmospheric motion, resulting in insufficient utilization of observational information and affecting the accuracy and reliability of forecasts.

Method used

A multi-scale background field error covariance model is constructed. By multi-scale decomposition and combination of error covariance matrices, the data assimilation process is optimized, observation information at different spatial scales is integrated, and the optimal initial field is generated for forecasting.

Benefits of technology

It improves the ability to simulate multi-scale atmospheric motions, enhances the accuracy and adaptability of forecast results, and provides richer forecast products, especially under complex terrain and variable weather conditions.

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Abstract

本发明公开了一种基于多尺度背景场误差协方差的区域数值预报方法及系统。该方法首先构建包含不同空间尺度误差结构的多尺度背景场误差协方差模型,然后获取预报区域的初始大气状态和边界条件,利用集合预报算法生成背景场集合样本。接着,基于该模型对背景场集合样本进行多尺度分解,得到不同空间尺度的误差分量,并确定相应的误差协方差矩阵。将这些矩阵组合形成完整的多尺度背景场误差协方差。随后,获取气象观测资料,应用变分同化算法,使用多尺度背景场误差协方差实现观测资料与背景场集合样本的最优结合,得到最优初始场。最后,基于最优初始场进行区域数值预报,得到预报区域未来天气状况预测结果。本方法提高了预报准确性和可靠性。
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