一种基于系统动力学的河口航道货运量预测方法

By delineating the boundaries of the estuary channel, cleaning the data, and conducting causal impact analysis, a system dynamics model was constructed, which solved the problem of inaccurate prediction caused by neglecting transportation demand in existing technologies, and achieved more accurate freight volume prediction.

CN122022026BActive Publication Date: 2026-07-17TRANSPORT PLANNING & RES INST MINIST OF TRANSPORT
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
TRANSPORT PLANNING & RES INST MINIST OF TRANSPORT
Filing Date
2026-01-20
Publication Date
2026-07-17

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Abstract

本申请提供了一种基于系统动力学的河口航道货运量预测方法，涉及水运货运量预测技术领域，方法包括：对目标河口航道划定边界数据，调取货运量历史数据进行数据清洗；基于多个历史货运量数据对河口航道进行因果影响分析，按照因果关系进行变量识别，绘制因果关系图；构建河口航道货运量预测模型；利用多个历史货运量数据对河口航道货运量预测模型进行验证，当验证通过，则通过河口航道货运量预测模型进行多场景仿真模拟，生成多场景河口航道货运量预测结果。通过本申请解决了现有技术中由于预测模型仅依赖历史数据时间序列规律，忽视了运输需求，导致货运量预测不准确的技术问题，通过多场景仿真模拟预测，提高了河口航道货运量预测的准确性。
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