A novel method and system for evaluating comprehensive benefits of energy storage projects

Abstract

The application discloses a novel energy storage project comprehensive benefit evaluation method and system, and belongs to the technical field of energy project evaluation. The method comprises the following steps: constructing a comprehensive benefit evaluation index system comprising four dimensions of economy, technology, society and environment; determining the weight of each level index by using a network analytic hierarchy process, and fully considering the correlation and feedback relationship between indexes; determining the membership degree of each index by using an expert scoring method, and forming a membership degree matrix; combining the weight and the membership degree matrix, and calculating the score and determining the evaluation grade by using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method; completing project comprehensive benefit analysis and outputting the evaluation result. The system comprises an index system construction module, a weight calculation module, a membership degree determination module, a comprehensive evaluation module and a result output module, and realizes automatic execution of the evaluation method.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of energy project evaluation technology, specifically to a novel method and system for evaluating the comprehensive benefits of energy storage projects. Background Technology

[0002] Guided by the "dual-carbon" strategy, new energy storage technologies have become key technologies for connecting renewable energy with the power grid and promoting the development of a low-carbon economy, leading to a period of rapid development in the construction and development of new energy storage projects. Conducting a scientific and comprehensive evaluation of the overall benefits of new energy storage projects is an important basis for project investment decisions, policy formulation, and industry upgrading.

[0003] Currently, existing technologies for evaluating the benefits of new energy storage projects mostly focus on single economic or environmental benefits, lacking a comprehensive evaluation system that takes into account multiple dimensions such as economy, technology, society, and environment. At the same time, the traditional Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) does not consider the interrelationships and feedback relationships between indicators, resulting in insufficient objectivity and accuracy of the evaluation results. In addition, some evaluation methods only use qualitative analysis or a single quantitative analysis, which is difficult to cope with the ambiguity and complexity of evaluating the benefits of new energy storage projects. As a result, the evaluation results cannot truly reflect the comprehensive value of the project and cannot provide effective decision support for project construction and industry development.

[0004] Therefore, there is an urgent need for a new comprehensive benefit evaluation method for energy storage projects that can take into account multi-dimensional benefits, consider the correlation between indicators, and combine qualitative and quantitative analysis, in order to solve the problems of incomplete evaluation system, unscientific evaluation method and inaccurate evaluation results in the existing technology. Summary of the Invention

[0005] The purpose of this invention is to provide a novel comprehensive benefit evaluation method and system for energy storage projects, which solves the problems of single-dimensional evaluation of the benefits of new energy storage projects, insufficient consideration of the correlation between indicators, and lack of scientific rigor in the existing technology, and realizes a multi-dimensional, comprehensive, objective, and accurate comprehensive benefit evaluation of new energy storage projects.

[0006] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention adopts the following technical solution:

[0007] A novel method for evaluating the comprehensive benefits of energy storage projects includes the following steps:

[0008] S1. Construct a comprehensive benefit evaluation index system for new energy storage projects. The index system includes four primary indicators: economic benefits, technical benefits, social benefits, and environmental benefits. Each primary indicator has several secondary indicators, and each secondary indicator corresponds to several tertiary indicators.

[0009] S2. The weights of each level of indicators in the evaluation index system are determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (ANP), including determining the dominance between indicators, constructing a judgment matrix, consistency testing, and weight calculation.

[0010] S3. Select new energy storage projects to be evaluated, determine the membership degree of each third-level indicator through expert scoring, and form a membership degree matrix.

[0011] S4. Combining the weights and membership matrices of each indicator, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the evaluation scores of each primary indicator and the overall benefits of the project, and the evaluation level is determined based on the preset scoring range.

[0012] S5. Based on the evaluation score and level, complete the comprehensive benefit analysis of the new energy storage project to be evaluated, and output the evaluation results.

[0013] Meanwhile, this invention also provides a novel comprehensive benefit evaluation system for energy storage projects, including an indicator system construction module, a weight calculation module, a membership degree determination module, a comprehensive evaluation module, and a result output module. The modules work together to automate the above evaluation methods.

[0014] Compared with the prior art, the present invention:

[0015] This invention constructs a new comprehensive benefit evaluation index system for energy storage projects that integrates economic, technological, social, and environmental dimensions. It covers the core benefit dimensions of the entire project life cycle, solves the problem of the single evaluation dimension in the existing system, and makes the evaluation system more comprehensive and systematic.

[0016] The weights of the indicators were determined by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (ANP), which fully considered the interrelationships and feedback relationships between the indicators. Compared with the traditional Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the weight calculation is more in line with the actual characteristics of new energy storage projects, and the results are more objective and accurate.

[0017] Combining fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method with benefit evaluation effectively addresses the fuzziness and uncertainty issues in the benefit evaluation of new energy storage projects, achieves an organic combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis, and improves the scientificity and reliability of the evaluation results.

[0018] It supports multi-project comparative evaluation, and can simultaneously conduct comprehensive benefit evaluation and comparison of multiple new energy storage projects of different scales and technologies, providing intuitive reference for project investment decisions and industry resource allocation;

[0019] The evaluation method and system are easy to operate. The indicator system and weights can be flexibly adjusted according to industry development, policy adjustments and project types. It has strong universality and adaptability and can be widely used in the comprehensive benefit evaluation of new energy storage projects of different types and scales.

[0020] The evaluation results of this invention can not only provide a score and grade for the overall benefits of the project, but also achieve a refined analysis of the benefits in each dimension, clarify the advantages and disadvantages of the project, and provide targeted decision support for the optimization and upgrading of new energy storage projects and policy formulation.

[0021] The combination of expert scoring and quantitative calculation not only incorporates the practical experience of industry experts, but also quantifies the evaluation process through mathematical models, avoiding the subjective bias of single qualitative analysis and improving the credibility of the evaluation results.

[0022] The system of this invention is equipped with a data storage module, which can realize the full-process storage and retrieval of evaluation data, provide data support for the benefit tracking of new energy storage projects and industry research, and promote the standardized and scientific development of the new energy storage industry. Attached Figure Description

[0023] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of the comprehensive benefit evaluation method for this novel energy storage project. Detailed Implementation

[0024] To make the objectives, technical solutions, and advantages of this invention clearer, the invention will be further described in detail below with reference to specific embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative and not intended to limit the invention.

[0025] Example 1

[0026] A novel method for evaluating the comprehensive benefits of energy storage projects, such as Figure 1 As shown, the specific steps are as follows:

[0027] Constructing an evaluation index system

[0028] An evaluation index system was constructed, comprising four primary indicators: economic benefits, technological benefits, social benefits, and environmental benefits. The selection of indicators followed the principles of comprehensiveness, systematicity, scientific rigor, operability, reliability, and a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. The final indicators were determined through two rounds of expert screening.

[0029] First round of screening: 15 experts were invited to conduct semi-structured interviews to merge indicators with overlapping meanings, replace unsuitable indicators, and optimize the indicator system structure. The basic information of the experts is shown in Table 1.

[0030] The second round of screening involved an expert questionnaire survey to assign importance scores to the adjusted indicators (1 point for very important, 5 points for very unimportant). The self-discharge rate indicator, with an average score of 3.07, was removed. The remaining indicators had average scores between 1.27 and 2.40, with coefficients of variation all below 0.43, indicating strong consensus among experts. This resulted in an evaluation system comprising 4 primary indicators, 10 secondary indicators, and 22 tertiary indicators, as detailed in Table 2.

[0031] Table 1 Basic Information of Experts

[0032]

[0033] Table 2 Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation Indicators for New Energy Storage Projects

[0034]

[0035] ANP method for determining index weights

[0036] (1) Number of influence relationships between statistical indicators: The number of secondary indicators affected by other secondary indicators is statistically analyzed based on expert feedback data, as shown in Table 3;

[0037] Table 3. Correlation of Secondary Indicators in the Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation of New Energy Storage Projects

[0038] Constructing a judgment matrix: For indicators with more than 1 influence, compare them pairwise and construct a judgment matrix using the 1-9 scale method. For example, the judgment matrix under the "financial viability (B3)" criterion is shown in Table 4.

[0039] Table 4, Judgment Matrix of Relevant Elements under "Financial Survival Capability Analysis B3"

[0040]

[0041] Consistency check: The CR values ​​of all judgment matrices are less than 0.1, thus passing the consistency check;

[0042] Determine the weights: The final weights of each level of indicators are obtained. The weights of the first-level indicators are: economic benefits 0.578, technical benefits 0.189, social benefits 0.108, and environmental benefits 0.125. The global weights of some third-level indicators are: power density 0.021 and energy density 0.012.

[0043] Determine the membership degree of the indicators

[0044] The large-scale electrochemical energy storage project C in G province was selected as the project to be evaluated. The above 15 experts were invited to score each of the three-level indicators according to the four evaluation levels of excellent, good, medium and poor. The membership degree was calculated and a membership degree matrix was formed. The membership degree of some indicators is shown in Table 5.

[0045] Table 5

[0046]

[0047] Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation calculation

[0048] (1) Calculation of secondary indicator scores: Taking technical benefits as an example, the technical benefit weight matrix W2 of project C is (0.021, 0.012, 0.031). After the membership matrix is ​​calculated, the technical benefit score is 85.82 points.

[0049] (2) Calculation of scores for primary indicators: Project C: economic benefits 87.67 points, technical benefits 85.82 points, social benefits 89.21 points, environmental benefits 90.34 points;

[0050] (3) Calculation of comprehensive benefit score: The comprehensive benefit score of project C is 87.09 points;

[0051] (4) Evaluation level determination: Based on the preset scoring range (Excellent [90,100), Good [80,90), Medium [70,80), Poor [0,70)), the environmental benefits of Project C are excellent, and the other dimensions and comprehensive benefits are good.

[0052] Benefit Analysis and Results Output

[0053] Based on the evaluation scores and grades, the overall benefits of Project C are analyzed: the project demonstrates outstanding environmental benefits, with significant achievements in new energy consumption and pollutant emission reduction; its economic benefits are at a good level, but its debt-to-asset ratio is relatively high; both its technological and social benefits are good, resulting in excellent overall comprehensive benefits. The output should include a comprehensive benefit evaluation report containing scores, grades, and analyses of strengths and weaknesses for each dimension.

[0054] Example 2

[0055] Project A of medium-scale lithium-ion battery technology in Province G was selected as the project to be evaluated. The same evaluation method as in Example 1 was adopted, and the specific steps are as follows:

[0056] The evaluation index system constructed using Example 1;

[0057] The weights of each level of indicators determined in Example 1 are retained;

[0058] Fifteen experts from the same group were invited to score each of the three-level indicators of Project A to determine the membership matrix. The membership degrees of some indicators are shown in Table 6.

[0059] Table 6. Membership Degree of Some Indicators for New Energy Storage Project A

[0060]

[0061] The scores were calculated using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method: Project A scored 84.95 points for economic benefits, 83.76 points for technical benefits, 85.68 points for social benefits, and 85.28 points for environmental benefits, with a comprehensive benefit score of 84.85 points. All dimensions and the comprehensive benefit were rated as good.

[0062] Multi-item comparative analysis: The evaluation results of project A and project C are compared, as shown in Table 7;

[0063] Table 7 Comparison of Evaluation Results for Projects A and C

[0064] Analysis shows that large-scale Project C has advantages in environmental benefits and economies of scale, while medium-scale Project A has greater potential in terms of technological innovation flexibility. The output is a comprehensive evaluation report containing comparative data from multiple projects.

[0065] Example 3

[0066] A novel comprehensive benefit evaluation system for energy storage projects, used to implement the evaluation methods of Examples 1 and 2, includes:

[0067] Indicator system construction module: It adopts a visual interface, with the complete indicator hierarchy and core indicator descriptions shown in Table 2. It supports adding, deleting, modifying and associating indicators. The indicator system can be adjusted according to project type (such as electrochemical energy storage, compressed air energy storage) and application scenario (power generation side, grid side, user side).

[0068] Weight calculation module: Built-in ANP algorithm model, including the indicator correlation table shown in Table 3 and the judgment matrix template shown in Table 4. It supports indicator dominance input, automatic construction of judgment matrix, consistency check and automatic weight calculation, output weight matrix and supports visualization display.

[0069] Membership Determination Module: Sets up an online interface for expert scoring, with built-in membership statistics templates shown in Tables 5 and 6, supports simultaneous scoring by 15 experts, automatically collects scoring data and calculates the membership degree of each third-level indicator, and generates a membership matrix.

[0070] Comprehensive evaluation module: It has a built-in fuzzy comprehensive evaluation algorithm model, which automatically calculates the evaluation scores of each indicator and the comprehensive benefits of the project by combining the weight matrix and the membership matrix. It has a built-in evaluation result statistical template shown in Table 7, supports automatic determination of evaluation level, and supports multi-project comparative evaluation to generate multi-project benefit comparison curves.

[0071] Results output module: Automatically generates a comprehensive benefit evaluation report that includes scores, grades, strengths and weaknesses analysis, supports export in PDF, Excel and other formats, and also supports the visualization of evaluation results (such as radar charts and bar charts).

[0072] Data storage module: Stores all data in the evaluation index system, expert information, scoring data, weight matrix, membership matrix, evaluation score, evaluation report, etc., and supports querying, exporting and updating historical data.

[0073] The system can be deployed on the server side, supports access from multiple terminals such as computers and tablets, is easy to operate, and can be widely used in the comprehensive benefit evaluation of new energy storage projects by energy investment companies, power design institutes, and energy management departments.

[0074] This invention presents a novel method and system for comprehensive benefit evaluation of energy storage projects. It constructs a comprehensive and systematic evaluation index system, combining the ANP method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to achieve scientific and objective benefit evaluation, thus solving the problems of single evaluation dimensions and unscientific methods in existing technologies. The evaluation method of this invention has clear operation steps, incorporates multiple sets of standard form templates, and the evaluation system achieves automated and intelligent evaluation. It can be widely applied to the comprehensive benefit evaluation of new energy storage projects in fields such as energy investment, power design, and energy policy formulation.

[0075] This invention can accurately quantify the economic, technological, social, and environmental benefits of new energy storage projects, providing important decision support for project investment decisions, optimization and upgrading, and policy formulation, and promoting the standardized and scientific development of the new energy storage industry. It has significant industrial applicability and promotional value.

[0076] The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto. Any equivalent substitutions or modifications made by those skilled in the art within the scope of the technology disclosed in the present invention, based on the technical solution and inventive concept of the present invention, should be covered within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A novel method for evaluating the comprehensive benefits of energy storage projects, characterized in that, Includes the following steps: S1. Construct a comprehensive benefit evaluation index system for new energy storage projects. The index system includes four primary indicators: economic benefits, technical benefits, social benefits, and environmental benefits. Each primary indicator has several secondary indicators, and each secondary indicator corresponds to several tertiary indicators. S2. The weights of each level of indicators in the evaluation index system are determined by the network hierarchical analysis method, including determining the dominance between indicators, constructing a judgment matrix, consistency test and weight calculation. S3. Select new energy storage projects to be evaluated, determine the membership degree of each third-level indicator through expert scoring, and form a membership degree matrix. S4. Combining the weights and membership matrices of each indicator, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the evaluation scores of each primary indicator and the overall benefits of the project, and the evaluation level is determined based on the preset scoring range. S5. Based on the evaluation score and level, complete the comprehensive benefit analysis of the new energy storage project to be evaluated, and output the evaluation results.

2. The comprehensive benefit evaluation method for novel energy storage projects according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S1, the primary indicator of economic benefits includes four secondary indicators: profitability, debt repayment ability, financial viability, and sensitivity; the primary indicator of technical benefits includes two secondary indicators: operational efficiency and safety; the primary indicator of social benefits includes two secondary indicators: impact on the socio-economic situation and impact on local residents; and the primary indicator of environmental benefits includes two secondary indicators: protecting the ecological environment and improving the energy structure.

3. The comprehensive benefit evaluation method for novel energy storage projects according to claim 2, characterized in that, The profitability secondary indicator corresponds to the net present value, internal rate of return, investment payback period, and total investment return rate tertiary indicators; the operational efficiency secondary indicator corresponds to the power density and energy density tertiary indicators; the impact on local residents secondary indicator corresponds to the improvement of residents' quality of life and the enhancement of residents' environmental awareness tertiary indicators; and the ecological environment protection secondary indicator corresponds to the reduction of pollutant emissions and the saving of environmental governance costs tertiary indicators.

4. The comprehensive benefit evaluation method for novel energy storage projects according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S2, determining the degree of advantage between indicators specifically involves: inviting technical, operational, investment, and policy experts in the field of new energy storage to conduct pairwise comparisons of indicators at each level, determining the relative importance and correlation between indicators, counting the number of each indicator as an influencing factor, and conducting key comparative analysis on indicators with a number greater than 1.

5. The comprehensive benefit evaluation method for novel energy storage projects according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S2, after constructing the judgment matrix, the relative weights of the indicators are determined using the 1-9 scaling method. The consistency test is verified by whether the consistency ratio CR of the judgment matrix is ​​less than 0.

1. If CR ≥ 0.1, the judgment matrix is ​​readjusted until the consistency requirements are met.

6. The comprehensive benefit evaluation method for novel energy storage projects according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S3, the scoring experts of the expert scoring method include professionals in the fields of new energy storage project operation and management, technology research and development, power science research, energy investment, and policy formulation, and there are no less than 2 experts in each field. After scoring, the degree of membership of each third-level indicator to the four evaluation levels of excellent, good, medium and poor is determined by statistical method.

7. The comprehensive benefit evaluation method for novel energy storage projects according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S4, the preset scoring range is: Excellent [90,100), Good [80,90), Average [70,80), Poor [0,70). The corresponding evaluation level of each primary indicator and comprehensive benefit score is determined based on this range.

8. The comprehensive benefit evaluation method for novel energy storage projects according to claim 1, characterized in that, In step S4, the calculation process of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is as follows: first, the evaluation score of the second-level indicator is calculated using the weights of the third-level indicators and the membership matrix; then, the evaluation score of the first-level indicator is calculated using the weights of the second-level indicators and the evaluation score of the second-level indicators; and finally, the evaluation score of the project's comprehensive benefits is calculated using the weights of the first-level indicators and the evaluation score of the first-level indicators.

9. A novel comprehensive benefit evaluation system for energy storage projects, characterized in that, include: The indicator system construction module is used to construct a comprehensive benefit evaluation indicator system for new energy storage projects as described in any one of claims 1-2, and supports the addition, deletion, modification and hierarchical association of indicators; The weight calculation module, based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), performs dominance analysis, judgment matrix construction, consistency check, and weight calculation for each level of indicators, and outputs a weight matrix. The membership determination module obtains expert scoring data through the expert scoring interface, and calculates and outputs the membership matrix for each third-level indicator. The comprehensive evaluation module combines the weight matrix and membership matrix, and uses the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the evaluation scores of each indicator and the overall benefits of the project, and determines the evaluation level. The results output module is used to display the evaluation score and evaluation level, and generate a comprehensive benefit evaluation report for the new energy storage project that includes benefit analysis of various dimensions.

10. The novel energy storage project comprehensive benefit evaluation system according to claim 9, characterized in that, It also includes a data storage module for storing the evaluation index system, expert information, expert scoring data, index weights, membership matrix, evaluation scores and evaluation reports, and supports the querying, exporting and updating of historical data; the comprehensive evaluation module also supports multi-project comparative evaluation, and can simultaneously import relevant data of multiple projects to be evaluated and output multi-project benefit comparison results.

Images