Server and thermal management system

Abstract

The present invention provides a server and a thermal management system. The server (20) has a demand forecasting unit (305), a condition forecasting unit (310), an estimation unit (315), and an instruction unit (320). The demand forecasting unit (305) outputs a heat demand forecast indicating the shift in heat demand within the facility (F). The condition forecasting unit (310) predicts, based on the heat demand forecast and specification information DB (228), whether the constraint conditions are met when the number of heat sources (110A to 110D) is controlled according to the first priority order predetermined as the start-up priority. If the constraint conditions are predicted not to be met, the estimation unit (315) estimates, based on the heat demand forecast and specification information DB (228), the second priority order as the start-up priority order to meet the constraint conditions. The instruction unit (320) instructs the control device (140) to change the start-up priority order from the first priority order to the second priority order.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This disclosure relates to servers and thermal management systems. Background Technology

[0002] Japanese Patent Application Publication No. 2021-110487 discloses an air conditioning system. This air conditioning system includes multiple heat sources and a heat source controller. The heat source controller is a general-purpose control device that controls multiple heat sources. The heat source controller executes control over the number of heat sources according to a predetermined start-up priority to meet specified constraints.

[0003] The control of the number of heat sources based on their start-up priority is widely implemented. Such control may be necessary from a system design and cost perspective. Essentially, such a control device performs the control based on various sensor values ​​and setpoints installed within the facility to meet the heat demand of the facility with multiple heat sources. In this case, even if the heat demand is met, the constraints may not be satisfied, depending on the shifting heat demand within the facility. Summary of the Invention

[0004] This disclosure was made to solve the aforementioned problems, and its purpose is to provide a server and thermal management system for appropriately satisfying both heat demand and constraints when controlling the number of multiple heat sources according to their start-up priority.

[0005] The server disclosed herein communicates with a control device. The control device performs unit number control, which controls the number of operating heat sources among the multiple heat sources installed in the facility, according to the start-up priority of multiple heat sources. The server has a demand forecasting unit, a storage unit, a condition forecasting unit, an estimation unit, and an instruction unit. The demand forecasting unit outputs a heat demand forecast indicating the shift in heat demand within the facility during the target period. The storage unit stores information indicating specified constraints related to the multiple heat sources during the target period and specification information indicating the specifications of each of the multiple heat sources. The condition forecasting unit, based on the heat demand forecast and specification information, predicts whether the constraints are met when unit number control is performed according to the first priority, which is predetermined as the start-up priority. If the estimation unit predicts that the constraints are not met, it estimates a second priority, based on the heat demand forecast and specification information, as the start-up priority that satisfies the constraints in unit number control. The instruction unit instructs the control device to change the start-up priority from the first priority to the second priority.

[0006] The thermal management system disclosed herein includes a control unit, a demand forecasting unit, a storage unit, a condition forecasting unit, an estimation unit, and an instruction unit. The control unit performs unit number control, which controls the number of operating heat sources among the multiple heat sources installed in the facility, according to the startup priority of multiple heat sources. The demand forecasting unit outputs a heat demand forecast indicating the shift in heat demand within the facility during the target period. The storage unit stores information indicating specified constraints during the target period and specification information indicating the specifications of each of the multiple heat sources. The condition forecasting unit, based on the heat demand forecast and specification information, predicts whether the constraints will be met if unit number control is performed according to the first priority predetermined as the startup priority. If the prediction indicates that the constraints will not be met, the estimation unit estimates a second priority as the startup priority that would satisfy the constraints in the unit number control, based on the heat demand forecast and specification information. The instruction unit instructs the control unit to change the startup priority from the first priority to the second priority.

[0007] The above and other objects, features, aspects and advantages of the present invention will become clear from the following detailed description in relation to the invention, which is understood in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. Attached Figure Description

[0008] Figure 1 This is a diagram showing the overall structure of the thermal management system in Embodiment 1.

[0009] Figure 2 It is a diagram used to illustrate the data structure of the specification information DB (Database).

[0010] Figure 3 This is a diagram illustrating an example of how a control device controls the number of heat source units in a heat source group.

[0011] Figure 4 This is a functional block diagram of the server in Implementation Method 1.

[0012] Figure 5 This is a graph showing the combination of ni heat sources operating in each period and the total remaining heat under the startup priority of the heat source group for each mode.

[0013] Figure 6 This is a diagram used to illustrate the advantages of implementation method 1.

[0014] Figure 7 This is a flowchart illustrating an example of the process performed in Implementation 1.

[0015] Figure 8 This is a graph showing the number of heat sources operating in each period and the total operating cost under the startup priority for each mode, based on startup priority.

[0016] Figure 9 This is a diagram used to illustrate the advantages of variation 1 of embodiment 1.

[0017] Figure 10 This is a graph showing the number of heat sources operating during each period and the total discharge under the startup priority for each mode, based on the startup priority.

[0018] Figure 11 This is a diagram used to illustrate the advantages of variation 2 of embodiment 1.

[0019] Figure 12 This is a graph showing the number of heat sources operating in each period and the total power consumption under the startup priority of each mode, for each startup priority mode.

[0020] Figure 13 This is a graph showing the number of heat sources operating in each period and the total gas consumption under the startup priority of each of the 24 modes for startup priority.

[0021] Figure 14 This is a graph showing the number of heat sources operating in each period and the total heat usage under the startup priority for each of the 24 modes with startup priority.

[0022] Figure 15 This is a diagram showing the overall structure of the thermal management system based on Embodiment 2.

[0023] Figure 16 This is a functional block diagram of the server in implementation method 2.

[0024] Figure 17 This is a flowchart illustrating an example of the processing performed in Implementation 2.

[0025] Figure 18 This is a functional block diagram of the server in Variation 1 of Implementation Method 2.

[0026] Figure 19 This is a flowchart illustrating an example of the processing performed in a variation of Embodiment 2, Example 1.

[0027] Figure 20 This is a functional block diagram of the server in Variation 2 of Implementation Method 2.

[0028] Figure 21 This is a flowchart of an example of the processing performed in a variation of Implementation 2, Example 2. Detailed Implementation

[0029] The embodiments of this disclosure will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. Identical or equivalent parts in the drawings will be labeled with the same reference numerals and will not be described repeatedly. Embodiments and their variations may also be appropriately combined with each other.

[0030] [Implementation Method 1]

[0031] Figure 1 This is a diagram showing the overall structure of the thermal management system in Embodiment 1. (Refer to...) Figure 1 The thermal management system 1 includes an air conditioning system 10 and a server 20.

[0032] Air conditioning system 10 is a central air conditioning system installed in facility F (e.g., a building) for regulating the air within facility F. Air conditioning system 10 includes a heat source group 105, a sensor group 120, a storage device 130, and a control device 140.

[0033] Heat source assembly 105 includes heat source units 110A to 110D. Heat source units 110A to 110D each generate heat for regulating the air within facility F. The following description primarily focuses on an example where heat source units 110A to 110D generate warm heat; however, each heat source unit can also be configured to generate both cold and hot heat. The generated heat is supplied to an air conditioner (not shown) via a heat transfer medium such as water. Sensor assembly 120 measures the temperature of the air within facility F and the temperature of the heat transfer medium, etc. Heat source units 110A and 110B are electrical heat source units that operate by consuming electrical EL. The electrical EL is supplied to facility F from the equipment of an electricity supplier (e.g., a power company) via power line 32.

[0034] Heat source 110C is connected to a receiving device (not shown) that receives supply heat HT (specifically, a heat medium containing the supply heat HT) from heat transfer pipe 34a of a District Heating and Cooling (DHC) system. This receiving device is located in facility F. Heat source 110C is a DHC heat source that operates by supplying heat to facility F using the supply heat HT received by the receiving device. The supply heat HT is equivalent to the heat of the heat medium (in this example, supply water) supplied to heat source 110C via heat transfer pipe 34a. After the heat source 110C releases heat, the supply water enters heat transfer pipe 34b and returns to the DHC system as return water RW. The temperature of the return water RW is measured by a temperature sensor 35 located in heat transfer pipe 34b. The measured value mv from temperature sensor 35 is output to air conditioning system 10. The operator of the DHC system is also referred to as the "DHC operator". Regarding the heat medium supplied through the heat transfer pipe 34a, steam can be used instead of water such as cold or warm water. Furthermore, the heat HT (heat medium) received by the aforementioned receiving device can be directly supplied to the air conditioner of facility F without passing through a heat source. In this case, the receiving device can be virtually processed as a heat source 110C.

[0035] Heat source 110D is a gas-fired heat source that operates by consuming gas GS. Gas GS is supplied from the equipment of a gas supplier (e.g., a gas company) to facility F via gas supply pipe 36. Each heat source is also referred to as "heat source 110". Furthermore, the number of electrical heat sources included in heat source group 105 may be one or more, not limited to three. Similarly, the number of DHC heat sources included in heat source group 105 may be two or more. Likewise, the number of gas-fired heat sources included in heat source group 105 may also be two or more. Heat source group 105 may also include a heat storage tank as a heat source.

[0036] Storage device 130 stores priority information 135. Priority information 135 indicates the start-up priority of heat source 110A to 110D. The higher the start-up priority of heat source 110, the higher the priority it is to be started; the lower the start-up priority, the higher the priority it is to be stopped.

[0037] Control device 140 controls heat source group 105 to meet the heat demand within facility F. Specifically, control device 140 controls heat source group 105 to generate heat exceeding the heat demand. Control device 140 controls heat source group 105 based on the target air temperature within facility F and the temperature measured by sensor group 120, using feedback control or the like. In this embodiment, control device 140 performs unit number control of heat sources 110A to 110D according to priority information 135. Unit number control refers to controlling the number of operating heat sources among heat sources 110A to 110D. In embodiment 1, this unit number control is assumed to be a start / stop control that switches each heat source 110 between its rated operating state and a stopped state. Unit number control will be described in detail later. Control device 140 communicates with server 20.

[0038] Server 20 includes a communication device 210, a storage device (storage unit) 220, and a processing device 240. The communication device 210 communicates with the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 and sends various instructions to the control device 140. These instructions will be described in detail later.

[0039] Storage device 220 stores demand forecast DB222, constraint information DB226, and specification information DB228. Demand forecast DB222 contains various information used to predict the shift in heat demand (kJ) within facility F. This information includes historical information on past heat demand within facility F, information indicating the presence or absence of scheduled events within facility F, information indicating the number of users within facility F, and information on the external weather of facility F (atmospheric conditions obtained by integrating meteorological factors such as temperature, humidity, wind, cloud cover, visibility, rain, snow, and thunder). The number of users can be counted using images captured by a camera (not shown) installed in facility F, through image processing technology.

[0040] Constraint information DB226 indicates the specified constraints related to heat sources 110A to 110D during the application period (described later). These constraints will be explained in detail later. Specification information DB228 indicates the specifications of each heat source 110.

[0041] Processing unit 240 includes memory and a CPU (Central Processing Unit) (neither shown). The memory includes ROM (Read Only Memory) and RAM (Random Access Memory). ROM stores programs executed by the processor. RAM functions as working memory. The CPU performs various arithmetic operations according to the programs described above.

[0042] Figure 2 This is a diagram illustrating the data structure used to illustrate the DB228 specification information. (See reference...) Figure 2 The specification information DB228 includes heat information 231, energy efficiency information 232, operating cost information 233, emissions information 234, electricity consumption information 235, gas consumption information 236, heat usage information 238, and minimum operating time information 237.

[0043] Heat information 231 indicates the amount of heat generated by each heat source 110 per unit time. This heat is equivalent to the heat generated by the heat source under rated operating conditions (rated output). In this example, heat source 110A has the lowest rated output, and the rated outputs of heat sources 110B, 110C, and 110D are twice the rated output of heat source 110A (QA=1000 < QB=QC=QD=2000).

[0044] Energy efficiency information 232 indicates the energy efficiency (COP: Coefficient of Performance) of each heat source 110. Energy efficiency is equivalent to the ratio of heat generated by the heat source to the energy (electrical or gas energy) input to the heat source 110. In this example, heat source 110A has the highest energy efficiency, followed by heat sources 110B, 110C, and 110D in descending order of energy efficiency (COP-A > COP-B > COP-C > COP-D).

[0045] Operating cost information 233 represents the operating cost per unit time of each heat source 110. For example, if the heat source is an electric heat source, the operating cost is equivalent to the electricity cost per unit time. If the heat source is a gas heat source, the operating cost is equivalent to the gas cost per unit time. Discharge information 234 represents the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted per unit time by each heat source 110 accompanying its operation. In this example, the discharge is assumed to be the total CO2 emitted from the heat source during its operation; however, it can also be determined by including the amount of CO2 emitted along with the generation of energy (e.g., electricity) used to power the heat source.

[0046] Electricity consumption information 235 indicates the electricity consumption per unit time for each of the at least one electric heat source included in heat source group 105. Gas consumption information 236 indicates the gas consumption per unit time for each of the at least one gas-fired heat source included in heat source group 105. Heat usage information 238 indicates the heat usage per unit time for each of the at least one DHC heat source included in heat source group 105.

[0047] Minimum operating time information 237 indicates the minimum operating time of each heat source 110. The minimum operating time is the minimum duration for which the heat source needs to operate continuously after startup, and is predetermined from the perspective of protecting the heat source. Control device 140 performs quantity control of heat sources 110A to 110 so that each heat source 110 continues to operate for a period exceeding its minimum operating time after startup. In this example, the minimum operating times of heat sources 110A to 110D are 3 hours, 5 hours, 3 hours, and 1 hour, respectively.

[0048] Figure 3 This diagram illustrates an example of the unit control of heat sources 110A to 110 performed by the control device 140. This example corresponds to a comparative example where the unit control described later in the embodiment is not performed. In the comparative example, priority information 135 is predetermined such that the heat source 110 with higher energy efficiency has a higher startup priority. Figure 2 In the example, the startup priority of the comparative example is decreased according to the order of heat source 110A, 110B, 110C, 110D. The startup priority determined in this way is also called the "default priority".

[0049] Reference Figure 3 The horizontal axis represents time. Period TPi (i=7~18) represents the time period from hour i to hour (i+1). For example, period TP7 represents the time period from 7:00 to 8:00. The vertical axis represents heat. Line TD represents the actual shift of heat demand Di during the period from 7:00 to 19:00 on a given day (period TP). Heat demand Di is the minimum amount of heat that needs to be generated by heat source group 105 during period TPi, determined based on the target air temperature within facility F and the measured temperature by sensor group 120.

[0050] The residual heat Hi is equivalent to the difference between the heat generated by the ni (1≤ni≤4, i=7~18) heat sources 110 operating during period TPi and the heat demand Di. For example, during period TP7, heat source 110A operates, therefore, the residual heat H7 is equivalent to the difference between the rated output (QA) of heat source 110A and the heat demand D7. During period TP9, heat sources 110A and 110B operate, therefore, the residual heat H9 is equivalent to the difference between the total rated output (QA+QB) of heat sources 110A and 110B and the heat demand D9. The residual heat Hi is related to the overall energy efficiency of the heat source group 105. Specifically, the less residual heat Hi, the higher the energy efficiency; conversely, the more residual heat Hi, the lower the energy efficiency.

[0051] The operating cost Ci is equivalent to the operating cost of the ni heat sources 110 during the period TPi. The CO2 emission Ei is equivalent to the amount of CO2 emitted from the ni heat sources 110 during the period TPi.

[0052] The control device 140 executes the number control of heat sources 110A to 110 according to the priority information 135, so that the heat generated by the ni heat sources 110 within each period TPi meets the heat demand during that period. As described above, in the comparative example, the start-up priority shown by the priority information 135 is the default priority. Therefore, heat source 110A is started with the highest priority, followed by heat sources 110B, 110C, and 110D in that order. The number control in the comparative example will be explained in detail below.

[0053] For example, when 7 o'clock arrives, control device 140 needs to activate any one of heat sources 110A to 110D to meet the heat demand during period TP7. In this example, heat source 110A has the highest activation priority, and activating heat source 110A can meet the heat demand during period TP7 (QA > TD). Therefore, control device 140 activates heat source 110A among heat sources 110A to 110D. During period TP8, the heat demand is the same as during period TP7. Therefore, by continuing to operate heat source 110A, the heat demand can be met. Therefore, control device 140 continues to operate heat source 110A and does not need to activate other heat sources 110.

[0054] At 9:00 AM, the heat demand increases. If only heat source 110A continues to operate, the heat demand during period TP9 cannot be met. Therefore, in addition to heat source 110A, control device 140 needs to activate other heat sources 110. In this example, heat source 110B has the second highest activation priority, and activating heat source 110B can meet the heat demand during period TP9 (QA+QB>TD). Therefore, control device 140 activates heat source 110B at 9:00 AM. At 10:00 AM, the heat demand increases slightly, but by continuing to operate heat sources 110A and 110B, the heat demand during period TP11 can be met. Therefore, control device 140 continues to operate heat sources 110A and 110B, and there is no need to activate other heat sources 110.

[0055] At 11:00, the heat demand increases. Continuing to operate heat sources 110A and 110B alone is insufficient to meet the heat demand during period TP11. Therefore, in addition to heat sources 110A and 110B, control device 140 needs to activate other heat sources 110. In this example, heat source 110C has the third highest activation priority, and activating heat source 110C can meet the heat demand during period TP11 (QA+QB+QC>TD). Therefore, control device 140 activates heat source 110C at 11:00.

[0056] At 12:00, the heat demand decreases sharply. During period TP12, the heat demand can be met by continuing to operate heat sources 110A and 110B alone (QA+QB>TD). Therefore, it is preferable for control device 140 to immediately stop heat source 110C, which has the lowest start priority among heat sources 110A to 110C, to reduce the remaining heat H12. However, as mentioned above, each heat source 110 needs to operate for more than its minimum operating time. In this example, heat source 110C was just started at 11:00, and the minimum operating time of heat source 110C is 3 hours. Therefore, control device 140 cannot stop heat source 110C during period TP12. Similarly, during period TP13, the heat demand can be met by heat sources 110A and 110B alone (QA+QB>TD), but control device 140 cannot stop heat source 110C during period TP13 due to its minimum operating time.

[0057] For this reason, in the comparative example, the residual heat H12 and H13 within periods TP12 and TP13 are excessively increased. As a result, the total residual heat within period TP may increase unnecessarily. The total residual heat is the difference between the total heat generated by heat sources 110A to 110D during period TP and the total heat demand within facility F during period TP (TD1 = D7 + D8 ... + D18). In the comparative example, the total residual heat is TH01 (= H7 + H8 ... + H18).

[0058] As described above, in the comparative example, the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled according to the default priority. As a result, although the heat source 110 with higher energy efficiency is started with higher priority, the total residual heat of the entire TP (waste of energy consumption) may increase unnecessarily during this period.

[0059] Below, we will discuss the constraint information DB226 ( Figure 1 The constraints will be explained. In Embodiment 1, the constraints include the condition that the total residual heat of the heat sources 110A to 110D during the period TP is below a reference amount (residual heat condition). Figure 3 In the comparative example, the total surplus heat increases, which may prevent the surplus heat condition from being met. As a result, the constraint condition may not be adequately satisfied.

[0060] Therefore, the server 20 based on embodiment 1 has a structure for addressing such problems. Specifically, when controlling the number of heat sources 110A to 110B according to the default priority, the server 20 predicts whether constraints such as remaining heat conditions are met. Then, if the server 20 predicts that the constraints are not met, it sends an instruction signal to the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 to change the start-up priority from the default priority (first priority) to another start-up priority (second priority) that is estimated to meet the constraints. Thus, even if the constraints cannot be met under the default priority, appropriately changing the start-up priority can still satisfy the constraints.

[0061] Figure 4 This is a functional block diagram of server 20 based on implementation method 1. (Refer to...) Figure 4 The server 20 includes a demand forecasting unit 305, a condition forecasting unit 310, an estimation unit 315, and an instruction unit 320 as its functional structure. The functions of the demand forecasting unit 305, the condition forecasting unit 310, and the estimation unit 315 are implemented by the CPU of the processing device 240 executing a program stored in the ROM. The function of the instruction unit 320 is implemented by the communication device 210 and the processing device 240 cooperating in operation.

[0062] The demand forecasting unit 305 forecasts the shift in heat demand within the object period of facility F according to the demand forecasting DB222, and outputs a heat demand forecast representing the forecast result of this shift. The object period is not specifically limited; however, in this example, it is the period TP (…). Figure 3 The demand forecasting unit 305 forecasts heat demand according to each period TPi, which serves as a unit period. However, the unit period can be freely set. In one example, the demand forecasting unit 305 outputs a heat demand forecast by setting the shift in heat demand in facility F during the period from 7:00 to 19:00 on the same date in the past to the shift in heat demand during the target period. The demand forecasting unit 305 can also output a heat demand forecast based on the weather by using a machine learning model that has learned the relationship between the external weather of facility F and heat demand. The demand forecasting unit 305 can also output a heat demand forecast by using mathematical statistical processing. The demand forecasting unit 305 can also output a heat demand forecast by predicting the number of people going to facility F based on information indicating the type of scheduled event to be performed in facility F and the time period of the event.

[0063] The condition prediction unit 310 predicts, based on heat demand prediction and specification information DB228 (e.g., heat information 231 and minimum operating time information 237), whether the constraint conditions of constraint information DB226 will be met when controlling the number of heat sources 110A to 110D according to the default priority. The following describes the processing steps performed by the condition prediction unit 310.

[0064] The condition prediction unit 310, for example, predicts a combination of ni heat sources 110 that meet the heat demand for each period TPi according to a default priority order.

[0065] In one example, the condition prediction unit 310 follows specification information DB228 (specifically, as...). Figure 2 Based on the heat information 231, the condition prediction unit 310 determines whether the rated output value of the heat source 110A, which has the highest start-up priority, is greater than or equal to the predicted heat demand during the period TPi. If the rated output value is greater than or equal to the predicted value, the condition prediction unit 310 predicts that the combination for the period TPi is heat source 110A. On the other hand, if the rated output value of heat source 110A is less than the predicted heat demand, the condition prediction unit 310 determines, based on the heat information 231, whether the combined rated output value of heat sources 110A and 110B is greater than or equal to the predicted heat demand. If the combined value is greater than or equal to the predicted value, the condition prediction unit 310 predicts that the combination for the period TPi is heat source 110A and 110B.

[0066] If the rated output values ​​of heat sources 110A and 110B are less than the predicted heat demand, the condition prediction unit 310 determines, based on heat information 231, whether the total rated output value of heat sources 110A to 110C is greater than or equal to the predicted value. If the total value is greater than or equal to the predicted value, the condition prediction unit 310 predicts that the combination for period TPi is heat sources 110A to 110C. If the rated output values ​​of heat sources 110A to 110C are less than the predicted heat demand, the condition prediction unit 310 determines, based on heat information 231, whether the total rated output value of heat sources 110A to 110D is greater than or equal to the predicted value. If the total value is greater than or equal to the predicted value, the condition prediction unit 310 predicts that the combination for period TPi is heat sources 110A to 110D.

[0067] As described above, the condition prediction unit 310 predicts the combination of heat sources 110 for each period TPi. The prediction assumes that each heat source 110 continues to operate for a period longer than its minimum operating time after startup. For example, even if the heat source 110 with the lowest startup priority is removed from the predicted combination for period TPi, the heat demand for period TP(i+1) can still be met. However, if the operating time of a heat source 110 at a point in period TP(i+1) is less than its minimum operating time, the condition prediction unit 310 predicts the combination of heat sources 110 for period TP(i+1) under the assumption that the heat source 110 operates without stopping during period TP(i+1).

[0068] The condition prediction unit 310 predicts, according to specification information DB228, whether the combination of heat source 110 predicted for each period TPi as described above satisfies the constraint conditions (e.g., residual heat conditions) within period TP. In Embodiment 1, the condition prediction unit 310 predicts, according to heat information 231, the heat generated by the heat source group 105 when the heat source group 105 operates in the combination of heat source 110 predicted as described above, for each period TPi. The condition prediction unit 310 predicts the residual heat for each period TPi based on the predicted heat generated and the heat demand prediction, and predicts the total residual heat within period TP based on the prediction results. The condition prediction unit 310 predicts whether the residual heat conditions are satisfied based on the expected total residual heat. In this example, the condition prediction unit 310 predicts that the residual heat conditions, which are constraint conditions, are not satisfied under the default priority.

[0069] If the estimation unit 315 predicts that the constraint conditions will not be met, it estimates the optimized start-up priority (second priority) in a manner that satisfies the constraint conditions in the control of the number of heat source units 110A to 110D, based on the heat demand forecast and specification information DB228 (e.g., heat information 231 and minimum operating time information 237). In one example, the estimation unit 315 estimates the second priority based on the above-mentioned forecast results, heat information 231, and minimum operating time information 237, such that the total remaining heat is below the baseline amount. The processing of the estimation unit 315 for estimating the second priority will be explained in more detail below.

[0070] Figure 5 This is a diagram showing the combination of ni heat sources 110 operating within each period TPi and the total remaining heat under each startup priority mode for heat sources 110A to 110D. In this example, the above combinations and total remaining heat are shown for 24 (=4!) startup priority modes respectively.

[0071] Reference Figure 5 The estimation unit 315 estimates the number of heat sources 110 operating during each period of TPi, based on heat demand forecasts, heat information 231, and minimum operating time information 237, for each mode with startup priority. Using this estimation result, the estimation unit 315 estimates the heat generated from the heat source group 105 during each period of TPi according to the heat information 231. Using this estimation result, the estimation unit 315 estimates the total heat generated by the entire TP during the period.

[0072] For example, for mode 1, estimation unit 315 anticipates that, under the default priority, the heat source 110 of the illustrated type will operate during periods TP7 to TP18. This anticipated result is based on the premise that the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled to meet the heat demand during each period TPi, and that each heat source 110 operates for a minimum operating time after its startup. In the figure, "A" to "D" represent heat sources 110A to 110D, respectively.

[0073] Under the default priority, in one example, the estimation unit 315 anticipates that only heat source 110A will operate during periods TP7 and TP8, and that heat sources 110A and 110B will operate during periods TP9 and TP10. The estimation unit 315 anticipates the total generated heat based on the anticipated results of the ni heat sources 110 operating in each period TPi and the heat information 231. The estimation unit 315 subtracts the sum of the predicted values ​​of the heat demand for each period TPi based on the heat demand forecast from the anticipated total generated heat, thereby anticipating the total remaining heat (TH01). Similarly, the estimation unit 315 anticipates the total remaining heat (TH02, ... TH24) for each startup priority other than the default priority.

[0074] The estimation unit 315 estimates the start-up priority corresponding to any one of the total residual heat below the baseline amount in the expected total residual heat (TH01, TH02, ... TH24) (e.g., the smallest TH02) as the second priority. In this example, the second priority is assumed to be the order of heat sources 110A, 110B, 110D, 110C.

[0075] In the above, the estimation unit 315 estimates the total remaining heat for all theoretically conceivable modes (all 24 modes) of the startup priority of heat sources 110A to 110D, and estimates the second priority based on the estimation results. Alternatively, the estimation unit 315 can also estimate the total remaining heat for a predetermined number of modes that are considered highly feasible among these modes, based on the constraint information DB226 and specification information DB228, and estimate the second priority based on the estimation results.

[0076] Refer again Figure 4In response to the estimation of the second priority order performed by the estimation unit 315, the instruction unit 320 sends an instruction signal INS to the control device 140. The instruction signal INS is a signal that instructs the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 to change the start priority order from the default priority order to the second priority order. In response to receiving the instruction signal INS, the control device 140 rewrites the priority information 135 so that the start priority order shown by the priority information 135 is changed from the default priority order to the second priority order. Then, the control device 140 performs the number control of heat source 110A to 110D according to the second priority order shown by the rewritten priority information 135.

[0077] As described above, in Embodiment 1, the demand forecasting unit 305 outputs a forecast result (heat demand forecast) of the shift in heat demand during the target period within facility F. The condition forecasting unit 310 predicts whether constraints such as remaining heat conditions are met when controlling the number of heat sources 110A to 110D according to the default priority. The estimation unit 315 estimates other priority levels (second priority levels) that meet the constraints when the forecast indicates that the constraints are not met under the default priority level. The second priority level is estimated considering the heat demand forecast; therefore, it considers opportunities when the heat demand decreases sharply during period TP (e.g., when the heat demand decreases sharply during period TP). Figure 3 (As shown, the heat demand at 12 o'clock is reduced), and it is appropriately estimated so that the constraints are ultimately met. According to the instruction unit 320, the instruction control device 140 changes the start-up priority of heat sources 110A to 110D from the default priority to the second priority. As a result, the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled according to the second priority instead of the default priority. As a result, unlike the comparative example, the constraints such as the remaining heat condition can be appropriately met.

[0078] Figure 6 This is a diagram used to illustrate the advantages of Embodiment 1. (Refer to...) Figure 6 Linear TDP represents the heat demand forecast output by the demand forecasting unit 305. In this example, assuming the heat demand forecast is accurate, line TDP and line TD ( Figure 3 The same as the comparative example ( ). Implementation method 1 is the same as the comparative example ( ). Figure 3 The difference is that, instead of the default priority, the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled according to the second priority determined by the order of heat sources 110A, 110B, 110D, and 110C.

[0079] According to Embodiment 1, the residual heat in TP12 and TP13 during the period is less than the residual heat in TP12 and TP13 during the period of the Comparative Example (H12a < H12, H13a < H13). As a result, the total residual heat (TH02) in Embodiment 1 is less than the total residual heat (TH01) in the Comparative Example. Therefore, even if the residual heat condition is not met under the default priority, the residual heat condition can be met by changing the start priority. As a result, the waste of energy consumed in the heat source group 105 can be reduced.

[0080] Figure 7 This is a flowchart illustrating an example of the process performed in Implementation 1. The flowchart begins before the period TP. Hereinafter, the steps will be abbreviated as "S".

[0081] Reference Figure 7 Server 20 predicts the shift of heat demand within period TP in facility F according to demand forecast DB222, and outputs heat demand forecast (S105). Server 20 reads constraint information DB226 and specification information DB228 from storage device 220 (S110).

[0082] Server 20, based on heat demand forecast and specification information DB228, predicts whether the constraint conditions of constraint information DB226 are met when controlling the number of heat sources 110A to 110D according to the default priority (S115). If the constraint conditions are met (S115: Yes), the process ends. In this case, the start priority remains, for example, the default priority. If the constraint conditions are not met (S115: No), server 20, based on heat demand forecast and specification information DB228, anticipates the ni heat sources 110 operating within each period TPi, thereby estimating the second priority (S120). Then, server 20 sends an indication signal INS to the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 (S135).

[0083] Upon receiving the instruction signal INS (S240), the control device 140 rewrites the priority information 135 according to the instruction signal INS (S245). Then, instead of the default priority, the control device 140 executes the number control of heat source units 110A to 110D according to the second priority shown by the rewritten priority information 135 (S250). This number control is executed so that the heat generated by the heat source group 105 within each period TPi is greater than the heat demand within facility F, and each heat source unit 110 operates for a period longer than its minimum operating time after its startup.

[0084] As described above, according to Embodiment 1, the control device 140 changes the start-up priority of heat sources 110A to 110D from the default priority to the second priority. Therefore, instead of the default priority, the number of units controlled according to the second priority is performed. Thus, when the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled according to the priority information 135, the heat demand within facility F can be met, and the constraints can be appropriately satisfied. For example, the second priority is estimated so that the total residual heat is below a reference amount, and the number of units controlled is performed by the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 according to the estimated second priority. As a result, compared with the comparative example (… Figure 3 Unlike other methods, even if the heat demand decreases sharply within a certain period, it can prevent an increase in the total residual heat of the entire TP during that period. Furthermore, the control device 140 can rewrite the priority information 135 according to the instruction signal INS from the instruction unit 320, thus eliminating the need for complex control. As a result, both the heat demand and the constraints can be appropriately satisfied with a simple structure.

[0085] In the above, it is assumed that (1) the specification information DB228 contains minimum operating time information 237, and (2) the control device 140 controls the heat source group 105 so that each heat source 110 operates for a period of time exceeding its minimum operating time. However, neither (1) nor (2) is necessary. Even if one or both of (1) and (2) are not met, the condition prediction unit 310 predicts whether the constraint condition (e.g., the remaining heat condition) will be met when the number of units is controlled according to the default priority, based on the heat demand prediction and specification information DB228 (e.g., heat information 231). Then, if the prediction is that the constraint condition is not met, the estimation unit 315 estimates the second priority according to the heat demand prediction and specification information DB228. In this case, the indication unit 320 also sends an indication signal INS to the control device 140.

[0086] [Modification 1 of Implementation Method 1]

[0087] The constraint condition can also replace the surplus heat condition or include the cost condition based on the surplus heat condition. The cost condition is a condition that is based on the total operating cost of heat sources 110A to 110D during the period TP. When the constraint condition includes the cost condition, the estimation unit 315 estimates the heat demand forecast and operating cost information 233. Figure 2 Estimate the second priority to bring the total work cost below the baseline cost. This will be explained in detail below.

[0088] Unless otherwise specified, the hardware structure and processing steps of the thermal management system 1 in this variation are basically the same as those in Embodiment 1. Therefore, detailed descriptions will not be repeated. The same applies to the other variations 2 to 4 described later.

[0089] Figure 8 This is a graph showing the number of heat sources 110 operating in each period of TPi and the total operating cost under the startup priority of each mode, for each startup priority mode.

[0090] Reference Figure 8 The estimation unit 315 estimates the number of heat sources 110 operating within each of the 24 modes with startup priority. Using the estimated results, the estimation unit 315 estimates the total operating cost for each mode based on the operating cost information 233.

[0091] For example, for Mode 1, under the default priority, estimation unit 315 anticipates that the heat source 110 of the illustrated type will operate during periods TP7 to TP18. This anticipation is based on the premise that the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled to meet the heat demand during each period TPi, and that each heat source 110 operates for a minimum operating time after its startup. Estimation unit 315 estimates the total operating cost (TC01) based on the anticipated results of the ni heat sources 110 operating during each period TPi and the operating cost information 233. Similarly, estimation unit 315 estimates the total operating cost (TC02, ... TC24) for the startup priority of other modes.

[0092] The estimation unit 315 estimates the start-up priority of any one of the total operating costs (e.g., the smallest TC03) below the baseline cost in the anticipated total operating costs (TC01, TC02, ... TC24) as the second priority. In this example, the second priority is assumed to be the order of heat sources 110A, 110C, 110B, and 110D. The instruction unit 320 sends an instruction signal INS to the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 to change the start-up priority from the default priority to the second priority estimated as described above.

[0093] By setting the structure in this way, a second priority is estimated so that the total operating cost is below the baseline cost, and the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled according to the estimated second priority. As a result, excessive cost increases during the operation of these heat sources 110 can be avoided.

[0094] Figure 9 This is a diagram used to illustrate the advantages of variation 1 of embodiment 1. (Refer to...) Figure 9 Linear TDP is a forecast of heat demand, and Figure 6The lines shown are the same. This variation is the same as the comparative example ( Figure 3 The difference lies in that, instead of the default priority, the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled according to the second priority determined by the order of heat sources 110A, 110C, 110B, and 110D. According to this variation 1, the residual heat in TP9, TP10, and TP17 during the period is less than that in the comparative example (C9a < C9, C10a < C10, C17a < C17). Therefore, the total operating cost (TC03) of this variation is less than the total operating cost (TC01) of the comparative example. Therefore, even if the cost conditions are not met under the default priority, the cost conditions can be met by changing the start-up priority.

[0095] [Modification 2 of Implementation Method 1]

[0096] The constraint condition can also replace the residual heat condition or include a CO2 emission condition based on the residual heat condition. The CO2 emission condition is a condition with the total emission of CO2 emitted during the period TP as a reference emission amount. In this example, it is assumed that the total emission amount is the total emission of CO2 emitted from these heat sources; however, it can also be determined by including the amount of CO2 emitted during the generation of energy (e.g., electricity) used to operate these heat sources. When the constraint condition includes a CO2 emission condition, the estimation unit 315 calculates the emission amount based on the heat demand forecast and emission information 234. Figure 2 The second priority is estimated so that the total emissions are below the baseline emissions. This will be explained in detail below.

[0097] Figure 10 This is a graph showing the number of heat sources 110 operating during each period of TPi and the total discharge under the startup priority of each mode, for each startup priority mode.

[0098] Reference Figure 10 The estimation unit 315 estimates the number of heat sources 110 operating within each of the 24 modes with startup priority. Using the estimated results, the estimation unit 315 estimates the total discharge for each mode based on the discharge information 234.

[0099] For example, for Mode 1, under the default priority, estimation unit 315 anticipates that the heat source 110 of the illustrated type will operate during periods TP7 to TP18. This anticipation is based on the premise that the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled to meet the heat demand during each period TPi, and that each heat source 110 operates for a minimum operating time after its startup. Estimation unit 315 anticipates the total discharge (TE01) based on the anticipated results of the ni heat sources 110 operating during each period TPi and the discharge information 234. Similarly, estimation unit 315 anticipates the total discharge (TE02, ... TE24) for the startup priority of other modes.

[0100] The estimation unit 315 estimates the start-up priority of any total discharge volume (e.g., the smallest TE23) below the baseline discharge volume among the anticipated total discharge volumes (TE01, TE02, ... TE24) as the second priority. In this example, it is assumed that the second priority is the order of heat source units 110D, 110B, 110C, and 110A. The instruction unit 320 sends an instruction signal INS to the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 to change the start-up priority from the default priority to the second priority estimated as described above.

[0101] By setting the structure in this way, a second priority is estimated so that the total CO2 emission is below the baseline emission, and the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled according to the estimated second priority. As a result, excessive CO2 emission during the operation of these heat sources 110 can be avoided.

[0102] Figure 11 This is a diagram used to illustrate the advantages of variation 2 of embodiment 1. (Refer to...) Figure 11 Linear TDP is a forecast of heat demand, and Figure 6 The lines shown are the same. This variation is the same as the comparative example ( Figure 3 The difference lies in that, instead of the default priority, the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled according to the second priority determined by the order of heat sources 110D, 110B, 110C, and 110A. According to this variation 2, the CO2 emission during TP7 to TP17 is less than the CO2 emission during TP7 to TP17 in the comparative example (Eia < Ei, 7 ≤ i ≤ 18). Therefore, the total emission (TE23) of this variation is less than the total emission (TE01) of the comparative example. Therefore, even if the CO2 emission condition is not met under the default priority, the CO2 emission condition can be met by changing the start-up priority.

[0103] The estimation unit 315 can also determine, from the 24 models, the start-up priority that also holds constraints related to factors such as carbon tax and carbon credits, in addition to constraints related to total emissions, and estimate the determined start-up priority as the second priority.

[0104] [Modification 3 of Implementation Method 1]

[0105] The constraint condition may also replace the surplus heat condition or include an electricity contract condition based on the surplus heat condition. The electricity contract condition is that the total electricity consumption of at least one electric heat source included in heat source group 105 during period TP is within a first reference range. In this example, the at least one electric heat source is heat source 110A to 110C.

[0106] The first reference range is determined based on the contract between the operator of facility F and the electricity supply operator. The first reference range is predetermined to properly ensure the balance between electricity supply and demand in the power grid. The first reference range may be determined by its upper and lower limits, or by either the upper or lower limit alone.

[0107] When the constraints include electricity contract conditions, the estimation unit 315 estimates the second priority based on heat demand forecasts and electricity consumption information 235, so that the total electricity consumption is within the first benchmark range. This will be explained in detail below.

[0108] Figure 12 This is a graph showing the number of heat sources 110 operating during each period of TPi and the total power consumption under the startup priority of each mode, for each startup priority mode.

[0109] Reference Figure 12 The estimation unit 315 estimates the number of heat sources 110 operating during each of the 24 modes with startup priority. Using the estimation results, the estimation unit 315 estimates the total power consumption for each mode based on the power consumption information 235.

[0110] For example, for mode 1, the estimation unit 315, under the default priority, anticipates that the heat source 110 of the illustrated type will operate during periods TP7 to TP18. This anticipation is based on the premise that the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled to ensure that the heat demand is met during each period TPi, and that each heat source 110 operates for a minimum operating time after its startup. The estimation unit 315 anticipates the total power consumption (TP01) based on the anticipated results of the ni heat sources 110 operating during each period TPi and the power consumption information 235. Similarly, the estimation unit 315 anticipates the total power consumption (TP02, ... TP24) for the startup priority of other modes.

[0111] The estimation unit 315 estimates the start-up priority corresponding to any one of the total power consumptions within the first reference range (e.g., the smallest TP04) from the anticipated total power consumption (TP01, TP02, ... TP24) as the second priority. In this example, the second priority is assumed to be the order of heat sources 110A, 110C, 110D, and 110B. The instruction unit 320 sends an instruction signal INS to the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 to change the start-up priority from the default priority to the second priority estimated as described above.

[0112] By setting up such a structure, a second priority is estimated so that the total power consumption is within the first benchmark range, and the number of heat source units 110A to 110D is controlled according to the estimated second priority. As a result, the contract between the operator of the facility F and the power supply operator can be properly complied with, and an appropriate contribution can be made to ensuring the balance between power supply and demand.

[0113] [Modification 4 of Implementation Method 1]

[0114] The constraint condition may also replace the surplus heat condition or include a gas contract condition based on the surplus heat condition. The gas contract condition is a condition that the total gas consumption during the period TP of at least one gas-fired heat source included in heat source group 105 is within the second reference range. In this example, the at least one gas-fired heat source is heat source 110D.

[0115] The second reference range is determined based on the contract between the operator of facility F and the gas supply operator. The second reference range is predetermined to properly ensure a balance between gas supply and demand in the gas supply network. The second reference range may be determined by its upper and lower limits, or by either the upper or lower limit alone.

[0116] When the constraints include gas contract terms, the estimation unit 315 estimates the second priority order based on heat demand forecasts and gas consumption information 236, so that the total gas consumption is within the second benchmark range. This will be explained in detail below.

[0117] Figure 13 This is a graph showing the number of heat sources 110 operating within each of the 24 start-up priority modes and the total gas consumption under the start-up priority of that mode, for each of the 114 start-up priority modes.

[0118] Reference Figure 13 The estimation unit 315 estimates the number of heat sources 110 operating during each period TPi for each mode with a start-up priority. Using the estimation results, the estimation unit 315 estimates the total gas consumption for each mode based on the gas consumption information 236.

[0119] For example, for Mode 1, under the default priority, estimation unit 315 anticipates that the heat source 110 of the illustrated type will operate during periods TP7 to TP18. This anticipation is based on the premise that the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled to meet the heat demand during each period TPi, and that each heat source 110 operates for a minimum operating time after its startup. Estimation unit 315 anticipates the total gas consumption (TG01) based on the anticipated results of the ni heat sources 110 operating during each period TPi and the gas consumption information 236. Similarly, estimation unit 315 anticipates the total gas consumption (TG02, ... TG24) for the startup priority of other modes.

[0120] The estimation unit 315 estimates the start-up priority of any one of the total gas consumptions within the second reference range (the smallest TP05 in this example) from the anticipated total gas consumption (TG01, TG02, ... TG24) as the second priority. In this example, the second priority is assumed to be the order of heat sources 110A, 110D, 110B, and 110C. The instruction unit 320 sends an instruction signal INS to the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 to change the start-up priority from the default priority to the second priority estimated as described above.

[0121] By setting up such a structure, a second priority is estimated so that the total gas consumption is within a second baseline range, and the number of heat source units 110A to 110D is controlled according to the estimated second priority. As a result, the contract between the operator of the facility F and the gas supply operator can be properly complied with, and an appropriate contribution can be made to ensuring a balance between gas supply and demand.

[0122] [Modification 5 of Implementation Method 1]

[0123] The constraint conditions may also replace the residual heat conditions or include, based on the residual heat conditions, contractual conditions determined according to the contract between the operator of the utilization facility F and the DHC operator. These contractual conditions are also referred to as "DHC contractual conditions." For example, a DHC contractual condition is that the total heat usage during period TP of at least one DHC heat source included in heat source group 105 is within a third reference range. In this example, the at least one DHC heat source is heat source 110C.

[0124] The third baseline range is determined based on the DHC contract terms, for example, in order to properly ensure the heat supply and demand balance in the DHC system. The third baseline range may be determined by its upper and lower limits, or by either the upper or lower limit alone.

[0125] When the constraints include the DHC contract terms, the estimation unit 315 estimates the second priority order based on the heat demand forecast and heat usage information 238, so that the total heat usage mentioned above is within the third benchmark range. This will be explained in detail below.

[0126] Figure 14 This is a graph showing the number of heat sources 110 operating within each of the 24 modes with startup priority, and the total heat usage under the startup priority of that mode, for each of the 114 modes with startup priority.

[0127] Reference Figure 14 The estimation unit 315 estimates the number of heat sources 110 operating during each period of TPi for each mode with a startup priority. Using the estimation results, the estimation unit 315 estimates the total heat usage for each mode based on the heat usage information 238.

[0128] For example, for Mode 1, under the default priority, estimation unit 315 anticipates that the heat source 110 of the illustrated type will operate during periods TP7 to TP18. This anticipation is based on the premise that the number of heat sources 110A to 110D is controlled to meet the heat demand during each period TPi, and that each heat source 110 operates for a minimum operating time after its startup. Estimation unit 315 anticipates the total heat usage (TU01) based on the anticipated results of the ni heat sources 110 operating during each period TPi and the heat usage information 238. Similarly, estimation unit 315 anticipates the total heat usage (TU02, ... TU24) for the startup priority of other modes.

[0129] The estimation unit 315 estimates the start-up priority corresponding to any one of the total heat usage within the third reference range of the anticipated total heat usage (TU01, TU02, ... TU24) as the second priority. The instruction unit 320 sends an instruction signal INS to the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 to change the start-up priority from the default priority to the second priority estimated as described above.

[0130] By setting up such a structure, a second priority is estimated so that the total heat usage is within the third benchmark range, and the number of heat source units 110A to 110D is controlled according to the estimated second priority. As a result, the contract between the operator of the facility F and the DHC operator can be properly complied with, and an appropriate contribution can be made to ensuring a balance between heat supply and demand.

[0131] The DHC contract conditions that serve as constraints can also include a temperature condition such that the temperature of the return water RW during the TP period is within the fourth reference range. The fourth reference range is predetermined based on the contract between the operator of the facility F and the DHC operator. When the DHC contract conditions include the aforementioned temperature condition, the estimation unit 315 estimates the second priority based on the heat demand forecast and heat usage information 238, so that the temperature of the return water RW during the TP period is within the fourth reference range.

[0132] In one example, the estimation unit 315 estimates the second priority as follows: First, the estimation unit 315 estimates the temperature of the return water RW within each period TPi for each mode based on the measured value mv immediately preceding the period TP, the expected results of the combination of the ni heat sources 110 operating in each mode, and the heat usage information 238. Then, based on the expected results of the return water RW temperature, the estimation unit 315 estimates whether the above temperature conditions are met for each mode. Next, the estimation unit 315 estimates any one of the start-up priorities corresponding to the mode in all modes where the above temperature conditions are met as the second priority.

[0133] [Implementation Method 2]

[0134] In implementation 2, server 20 notifies the user of the estimated second priority and asks the user whether to change the startup priority from the default priority to the second priority. The user is, for example, the administrator of air conditioning system 10. Alternatively, server 20 may send an indication signal INS to control device 140 only if the user performs the operation to change the startup priority to the second priority.

[0135] Figure 15 This is a diagram showing the overall structure of the thermal management system in Embodiment 2. (Refer to...) Figure 15 Thermal management system 1A and thermal management system 1 of embodiment 1 or its variations 1 to 4 ( Figure 1 The difference is that it also has a user terminal 400. In other respects, unless otherwise specified, the thermal management system 1A is the same as the thermal management system 1. Therefore, detailed descriptions will not be repeated.

[0136] User terminal 400 includes a communication device 405, a display device 410, an input device 415, and a processing device 420. The communication device 405 communicates with the server 20. The display device 410 displays various screens. The input device 415 receives various operations from the user U. The processing device 420 includes a CPU and a ROM (neither shown). The CPU executes programs stored in the ROM.

[0137] Figure 16 This is a functional block diagram of server 20 in implementation method 2. (Refer to...) Figure 16 The server 20 in Embodiment 2 differs from the server 20 in Embodiment 1 or its variations 1-4 in that it also includes a notification unit 325 as a functional component. In other respects, unless otherwise specified, the server 20 in Embodiment 2 is the same as the server 20 in Embodiment 1 or its variations 1-4. Therefore, detailed descriptions will not be repeated.

[0138] Before the instruction unit 320 instructs the control device 140 to change the start priority (before sending the instruction signal INS), the notification unit 325 notifies the user U of the second priority estimated by the estimation unit 315. For example, the notification unit 325 sends a notification signal NS to the user terminal 400 informing the user U of the second priority. The function of the notification unit 325 is implemented through the cooperation of the communication device 210 and the processing device 240 of the server 20.

[0139] User terminal 400 receives notification signal NS from server 20. Consequently, user terminal 400 displays a screen on display device 410 notifying user U of the second priority order and asking if it is appropriate.

[0140] After notifying user U of the second priority (after receiving the notification signal NS), the input device 415 of user terminal 400 can accept input for an approval operation from user U. The approval operation is the approval of the second priority user operation. Upon receiving the approval operation input, user terminal 400 sends an approval signal AS to server 20 via communication device 405. The approval signal AS indicates that the approval operation has been performed. Additionally, input device 415 can also accept input for a disapproval operation from user U. A disapproval operation is the disapproval of the second priority user operation. Upon receiving the disapproval operation input, user terminal 400 sends a disapproval signal DS to server 20 via communication device 405. The disapproval signal DS indicates that the disapproval operation has been performed.

[0141] The instruction unit 320 sends an instruction signal INS to the control unit 140 only when the input device 415 accepts the input of the approval operation, that is, when the server 20 receives the approval signal AS.

[0142] The demand forecasting unit 305 may also be unable to properly forecast the shift in heat demand due to disturbances. Disturbances could be, for example, the emergency termination of a scheduled event within facility F. Since the second priority is estimated based on heat demand forecasting, if the demand forecasting unit 305 is unable to properly forecast the heat demand as described above, the estimation unit 315 may also be unable to properly estimate the second priority. As a result, executing the control of the number of heat source units 110A to 110D according to an inappropriate second priority may fail to properly meet the constraints during period TP.

[0143] User U can take into account various factors such as the aforementioned disturbances and past experience related to facility F, and appropriately anticipate the shift in heat demand within facility F. In this case, User U can determine whether the second priority is appropriate based on its own anticipated shift in heat demand, and thereby approve or disapprove the operation.

[0144] When an approved operation is performed, an instruction signal INS is sent from server 20 to control device 140. Conversely, when an unapproved operation is performed, the instruction signal INS is not sent from server 20 to control device 140. This prevents the control of the number of heat sources 110A to 110D from being executed according to the second priority order that is inappropriately estimated due to interference, etc. As a result, situations where the constraints cannot be properly met can be avoided.

[0145] The function of the instruction unit 320 can also be implemented by the CPU of the user terminal 400 executing a program stored in the ROM. In this case, the instruction signal INS, in response to the approval operation, is sent from the user terminal 400 to the air conditioning system 10, not from the server 20.

[0146] Figure 17 This is a flowchart illustrating an example of the process performed in Implementation 2. The flowchart begins before the period TP.

[0147] Reference Figure 17 S105~S120, S135 and Figure 7 The steps shown are the same. After estimating the second priority (after S120), the server 20 sends a notification signal NS to the user terminal 400 (S121).

[0148] When user terminal 400 receives notification signal NS (S222), it displays a screen notifying user U of the second priority and asking if it is appropriate. Then, user terminal 400 determines whether user U has approved the second priority (S223). Specifically, user terminal 400 determines whether an approval operation has been performed. If the second priority has been approved, i.e., an approval operation has been performed (S223: Yes), user terminal 400 sends approval signal AS to server 20 (S226). If the second priority has not been approved, i.e., a disapproval operation has been performed (S223: No), user terminal 400 sends disapproval signal DS to server 20 (S227).

[0149] Server 20 determines whether it has received approval signal AS within a specified time from sending notification signal NS (S121) (S130). If server 20 receives approval signal AS (S130: Yes), it sends indication signal INS to control device 140 of air conditioning system 10 (S135). Subsequent processing follows the procedures in S240-S250 (S121-S250). Figure 7 The same applies. If the server 20 does not receive an approval signal AS, for example, if it receives a disapproval signal DS (S130: No), it terminates the process. In this case, it does not send an indication signal INS to the control device 140, and the start priority remains, for example, the default priority.

[0150] As described above, according to Embodiment 2, it prevents the control of the number of heat source units 110A to 110D from being executed according to an inappropriate second priority order if the second priority order is inappropriately estimated due to interference or the like. As a result, it is possible to avoid situations where the constraint conditions cannot be met due to interference or the like.

[0151] [Modification 1 of Implementation Method 2]

[0152] As described above, user U can appropriately anticipate the shift in heat demand within facility F by considering various factors, such as disturbances not shown by demand forecast DB222 and past experience related to facility F. Therefore, after being notified of the second priority, user U can also determine whether to revise the second priority based on its own anticipated shift in heat demand and from the perspective of satisfying constraints. In this case, it is preferable that user U revise the second priority and execute the number control of heat source units 110A to 110D according to the revised second priority (third priority).

[0153] Therefore, the thermal management system 1A of this modified example 1 has a structure that enables the user U to modify the second priority order. This will be explained below.

[0154] Figure 18 This is the functional block diagram of server 20 in this variation 1. (Refer to...) Figure 18 The server 20 in this variant differs from the server 20 in embodiment 2 in that, instead of the instruction unit 320 ( Figure 16 The server 20 in this variant includes an instruction unit 320A. Unless otherwise specified, the server 20 in this variant is the same as the server 20 in Embodiment 2. Therefore, a detailed description will not be repeated. The same applies to the variant 2 described later.

[0155] User terminal 400 receives notification signal NS from server 20 via communication device 405. As a result, display device 410 displays a screen notifying user U of the second priority order and asking if correction is needed. Consequently, user U can determine whether the second priority order needs correction.

[0156] After notifying user U of the second priority, the input device 415 of user terminal 400 can accept input from user U indicating a correction instruction operation. The correction instruction operation is a user operation that instructs the user to correct the second priority and indicates the third priority. Communication device 405 sends a correction instruction signal CIS indicating that a correction instruction operation has been performed to server 20. Additionally, input device 415 can also accept input from user U indicating that the user does not need to correct the second priority. This operation is equivalent to the approval operation. In the case of an approval operation, communication device 405 sends an approval signal AS to server 20, similar to embodiment 2.

[0157] When the input device 415 receives a correction instruction operation, i.e., when the server 20 receives the correction instruction signal CIS, the instruction unit 320 sends an instruction signal INSa to the control device 140. The instruction signal INSa is a signal indicating that the start priority is changed from the default priority to the third priority. When the input device 415 receives an approval operation, i.e., when the server 20 receives the approval signal AS, the instruction unit 320 sends an instruction signal INS to the control device 140.

[0158] By configuring the system in this way, user U can determine that the second priority order estimated by estimation unit 315 is inappropriate, or that a more suitable start-up priority order exists compared to the second priority order, and thus determine that the second priority order needs to be corrected, and perform a correction instruction operation. As a result, an instruction signal INSa is sent to control device 140, and control device 140 is instructed to change the start-up priority order from the first priority order to the third priority order, which reflects the various situations. Consequently, the number of heat source units 110A to 110D is controlled according to the third priority order. Therefore, the constraints can be satisfied more appropriately.

[0159] The function of the instruction unit 320A can also be implemented by the CPU of the user terminal 400 executing the program stored in the ROM. In this case, the instruction signals INS and INSa, which respond to the approval operation and the correction instruction operation respectively, are sent to the air conditioning system 10 from the user terminal 400 instead of the server 20.

[0160] Figure 19 This is a flowchart illustrating an example of the processing performed in this variation 1. The flowchart begins before the period TP.

[0161] Reference Figure 19 S105~S121, S135, S222, S226 and Figure 17 The steps shown are the same. After receiving the notification signal NS (after S222), the user terminal 400 displays a screen notifying the user U of the second priority and asking if correction is needed. Then, the user terminal 400 determines whether the second priority needs to be corrected according to the user's operation (S224). If the user terminal 400 receives a correction instruction operation from the user U (S224: Yes), it determines that the second priority needs to be corrected and sends the correction instruction signal CIS to the server 20 (S228). If the user terminal 400 receives an approval operation from the user U (S224: No), it determines that the second priority does not need to be corrected and sends an approval signal AS to the server 20 (S226).

[0162] Server 20 switches processing based on whether it receives a correction instruction signal CIS within a predetermined time from the date of sending notification signal NS (S121) (S132). If server 20 receives correction instruction signal CIS (S132: Yes), it sends instruction signal INSa to control device 140 of air conditioning system 10 (S135a). If server 20 does not receive correction instruction signal CIS, i.e., receives approval signal AS (S132: No), it sends instruction signal INS to control device 140 of air conditioning system 10 (S135).

[0163] As described above, according to this variation 1, user U can determine that the second priority order estimated by the estimation unit 315 is inappropriate, or that a more suitable start-up priority order exists, and thus determine that the second priority order needs to be corrected, and perform a correction instruction operation. As a result, the number of heat source units 110A to 110D is controlled according to a third priority order that reflects the various situations described above. Therefore, the number of units is controlled according to a more suitable third priority order. As a result, situations where the constraints cannot be properly met can be avoided, and the constraints can be met more appropriately.

[0164] [Modification 2 of Implementation Method 2]

[0165] User U can also, after being notified of the second priority, consider various situations to determine whether a specific heat source 110 among heat sources 110A to 110D needs to be started or stopped within a specific period of period TP. In this case, it is preferable to control the number of heat sources 110A to 110D basically according to the second priority. On the other hand, if it is determined that a specific heat source 110 needs to be started or stopped within a specific period, the heat source is started or stopped within that period regardless of the second priority. As a result, the heat source group 105 is controlled more appropriately within the specific period, and therefore, the constraints can be satisfied more appropriately.

[0166] Therefore, the thermal management system 1A based on this modified example 2 has a structure that enables the user U to instruct the user to start or stop a specific heat source 110 within a specific period. This will be explained below.

[0167] Figure 20 This is the functional block diagram of server 20 in this variation example 2. (Refer to...) Figure 20 The server 20 in this variant differs from the server 20 in Embodiment 2 in that it includes an instruction section 320B instead of an instruction section 320.

[0168] User terminal 400 receives a notification signal NS from server 20 via communication device 405. As a result, display device 410 displays a screen informing user U of the second priority order and inquiring whether a specific heat source 110 needs to be started or stopped within a specific period. Thus, user U can determine whether the second priority order is appropriate and whether the specific heat source 110 needs to be started or stopped within the specific period. In this example, assume user U determines that the second priority order is appropriate and no correction is needed.

[0169] After notifying user U of the second priority, the input device 415 of user terminal 400 can receive input from user U indicating a start / stop instruction. A start / stop instruction is a user operation instructing the user to start or stop a specific heat source 110 within a specific period of period TP. Upon performing this operation, communication device 405 sends a start / stop instruction signal SIS indicating that a start / stop instruction operation has been performed to server 20. Additionally, after notifying user U of the second priority, input device 415 can also receive input from user U indicating that a start / stop operation is not required. A "no start / stop operation required" is a user operation indicating that the user does not wish to start or stop a specific heat source 110 within a specific period. Upon performing this operation, communication device 405 sends a "no start / stop operation required" signal UIS indicating this intention to server 20.

[0170] When input device 415 receives a start / stop instruction operation, i.e., when server 20 receives a start / stop instruction signal SIS, instruction unit 320B sends instruction signal INSb to control device 140. Instruction signal INSb indicates that the start priority is changed from the default priority to the second priority, and indicates that a specific heat source 110 is started or stopped regardless of the second priority for a specific period. When input device 415 receives an input indicating that no start / stop operation is required, i.e., when server 20 receives a no-start / stop signal UIS, instruction unit 320B sends instruction signal INS to control device 140.

[0171] By configuring the system in this way, when user U determines that a specific heat source needs to be started or stopped within a specific period, an instruction signal INSb is sent to control device 140 via a start / stop instruction operation. This instructs control device 140 to change the start priority from the first priority to the second priority, and to start or stop the specific heat source within the specific period. As a result, during periods other than the specific period in period TP, the number of units is controlled according to the second priority; on the other hand, during the specific period, the specific heat source is started or stopped regardless of the second priority. Thus, the heat source group 105 is controlled considering all these situations. Therefore, the constraints can be satisfied more appropriately.

[0172] The function of the indicator unit 320B can also be implemented by the CPU of the user terminal 400 executing the program stored in the ROM. In this case, the indicator signals INS and INSb are sent to the air conditioning system 10 from the user terminal 400, respectively, in response to the absence of start / stop operation and start / stop indication operation.

[0173] Figure 21 This is a flowchart illustrating an example of the processing performed in this variation 2. The flowchart begins before the period TP.

[0174] Reference Figure 21 S105~S121, S135, S222, S223, S227 and Figure 17 The steps shown are the same. After receiving the notification signal NS (after S222), the user terminal 400 displays a screen notifying the user U of the second priority and asking whether a specific heat source 110 needs to be started or stopped within a specific period. The user U determines whether the second priority is appropriate and whether the aforementioned start or stop is necessary. The user terminal 400 determines whether the second priority has been approved based on whether there is an approval operation from the user U (S223). If an approval operation has been performed (S223: Yes), the process proceeds to S225.

[0175] User terminal 400 determines whether a specific heat source 110 needs to be started or stopped within a specific period based on whether it has received a start / stop instruction operation from user U. If user terminal 400 has received a start / stop instruction operation (S225: Yes), it sends a start / stop instruction signal SIS to server 20 (S229). If user terminal 400 has not received a start / stop instruction operation, or in this example, has received a no-start / stop instruction operation from user U (S225: No), it sends a no-start / stop signal UIS to server 20 (S229a).

[0176] Server 20 switches processing according to whether it receives a disapproval signal DS within a specified time from the time the notification signal NS was sent (S121) (S133). If server 20 receives the disapproval signal DS (S133: Yes), the processing ends. If server 20 does not receive the disapproval signal DS (S133: No), the processing proceeds to S134.

[0177] Server 20 switches processing based on whether it receives a start / stop indication signal SIS within a specified time starting from S121 (S134). If server 20 receives the start / stop indication signal SIS (S134: Yes), it sends an indication signal INSb to the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 (S135b). If server 20 does not receive the start / stop indication signal SIS, or in this example, does not receive a start / stop signal UIS (S134: No), it sends an indication signal INS to the control device 140 of the air conditioning system 10 (S135).

[0178] As described above, according to this variation 2, when user U determines that the second priority is approved and a specific heat source needs to be started or stopped within a specific period, an instruction signal INSb is sent to the control device 140 via a start / stop instruction operation. This instructs the control device 140 to change the start priority from the first priority to the second priority, and to start or stop the specific heat source within the specific period regardless of the second priority. As a result, the constraints can be satisfied more appropriately within the specific period.

[0179] [Other variations]

[0180] The control of the number of heat sources 110A to 110D can also be a control that switches each heat source 110 between an operating state and a stopped state where its output is X% of the rated output. X is predetermined as a value greater than 0 and less than 100.

[0181] Suppose that the period (target period) for the demand forecasting unit 305 to predict the shift in heat demand is the period from 7:00 to 19:00 on a certain day (period TP). However, the target period is not limited to period TP and can be freely determined. Similarly, suppose that the demand forecasting unit 305 predicts heat demand according to each period TPi as a unit period. However, the length of the unit period is not limited to 1 hour and can be freely determined.

[0182] The estimation unit 315 estimates the second priority order based on the result of controlling the number of heat sources 110A to 110D as predicted in the specification information DB228 for each mode of start-up priority. Alternatively, the estimation unit 315 may also estimate the second priority order using a method with a defined rule base, mathematical optimization, or machine learning, which are different from this method.

[0183] In the above, the default priority is determined based on energy efficiency; however, it can also be determined based on an indicator different from energy efficiency. In such a case, the condition prediction unit 310 also predicts whether the default priority determined in this way meets the constraints based on the heat demand forecast and specification information DB228. If the prediction is that the constraints are not met, the estimation unit 315 estimates the second priority.

[0184] Embodiments of the present invention have been described; however, it should be understood that the embodiments disclosed herein are illustrative in all respects and not restrictive. The scope of the invention is set forth in the claims and is intended to include all modifications of the meaning and scope equivalent to those claims.

Claims

1. A server that communicates with a control device, wherein, The control device controls the number of operating heat sources among the multiple heat sources installed in the facility according to the start-up priority order of the multiple heat sources. The server has: The demand forecasting unit outputs a heat demand forecast that represents the shift in heat demand for objects within the facility over a period of time. The storage unit stores information representing the prescribed constraints related to the plurality of heat sources during the object period and specification information representing the specifications of each of the plurality of heat sources; The condition prediction unit predicts, based on the heat demand prediction and the specification information, whether the constraint condition will be met when the unit number control is executed in the first priority order, which is predetermined as the start-up priority order. The estimation unit, in the case that the constraint condition is not met, estimates the second priority of the start-up priority order that meets the constraint condition in the unit count control, according to the heat demand forecast and the specification information. as well as The instruction unit instructs the control device to change the start priority from the first priority to the second priority.

2. The server according to claim 1, wherein, The specification information includes heat information representing the heat generated by each of the plurality of heat sources per unit time and operating time information representing the minimum operating time of each of the plurality of heat sources. The control device executes the unit control, causing each of the plurality of heat sources to operate continuously for a period exceeding the minimum operating time of the heat source after its startup during the target period. The condition prediction unit, based on the heat demand prediction, the heat information, and the working time information, predicts whether the constraint condition will be met when the unit number control is executed according to the first priority. If the estimation unit predicts that the constraint conditions will not be met, it estimates the second priority order based on the heat demand forecast, the heat information, and the working time information.

3. The server according to claim 1, wherein, The specification information includes heat information representing the heat generated by each of the plurality of heat sources per unit time. The constraint condition includes the total residual heat of the plurality of heat sources during the object period being below a baseline amount. The total residual heat is the difference between the total heat generated by the plurality of heat sources during the target period and the total heat demand within the facility during the target period. The estimation unit estimates the second priority based on the heat demand forecast and the heat information, such that the total remaining heat is below the baseline amount.

4. The server according to claim 1, wherein, The specification information includes operating cost information representing the operating cost per unit time of each of the plurality of heat sources. The constraint condition includes that the total operating cost of the plurality of heat sources during the period of the object is below the benchmark cost. The estimation unit estimates the second priority based on the heat demand forecast and the operating cost information, such that the total operating cost is below the baseline cost.

5. The server according to claim 1, wherein, The specification information includes emission information, which represents the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit time by each of the plurality of heat sources during their operation. The constraint condition includes that the total amount of carbon dioxide emitted during the operation of the plurality of heat sources during the period in which the object is located is below the baseline emission amount. The estimation unit estimates the second priority based on the heat demand forecast and the discharge information, such that the total discharge is below the baseline discharge.

6. The server according to claim 1, wherein, The specification information includes power consumption information, which shows the power consumption per unit time for at least one electric heat source among the plurality of heat sources. The constraint condition includes the total power consumption of the at least one electric heat source within a first reference range during the object period. The first reference range is determined based on the contract between the operator utilizing the facility and the power supplier supplying electricity to the facility. The estimation unit estimates the second priority based on the heat demand forecast and the power consumption information, such that the total power consumption is within the first benchmark range.

7. The server according to claim 1, wherein, The specification information includes gas consumption information, which shows the gas consumption per unit time for at least one gas-fired heat source among the plurality of heat sources. The constraint condition includes the total gas consumption of the at least one gas-fired heat source during the object period being within the second reference range. The second reference range is determined based on the contract between the operator utilizing the facility and the gas supply operator supplying gas to the facility. The estimation unit estimates the second priority order based on the heat demand forecast and the gas consumption information, such that the total gas consumption is within the second benchmark range.

8. The server according to claim 1, wherein, The specification information includes heat usage information, which shows the heat usage per unit time for at least one heat source included in the plurality of heat sources and operating using heat supply pipes from the regional heat supply system. The constraint condition includes the total heat usage of the at least one heat source during the period of the object being within the third reference range. The third reference range is determined based on the contract between the operator utilizing the facility and the operator of the regional heat supply system. The estimation unit estimates the second priority order based on the heat demand forecast and the heat usage information, such that the total heat usage is within the third benchmark range.

9. The server according to claim 1, wherein, The specification information includes heat usage information, which shows the heat usage per unit time for at least one heat source included in the plurality of heat sources and operating using heat supply pipes from the regional heat supply system. The constraint condition includes the temperature of the return water from the at least one heat source to the regional heat supply system being within a fourth reference range during the period of the object. The fourth reference range is determined based on the contract between the operator utilizing the facility and the operator of the regional heat supply system. The estimation unit estimates the second priority based on the heat demand forecast and the heat usage information, such that the temperature of the return water during the target period is within the fourth reference range.

10. The server according to claim 1, wherein, The unit control includes start-stop control that switches each of the plurality of heat sources between its rated operating state and its stopped state. The condition prediction unit predicts whether the constraint condition is met when the start-stop control is executed according to the first priority.

11. A thermal management system, comprising: The server according to any one of claims 1 to 10; and The control device.

12. A thermal management system, comprising: A control device that controls the number of operating heat sources among the multiple heat sources installed in the facility according to the start-up priority of the multiple heat sources; The demand forecasting unit outputs a heat demand forecast that represents the shift in heat demand for objects within the facility over a period of time. The storage unit stores information representing the specified constraints during the period of the object and specification information representing the specifications of each of the plurality of heat sources; The condition prediction unit predicts, based on the heat demand prediction and the specification information, whether the constraint condition will be met when the unit number control is executed in the first priority order, which is predetermined as the start-up priority order. The estimation unit, in the case that the constraint condition is not met, estimates the second priority of the start-up priority order that meets the constraint condition in the unit count control, according to the heat demand forecast and the specification information. as well as The instruction unit instructs the control device to change the start priority from the first priority to the second priority.

13. The thermal management system according to claim 12, wherein, The thermal management system also has: The notification unit, before the instruction unit instructs the control device to change the start priority, notifies the user of the second priority; and The input unit, after notifying the second priority user, accepts input from the user approving the operation of the second priority user. Only when the input unit accepts the user's input, the instruction unit instructs the control device to change the start priority from the first priority to the second priority.

14. The thermal management system according to claim 12, wherein, The thermal management system also has: The notification unit, before the instruction unit instructs the control device to change the start priority, notifies the user of the second priority; and The input unit, after notifying the second priority, accepts user input from the user indicating a correction to the second priority and displaying a third priority as the corrected second priority. If the input unit does not accept the user's input, the indication unit instructs the control device to change the start priority from the first priority to the second priority. When the input unit accepts the user's input, the instruction unit instructs the control device to change the start priority from the first priority to the third priority.

15. The thermal management system according to claim 12, wherein, The thermal management system also has: The notification unit, before the instruction unit instructs the control device to change the start priority, notifies the user of the second priority; and The input unit, after notifying the second priority, accepts user input from the user indicating whether to start or stop a specific heat source among the plurality of heat sources during a specific period within the target period. If the input unit does not accept the user's input, the indication unit instructs the control device to change the start priority from the first priority to the second priority. When the input unit receives the user's input, the instruction unit instructs the control device to change the start priority from the first priority to the second priority, and to start or stop the specific heat source during the specific period.

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