基于区间预测的电力系统供需失衡预警方法
By using the interval forecasting method, a two-layer asymmetric forecasting model, and the constraint of thermal power regulation capacity, extreme supply and demand scenarios are constructed. This solves the supply and demand balance problem caused by the fluctuation of renewable energy output in the power system, and achieves accurate risk warning and improved system security.
Patent Information
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Patents(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- HARBIN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY (SHENZHEN) (INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION HARBIN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY SHENZHEN)
- Filing Date
- 2025-08-01
- Publication Date
- 2026-07-17
AI Technical Summary
Existing technologies cannot effectively characterize the volatility and intermittency of renewable energy output, which increases the difficulty of balancing power supply and demand, lacks risk tolerance, is prone to underreporting, and cannot accurately capture potential imbalance risks at the edge of system regulation capacity.
Using an interval-based forecasting method, the low and high quantile forecast values of photovoltaic, wind power, and load are output through a two-layer asymmetric forecasting model. Combined with the thermal power regulation capacity constraint, scenarios of supply surplus and shortage are constructed, risks are dynamically assessed, and early warning of supply-demand imbalance is triggered.
It improves the system's risk tolerance, reduces false alarms, achieves closed-loop linkage between forecasting and scheduling, provides directly usable risk assessment criteria, and ensures the safe and stable operation of the power system.
Smart Images
Figure CN120952535B_ABST