A method for predicting peony flowering period based on phenology

Abstract

This invention discloses a phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period, belonging to the field of plant flowering period prediction technology. The method includes: acquiring historical peony phenological data; determining whether the peony has entered the developmental stage based on the phenological data, and identifying the specific stages of the developmental stage, including the initial stage and the general stage; statistically analyzing the dates of each phenological stage, converting the dates into a day sequence, and calculating the number of days based on the first day of the month; analyzing the correlation between the initial flowering period and the phenological stages before the flowering period, which include the budding stage, sprouting stage, budding stage, small bud stage, large bud stage, and round bud color development stage, and determining key phenological stages through correlation analysis; constructing a statistical regression model based on the number of days in the key phenological stages; and applying the model to predict the initial flowering period of the peony. This invention can improve the accuracy of peony flowering period prediction, adapt to variable climates, and provide accurate prediction basis for tourism activities.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of plant flowering period prediction technology, and in particular to a method for predicting peony flowering period based on phenology. Background Technology

[0002] Peony, a woody plant belonging to the genus Paeonia in the family Paeoniaceae, possesses extremely high ornamental and medicinal value, as well as significant economic advantages. Heze region has a long history of peony cultivation, with a vast planting area and abundant varietal resources, making it my country's largest base for peony appreciation, research, and export. Since the early 1990s, the region has successfully hosted several International Peony Culture and Tourism Festivals, effectively driving the development of the local economy and cultural industries.

[0003] Traditionally, the peony blooming period is relatively fixed, usually occurring around the Grain Rain solar term and lasting about ten to fifteen days. Before the 1980s, the blooming period largely followed this natural pattern. However, due to the influence of global warming, the peony blooming period has been gradually advancing in recent years, often causing tourists to miss the peak blooming season due to inopportune timing. Therefore, developing accurate methods for predicting the blooming period to serve tourists' flower viewing needs has become an urgent technical problem to be solved.

[0004] In the field of peony flowering period prediction, existing technologies mainly construct models based on meteorological factors. Some researchers use meteorological parameters such as air temperature and sunshine duration to establish flowering period prediction equations, while others combine factors such as ground temperature, atmospheric circulation, and accumulated temperature to develop regression models. Although these methods have achieved certain results in some regions, they have obvious limitations: First, they rely too heavily on single meteorological data, ignoring the biological laws of plant growth and development, leading to large errors in prediction results in years with abnormal climates; second, the models lack universality and are difficult to adapt to changes in peony flowering periods in different regions or varieties; third, they fail to effectively integrate phenological principles and cannot capture the dynamic relationship between flowering period and plant development stages.

[0005] Phenology, as a discipline studying the relationship between climate and organisms, can reflect local climate characteristics and be used for phenological event forecasting by analyzing the periodic changes in natural phenological periods. In agriculture, this principle has been applied to predict the flowering period of pear trees and the peak flowering period of black locust trees, as well as to guide the sowing period of crops, showing good results. However, the application of phenology in predicting the flowering period of peonies is still insufficient: existing technologies mostly focus on individual early-flowering varieties or short-term observations, lacking systematic models based on long-term phenological data; at the same time, the synergistic effects of multiple plant phenological periods are not fully considered, and the accuracy and reliability of predictions need to be improved.

[0006] With the intensification of climate change and the continued rise in spring temperatures, the phenological period of peonies is advancing further, highlighting the increasing importance of accurate forecasting of flowering periods for tourism planning and related industry preparations. Existing forecasting methods suffer from shortcomings in accuracy, adaptability, and theoretical foundation, necessitating an innovative solution based on phenological principles. Summary of the Invention

[0007] In view of this, the present invention proposes a phenological-based method for predicting the flowering period of peonies, in order to solve the problem of the difficulty in accurately predicting the flowering period of peonies in order to serve flower viewing activities.

[0008] The specific technical solution of this invention is as follows: A phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period includes: Obtain historical phenological data for peonies, including the budding stage, sprouting stage, budding stage, small bell stage, large bell stage, round bud coloring stage, flowering stage, leaf enlargement stage, scale bud differentiation stage, seed maturity stage, leaf fall stage, and physiological dormancy stage. Based on phenological data, determine whether the peony has entered the developmental stage and identify the specific stage of the developmental stage, including the initial stage and the general stage; Count the dates of each phenological period, convert the dates into a series of days, and calculate the number of days based on the first day of the month. The correlation between the initial flowering period and the phenological period of peony in the early flowering period was analyzed. The phenological period in the early flowering period includes the budding period, sprouting period, budding period, small bell-shaped buds period, large bell-shaped buds period, and round bud coloring period. The key phenological periods were determined by correlation analysis. A statistical regression model was constructed based on the number of days in the key phenological period; The model was used to predict the initial flowering period of peonies.

[0009] Specifically, the initial stage is defined as the percentage of observed phenological characteristics reaching 10%, and the general stage is defined as the percentage reaching 35%.

[0010] Specifically, when determining the specific stage of development, the phenological characteristics are defined as follows: during the budding stage, the overwintering scale buds swell and the scales separate; during the sprouting stage, the scale buds emerge and the tops show color; during the budding stage, the flower buds grow scales and the young branches grow; during the small bell stage, the outer bracts of the flower buds open and the diameter reaches a specific range; during the large bell stage, the flower buds enlarge and the new branches extend; during the round bud color-transmitting stage, the flower buds are round and firm and the tops show color.

[0011] Specifically, correlation analysis was used to calculate the correlation between the number of days of the initial flowering period of peonies and the number of days of the phenological period before each flowering period in order to identify key phenological periods, which include the budding period, sprouting period, small bell-shaped period, and large bell-shaped period.

[0012] Specifically, a statistical regression model is constructed based on the number of days in the budding period, the sprouting period, the small bell-shaped period, and the large bell-shaped period. A prediction equation is established through regression analysis, and the model outputs the predicted value of the initial flowering period.

[0013] Specifically, when using the model to predict the initial flowering period, the peony is observed in real time as it enters the developmental stage. The number of days in the real-time budding period, sprouting period, small bell stage, and large bell stage is calculated and input into the model to obtain the prediction results.

[0014] A phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period includes: Establish a woody indicator plant observation system, select temperature-sensitive woody plants as indicator plants, set up observation points and select normally developing plants, focus on observing the bud opening period and leaf expansion period, and determine the phenological period by the first appearance of phenological phenomena on the branches; Conduct synchronous monitoring of herbaceous indicator plants, select herbaceous plants that reflect short-term climate, set up observation fields to mark plants, record the budding period and the peak leaf expansion period, and determine the phenological period by the first appearance as the beginning period or the appearance of half of the plants as the general period; Integrate crop phenological data, using the general emergence period as a key indicator, and record the emergence period; Integrate historical phenological data, including the initial flowering period of peonies, the phenological periods of woody plants, the phenological periods of herbaceous plants, and the phenological periods of crops, and convert the dates into a series of days; The correlation between the initial flowering period of peony and the phenological periods of woody plants, herbaceous plants, and crops was analyzed. A multiple regression model was constructed based on correlation analysis; The model was used to predict the initial flowering period of peonies.

[0015] Specifically, the woody indicator plants include Populus tomentosa, Salix matsudana, and Ulmus pumila. When observing, the representativeness of the topography and terrain should be taken into account to avoid the influence of microclimate. For dioecious plants, the flowering period and fruit ripening period should be observed separately.

[0016] Specifically, the herbaceous indicator plant was reed, and the observation point was located near a weather station, with a focus on recording the peak leaf expansion period to reflect spring climate conditions.

[0017] Specifically, the crop was winter wheat, and the general rising stage was defined as when more than half of the wheat seedlings turned from creeping to upright and the ear differentiation entered the two-ridge stage. The data integration was based on standard farmland observation points.

[0018] The beneficial effects of this invention are as follows: (1) Implementation method focusing on the phenological period of peony itself: By integrating long-term historical observation data with phenological data of woody plants, herbaceous plants and crops, rich and representative samples are provided for analyzing the relationship between peony flowering and climate, significantly improving the accuracy of flowering period prediction; By defining the specific characteristics of phenological periods such as budding period and sprouting period and the criteria for judging the development stage of the population (such as the beginning and general development period), the development stage of peony can be accurately determined, laying a reliable basis for flowering period prediction; By analyzing the correlation between the initial flowering period of peony and the previous phenological period, key phenological periods are identified and locked for model construction, greatly improving the pertinence and efficiency of prediction; Based on the relevant analysis results, a peony initial flowering period prediction model is established using statistical regression tools, and the flowering time prediction is scientifically output, providing timely meteorological reference for peony cultural tourism activities; (2) Implementation method combining other plant phenological periods: By integrating the phenological period information of woody plants, herbaceous plants and crops, and combining the phenological data of peony, the environmental influencing factors are fully covered, and the universality of the prediction model is enhanced; by using correlation analysis methods to link the phenological period of peony with other plant phenological periods (such as the initial flowering period of white poplar, the initial flowering period of willow, the initial flowering period of elm, the leaf unfolding period of reed and the tillering period of winter wheat, etc.), a comprehensive prediction model is established, which significantly optimizes the accuracy of the prediction results and adapts to variable climate conditions. Attached Figure Description

[0019] To more clearly illustrate the technical solutions in the embodiments of this application, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below. Obviously, the drawings described below are only some embodiments of this application. For those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained based on these drawings.

[0020] Figure 1 This is a flowchart illustrating Example 1 of the phenological-based peony flowering period prediction method of the present invention; Figure 2 This is a flowchart illustrating Example 2 of the phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period according to the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0021] To make the technical problems, solutions, and beneficial effects of this invention clearer, the invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative and not intended to limit the invention.

[0022] This invention proposes a phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering time. This method fully utilizes phenological principles and deeply integrates detailed data on peony flowering periods spanning 60 years. This data comprehensively covers the flowering times of different peony varieties in different years under the local climate conditions of Heze, providing a rich and highly representative sample for studying the relationship between peony flowering and climatic factors. Simultaneously, it also deeply considers the correlation between the phenological periods of woody plants (such as white poplar, willow, and elm, whose deep root systems and well-developed branches are relatively sensitive to temperature and moisture changes, and whose phenological periods reflect temperature trends and influence peony growth), herbaceous plants (such as reeds, whose short growth cycles allow phenological changes to quickly reflect short-term climate conditions, and whose leaf unfolding time reflects the local spring climate's warmth and moisture status, providing an indication of peony growth), and crops (such as winter wheat, whose phenological period is influenced by both agricultural management measures and climatic factors, and whose leaf unfolding time comprehensively reflects the local spring climate and agricultural environment, and is related to peony growth). Based on this, a method for forecasting the flowering period of peonies is proposed, aiming to release timely forecasts of the peony flowering period and provide scientific meteorological reference for the Heze Peony Culture and Tourism Festival and for domestic and foreign tourists to enjoy the flowers.

[0023] This invention provides two implementation methods. The first implementation method focuses on the phenological stages of the peony itself, such as... Figure 1 As shown, the specific steps are as follows: Step 1: Obtain historical phenological data of peonies through field observation.

[0024] Step 2: Based on the acquired phenological data, determine whether the peony has entered the developmental stage, and specifically whether it is in the early stage of development or the general phenological stage (the general phenological stage is the period when a certain developmental stage is commonly observed in most plants). Specifically, when phenological characteristics appear on the observed plants, it indicates that the plant has entered the developmental stage corresponding to the phenological characteristics (for example, the appearance of the following budding stage characteristics indicates that the plant has entered the budding stage). The entry of the field population into the developmental stage is determined by the percentage of plants (stems) that have entered the developmental stage out of the total number of plants (stems) observed. The first observation shows that the percentage of the developmental stage is ≥10%, which is the beginning of a certain developmental stage. The percentage of the developmental stage is ≥35%, which is the general stage of the plant entering that phenological stage.

[0025] Peonies have different characteristics in each phenological stage. These phenological stages include budding, sprouting, budding, small bell-shaped buds, large bell-shaped buds, round buds showing color, flowering, leaf enlargement, scale bud differentiation, seed maturation, leaf fall, and physiological dormancy. When the plant shows the specified characteristics, it indicates that it has entered a certain phenological stage. During the budding stage, the overwintering bud scales on the plant begin to swell, and the outer scales gradually separate and unfold, revealing the lighter-colored part of the bud through the gaps between the scales; during the sprouting stage, when the scales crack open, the bud scales are exposed, and the tip of the bud shows a fresh color; during the budding stage, the bud scales crack, the flower bud grows scales, and the young leaves and terminal buds become visible, with the young branches about 3cm long; during the small bell stage, the outer bracts of the flower buds extend outward, and the diameter of the flower buds is generally between 1.5cm and 2.0cm; during the large bell stage, the outer bracts of the flower buds are fully open, the flower buds begin to enlarge, the new branches grow to about 15cm, the flower buds are above the leaf surface, and the diameter is generally between 2.0cm and 2.5cm; during the round bud color-transmitting stage... The flower buds are round and firm, resembling cotton bolls, but with a pointed tip, from which the flower's color can be seen. During the flowering period, the flower buds burst open, revealing their color, and the petals gradually open, progressing through the initial flowering stage, the peak flowering stage, and finally, the petals wither. During the leaf enlargement stage, after the petals wither, the leaves enlarge and thicken, and their color deepens to green or dark green. During the bud differentiation stage, after the flowers wither, new buds begin to develop in the leaf axils, and at this time, the buds begin to differentiate. During the seed maturation stage, the pods turn from green to yellow, becoming crab-yellow, indicating that the seeds are mature and ready for harvest. During the leaf fall stage, in autumn, the leaves begin to turn from green to yellow, and in autumn and winter, the leaves on the branches naturally fall off. During the physiological dormancy stage, the plant basically stops growing and gradually enters the physiological dormancy period.

[0026] Step 3: Count the dates of phenological periods. Based on the actual recorded dates of phenological periods, count the first day of the month as "1 day", the second day as "2 days", and so on, counting the number of days for each phenological period. For example, if the peony budding time was February 15th in 2015 and February 18th in 2016, then the number of days for the peony budding period was "15 days" in 2015 and "18 days" in 2016, and so on.

[0027] Step 4: Use correlation analysis to analyze the correlation between the initial flowering period of peony and the phenological period before flowering (the phenological period before flowering includes the budding period, sprouting period, budding period, small bell-shaped buds period, large bell-shaped buds period, and round bud coloring period).

[0028] Correlation analysis was used to statistically analyze the correlation between the phenological period of peony flowering and the pre-flowering phenological period, and the relationship between the initial flowering period and the pre-flowering phenological period was analyzed. The correlation coefficients were calculated as follows: ; (1) In the formula: The correlation coefficient; and This represents the average of the sample. and As variables. For example, formula (1) can be used to analyze the correlation between the initial flowering period and the budding period of peonies. (i=1, ..., n) represents the initial flowering period of peonies. (i=1, ..., n) represents the budding stage of peonies. and These are the average values ​​of the initial flowering period and the average value of the budding period of peonies, respectively, calculated based on the correlation coefficient significance test table. The correlation between the budding stage, sprouting stage, budding stage, small bell stage, large bell stage, round bud coloring stage and the peony's initial flowering stage was obtained. Based on this, the budding stage, sprouting stage, small bell stage and large bell stage were determined as the basis for constructing the peony's initial flowering stage prediction model.

[0029] Step 5: Input the historical number of days since the first bloom of peonies and the number of days during the budding, sprouting, budding, small bell-shaped, large bell-shaped, and round bud color development stages into SPSS software for regression analysis to construct a predictive model for the first bloom of peonies, as shown below: Y=0.2432-0.012X1+0.0575X2-0.8265X4+0.8638X5; (2) In the formula: Y is the initial flowering period of peony, X1 is the number of days in the budding period of peony, X2 is the number of days in the sprouting period of peony, X4 is the number of days in the small bell stage of peony, and X5 is the number of days in the large bell stage of peony.

[0030] Step 6: Based on the developmental stage judgment method in Step 2, determine whether the peony observed in real time has entered the developmental stage, and determine whether the peony is in the early stage of development or the general phenological stage (the general phenological stage is the period when a certain developmental stage is commonly seen on most plants); then, based on Step 3, calculate the number of days of real-time observation of the peony's budding stage, sprouting stage, small bell stage, and large bell stage, and substitute the number of days into formula (2) to predict the peony's initial flowering period. For example, Y=6 means that the predicted peony's initial flowering period this year will occur on April 6. If Y=-1, it means that the predicted peony's initial flowering period will occur on March 30. The base value of Y is the date that occurs in April. The peony's initial flowering period used when establishing the model is the date in April, so the calculated Y value is April 6.

[0031] The second embodiment of the present invention combines other plant phenological periods, such as Figure 2 As shown, the specific steps are as follows: Step 1: Establish a woody indicator plant observation system: Select temperature-sensitive species such as Populus tomentosa, Salix matsudana, and Ulmus pumila as core woody indicator plants (deep root systems and phenological periods that reflect temperature trends).

[0032] The selection of observation points should meet the following principles: the representativeness of the terrain, topography, soil, and vegetation should be considered, and it is not advisable to select them near houses or large bodies of water (except for aquatic woody plants) to avoid the influence of microclimate; the observation points should be stable and can be used for continuous observation for many years without being easily changed.

[0033] For each plant species, select 3-5 normally developing middle-aged trees. For dioecious plants such as *Salix matsudana*, observe male trees during the flowering period (record the unfolding of male inflorescences) and female trees during the fruit ripening period, and label them with the symbols ♂ or ♀. Focus on observing the bud opening period (defined as the bud scales splitting open to reveal fresh-colored tips) and the leaf unfolding period (the first batch of leaves fully unfolded). The determination of phenological periods should strictly follow the principle of "the appearance of phenological phenomena on one branch is considered the beginning of the period." Observation time should be prioritized in the afternoon, using telescopes or high-branch pruning shears to assist in high-altitude observation. After selecting the points, draw a map showing the relative position to the weather station and an environmental description, and keep it as an archive.

[0034] Step 2, conduct synchronous monitoring of herbaceous indicator plants: select reeds as herbaceous indicator plants (short growth cycle, leaf unfolding reflects short-term climate).

[0035] The observation site needs to be stable and sustainable for many years. An observation field should be established near the national meteorological station, and at least 5 plants should be marked to prevent damage by humans and animals. The focus should be on recording the budding period (new buds appearing at the base) and the peak leaf expansion period (more than half of the plants have fully unfolded leaves). The phenological period is determined by the first appearance of the buds, and the period when 50% of the plants have appeared is considered the general period. The observation time is usually in the afternoon, and observations should be conducted every other day when the phenological period is approaching.

[0036] Step 3, integrate crop phenological data: using the winter wheat tillering stage as the key indicator, record the general tillering stage (defined as more than half of the wheat seedlings turning from creeping to upright, at which time the spikelet differentiation enters the two-ridge stage) at standard farmland observation points. The phenological stage determination adopts the general stage standard similar to that of herbaceous plants. The observation point selection takes into account the representativeness of the agricultural environment, and the data is included in the historical database.

[0037] Step 4, Historical Data Integration and Correlation Analysis: The collected 60 years of phenological data are processed uniformly, converting the dates of peony flowering start, poplar flowering start, willow flowering start, elm flowering start, reed leaf expansion peak, and winter wheat tillering period into a day sequence (e.g., March 15th is recorded as 15). The following formula is used for analysis: ; (3) In the formula: The correlation coefficient; and This represents the average of the sample. and As variables. For example, formula (3) is used to analyze the correlation between the initial flowering period of peony and the initial flowering period of poplar. (i=1, ..., n) represents the initial flowering period of peonies. (i=1, ..., n) represents the initial flowering period of Populus tomentosa. and The values ​​are the average initial flowering dates of peony and poplar, respectively. Based on the phenological series from 1981 to 2025, the results were calculated. =0.5767, see the correlation coefficient significance test table. Therefore, the correlation between the initial flowering period of peony and the initial flowering period of white poplar reached a highly significant value of 0.001. Similarly, the correlation between the initial flowering period of peony and other plants was determined. The results show that the phenological periods of initial flowering of white poplar, willow, elm, reed leaf unfolding, and winter wheat tillering have an indicative role in predicting the initial flowering period of peony.

[0038] Step 5: Construct a multiple regression prediction model: Input the historical flowering dates of peonies, white poplars, willows, elms, reeds, and winter wheat tillering days into SPSS software for regression analysis to construct a prediction model for the peony flowering date, as shown below: Y=1.4767-0.1191X1+0.2733X2+0.092X3+0.2411X4+0.2272X5; (4) In the formula, Y represents the initial flowering period of peony, X1 represents the initial flowering period of white poplar, X2 represents the initial flowering period of willow, X3 represents the initial flowering period of elm, X4 represents the leaf unfolding period of reed, and X5 represents the tillering period of winter wheat.

[0039] Step 6: Calculate the number of days for the real-time observed flowering period of peony, poplar, willow, elm, reed leaf unfolding period, and winter wheat growth period based on step 3, and then use the number of days in formula (4) to predict the flowering period of peony.

[0040] The beneficial effects of this invention are as follows: (1) Implementation method focusing on the phenological period of peony itself: By defining the specific characteristics of phenological periods such as budding period and sprouting period and the criteria for judging the development stage of the population (such as the beginning and general development period), the development stage of peony can be accurately determined, laying a reliable basis for the prediction of flowering period; by analyzing the correlation between the beginning flowering period of peony and the previous phenological period, key phenological periods can be identified and locked for model construction, which greatly improves the pertinence and efficiency of prediction; based on the relevant analysis results, a prediction model for the beginning flowering period of peony can be established using statistical regression tools, and the prediction of flowering time can be scientifically output, providing timely meteorological reference for peony cultural tourism activities; (2) Implementation method combining other plant phenological periods: By integrating the phenological period information of woody plants, herbaceous plants and crops, and combining peony phenological data, the environmental influencing factors are fully covered, and the universality of the prediction model is enhanced; by using correlation analysis methods to link the peony flowering period with other plant phenological periods (such as the flowering period of white poplar, the leaf unfolding period of reed, etc.), a comprehensive prediction model is established, which significantly optimizes the accuracy of the prediction results and adapts to variable climate conditions.

[0041] The above are merely preferred embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention. Any modifications, equivalent substitutions, and improvements made within the spirit and principles of the present invention should be included within the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

1. A phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period, characterized in that, include: Acquire historical phenological data of peonies, including the budding stage, sprouting stage, budding stage, small bell stage, large bell stage, round bud coloring stage, flowering stage, leaf enlargement stage, scale bud differentiation stage, seed maturity stage, leaf fall stage, and physiological dormancy stage; Based on the phenological data, it is determined whether the peony has entered the developmental stage, and the specific stage of the developmental stage is determined, including the initial stage and the general stage; Count the dates of each phenological period, convert the dates into a series of days, and calculate the number of days based on the first day of the month. The correlation between the initial flowering period and the phenological period before flowering of peony was analyzed. The phenological period before flowering includes the budding period, sprouting period, budding period, small bell-shaped buds period, large bell-shaped buds period, and round bud coloring period. The key phenological periods were determined through correlation analysis. A statistical regression model is constructed based on the number of days in the key phenological period; The model described above is used to predict the initial flowering period of peonies.

2. The phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The initial period is defined as the percentage of observed phenological characteristics in the observed plants reaching 10%, and the general period is defined as the percentage reaching 35%.

3. The phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period as described in claim 1, characterized in that, When determining the specific stage of development, the phenological characteristics are defined as follows: during the budding stage, the overwintering buds swell and the scales separate; during the sprouting stage, the buds emerge and the tops show color; during the budding stage, the flower buds grow scales and the young branches grow; during the small bell stage, the outer bracts of the flower buds open and the diameter reaches a specific range; during the large bell stage, the flower buds enlarge and the new branches extend; during the round bud color-transmitting stage, the flower buds are round and firm and the tops show color.

4. The phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The correlation analysis calculates the correlation between the number of days of the initial flowering period of peony and the number of days of the phenological period before each flowering period in order to identify key phenological periods, which include the budding period, sprouting period, small bell period, and large bell period.

5. The phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period as described in claim 1, characterized in that, The statistical regression model is constructed based on the number of days in the budding period, the sprouting period, the small bell-shaped period, and the large bell-shaped period. A prediction equation is established through regression analysis, and the model outputs a predicted value for the initial flowering period.

6. The phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period as described in claim 1, characterized in that, When the application model predicts the initial flowering period, it observes the peony entering the developmental stage in real time, calculates the number of days in the real-time budding period, sprouting period, small bell stage, and large bell stage, and inputs the results into the model to obtain the prediction results.

7. A phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period, characterized in that, include: Establish a woody indicator plant observation system, select temperature-sensitive woody plants as indicator plants, set up observation points and select normally developing plants, focus on observing the bud opening period and leaf expansion period, and determine the phenological period by the first appearance of phenological phenomena on the branches; Conduct synchronous monitoring of herbaceous indicator plants, select herbaceous plants that reflect short-term climate, set up observation fields to mark plants, record the budding period and the peak leaf expansion period, and determine the phenological period by the first appearance as the beginning period or the appearance of half of the plants as the general period; Integrate crop phenological data, using the general emergence period as a key indicator, and record the emergence period; Integrate historical phenological data, including the initial flowering period of peonies, the phenological periods of woody plants, the phenological periods of herbaceous plants, and the phenological periods of crops, and convert the dates into a series of days; The correlation between the initial flowering period of peony and the phenological periods of the aforementioned woody plants, herbaceous plants, and crops was analyzed. A multiple regression model was constructed based on correlation analysis; The model described above is used to predict the initial flowering period of peonies.

8. The phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period as described in claim 7, characterized in that, The woody indicator plants included Populus tomentosa, Salix matsudana, and Ulmus pumila. The observations took into account the representativeness of the topography and avoided the influence of microclimate. For dioecious plants, the flowering period and fruit ripening period were observed separately.

9. The phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period as described in claim 7, characterized in that, The herbaceous indicator plant is reed. The observation point is near a meteorological station, and the focus is on recording the peak leaf expansion period to reflect spring climate conditions.

10. The phenological-based method for predicting peony flowering period as described in claim 7, characterized in that, The crop in question is winter wheat. The general emergence stage is defined as when more than half of the wheat seedlings turn from creeping to upright and the spikelet differentiation enters the two-ridge stage. The data integration is based on standard farmland observation points.

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