Method, device, medium, electronic equipment and program product for evaluating feasibility of low-carbon regulation scheme
Patent Information
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Applications(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- CHINA ENERGY INVESTMENT CORP LTD
- Filing Date
- 2024-11-28
- Publication Date
- 2026-05-29
Smart Images
Figure CN122114335A_ABST
Abstract
Description
Technical Field
[0001] This disclosure relates to the field of low-carbon technology in the power industry, specifically to a feasibility assessment method, apparatus, medium, electronic equipment, and program product for a low-carbon regulation scheme. Background Technology
[0002] Feasibility assessments of a company's low-carbon adjustment plans not only help companies reduce carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency, but also ensure the scientific validity and effectiveness of the plans. Assessments can guide companies to avoid risks during transformation, promote technological innovation, enhance their market competitiveness, and contribute to achieving sustainable development goals.
[0003] In related technologies, feasibility assessments are conducted by analyzing and statistically analyzing historical energy data, without considering the impact of future market changes, resulting in inaccurate feasibility assessments of enterprises' low-carbon adjustment plans. Summary of the Invention
[0004] The purpose of this disclosure is to provide a method, apparatus, medium, electronic device, and program product for feasibility assessment of low-carbon regulation schemes to solve problems in related technologies.
[0005] To achieve the above objectives, this disclosure provides a feasibility assessment method for a low-carbon regulation scheme, the feasibility assessment method comprising: Based on historical production and operation data, determine the reference net present value corresponding to the reference scenario; The net present value (NPV) is determined for the first scenario driven by the driving strategy, the second scenario driven by the carbon market, the third scenario driven by the coal power market, and the fourth scenario driven by the new asset. The first risk value is obtained based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, and the fourth net present value; Adjustments were made according to the low-carbon adjustment plan, and the second risk value after adjustment was determined. The feasibility of the low-carbon adjustment scheme is assessed based on the first risk value and the second risk value.
[0006] Optionally, the feasibility assessment method further includes: Determine the fifth net present value corresponding to the driving scenarios of the carbon peaking action plan; The step of obtaining the first risk value based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, and the fourth net present value includes: The first risk value is obtained based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, the fourth net present value, and the fifth net present value.
[0007] Optionally, obtaining the first risk value based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, the fourth net present value, and the fifth net present value includes: The difference between the reference net present value and the first net present value is calculated to obtain the first net present value difference; The difference between the reference net present value and the second net present value is calculated to obtain the second net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the third net present value to obtain the third net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the fourth net present value to obtain the fourth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the fifth net present value to obtain the fifth net present value difference; A first risk value is obtained based on the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, the fourth net present value, the fifth net present value, and a preset ratio.
[0008] Optionally, determining the adjusted second risk value includes: The adjusted net present value (NPV) is determined for the sixth driving scenario, the seventh driving scenario, the eighth driving scenario, the ninth driving scenario, the ninth driving scenario, and the tenth driving scenario. The second risk value is obtained based on the reference net present value, the sixth net present value, the seventh net present value, the eighth net present value, the ninth net present value, and the tenth net present value.
[0009] Optionally, obtaining the second risk value based on the reference net present value, the sixth net present value, the seventh net present value, the eighth net present value, the ninth net present value, and the tenth net present value includes: Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the sixth net present value to obtain the sixth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the seventh net present value to obtain the seventh net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the eighth net present value to obtain the eighth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the ninth net present value to obtain the ninth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the tenth net present value to obtain the tenth net present value difference; The second risk value is obtained based on the sixth net present value, the seventh net present value, the eighth net present value, the ninth net present value, the tenth net present value, and the preset ratio.
[0010] Optionally, assessing the feasibility of the low-carbon adjustment scheme based on the first risk value and the second risk value includes: If the first risk value is greater than the second risk value, the low-carbon adjustment scheme is deemed feasible. If the first risk value is less than or equal to the second risk value, the low-carbon adjustment scheme is determined to be infeasible.
[0011] This disclosure also provides a feasibility assessment device for low-carbon regulation schemes, the feasibility assessment device comprising: The first processing module is configured to determine the reference net present value corresponding to the reference scenario based on historical production and operation data. The second processing module is configured to determine the first net present value corresponding to the driving strategy, the second net present value corresponding to the carbon market driving scenario, the third net present value corresponding to the coal power market driving scenario, and the fourth net present value corresponding to the new asset driving scenario. The third processing module is configured to obtain a first risk value based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, and the fourth net present value; The fourth processing module is configured to adjust according to the low-carbon adjustment scheme and determine the second risk value after adjustment; The fifth processing module is configured to evaluate the feasibility of the low-carbon adjustment scheme based on the first risk value and the second risk value.
[0012] This disclosure also provides a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the feasibility assessment method for any of the aforementioned low-carbon adjustment schemes.
[0013] This disclosure also provides an electronic device, including: A memory on which computer programs are stored; A processor for executing the computer program in the memory to implement the steps of the feasibility assessment method for any of the aforementioned low-carbon regulation schemes.
[0014] This disclosure also provides a computer program product, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the feasibility assessment method for any of the above-described low-carbon regulation schemes.
[0015] The above technical solution, based on historical production and operation data, determines the reference net present value (NPV) for the reference scenario; it also determines the first NPV under the influence of the driving strategy, the second NPV under the influence of the carbon market, the third NPV under the influence of the coal-fired power market, and the fourth NPV corresponding to the new asset driving scenario; based on the reference NPV, the first NPV, the second NPV, the third NPV, and the fourth NPV, it obtains the first risk value; it then adjusts according to the low-carbon adjustment plan and determines the adjusted second risk value; finally, it assesses the feasibility of the low-carbon adjustment plan based on the first and second risk values. By comprehensively considering historical production and operation data and future market changes, such as the impact of driving strategies, the carbon market, the coal-fired power market, and new assets, it calculates the NPV from multiple perspectives, assesses the risk value, and combines policy and market incentive and constraint mechanisms, providing a more comprehensive and accurate method for evaluating corporate low-carbon adjustment plans. This method helps enterprises avoid risks during transformation, promotes technological innovation, and enhances market competitiveness, thereby contributing to the achievement of sustainable development goals.
[0016] Other features and advantages of this disclosure will be described in detail in the following detailed description section. Attached Figure Description
[0017] The accompanying drawings are provided to further illustrate the present disclosure and form part of the specification. They are used together with the following detailed description to explain the present disclosure, but do not constitute a limitation thereof. In the drawings: Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating a feasibility assessment method for a low-carbon regulation scheme according to an exemplary embodiment.
[0018] Figure 2 This is a flowchart illustrating a feasibility assessment method for another low-carbon regulation scheme according to an exemplary embodiment.
[0019] Figure 3 This is a flowchart illustrating a sub-step of step S204 according to an exemplary embodiment.
[0020] Figure 4 This is a flowchart illustrating a sub-step of step S205 according to an exemplary embodiment.
[0021] Figure 5 This is a block diagram illustrating a feasibility assessment device for a low-carbon regulation scheme according to an exemplary embodiment.
[0022] Figure 6 This is a block diagram illustrating an electronic device according to an exemplary embodiment. Detailed Implementation
[0023] The specific embodiments of this disclosure will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are for illustration and explanation only and are not intended to limit this disclosure.
[0024] It should be noted that the concepts of "first" and "second" mentioned in this disclosure are used only to distinguish different devices, modules or units, and are not used to limit the order of functions performed by these devices, modules or units or their interdependencies.
[0025] Feasibility assessments of a company's low-carbon adjustment plans not only help companies reduce carbon emissions and improve energy efficiency, but also ensure the scientific validity and effectiveness of the plans. Assessments can guide companies to avoid risks during transformation, promote technological innovation, enhance their market competitiveness, and contribute to achieving sustainable development goals.
[0026] In related technologies, feasibility assessments are conducted by analyzing and statistically analyzing historical energy data, without considering the impact of future market changes, resulting in inaccurate feasibility assessments of enterprises' low-carbon adjustment plans.
[0027] To address the aforementioned issues, this method comprehensively considers historical production and operational data and future market changes, such as the impact of driving strategies, the carbon market, the coal-fired power market, and new asset development. It calculates net present value (NPV) from multiple perspectives, assesses risk values, and incorporates policy and market incentive and constraint mechanisms. This provides a more comprehensive and accurate method for evaluating corporate low-carbon adjustment plans. This approach helps companies avoid risks during transformation, promotes technological innovation, and enhances market competitiveness, thereby contributing to the achievement of sustainable development goals.
[0028] Figure 1 This is a feasibility assessment method for a low-carbon adjustment scheme according to an exemplary embodiment. This feasibility assessment method for a low-carbon adjustment scheme can be applied to electronic devices. Please refer to [link to relevant documentation]. Figure 1 The feasibility assessment method may include steps S1 to S5.
[0029] Step S1: Determine the reference net present value corresponding to the reference scenario based on historical production and operation data.
[0030] Historical production and operation data includes, but is not limited to, energy production data, main equipment operation data, overall power plant thermal efficiency, carbon emissions, power generation, calorific value, coal consumption, and other indicators of energy companies; it also includes financial data of energy companies, including cost and revenue indicators. Combined with publicly available data such as electricity and coal prices, this data is used to calculate the company's cash flow for various time periods.
[0031] The reference scenario assumes that the energy industry operates as is during the period between the risk assessment time point and the current operating time point, with all assessed industries being operating power plants. In this scenario, the proportion of various power asset types in each province will remain unchanged, and their generating capacity will be predicted monthly using historical data. For existing thermal power assets, no upgrades or renovations will be considered; units will be decommissioned normally, without early decommissioning or life extension. Carbon prices will remain consistent with the reference year, remaining unchanged between the tracking time point and the risk assessment time point. For the coal-fired power market, coal and electricity prices will also remain consistent with the reference year.
[0032] Reference net present value (NPV) is a financial metric used to measure the expected economic benefits of a project, investment, or policy initiative without any new measures or changes being implemented. NPV reflects the present value of all expected future cash flows (including costs and benefits) by discounting them to the present at a given discount rate.
[0033] Future cash flow will consider four asset classes: thermal power. Hydropower Wind power Photovoltaics The service life of various assets is as follows: ( ), each asset Service life is Each asset in the future The electricity and heat produced are respectively and .
[0034] (1) Cost and revenue analysis of thermal power assets The costs of existing thermal power assets mainly include four items: fixed costs, fuel costs, operation and maintenance costs, and carbon transition costs. Fixed costs ( This refers to expenses not directly related to electricity production, including depreciation costs. Financial costs ), labor costs ( 3 items.
[0035] fuel costs ( This includes the cost of various fuels used in the production of electricity.
[0036] Operation and maintenance costs ( This refers to expenses directly related to electricity production, including maintenance costs. ) and other operating costs ( ).
[0037] Carbon transition costs ( This refers to the costs incurred by thermal power plants in the dual-carbon transition, including carbon market costs. ), flexibility transformation cost ( ), carbon emission reduction project costs ( ) and 3 other items.
[0038] The revenue from existing thermal power assets mainly includes electricity sales revenue ( ) and heat sales revenue ( In addition, thermal power plants also have ancillary service revenue ( ) and capacity market revenue ( ).
[0039] (2) Cost and revenue analysis of wind, solar and hydropower assets Wind, solar and hydropower assets The costs mainly include depreciation expenses ( Financial expenses ), labor costs ( Maintenance costs ) and other expenses ( ).
[0040] Income from wind, solar and hydropower ( ) includes electricity sales revenue ( ) and potential government subsidies for new energy ( ).
[0041] In summary, power assets future time point Cost and income The calculation formulas are as follows: (1) (2) Power assets future time point cash flow The calculation formula is: (3) in, For power assets future time point Total revenue, For power assets future time point The total cost.
[0042] Any power asset of the enterprise The formula for calculating Net Present Value (NPV) is as follows: (4) All power assets of the enterprise The NPV calculation formula is as follows: (5) in: This refers to the current time point; This is the time point for risk assessment; The monthly discount rate can be taken as 0.64%.
[0043] Step S2: Determine the first net present value (NPV) corresponding to the driving strategy scenario, the second NPV corresponding to the carbon market scenario, the third NPV corresponding to the coal power market scenario, and the fourth NPV corresponding to the new asset driving scenario.
[0044] Driving strategies can be policy measures formulated by the government to promote economic growth, improve public services, or enhance social welfare. These strategies consider the impact of national and provincial energy policies on energy transition. For power system development, the future capacity and proportion of various energy sources are predicted based on provincial energy development plans and policies.
[0045] In a strategy-driven scenario, the first net present value (NPV) can be the expected and discounted future cash flows under the influence of specific policy or market drivers. For example, if an environmental policy requires companies to reduce pollution and adopt cleaner technologies, this may increase initial investment costs, but in the long run, it may reduce future operating costs and improve efficiency, thus affecting the NPV.
[0046] Determine the net present value corresponding to the driving strategy driving scenario to obtain the first net present value.
[0047] The development of the carbon market will impact the carbon market costs and revenues in asset risk assessments; therefore, carbon market assumptions will be added to the reference scenario. The carbon market scenarios will consider a baseline scenario, a high-growth carbon market scenario, and a low-growth carbon market scenario.
[0048] Carbon markets price carbon emissions, requiring companies to pay for their greenhouse gas emissions. This market mechanism impacts corporate finances, particularly for high-emission companies. Under the influence of carbon markets, a second net present value (NPV) can refer to the NPV after accounting for the costs of carbon emissions. If increased carbon emission costs lead to a decrease in future cash flows, the NPV will decrease. Carbon markets incentivize companies to reduce emissions through allowance allocation and trading mechanisms, which can influence their investment decisions and the economic viability of projects.
[0049] Determine the net present value corresponding to the carbon market-driven scenario to obtain the second net present value.
[0050] The development of the coal-fired power market will impact fuel costs and electricity sales revenue in asset risk assessments; therefore, coal-fired power market assumptions will be added to the reference scenario. In the coal-fired power market scenario, we will consider the baseline scenario, the high coal price scenario, the low coal price scenario, the high electricity price scenario, and the low electricity price scenario.
[0051] Changes in the coal-fired power market, such as fluctuations in electricity prices, policy adjustments, and supply and demand dynamics, all impact the economic benefits of coal-fired power. Thirdly, net present value (NPV) can be considered the expected and discounted future cash flows under specific conditions in the coal-fired power market. For example, if a market-based pricing mechanism for coal-fired power leads to higher electricity prices, the revenue of coal-fired power projects may increase, thereby improving the NPV. On the other hand, if policies favor renewable energy and reduce reliance on coal-fired power, market demand for coal-fired power projects may decrease, affecting their NPV.
[0052] The net present value corresponding to the market-driven scenario for coal-fired power generation is determined, thus obtaining the third net present value.
[0053] Consider the energy company's future new asset development plans. Based on information such as the type, location, construction timeline, and capacity of the new assets, forecast their costs and revenues.
[0054] The net present value corresponding to the new asset-driven scenario is determined to obtain the fourth net present value.
[0055] Step S3: Based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, and the fourth net present value, obtain the first risk value.
[0056] The first risk value can be a composite value that takes into account the net present value (NPV) driven by the driving strategy, the net present value driven by the carbon market, the net present value driven by the coal power market, and the net present value driven by new assets.
[0057] Specifically, the net present value (NPV) for the driving strategy scenario can be obtained by referencing the NPV and the first NPV; the NPV for the carbon market scenario can be obtained by referencing the NPV and the second NPV; the NPV for the coal power market scenario can be obtained by referencing the NPV and the third NPV; and the NPV for the new asset scenario can be obtained by referencing the NPV and the fourth NPV.
[0058] Step S4: Adjust according to the low-carbon adjustment plan and determine the second risk value after adjustment.
[0059] Low-carbon adjustment schemes can include, but are not limited to, adjusting existing assets or adjusting the proportion of renewable energy assets.
[0060] After adjusting according to the low-carbon scheme, the second risk value is obtained by following the same steps as the first risk value. The second risk value can also be a composite of the net present value (NPV) driven by the driving strategy, the carbon market, the coal power market, and new asset development. The difference between the second and first risk values is that the first risk value is obtained before adjusting according to the low-carbon scheme, while the second risk value is obtained after adjusting according to the low-carbon scheme.
[0061] Step S5: Assess the feasibility of the low-carbon adjustment scheme based on the first risk value and the second risk value.
[0062] The first risk value and the second risk value are compared, and the feasibility of the low-carbon solution is evaluated based on the comparison results.
[0063] In one possible implementation, step S5 may include: If the first risk value is greater than the second risk value, the low-carbon adjustment scheme is deemed feasible. If the first risk value is less than or equal to the second risk value, the low-carbon adjustment scheme is determined to be infeasible.
[0064] By comprehensively considering historical production and operation data and future market changes, such as the impact of driving strategies, the carbon market, the coal-fired power market, and new assets, this method calculates net present value (NPV) and assesses risk values from multiple perspectives. Combined with policy and market incentive and constraint mechanisms, it provides a more comprehensive and accurate method for evaluating corporate low-carbon adjustment plans. This approach helps companies avoid risks during transformation, promotes technological innovation, and enhances market competitiveness, thereby contributing to the achievement of sustainable development goals.
[0065] Figure 2 This is an exemplary embodiment illustrating another feasibility assessment method for a low-carbon adjustment scheme, which can be applied to electronic devices. Please refer to [link to relevant documentation]. Figure 2 The feasibility assessment method may include steps S201 to S206.
[0066] Step S201: Determine the reference net present value corresponding to the reference scenario based on historical production and operation data.
[0067] Step S202: Determine the first net present value (NPV) corresponding to the driving strategy scenario, the second NPV corresponding to the carbon market scenario, the third NPV corresponding to the coal power market scenario, and the fourth NPV corresponding to the new asset driving scenario.
[0068] Step S203: Determine the fifth net present value corresponding to the driving scenario of the carbon peaking action plan.
[0069] In the scenario driven by the carbon peaking action plan, for the development of the power system, the capacity, proportion and available power generation of various energy sources in each province will be predicted based on the enterprise carbon peaking action plan; for the technical path of thermal power, various upgrading and transformation projects will be considered based on the specific content of the peaking action plan; and for the development of the carbon market and the coal power market, the situation will remain consistent with the reference scenario.
[0070] The net present value corresponding to the driving scenario of the carbon peaking action plan is determined, and the fifth net present value is obtained.
[0071] Step S204: Based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, the fourth net present value, and the fifth net present value, the first risk value is obtained.
[0072] The first risk value can be a composite value that takes into account the net present value (NPV) driven by the driving strategy, the net present value driven by the carbon market, the net present value driven by the coal power market, the net present value driven by new assets, and the net present value driven by the carbon peaking action plan.
[0073] Specifically, the net present value (NPV) for the driving strategy scenario can be obtained by referencing the NPV and the first NPV; the NPV for the carbon market scenario can be obtained by referencing the NPV and the second NPV; the NPV for the coal power market scenario can be obtained by referencing the NPV and the third NPV; the NPV for the new asset scenario can be obtained by referencing the NPV and the fourth NPV; and the NPV for the carbon peaking action plan scenario can be obtained by referencing the NPV and the fifth NPV.
[0074] Step S205: Adjust according to the low-carbon adjustment scheme and determine the second risk value after adjustment.
[0075] Low-carbon adjustment schemes can include, but are not limited to, adjusting existing assets or adjusting the proportion of renewable energy assets.
[0076] After adjusting according to the low-carbon plan, the second risk value is obtained by following the same steps as the first risk value. The second risk value can also be a composite of the net present value (NPV) driven by the following scenarios: the NPV driven by the driving strategy, the NPV driven by the carbon market, the NPV driven by the coal power market, the NPV driven by new asset development, and the NPV driven by the carbon peaking action plan. The difference between the second and first risk values is that the first risk value is obtained before adjusting according to the low-carbon plan, while the second risk value is obtained after adjusting according to the low-carbon plan.
[0077] Step S206: Assess the feasibility of the low-carbon adjustment scheme based on the first risk value and the second risk value.
[0078] The first risk value and the second risk value are compared, and the feasibility of the low-carbon solution is evaluated based on the comparison results.
[0079] For example, if the first risk value is greater than the second risk value, the low-carbon adjustment scheme is determined to be feasible; if the first risk value is less than or equal to the second risk value, the low-carbon adjustment scheme is determined to be infeasible.
[0080] By comprehensively considering historical production and operational data and future market changes, such as the impact of driving strategies, the carbon market, the coal-fired power market, new assets, and carbon peaking action plans, this method calculates net present value (NPV) and assesses risk values from multiple perspectives. Combined with policy and market incentive and constraint mechanisms, it provides a more comprehensive and accurate method for evaluating corporate low-carbon adjustment plans. This approach helps companies avoid risks during transformation, promote technological innovation, and enhance market competitiveness, thereby contributing to the achievement of sustainable development goals.
[0081] It should be noted that the detailed descriptions of steps S201 and S202 can be found in steps S1 and S2 respectively, and will not be repeated here in this embodiment.
[0082] In one possible implementation, please refer to Figure 3 Step S204 may include steps S241 to S246.
[0083] Step S241: Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the first net present value to obtain the first net present value difference.
[0084] Step S242: Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the second net present value to obtain the second net present value difference.
[0085] Step S243: Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the third net present value to obtain the third net present value difference.
[0086] Step S244: Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the fourth net present value to obtain the fourth net present value difference.
[0087] Step S245: Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the fifth net present value to obtain the fifth net present value difference.
[0088] Based on basic data and scenario design, we construct the RiskValue, or net present value difference, as a corporate climate transition risk indicator under the net present value method.
[0089] The NPV method is used to measure the asset risk of enterprise transformation under different development scenarios. The asset risk RiskValue resulting from changes in net cash flow under different scenarios during the expected stage is calculated as follows: (6) in For reference, net present value, This represents the net present value for other development scenarios (e.g., driving strategies, carbon markets, coal-fired power markets, new assets, carbon peaking action plans).
[0090] The first net present value can be the net present value corresponding to the driving strategy driving scenario.
[0091] The second net present value can be the net present value corresponding to the carbon market-driven scenario.
[0092] The third net present value can be the net present value corresponding to the coal-fired power market-driven scenario.
[0093] The fourth net present value can be the net present value corresponding to the new asset-driven scenario.
[0094] The fifth net present value can be the net present value corresponding to the carbon peaking action plan-driven scenario.
[0095] Step S246: Based on the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, the fourth net present value, the fifth net present value, and the preset ratio, the first risk value is obtained.
[0096] The preset ratio can be the ratio of net present value (NPV) under user-defined driving strategies, carbon market-driven scenarios, coal-fired power market-driven scenarios, new asset-driven scenarios, and carbon peaking action plan-driven scenarios. For example, the preset ratio can be 1:1:1:1:1. In other embodiments, the preset ratio can also be adjusted according to actual conditions; this embodiment does not impose such limitations.
[0097] The first risk value is obtained by multiplying the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth net present value (NPVs) by their corresponding weights in the preset ratio, and then summing the results.
[0098] In one possible implementation, please refer to Figure 4 The step S205, which determines the adjusted second risk value, may include steps S251 and S252.
[0099] Step S251: Determine the sixth net present value (NPV) corresponding to the adjusted driving strategy, the seventh NPV corresponding to the adjusted carbon market, the eighth NPV corresponding to the adjusted coal power market, the ninth NPV corresponding to the adjusted new asset driving scenario, and the tenth NPV corresponding to the adjusted carbon peaking action plan driving scenario.
[0100] The sixth net present value is obtained by determining the net present value corresponding to the driving strategy after adjustment according to the low-carbon adjustment plan.
[0101] The seventh net present value is obtained by determining the net present value corresponding to the carbon market-driven scenario after adjustment according to the low-carbon adjustment scheme.
[0102] The eighth net present value is obtained by determining the net present value corresponding to the market-driven scenario of coal-fired power generation after adjustment according to the low-carbon adjustment plan.
[0103] The net present value (NPV) corresponding to the newly built asset-driven scenario after adjustment according to the low-carbon adjustment plan is determined, resulting in the ninth NPV.
[0104] The tenth net present value is obtained by determining the net present value corresponding to the carbon peaking action plan driven by the low-carbon adjustment scheme.
[0105] Step S252: Based on the reference net present value, the sixth net present value, the seventh net present value, the eighth net present value, the ninth net present value, and the tenth net present value, the second risk value is obtained.
[0106] The second risk value can also be the combined value of the net present value (NPV) under the adjusted driving strategy scenario, the adjusted NPV under the adjusted carbon market scenario, the adjusted NPV under the adjusted coal power market scenario, the adjusted NPV under the adjusted new asset scenario, and the adjusted NPV under the adjusted carbon peaking action plan scenario.
[0107] Specifically, the net present value (NPV) corresponding to the adjusted driving strategy scenario can be obtained through the reference NPV and the sixth NPV; the NPV corresponding to the adjusted carbon market scenario can be obtained through the reference NPV and the seventh NPV; the NPV corresponding to the adjusted coal power market scenario can be obtained through the reference NPV and the eighth NPV; the NPV corresponding to the adjusted new asset driving scenario can be obtained through the reference NPV and the ninth NPV; and the NPV corresponding to the adjusted carbon peaking action plan scenario can be obtained through the reference NPV and the tenth NPV.
[0108] In one possible implementation, step S252 may include: Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the sixth net present value to obtain the sixth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the seventh net present value to obtain the seventh net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the eighth net present value to obtain the eighth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the ninth net present value to obtain the ninth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the tenth net present value to obtain the tenth net present value difference; The second risk value is obtained based on the sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, and tenth net present value and a preset ratio.
[0109] The sixth net present value can be the net present value corresponding to the adjusted driving strategy driving scenario.
[0110] The seventh net present value can be the net present value corresponding to the adjusted carbon market-driven scenario.
[0111] The eighth net present value can be the net present value corresponding to the adjusted coal-fired power market-driven scenario.
[0112] The ninth net present value can be the net present value corresponding to the adjusted new asset-driven scenario.
[0113] The tenth net present value can be the net present value corresponding to the adjusted carbon peaking action plan driving scenario.
[0114] The preset ratio can be the ratio of net present value (NPV) under user-defined driving strategies, carbon market-driven scenarios, coal-fired power market-driven scenarios, new asset-driven scenarios, and carbon peaking action plan-driven scenarios. For example, the preset ratio can be 1:1:1:1:1. In other embodiments, the preset ratio can also be adjusted according to actual conditions; this embodiment does not impose such limitations.
[0115] The second risk value is obtained by multiplying the sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, and tenth net present value (NPV) values by their corresponding weights in the preset ratio, and then summing the results.
[0116] Based on the same inventive concept, and to implement the above-mentioned feasibility assessment method for low-carbon regulation schemes, this embodiment also provides a feasibility assessment device for low-carbon regulation schemes, such as... Figure 5 As shown, the feasibility assessment device 600 for this low-carbon regulation scheme may include: The first processing module 601 is configured to determine the reference net present value corresponding to the reference scenario based on historical production and operation data. The second processing module 602 is configured to determine the first net present value corresponding to the driving strategy driving scenario, the second net present value corresponding to the carbon market driving scenario, the third net present value corresponding to the coal power market driving scenario, and the fourth net present value corresponding to the new asset driving scenario. The third processing module 603 is configured to obtain a first risk value based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, and the fourth net present value; The fourth processing module 604 is configured to adjust according to the low-carbon adjustment scheme and determine the second risk value after adjustment; The fifth processing module 605 is configured to assess the feasibility of low-carbon adjustment schemes based on a first risk value and a second risk value.
[0117] Optionally, the feasibility assessment device may also include: The sixth processing module is configured to determine the fifth net present value corresponding to the driving scenario of the carbon peaking action plan; The third processing module 603 is configured as follows: The first risk value is obtained based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, the fourth net present value, and the fifth net present value.
[0118] Optionally, the third processing module 603 is specifically configured as follows: Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the first net present value to obtain the first net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the second net present value to obtain the second net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the third net present value to obtain the third net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the fourth net present value to obtain the fourth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the fifth net present value to obtain the fifth net present value difference; The first risk value is obtained based on the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, the fourth net present value, the fifth net present value, and a preset ratio.
[0119] Optionally, the fourth processing module 604 includes: The first sub-processing module is configured to determine the sixth net present value corresponding to the adjusted driving strategy driving scenario, the seventh net present value corresponding to the adjusted carbon market driving scenario, the eighth net present value corresponding to the adjusted coal power market driving scenario, the ninth net present value corresponding to the adjusted new asset driving scenario, and the tenth net present value corresponding to the adjusted carbon peaking action plan driving scenario. The second sub-processing module is configured to obtain the second risk value based on the reference net present value, the sixth net present value, the seventh net present value, the eighth net present value, the ninth net present value, and the tenth net present value.
[0120] Optionally, the second sub-processing module is specifically configured as follows: Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the sixth net present value to obtain the sixth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the seventh net present value to obtain the seventh net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the eighth net present value to obtain the eighth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the ninth net present value to obtain the ninth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the tenth net present value to obtain the tenth net present value difference; The second risk value is obtained based on the sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth, and tenth net present value and a preset ratio.
[0121] The fifth processing module 605 is specifically configured as follows: If the first risk value is greater than the second risk value, the low-carbon adjustment scheme is deemed feasible. If the first risk value is less than or equal to the second risk value, the low-carbon adjustment scheme is determined to be infeasible.
[0122] Regarding the feasibility assessment device for the low-carbon adjustment scheme in the above embodiments, the specific methods by which each module performs its operation have been described in detail in the embodiments concerning the feasibility assessment method for the low-carbon adjustment scheme, and will not be elaborated here.
[0123] Figure 6 This is a block diagram illustrating an electronic device 700 according to an exemplary embodiment. Figure 6 As shown, the electronic device 700 may include a processor 701 and a memory 702. The electronic device 700 may also include one or more of a multimedia component 703, an input / output (I / O) interface 704, and a communication component 705.
[0124] The processor 701 controls the overall operation of the electronic device 700 to complete all or part of the steps in the feasibility assessment method for the aforementioned low-carbon adjustment scheme. The memory 702 stores various types of data to support the operation of the electronic device 700. This data may include, for example, instructions for any application or method operating on the electronic device 700, and application-related data such as contact data, sent and received messages, pictures, audio, video, etc. The memory 702 can be implemented by any type of volatile or non-volatile storage device or a combination thereof, such as Static Random Access Memory (SRAM), Electrically Erasable Programmable Read-Only Memory (EEPROM), Erasable Programmable Read-Only Memory (EPROM), Programmable Read-Only Memory (PROM), Read-Only Memory (ROM), magnetic storage, flash memory, magnetic disk, or optical disk. Multimedia component 703 may include a screen and an audio component. The screen may be, for example, a touchscreen, and the audio component is used to output and / or input audio signals. For example, the audio component may include a microphone for receiving external audio signals. The received audio signals may be further stored in memory 702 or transmitted via communication component 705. The audio component also includes at least one speaker for outputting audio signals. I / O interface 704 provides an interface between processor 701 and other interface modules, such as a keyboard, mouse, buttons, etc. These buttons may be virtual or physical buttons. Communication component 705 is used for wired or wireless communication between the electronic device 700 and other devices. Wireless communication, such as Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Near Field Communication (NFC), 2G, 3G, 4G, NB-IoT, eMTC, or other 5G technologies, or combinations thereof, is not limited here. Therefore, the corresponding communication component 705 may include: a Wi-Fi module, a Bluetooth module, an NFC module, etc.
[0125] In an exemplary embodiment, the electronic device 700 may be implemented by one or more application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), digital signal processors (DSPs), digital signal processing devices (DSPDs), programmable logic devices (PLDs), field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs), controllers, microcontrollers, microprocessors, or other electronic components to perform the feasibility assessment method for the aforementioned low-carbon regulation scheme.
[0126] In another exemplary embodiment, a computer-readable storage medium including program instructions is also provided. When executed by a processor, these program instructions implement the steps of the feasibility assessment method for the low-carbon adjustment scheme described above. For example, the computer-readable storage medium may be the memory 702 including program instructions described above, which may be executed by the processor 701 of the electronic device 700 to complete the feasibility assessment method for the low-carbon adjustment scheme described above.
[0127] In another exemplary embodiment, a computer program product is also provided, the computer program product comprising a computer program executable by a programmable device, the computer program having a code portion for performing the feasibility assessment method of the low-carbon regulation scheme described above when executed by the programmable device.
[0128] The preferred embodiments of this disclosure have been described in detail above with reference to the accompanying drawings. However, this disclosure is not limited to the specific details of the above embodiments. Within the scope of the technical concept of this disclosure, various simple modifications can be made to the technical solutions of this disclosure, and these simple modifications all fall within the protection scope of this disclosure.
[0129] It should also be noted that the various specific technical features described in the above embodiments can be combined in any suitable manner without contradiction. To avoid unnecessary repetition, this disclosure will not describe the various possible combinations separately.
[0130] Furthermore, various different embodiments of this disclosure can be combined in any way, as long as they do not violate the spirit of this disclosure, they should also be regarded as the content disclosed in this disclosure.
Claims
1. A feasibility assessment method for a low-carbon regulation scheme, characterized in that, The feasibility assessment methods include: Based on historical production and operation data, determine the reference net present value corresponding to the reference scenario; The net present value (NPV) is determined for the first scenario driven by the driving strategy, the second scenario driven by the carbon market, the third scenario driven by the coal power market, and the fourth scenario driven by the new asset. The first risk value is obtained based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, and the fourth net present value; Adjustments were made according to the low-carbon adjustment plan, and the second risk value after adjustment was determined. The feasibility of the low-carbon adjustment scheme is assessed based on the first risk value and the second risk value.
2. The feasibility assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The feasibility assessment method also includes: Determine the fifth net present value corresponding to the driving scenarios of the carbon peaking action plan; The step of obtaining the first risk value based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, and the fourth net present value includes: The first risk value is obtained based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, the fourth net present value, and the fifth net present value.
3. The feasibility assessment method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The step of obtaining the first risk value based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, the fourth net present value, and the fifth net present value includes: The difference between the reference net present value and the first net present value is calculated to obtain the first net present value difference; The difference between the reference net present value and the second net present value is calculated to obtain the second net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the third net present value to obtain the third net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the fourth net present value to obtain the fourth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the fifth net present value to obtain the fifth net present value difference; A first risk value is obtained based on the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, the fourth net present value, the fifth net present value, and a preset ratio.
4. The feasibility assessment method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The determination of the adjusted second risk value includes: The adjusted net present value (NPV) is determined for the sixth driving scenario, the seventh driving scenario, the eighth driving scenario, the ninth driving scenario, the ninth driving scenario, and the tenth driving scenario. The second risk value is obtained based on the reference net present value, the sixth net present value, the seventh net present value, the eighth net present value, the ninth net present value, and the tenth net present value.
5. The feasibility assessment method according to claim 4, characterized in that, The process of obtaining the second risk value based on the reference net present value, the sixth net present value, the seventh net present value, the eighth net present value, the ninth net present value, and the tenth net present value includes: Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the sixth net present value to obtain the sixth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the seventh net present value to obtain the seventh net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the eighth net present value to obtain the eighth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the ninth net present value to obtain the ninth net present value difference; Calculate the difference between the reference net present value and the tenth net present value to obtain the tenth net present value difference; The second risk value is obtained based on the sixth net present value, the seventh net present value, the eighth net present value, the ninth net present value, the tenth net present value, and the preset ratio.
6. The feasibility assessment method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of assessing the feasibility of the low-carbon adjustment scheme based on the first risk value and the second risk value includes: If the first risk value is greater than the second risk value, the low-carbon adjustment scheme is deemed feasible. If the first risk value is less than or equal to the second risk value, the low-carbon adjustment scheme is determined to be infeasible.
7. A feasibility assessment device for a low-carbon regulation scheme, characterized in that, The feasibility assessment device includes: The first processing module is configured to determine the reference net present value corresponding to the reference scenario based on historical production and operation data. The second processing module is configured to determine the first net present value corresponding to the driving strategy, the second net present value corresponding to the carbon market driving scenario, the third net present value corresponding to the coal power market driving scenario, and the fourth net present value corresponding to the new asset driving scenario. The third processing module is configured to obtain a first risk value based on the reference net present value, the first net present value, the second net present value, the third net present value, and the fourth net present value; The fourth processing module is configured to adjust according to the low-carbon adjustment scheme and determine the second risk value after adjustment; The fifth processing module is configured to evaluate the feasibility of the low-carbon adjustment scheme based on the first risk value and the second risk value.
8. A non-transitory computer-readable storage medium having a computer program stored thereon, characterized in that, When executed by a processor, the computer program implements the steps of the feasibility assessment method for the low-carbon regulation scheme according to any one of claims 1-6.
9. An electronic device, characterized in that, include: A memory on which computer programs are stored; A processor for executing the computer program in the memory to implement the steps of the feasibility assessment method for the low-carbon regulation scheme according to any one of claims 1-6.
10. A computer program product, comprising a computer program, characterized in that, When executed by a processor, the computer program implements the steps of the feasibility assessment method for the low-carbon regulation scheme according to any one of claims 1-6.