一种基于极值分析的海洋热浪重现期预估方法及系统

The marine heat wave identification model based on extreme value analysis solves the problem of insufficient assessment of the recurrence period of marine heat wave events in existing technologies, realizes the quantitative characterization of marine heat wave risk and the identification of high-risk areas, and is applicable to marine disaster early warning and regional management.

CN122196457BActive Publication Date: 2026-07-17HAINAN RES INST OF ZHEJIANG UNIV

Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
HAINAN RES INST OF ZHEJIANG UNIV
Filing Date
2026-05-14
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing technologies are insufficient for effective quantitative analysis of marine heat wave events, especially for assessing the recurrence interval of extreme marine heat wave events, and cannot meet the needs of marine disaster early warning and regional management.

Method used

A marine heat wave identification model is constructed using an extreme value analysis method. The duration, coverage area, and intensity parameters are extracted. The recurrence interval of the marine heat wave is calculated by combining the over-threshold method and the extreme value model, and the results are mapped to the target sea area spatial grid.

Benefits of technology

It enables quantitative characterization of marine heat wave risk, improves the intuitiveness and practicality of identifying high-risk marine heat wave areas, and is applicable to disaster early warning and regional management.

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Abstract

本发明提供一种基于极值分析的海洋热浪重现期预估方法及系统,属于海洋环境监测技术领域,该方法获取海域的海表温度数据并进行标准化处理,得到标准化海温时空数据集;识别各海洋格点的热浪状态,构建格点热浪信息矩阵;对热浪状态进行区域归并和时序关联,形成区域热浪事件对象;提取事件级持续特征、空间覆盖特征和强度特征,构建参数序列;采用超阈值法提取极值样本,结合平均超额值变化特征和极值模型稳定性确定最终超阈值;建立极值模型,计算目标热浪参数值的重现期,并映射至目标海域空间网格,形成空间分辨的海洋热浪重现期风险结果。本发明能够实现海洋热浪区域事件的定量化重现期预估,提高风险评估结果的空间表达能力和实用性。
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