一种水库出库流量连续预测方法及装置

By constructing a reservoir storage and outflow model based on a long short-term memory network, and using characteristic data such as reservoir flow and timestamps for continuous prediction, the problem of dependence on observed storage in existing technologies is solved, and high-precision reservoir outflow prediction is achieved.

CN121525460BActive Publication Date: 2026-07-17TSINGHUA UNIVERSITY
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
Filing Date
2025-11-11
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing methods for predicting reservoir outflow based on long short-term memory networks rely on observed reservoir water storage data and do not perform well under unstable climate and changing human needs, resulting in predictions that deviate from actual values.

Method used

A reservoir storage and outflow model based on a long short-term memory network is adopted. By using characteristic data such as daily inflow, total inflow, water intake and timestamps, an input feature dataset is constructed. Through standardization processing, the reservoir outflow model is driven to make continuous predictions, avoiding dependence on observed storage.

Benefits of technology

It enables high-precision continuous prediction of reservoir outflow in the absence of continuous water storage observation data, improving the accuracy and stability of the prediction.

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Abstract

本发明提出一种水库出库流量连续预测方法及装置,属于流域水文模拟领域。所述方法包括:获取待预测时段每日对应的水库日入库流量,过去一个月、六个月、一年、两年、五年的总入库流量,取水量,时间戳,分别归一化后构建第一输入特征数据集,然后输入水库蓄水量模型,得到水库蓄水量的预测结果以及每日开始时的水库水位;将待预测时段每日及前两日的入库流量,过去一个月、六个月、一年、两年、五年的总入库流量,取水量,时间戳,及水库蓄水量模型的输出结果进行标准化后构建第二输入特征数据集,然后输入水库出流模型,得到待预测时段的出库流量序列。本发明显著提高连续预测水库出库流量的准确性,适用于缺乏连续蓄水观测数据的情况。
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