A method and system for predicting ecological risk of surface water organic phosphate ester pollution

Abstract

The application provides a surface water organic phosphate ester pollution ecological risk prediction method and system, the method comprises the following steps: obtaining an observation sample organic phosphate ester concentration data set and social economic and environmental variable data, and preprocessing; screening the social economic and environmental variables by an MC-UVE-RF method, retaining variables having a significant influence on the concentration as a model construction data set; constructing a random forest quantitative model by using the model construction data set and the observation sample concentration, optimizing parameters and judging whether the model prediction is accurate; predicting the organic phosphate ester concentration of a target area by using the model construction variable data set and the converged concentration quantitative model of the target area; quantifying the ecological risk by using the organic phosphate ester concentration prediction value, identifying the ecological risk grade, and projecting the ecological risk grade into the target area. The application improves the accuracy of the organic phosphate ester concentration prediction in the surface water, and realizes reliable evaluation of the ecological risk of the organic phosphate ester.

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