Air conditioner load cluster regulation and control capability evaluation method based on multiple coupling factors

Abstract

The invention discloses an air conditioner load cluster regulation and control capability evaluation method based on multiple coupling factors, and particularly relates to the technical field of power system demand side management, and the method comprises the steps: building an equivalent thermal parameter model of a single air conditioner, and fitting a dynamic comfort boundary function and a random exit probability based on indoor and outdoor temperature difference and user historical data; performing pedigree clustering according to the building type, the thermal time constant, the operation mode rule and the equipment energy efficiency, and generating a typical virtual unit and aggregation parameters thereof; coupling weather forecast data, carrying out rolling calculation by adopting Monte Carlo simulation, dynamically correcting the regulation and control capacity, and generating a probability evaluation result containing an expected value and a confidence interval; and constructing a three-dimensional mapping matrix, and outputting the maximum safety regulation and control quantity under specified time and reliability requirements. According to the method, the problem of insufficient description of load isomerism and user operation randomness is solved, refined and probabilistic evaluation is realized, and reliable decision support is provided for power grid dispatching.

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