多模型多边界河口盐水入侵集合概率预报方法及系统
By constructing an ensemble forecasting system using a multi-model, multi-boundary approach, the problem that existing saltwater intrusion forecasting methods cannot provide probabilistic information is solved, enabling probabilistic prediction of saltwater intrusion processes and improving the reliability of forecast results and risk identification capabilities.
Patent Information
- Authority / Receiving Office
- CN · China
- Patent Type
- Patents(China)
- Current Assignee / Owner
- EAST CHINA NORMAL UNIV
- Filing Date
- 2026-05-07
- Publication Date
- 2026-07-17
AI Technical Summary
Existing saltwater intrusion forecasting methods are based on a single numerical model and deterministic initial boundary conditions, which makes it difficult to reflect the coupling effect of multiple dynamic factors and provide probabilistic information on saltwater intrusion. This limits the application of forecast results in risk assessment and engineering scheduling.
A multi-model, multi-boundary approach is adopted to construct an ensemble forecasting system by coupling multiple calibrated and validated numerical models with various runoff and wind field boundary conditions. This system generates saltwater intrusion evolution results under multiple forecast scenarios, calculates the comprehensive confidence probability based on historical simulation accuracy, constructs a joint probability distribution table, and outputs the probabilistic forecast results of saltwater intrusion.
This enables probabilistic prediction of saltwater intrusion processes, improves the reliability and completeness of forecast results, enhances the ability to identify risks of extreme events, and provides quantifiable technical support for estuarine water supply security and water resource management.
Smart Images
Figure CN122133569B_ABST