一种区域可再生能源的适宜性布局评价方法及评价系统

By employing techniques such as ARIMA models, Kriging interpolation, CatBoost, and XGBoost algorithms, the problems of weak variable explanatory power and insufficient spatial accuracy in renewable energy consumption assessment have been solved. Nonlinear modeling and multi-energy complementarity analysis have been achieved, improving the accuracy and interpretability of the assessment and supporting policy and engineering applications.

CN121543869BActive Publication Date: 2026-07-17XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV

Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
XI AN JIAOTONG UNIV
Filing Date
2025-11-05
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing technologies for assessing renewable energy consumption suffer from problems such as weak variable explanatory power, lack of marginal effects and threshold identification, insufficient spatial accuracy, and poor model interpretability, making it difficult to achieve refined planning.

Method used

The ARIMA model is used to impute missing values ​​in time series, Kriging interpolation and kernel density estimation are used to obtain spatial distribution, a nonlinear correlation model is established by combining CatBoost and XGBoost algorithms, the marginal effect curve is identified by the SHAP model, and spatial clustering is performed by the improved Getis-Ord Gi* and local Moran's I algorithms to achieve suitability mapping.

Benefits of technology

It achieves nonlinear and threshold modeling, significantly improving spatial accuracy and applicability. It can identify the optimal threshold range of key variables, support policy evaluation and regional energy layout optimization, provide multi-energy complementarity analysis, and provide a basis for the coupling of multi-energy systems.

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Abstract

本发明属于能源信息化与地理信息系统技术领域,涉及一种区域可再生能源的适宜性布局评价方法及评价系统,包括:1、数据预处理,插补时间序列缺失值,估计获取气象与设施空间分布;2、可再生能源–影响因子关联模型构建,建立能源消费与社会经济、自然环境因子的非线性关联模型;3、边际影响曲线识别,通过计算各变量的边际效应曲线,确定关键变量的最优阈值区间,生成非线性边际影响模型;4、适宜性制图与热点识别,利用改进算法实现空间聚类与适宜性制图;本发明能够识别出太阳能在工业设施密度下、居民设施达到最优吸收的阈值;风能的最优风速;水电的年降水量毫米数、服务设施密度的最适值。
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