一种基于多模型融合的飞机尾涡预测方法

By combining multi-model fusion and deep learning techniques with traditional physical models and neural networks, the short-term and long-term characteristics of wake vortices are identified, solving the problems of low accuracy and efficiency in wake vortex prediction and achieving reliable prediction of dynamic wake intervals.

CN122242273BActive Publication Date: 2026-07-17CIVIL AVIATION UNIV OF CHINA

Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Patents(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
CIVIL AVIATION UNIV OF CHINA
Filing Date
2026-04-28
Publication Date
2026-07-17

AI Technical Summary

Technical Problem

Existing technologies for predicting wake vortices suffer from low accuracy and slow computational efficiency. In particular, in the context of flight takeoffs and landings at large, busy airports, it is difficult to achieve dynamic wake vortex spacing, which affects aircraft operating efficiency and airport capacity.

Method used

A multi-model fusion approach is adopted, combining lidar data and various traditional physical models. Convolutional neural networks (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory neural networks (BiLSTM) are used to identify the short-term and long-term characteristics of the wake vortex. Bayesian optimization and Monte Carlo dropout techniques are used to improve the prediction accuracy and interpretability.

Benefits of technology

It improves the accuracy and efficiency of wake vortex prediction, provides an interpretable safety margin range in airport environments with high real-time requirements, and supports the implementation of dynamic wake separation.

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Abstract

本发明涉及空中交通管理技术领域,公开了一种基于多模型融合的飞机尾涡预测方法,通过多个尾涡物理模型加权融合少量雷达数据,构建高置信度的无量纲演化数据集;构建CNN‑BiLSTM深度耦合网络模型,结合贝叶斯优化算法进行超参数全局自动寻优并完成模型训练;输入实时航班与气象特征进行单次前向传播输出确定性演化轨迹,并在推断阶段结合蒙特卡罗丢弃技术生成动态概率置信区间。本发明大幅提升了长期预测精度与实时推理效率,为机场动态化尾流间隔的安全缩减与风险评估提供了可量化的科学安全裕度。
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