Reservoir flood control forecast scheduling risk determination method

Abstract

The invention discloses a reservoir flood control forecast scheduling risk determination method. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a factor library, determining weights, and screening risk factors; estimating by using a probability density estimation method; performing scheduling simulation to obtain related data; and constructing a model, and establishing a risk assessment index system. The weight of each risk factor is obtained by adopting an analytic hierarchy process, constructing a judgment matrix, integrating opinions of multiple experts and calculating the maximum characteristic value and the corresponding characteristic vector by utilizing a mathematical method, so that not only are the experience and judgment of the experts considered, but also the objectivity and accuracy of weight determination are ensured through mathematical calculation, and meanwhile, the accuracy of risk factors is improved. In the process of constructing the judgment matrix, the relative importance among the risk factors is fully considered, and the effect of each risk factor in the actual risk can be reflected more comprehensively.

Images