An assessment and risk prediction method for the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species

Abstract

This invention relates to the field of plant ecological risk assessment and discloses a method for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species. The method includes the following steps: conducting a biological characteristic information survey and analysis of the target invasive mangrove species to construct a multi-dimensional assessment index system; and determining the risk of the target invasive mangrove species based on the different index scores provided by the system. After risk determination, the method assesses the risk evolution process and outputs a management plan to address the risk. This invention can comprehensively and thoroughly assess the overall impact of invasive mangrove species, without overlooking key risk points, while improving management efficiency and reducing decision-making arbitrariness and uncertainty.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of plant ecological risk assessment, and in particular to a method for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species. Background Technology

[0002] Exotic mangrove species refer to mangrove plant species that appear outside their native habitat through intentional or unintentional human introduction. For example, *Lagerstroemia indica* is native to Central and South America, and *Pterocarya stenoptera* is found in Bangladesh and India. These species were not originally present in the native ecosystems of East and Southeast Asia. The impacts of invasive mangrove species are complex and two-sided, but risk assessment primarily focuses on their potential negative impacts. These include the fact that many invasive mangroves grow extremely rapidly, forming tall, dense canopies that severely block sunlight, leading to insufficient light in the understory, inhibiting the growth and development of native mangrove seedlings and population regeneration. Furthermore, their large numbers of propagules allow them to quickly occupy mudflats, crowding out the habitat of native species. Simultaneously, invasive mangrove species can alter the community structure and diversity of benthic animals due to changes in food sources and habitats, thus affecting the entire food web. Dense root systems may change tidal currents and sediment deposition patterns, leading to changes in mudflat elevation, which may be unsuitable for the survival of some native species.

[0003] Because the impacts of ecological invasions are often irreversible or extremely difficult to reverse, once an invasive species establishes and spreads on a large scale, the cost of removal is extremely high, and it may be impossible to restore the original ecological state forever. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the ecological impact and predict the risks of invasive mangrove species. The advantage of assessment and risk prediction is that it avoids the one-sidedness of making decisions based on a single factor (such as growth rate). By constructing a multi-dimensional indicator system that covers ecological and social aspects, it is possible to comprehensively assess its overall impact without overlooking key risk points. Summary of the Invention

[0004] This invention overcomes the shortcomings of the prior art and provides a method for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species.

[0005] To achieve the above objectives, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is as follows: The first aspect of this invention provides a method for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species, comprising the following steps: A biological characteristic information survey and analysis was conducted on the target alien mangrove species, and the analysis results were integrated to generate a database; A multi-dimensional evaluation index system was constructed for the target alien mangrove species, and a scoring process was performed on the target alien mangrove species. Based on the scoring values ​​of different comprehensive impact indicators of the target alien mangrove species, the ecological impact index of the target alien mangrove species is calculated and the risk is initially assessed. A risk evolution assessment model for the target alien mangrove species is constructed to assess the risk of the target alien mangrove species at different time periods and output management solutions for the risk.

[0006] Furthermore, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the step of investigating and analyzing the biological characteristics of the target invasive mangrove species and integrating the analysis results to generate a database specifically includes: The species name of the introduced mangrove species is determined and designated as the target introduced mangrove species. At the same time, a big data network database is introduced, which records the reproductive characteristics and physiological adaptability of the target introduced mangrove species. The reproductive characteristics of the target alien mangrove species include annual yield, dispersal method, average survival time and average germination rate, and the physiological adaptability includes tolerance range to salinity, temperature, saline depth and duration, and soil pH. The reproductive characteristics and physiological adaptability of the target alien mangrove species are collectively referred to as the biological characteristics of the target alien mangrove species. The coordinates of the target alien mangrove species for ecological impact assessment and risk prediction are determined and marked as target coordinates. Aerial remote sensing images are acquired for the target coordinates. The aerial remote sensing images of the target coordinates are interpreted and drawn to create a distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, a tidal channel system map, and a digital elevation model at the target coordinates. Among them, other native tree species around the target coordinates are obtained and marked as the surrounding native tree species; Soil samples were collected at the target coordinates for chemical composition analysis. The chemical composition of the soil at the target coordinates was output. Combined with the distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, the tidal channel water system map, and the digital elevation model, and taking into account the biological characteristics of the target alien mangrove species, a dedicated database of the target alien mangrove species was constructed and labeled as the target database.

[0007] Furthermore, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the construction of a multi-dimensional evaluation index system for the target invasive mangrove species and the scoring processing of the target invasive mangrove species specifically includes: A comprehensive impact assessment index for the target alien mangrove species was developed. Based on this index, a questionnaire was constructed and distributed to relevant experts. The experts then scored the comprehensive impact assessment indexes for different target alien mangrove species to obtain the scores. We assign weights to the comprehensive impact indicators of different target alien mangrove species, and based on the weighting results, we assign weights and average scores to the scores of the comprehensive impact indicators of different target alien mangrove species, construct a multi-dimensional evaluation index system for target alien mangrove species, and label it as the target evaluation index system. Within the target coordinates, measure the tree height, diameter at breast height (DBH), and crown width of the target alien mangrove species and the surrounding native tree species, and calculate the competition index between the target alien mangrove species and the surrounding native tree species based on the measurement results. At the same time, count the actual number of the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates. Through the target evaluation index system, the competition index between the target alien mangrove species and the surrounding native tree species, the actual number of the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates, and the target database are jointly analyzed to output the score values ​​of different comprehensive impact consideration indicators of the target alien mangrove species. Meanwhile, within the target assessment indicator system, different comprehensive impact consideration indicators are divided into positive and negative categories to obtain positive and negative indicators. The higher the score of the positive indicator, the higher the risk of the target alien mangrove species; conversely, the higher the score of the negative indicator, the higher the benefit of the target alien mangrove species.

[0008] Furthermore, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the step of calculating the ecological impact index and making a preliminary risk assessment of the target alien mangrove species by combining the score values ​​of different comprehensive impact consideration indicators of the target alien mangrove species specifically includes: The scoring values ​​of the indicators considering different comprehensive impacts of the target alien mangrove species are divided into positive and negative indicators. Considering the weight allocation results of indicators based on the comprehensive impact of different target alien mangrove species, an indicator judgment matrix is ​​constructed. The indicator judgment matrix is ​​a matrix that comprehensively judges and outputs the total score of the target alien mangrove species based on the score values ​​of positive and negative indicators. Within the indicator judgment matrix, a comprehensive impact consideration indicator represents a feature vector, and the score value corresponds to the feature value. All feature vectors are normalized, and the consistency of all normalized feature vectors is checked to obtain the final combined weight of the ecological impact risk assessment of the target alien mangrove species. Based on the final combined weights of the ecological impact risk assessment of the target alien mangrove species, a linear weighted summation scoring model is constructed, and the scores of positive and negative indicators are imported into the linear weighted summation scoring model to output the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species. The total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species is converted into discrete risk levels, wherein the risk levels are divided according to the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species.

[0009] Furthermore, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the step of constructing a risk evolution assessment model for the target invasive mangrove species, assessing the risk of the target invasive mangrove species after different time periods, and outputting a risk management plan specifically includes: Within a big data network database, emissions management policies and climate trend changes within a predetermined risk evolution period are retrieved, wherein the predetermined risk evolution period is the set time for risk evolution assessment of the target alien mangrove species. Based on emission management policies and climate trend changes within a predetermined risk evolution period, different risk evolution period development scenarios are generated. The risk evolution period development scenario refers to the growth environment of the target alien mangrove species under different emission management policies and climate trend changes within the risk evolution period. A species distribution model and a cellular automaton model are constructed and coupled. The species distribution model is constructed by fitting the distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, the tidal channel water system map and the digital elevation model at the target coordinates. The cellular automaton model is a model that simulates the diffusion process of the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates based on the distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, the tidal channel water system map and the digital elevation model at the target coordinates. The coupled species distribution model and cellular automata model are labeled as coupled prediction models. Different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios are imported into the coupled prediction models. At the same time, the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species is also imported into the coupled prediction models. Running the coupled prediction model, based on the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species, outputs a risk level distribution prediction map under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios; By combining risk level distribution prediction maps under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios, a risk management plan is constructed.

[0010] Furthermore, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the step of constructing a risk management scheme by combining risk level distribution prediction maps under different risk evolution time periods specifically includes: The development scenarios of different risk evolution time periods are ranked sequentially, and the risk level distribution prediction maps under different risk evolution time periods are combined and analyzed based on the ranking results. Among them, the combined analysis is to construct a risk level distribution prediction trend map of the target alien mangrove species based on the risk level distribution prediction map under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios. Analyze the risk level distribution prediction evolution trend map of the target alien mangrove species and determine the danger level. At the target coordinates, if the risk level of the ecological impact of the target alien mangrove species within the risk evolution time period is a danger level, then the corresponding risk evolution time period is marked as a danger time period. The dangerous time period is analyzed to determine the time distance between the dangerous time period and the current time. If the time distance is greater than the standard value, a risk management plan of type I is output; otherwise, a risk management plan of type II is output. One type of risk management plan involves immediately eradicating the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates and chemically disinfecting the soil and water sources at the target coordinates. The second type of risk management plan involves delineating a planting area for the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates, setting an ecological impact reassessment time, conducting an ecological impact reassessment and risk prediction for the target alien mangrove species, and simultaneously planting surrounding native tree species.

[0011] A second aspect of this invention also provides a system for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species. This system integrates a high-performance computing architecture and a data storage module, including a non-volatile memory consisting of a DDR4 RDIMM memory module with ECC verification and an NVMe solid-state storage array using 3D NAND flash memory, as well as a multi-core processor based on the Zen4 microarchitecture. The memory contains a program for assessing and predicting the risk, which has an assessment engine. When this program is executed in parallel via a superscalar pipeline execution unit within the processor, the following steps are achieved: A biological characteristic information survey and analysis was conducted on the target alien mangrove species, and the analysis results were integrated to generate a database; A multi-dimensional evaluation index system was constructed for the target alien mangrove species, and a scoring process was performed on the target alien mangrove species. Based on the scoring values ​​of different comprehensive impact indicators of the target alien mangrove species, the ecological impact index of the target alien mangrove species is calculated and the risk is initially assessed. A risk evolution assessment model for the target alien mangrove species is constructed to assess the risk of the target alien mangrove species at different time periods and output management solutions for the risk.

[0012] This invention addresses the technical deficiencies in the existing technology and offers the following advantages: It conducts biological characteristic information surveys and analyses of target alien mangrove species to construct a multi-dimensional assessment index system. Based on the different index scores provided by the system, it assesses the risk of the target alien mangrove species. After risk assessment, it evaluates the risk evolution process and outputs management solutions for the risks. This invention can comprehensively and thoroughly assess the overall impact of alien mangrove species, without overlooking key risk points, while improving management efficiency and reducing decision-making arbitrariness and uncertainty. Attached Figure Description

[0013] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention or the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of the present invention. For those skilled in the art, other embodiments can be obtained from these drawings without creative effort.

[0014] Figure 1 A flowchart is shown for an assessment and risk prediction method for the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species; Figure 2 A flowchart illustrating the method for generating risk management solutions is provided. Figure 3 A program view of a system for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species is shown. Detailed Implementation

[0015] To better understand the above-mentioned objectives, features, and advantages of the present invention, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be noted that, unless otherwise specified, the embodiments and features described in these embodiments can be combined with each other.

[0016] Many specific details are set forth in the following description in order to provide a full understanding of the invention. However, the invention may also be practiced in other ways different from those described herein, and therefore the scope of protection of the invention is not limited to the specific embodiments disclosed below.

[0017] Figure 1 A flowchart illustrating a method for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species is shown, including the following steps: S102: Conduct a biological characteristic information survey and analysis of the target alien mangrove species, and integrate the analysis results to generate a database; S104: Construct a multi-dimensional evaluation index system for the target alien mangrove species and perform scoring processing for the target alien mangrove species; S106: Based on the scoring values ​​of different comprehensive impact consideration indicators of the target alien mangrove species, calculate the ecological impact index and make a preliminary risk assessment of the target alien mangrove species; S108: Construct a risk evolution assessment model for the target alien mangrove species, assess the risk of the target alien mangrove species at different time periods, and output management solutions for the risk.

[0018] Furthermore, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the step of investigating and analyzing the biological characteristics of the target invasive mangrove species and integrating the analysis results to generate a database specifically includes: The species name of the introduced mangrove species is determined and designated as the target introduced mangrove species. At the same time, a big data network database is introduced, which records the reproductive characteristics and physiological adaptability of the target introduced mangrove species. The reproductive characteristics of the target alien mangrove species include annual yield, dispersal method, average survival time and average germination rate, and the physiological adaptability includes tolerance range to salinity, temperature, saline depth and duration, and soil pH. The reproductive characteristics and physiological adaptability of the target alien mangrove species are collectively referred to as the biological characteristics of the target alien mangrove species. The coordinates of the target alien mangrove species for ecological impact assessment and risk prediction are determined and marked as target coordinates. Aerial remote sensing images are acquired for the target coordinates. The aerial remote sensing images of the target coordinates are interpreted and drawn to create a distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, a tidal channel system map, and a digital elevation model at the target coordinates. Among them, other native tree species around the target coordinates are obtained and marked as the surrounding native tree species; Soil samples were collected at the target coordinates for chemical composition analysis. The chemical composition of the soil at the target coordinates was output. Combined with the distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, the tidal channel water system map, and the digital elevation model, and taking into account the biological characteristics of the target alien mangrove species, a dedicated database of the target alien mangrove species was constructed and labeled as the target database.

[0019] It should be noted that invasive mangrove species may cause competition and exclusion of native species, alter community structure and biodiversity, change ecosystem processes, and cause genetic pollution. However, the potential positive impacts of invasive mangrove species may also include rapid forestation and tidal flat stabilization. Therefore, ecological impact assessment and risk prediction are necessary. First, the biological characteristics of the target invasive mangrove species need to be determined, and this should be analyzed in conjunction with other data. Biological characteristics are used to analyze the growth status of the mangrove species after ecological evolution. Other data, including soil chemical composition at the target coordinates, distribution maps of the target invasive mangrove species, tidal channel maps, and digital elevation models, describe the environmental conditions surrounding the invasive mangrove species and are used to analyze changes after ecological evolution, comparing them to the current situation. These are all stored in a single database for ease of analysis.

[0020] Furthermore, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the construction of a multi-dimensional evaluation index system for the target invasive mangrove species and the scoring processing of the target invasive mangrove species specifically includes: A comprehensive impact assessment index for the target alien mangrove species was developed. Based on this index, a questionnaire was constructed and distributed to relevant experts. The experts then scored the comprehensive impact assessment indexes for different target alien mangrove species to obtain the scores. We assign weights to the comprehensive impact indicators of different target alien mangrove species, and based on the weighting results, we assign weights and average scores to the scores of the comprehensive impact indicators of different target alien mangrove species, construct a multi-dimensional evaluation index system for target alien mangrove species, and label it as the target evaluation index system. Within the target coordinates, measure the tree height, diameter at breast height (DBH), and crown width of the target alien mangrove species and the surrounding native tree species, and calculate the competition index between the target alien mangrove species and the surrounding native tree species based on the measurement results. At the same time, count the actual number of the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates. Through the target evaluation index system, the competition index between the target alien mangrove species and the surrounding native tree species, the actual number of the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates, and the target database are jointly analyzed to output the score values ​​of different comprehensive impact consideration indicators of the target alien mangrove species. Meanwhile, within the target assessment indicator system, different comprehensive impact consideration indicators are divided into positive and negative categories to obtain positive and negative indicators. The higher the score of the positive indicator, the higher the risk of the target alien mangrove species; conversely, the higher the score of the negative indicator, the higher the benefit of the target alien mangrove species.

[0021] It should be noted that the questionnaire for constructing the comprehensive impact assessment indicators for the target invasive mangrove species was determined by an expert panel to ensure the scientific rigor, comprehensiveness, and authority of the subsequently constructed indicator system, avoiding subjective assumptions. The generated scores require weighting and equal-ratio evaluation. Weighting is necessary because different indicators have varying impacts; some have direct effects while others have minimal ones, thus requiring weighting to ensure more accurate indicator evaluation. Equal-ratio evaluation ensures that expert opinions are concentrated and more standardized, resulting in the target assessment indicator system. Since invasive mangrove species may compete with surrounding native tree species, including but not limited to absorbing nutrients and encroaching on their growing environment, a competition index needs to be calculated to maintain the reliability and authenticity of the data indicators. Furthermore, the actual number of target invasive mangrove species at the target coordinates is statistically analyzed to enrich the data indicators and obtain a more complete and comprehensive score. Finally, the data indicators are divided into positive and negative indicators. Higher scores for positive indicators indicate higher risks to the target invasive mangrove species, and vice versa.

[0022] Furthermore, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the step of calculating the ecological impact index and making a preliminary risk assessment of the target alien mangrove species by combining the score values ​​of different comprehensive impact consideration indicators of the target alien mangrove species specifically includes: The scoring values ​​of the indicators considering different comprehensive impacts of the target alien mangrove species are divided into positive and negative indicators. Considering the weight allocation results of indicators based on the comprehensive impact of different target alien mangrove species, an indicator judgment matrix is ​​constructed. The indicator judgment matrix is ​​a matrix that comprehensively judges and outputs the total score of the target alien mangrove species based on the score values ​​of positive and negative indicators. Within the indicator judgment matrix, a comprehensive impact consideration indicator represents a feature vector, and the score value corresponds to the feature value. All feature vectors are normalized, and the consistency of all normalized feature vectors is checked to obtain the final combined weight of the ecological impact risk assessment of the target alien mangrove species. Based on the final combined weights of the ecological impact risk assessment of the target alien mangrove species, a linear weighted summation scoring model is constructed, and the scores of positive and negative indicators are imported into the linear weighted summation scoring model to output the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species. The total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species is converted into discrete risk levels, wherein the risk levels are divided according to the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species.

[0023] It should be noted that a judgment matrix is ​​constructed based on different scoring values ​​and the weighting of indicators. The purpose is to compare the importance of indicators within the same level and combine different scores to output a total score. The judgment matrix also requires consistency checks and normalization, as it is assumed that judgments may be contradictory, resulting in contradictory outcomes such as A being more important than B, B being more important than C, but A being less important than C. Therefore, consistency checks are necessary. The final combined weights for the ecological impact risk assessment of the target alien mangrove species are obtained, and a total score is generated. Different total scores correspond to different risk levels; a higher total score indicates a greater overall ecological risk that the alien mangrove species may pose to the ecosystem. Finally, continuous scoring values ​​need to be converted into discrete risk levels to make the risk assessment results more intuitive, easier to understand, and easier to communicate. Thresholds can be preset based on the scores, and risk levels can be divided into branches with different thresholds.

[0024] Figure 2 A flowchart illustrating the method for outputting risk management solutions is provided, including the following steps: S202: Construct a risk evolution assessment model for the target alien mangrove species, assess the risk of the target alien mangrove species at different time periods, and output management solutions for the risk; S204: Construct a risk management plan by combining the risk level distribution prediction map under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios.

[0025] Furthermore, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the step of constructing a risk evolution assessment model for the target invasive mangrove species, assessing the risk of the target invasive mangrove species after different time periods, and outputting a risk management plan specifically includes: Within a big data network database, emissions management policies and climate trend changes within a predetermined risk evolution period are retrieved, wherein the predetermined risk evolution period is the set time for risk evolution assessment of the target alien mangrove species. Based on emission management policies and climate trend changes within a predetermined risk evolution period, different risk evolution period development scenarios are generated. The risk evolution period development scenario refers to the growth environment of the target alien mangrove species under different emission management policies and climate trend changes within the risk evolution period. A species distribution model and a cellular automaton model are constructed and coupled. The species distribution model is constructed by fitting the distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, the tidal channel water system map and the digital elevation model at the target coordinates. The cellular automaton model is a model that simulates the diffusion process of the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates based on the distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, the tidal channel water system map and the digital elevation model at the target coordinates. The coupled species distribution model and cellular automata model are labeled as coupled prediction models. Different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios are imported into the coupled prediction models. At the same time, the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species is also imported into the coupled prediction models. Running the coupled prediction model, based on the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species, outputs a risk level distribution prediction map under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios; By combining risk level distribution prediction maps under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios, a risk management plan is constructed.

[0026] It should be noted that the growth and changes of mangrove species vary under different emission management policies and climate trends. One emission management policy or climate trend change may cause harm to mangrove species growth, while another may not. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the changes in mangrove species based on different emission management policies and climate trend changes, i.e., different risk evolution time periods. Even the same emission management policy and climate trend change will have different impacts at different time periods. A species distribution model and a cellular automata model are constructed and coupled to build a model simulating species growth and spatial dispersal, used to analyze and predict changes in the growth status of mangrove species. After constructing the model, analyzing the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios yields predicted information on the ecological impact distribution of the target alien mangrove species under different time periods and development scenarios, thus constructing a risk level distribution prediction map under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios. The map visually shows the locations and distribution of high-risk areas at the covered target coordinates.

[0027] Furthermore, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the step of constructing a risk management scheme by combining risk level distribution prediction maps under different risk evolution time periods specifically includes: The development scenarios of different risk evolution time periods are ranked sequentially, and the risk level distribution prediction maps under different risk evolution time periods are combined and analyzed based on the ranking results. Among them, the combined analysis is to construct a risk level distribution prediction trend map of the target alien mangrove species based on the risk level distribution prediction map under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios. Analyze the risk level distribution prediction evolution trend map of the target alien mangrove species and determine the danger level. At the target coordinates, if the risk level of the ecological impact of the target alien mangrove species within the risk evolution time period is a danger level, then the corresponding risk evolution time period is marked as a danger time period. The dangerous time period is analyzed to determine the time distance between the dangerous time period and the current time. If the time distance is greater than the standard value, a risk management plan of type I is output; otherwise, a risk management plan of type II is output. One type of risk management plan involves immediately eradicating the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates and chemically disinfecting the soil and water sources at the target coordinates. The second type of risk management plan involves delineating a planting area for the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates, setting an ecological impact reassessment time, conducting an ecological impact reassessment and risk prediction for the target alien mangrove species, and simultaneously planting surrounding native tree species.

[0028] It should be noted that the risk evolution timelines exhibit a chronological order, meaning that changes in potential emission requirements and climate trends are temporally correlated. Based on this chronological order, a risk level distribution prediction evolution trend map of the target alien mangrove species is constructed. This risk level distribution prediction evolution trend map visually illustrates the state evolution of alien mangrove species. Initially, there may be no impact, but it may gradually affect the ecosystem, or it may cause a significant impact in a very short time. Therefore, based on the corresponding risk levels, the risk level that will cause a significant impact is determined and marked as a dangerous risk level. The time period corresponding to the dangerous risk level is then identified. Analysis is performed based on the time distance between this time period and the current time period. If it is determined that immediate ecological treatment is needed, or that the impact of alien mangrove species on the ecosystem is gradually reduced through remediation, then a Class I risk management plan and a Class II risk management plan are identified.

[0029] like Figure 3 As shown, the second aspect of this invention also provides a system for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species. This assessment and risk prediction system integrates a high-performance computing architecture and a data storage module, including a non-volatile memory consisting of a DDR4 RDIMM memory module with ECC verification and an NVMe solid-state storage array using 3D NAND flash memory, and a multi-core processor based on the Zen4 microarchitecture. The memory contains a program for assessing and predicting risks with an assessment engine. When this program is executed in parallel through a superscalar pipeline execution unit within the processor, the following steps are achieved: A biological characteristic information survey and analysis was conducted on the target alien mangrove species, and the analysis results were integrated to generate a database; A multi-dimensional evaluation index system was constructed for the target alien mangrove species, and a scoring process was performed on the target alien mangrove species. Based on the scoring values ​​of different comprehensive impact indicators of the target alien mangrove species, the ecological impact index of the target alien mangrove species is calculated and the risk is initially assessed. A risk evolution assessment model for the target alien mangrove species is constructed to assess the risk of the target alien mangrove species at different time periods and output management solutions for the risk.

[0030] The above are merely specific embodiments of the present invention, but the scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any variations or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the technical scope disclosed in the present invention should be included within the scope of protection of the present invention. Therefore, the scope of protection of the present invention should be determined by the scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: A biological characteristic information survey and analysis was conducted on the target alien mangrove species, and the analysis results were integrated to generate a database; A multi-dimensional evaluation index system was constructed for the target alien mangrove species, and a scoring process was performed on the target alien mangrove species. Based on the scoring values ​​of different comprehensive impact indicators of the target alien mangrove species, the ecological impact index of the target alien mangrove species is calculated and the risk is initially assessed. Construct a risk evolution assessment model for the target alien mangrove species, assess the risk of the target alien mangrove species at different time periods, and output management solutions for the risk; Specifically, the construction of a risk evolution assessment model for the target invasive mangrove species, which assesses the risk of the target invasive mangrove species at different time periods and outputs a risk management plan, involves: Within a big data network database, emissions management policies and climate trend changes within a predetermined risk evolution period are retrieved, wherein the predetermined risk evolution period is the set time for risk evolution assessment of the target alien mangrove species. Based on emission management policies and climate trend changes within a predetermined risk evolution period, different risk evolution period development scenarios are generated. The risk evolution period development scenario refers to the growth environment of the target alien mangrove species under different emission management policies and climate trend changes within the risk evolution period. A species distribution model and a cellular automaton model are constructed and coupled. The species distribution model is constructed by fitting the distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, the tidal channel water system map and the digital elevation model at the target coordinates. The cellular automaton model is a model that simulates the diffusion process of the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates based on the distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, the tidal channel water system map and the digital elevation model at the target coordinates. The coupled species distribution model and cellular automata model are labeled as coupled prediction models. Different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios are imported into the coupled prediction models. At the same time, the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species is also imported into the coupled prediction models. Running the coupled prediction model, based on the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species, outputs a risk level distribution prediction map under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios; By combining risk level distribution prediction maps under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios, a risk management plan is constructed. Specifically, the risk management plan is constructed by combining the risk level distribution prediction map under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios. The development scenarios of different risk evolution time periods are ranked sequentially, and the risk level distribution prediction maps under different risk evolution time periods are combined and analyzed based on the ranking results. Among them, the combined analysis is to construct a risk level distribution prediction trend map of the target alien mangrove species based on the risk level distribution prediction map under different risk evolution time periods and development scenarios. Analyze the risk level distribution prediction evolution trend map of the target alien mangrove species and determine the danger level. At the target coordinates, if the risk level of the ecological impact of the target alien mangrove species within the risk evolution time period is a danger level, then the corresponding risk evolution time period is marked as a danger time period. The dangerous time period is analyzed to determine the time distance between the dangerous time period and the current time. If the time distance is greater than the standard value, a risk management plan of type I is output; otherwise, a risk management plan of type II is output. One type of risk management plan involves immediately eradicating the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates and chemically disinfecting the soil and water sources at the target coordinates. The second type of risk management plan involves delineating a planting area for the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates, setting an ecological impact reassessment time, conducting an ecological impact reassessment and risk prediction for the target alien mangrove species, and simultaneously planting surrounding native tree species.

2. The method for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species according to claim 1, characterized in that, The process of investigating and analyzing the biological characteristics of the target invasive mangrove species, and then integrating the analysis results to generate a database, specifically involves: The species name of the introduced mangrove species is determined and designated as the target introduced mangrove species. At the same time, a big data network database is introduced, which records the reproductive characteristics and physiological adaptability of the target introduced mangrove species. The reproductive characteristics of the target alien mangrove species include annual yield, dispersal method, average survival time and average germination rate, and the physiological adaptability includes tolerance range to salinity, temperature, saline depth and duration, and soil pH. The reproductive characteristics and physiological adaptability of the target alien mangrove species are collectively referred to as the biological characteristics of the target alien mangrove species. The coordinates of the target alien mangrove species for ecological impact assessment and risk prediction are determined and marked as target coordinates. Aerial remote sensing images are acquired for the target coordinates. The aerial remote sensing images of the target coordinates are interpreted and drawn to create a distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, a tidal channel system map, and a digital elevation model at the target coordinates. Among them, other native tree species around the target coordinates are obtained and marked as the surrounding native tree species; Soil samples were collected at the target coordinates for chemical composition analysis. The chemical composition of the soil at the target coordinates was output. Combined with the distribution map of the target alien mangrove species, the tidal channel water system map, and the digital elevation model, and taking into account the biological characteristics of the target alien mangrove species, a dedicated database of the target alien mangrove species was constructed and labeled as the target database.

3. The method for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species according to claim 1, characterized in that, The construction of a multi-dimensional evaluation index system for the target invasive mangrove species, and the scoring process for the target invasive mangrove species, are specifically as follows: A comprehensive impact assessment index for the target alien mangrove species was developed. Based on this index, a questionnaire was constructed and distributed to relevant experts. The experts then scored the comprehensive impact assessment indexes for different target alien mangrove species to obtain the scores. We assign weights to the comprehensive impact indicators of different target alien mangrove species, and based on the weighting results, we assign weights and average scores to the scores of the comprehensive impact indicators of different target alien mangrove species, construct a multi-dimensional evaluation index system for target alien mangrove species, and label it as the target evaluation index system. Within the target coordinates, measure the tree height, diameter at breast height (DBH), and crown width of the target alien mangrove species and the surrounding native tree species, and calculate the competition index between the target alien mangrove species and the surrounding native tree species based on the measurement results. At the same time, count the actual number of the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates. Through the target evaluation index system, the competition index between the target alien mangrove species and the surrounding native tree species, the actual number of the target alien mangrove species at the target coordinates, and the target database are jointly analyzed to output the score values ​​of different comprehensive impact consideration indicators of the target alien mangrove species. Meanwhile, within the target assessment indicator system, different comprehensive impact consideration indicators are divided into positive and negative categories to obtain positive and negative indicators. The higher the score of the positive indicator, the higher the risk of the target alien mangrove species; conversely, the higher the score of the negative indicator, the higher the benefit of the target alien mangrove species.

4. The method for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species according to claim 1, characterized in that, The ecological impact index of the target alien mangrove species is calculated and a preliminary risk assessment is made by combining the scores of different comprehensive impact indicators. Specifically: The scoring values ​​of the indicators considering the different comprehensive impacts of the target alien mangrove species are divided into positive and negative indicators. Considering the weight allocation results of indicators based on the comprehensive impact of different target alien mangrove species, an indicator judgment matrix is ​​constructed. The indicator judgment matrix is ​​a matrix that comprehensively judges and outputs the total score of the target alien mangrove species based on the score values ​​of positive and negative indicators. Within the indicator judgment matrix, a comprehensive impact consideration indicator represents a feature vector, and the score value corresponds to the feature value. All feature vectors are normalized, and the consistency of all normalized feature vectors is checked to obtain the final combined weight of the ecological impact risk assessment of the target alien mangrove species. Based on the final combined weights of the ecological impact risk assessment of the target alien mangrove species, a linear weighted summation scoring model is constructed, and the scores of positive and negative indicators are imported into the linear weighted summation scoring model to output the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species. The total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species is converted into discrete risk levels, wherein the risk levels are divided according to the total ecological impact risk score of the target alien mangrove species.

5. A system for assessing and predicting the ecological impact of invasive mangrove species, characterized in that, The assessment and risk prediction integrates a high-performance computing architecture and a data storage module, including a non-volatile memory consisting of a DDR4 RDIMM memory module with ECC verification and an NVMe solid-state storage array using 3D NAND flash memory, and a multi-core processor based on the Zen4 microarchitecture; the memory is embedded with an assessment and risk prediction method program with an assessment engine, and when the program is executed in parallel through the superscalar pipeline execution unit in the processor, the assessment and risk prediction steps as described in any one of claims 1-4 are implemented.

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