Residual life prediction method under mechanical multi-source monitoring data based on evidence theory

By integrating multi-source sensor data and using evidence theory to perform uncertainty modeling, the problem of low credibility of single sensor prediction is solved, and accurate equipment residual life prediction and uncertainty quantification is achieved, which is suitable for aerospace, nuclear energy and large-scale energy systems.

CN120296698APending Publication Date: 2025-07-11XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV
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Patent Information

Application Number
CN202510411069.1
Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2025-04-02
Publication Date
2025-07-11

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

The existing residual life prediction methods are mostly based on a single type of sensor, which cannot fully capture the health status of the device, and the prediction credibility is low when facing unknown distributed data, especially in industries with high security requirements.

Method used

Using a mechanical multi-source monitoring data prediction method based on evidence theory, a variety of sensor monitoring data are integrated and joint data and pseudo-data are constructed, uncertainty modeling is carried out through evidence coding and regression reasoning, and accurate life prediction and uncertainty quantification are achieved.

Benefits of technology

Accurate lifetime prediction under multi-source data, while quantifying accidents and cognitive uncertainties, improving the credibility and applicability of predictions, and is suitable for industries with high safety requirements such as aerospace, nuclear energy and large-scale energy systems.

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Abstract

The invention relates to an evidence theory-based residual life prediction method under mechanical multi-source monitoring data, which comprises the steps of auxiliary data type construction, multi-source uncertainty modeling, evidence coding and regression reasoning, and multi-source data fusion based on dynamic uncertainty. The prediction uncertainty is reasonably quantified while accurate life prediction is realized; in addition to monitoring data, two auxiliary data types, namely joint data and pseudo data, are introduced, so that available information is enriched; random uncertainty and cognitive uncertainty modeling is carried out on each data type through probabilistic reasoning of a neural network, and extra steps are not needed; according to the method, evidence distribution of various data is fused in a distribution summation mode, dynamic fusion of uncertainty is supported, the model is allowed to adaptively deal with anomalies, and the model further deduces final prediction distribution to complete comprehensive uncertainty inference.
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