Real-time data periodic updating method and system based on state estimation

Abstract

This invention provides a method and system for real-time periodic data updates based on state estimation, belonging to the field of data updates; it solves the problem of low efficiency in power data updates; specifically as follows: Historical electricity consumption data is acquired to estimate expected power consumption, and the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipality are calculated; based on the expected power consumption of each municipality, the sufficiency of active and reactive power at the power supply end is determined; if active power is insufficient, the power or power factor angle at the power supply end is adjusted; if reactive power is insufficient, reactive power is supplemented at the power supply end; if active and reactive power are sufficient, the actual power transmitted from the power supply end to each substation is adjusted based on the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipality and the connection relationship between each municipality and the substation; this invention, by acquiring, analyzing, and modeling electricity consumption and transmission data of the target area, adjusts and updates the electricity consumption and power supply of the target area in real time, ensuring electricity safety.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to a real-time data periodic update method and system based on state estimation, and pertains to the field of data update. Background Technology

[0002] Existing methods or systems for updating real-time power supply data have the following shortcomings:

[0003] High complexity of data fusion and processing: Some existing data update methods or systems based on the new power system full voltage level simulation calculation platform based on real-time measurement have significant advantages in improving data quality and reliability, but their data fusion and processing process is extremely complex, especially in the access, verification, interpolation and fusion of multiple data, which requires highly specialized technical and algorithm support. This not only increases the difficulty of system implementation, but also increases operation and maintenance costs.

[0004] The problem of balancing computational speed: Existing data update systems employ various advanced power flow calculation methods to improve convergence and accuracy. However, in practical applications, there is often a difficult-to-balance contradiction between algorithm convergence and computational speed. Some algorithms may require multiple iterations to reach the convergence condition, resulting in a significant increase in computation time.

[0005] The challenges of widespread adoption are significant: some data update methods rely on artificial intelligence to construct data update models, but these models often need to cover all voltage levels from high-voltage transmission to low-voltage distribution when performing data extrapolation, involving a large number of devices and parameters. This requires modelers to have extensive professional knowledge and experience. At the same time, with the continuous changes in the power grid structure and the upgrading of equipment, the models need to be updated and calibrated regularly to ensure their accuracy and timeliness. This process is not only time-consuming and labor-intensive, but may also lead to model errors due to human factors, affecting the reliability of the calculation results and hindering widespread adoption. Summary of the Invention

[0006] To address the shortcomings of existing technologies, the present invention aims to provide a method and system for periodically updating real-time data based on state estimation, thereby solving the problem of low efficiency in updating power data.

[0007] To achieve the above objectives, the present invention provides the following technical solution: a real-time data periodic update method based on state estimation includes:

[0008] Obtain historical electricity consumption data for each district in the target area, and estimate the expected power consumption of each district based on the historical electricity consumption data; obtain the historical active power, historical supply voltage and historical voltage phase of the power supply end in the target area, and calculate the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each district based on the historical electricity consumption data of each district.

[0009] The system acquires the active and reactive power of the power supply in real time; based on the expected power consumption of each municipal district, it determines whether the active and reactive power of the power supply is sufficient; if the active power is insufficient, it adjusts the power or power factor angle of the power supply; if the reactive power is insufficient, it supplements the power supply; if the active and reactive power are sufficient, it adjusts the actual power delivered by the power supply to each substation based on the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipal district and the connection relationship between each municipal district and the substation.

[0010] Real-time monitoring of electricity consumption changes in each municipal district, adjustment of power supply power and power factor, and actual power transmitted from the power supply to each substation. Based on the actual adjustment results of the power supply and each substation, real-time updates of electricity consumption and transmission in the target area.

[0011] Furthermore, the specific steps for calculating the expected power consumption are as follows:

[0012] Obtain the average electricity consumption of the first municipal district. （1，0） ~he （3，23） And calculate the mean ahe, the difference order d, the autoregressive parameter p, and the moving average parameter q;

[0013] Calculate the autocorrelation coefficient φ （1） ~φ （p） and moving average coefficient θ （1） ~θ （q） ;

[0014] Calculate he （1，0） ~he （3，23） White noise;

[0015] with he （1，23） Based on this, calculate he sequentially. （1，23） The d-th order difference from the first hour to the first p hours is then sequentially compared with φ. （1） ~φ （p） Multiply and then sum to get AR(he) （1，23） );

[0016] Extract he （1，23） The corresponding white noise ε （1,23） Extract he （1，23） The white noise corresponding to the previous 1 hour to the previous p hours, and sequentially compared with θ （1） ~θ （q） Multiply and then sum to get MA (he （1，23） );

[0017] Will AR (he （1，23） ), MA (he （1，23） ), he （1，23） and ε （1,23）Added together, the expected electricity consumption qe at 0:00 for the first municipal district （0） ;

[0018] Calculate the expected electricity consumption qe of the first municipal district from 1 to 23 hours. （1） ~qe （23） and initial active power qp （0） ~qp （23） ;

[0019] Calculate the expected electricity consumption (te) of the first municipal district from 0:00 to 23:00 on the last day. （1，0） ~te （1，23） ;

[0020] Extract the average hourly electricity consumption of the first municipal district over the past day, and calculate the weighted deviation coefficient qd between the actual and predicted values; then calculate qp accordingly. （0） ~qp （23） The product of qd and qd yields the expected active power pp of the first municipal district from 0 to 23 hours. （0） ~pp （23） ;

[0021] Calculate the expected active power and expected reactive power of the first to the mnth municipal districts.

[0022] Furthermore, the specific steps for calculating the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance are as follows:

[0023] Obtain the historical active power gP at the power supply end （1,0） Historical power supply voltage gU （1,0） Historical power supply voltage phase uθ （s） ;

[0024] Obtain the average voltage hu of the first municipal district （1,0） Voltage phase angle uθ （1,0） Current hi （1,0） and the current phase angle iθ （1,0） Calculate the voltage drop ΔU;

[0025] Calculate gP （1,0） The difference hop between the average active power of the 2nd to mnth municipal districts;

[0026] Obtain the historical supply current gI at the power supply terminal （1,0） Historical power supply current phase iθ （s） Calculate the line current I （lin） ;

[0027] Calculate I （lin） Dividing by ΔU, we obtain the equivalent admittance Y of the first municipal district at 0:00 on the last day. （1,0） Calculate Y （1,0）The reciprocal of the first municipal district is used to obtain the equivalent impedance Z at 0:00 on the last day. （1,0） ;

[0028] Calculate the equivalent admittance Y of the first municipal district from 0:00 on the past three days to 23:00 on the past day. （3,0） ~Y （1,23） Equivalent impedance Z （3,0） ~Z （1,23） ;

[0029] Calculate Y （3,0） ~Y （1,23） The average value is used as the equivalent admittance dY of the first municipal district. （1） ;

[0030] Calculate Z （3,0） ~Z （1,23） The average value is used as the equivalent impedance dZ of the first municipal district. （1） ;

[0031] Calculate the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of the 2nd to mnth municipal districts.

[0032] Furthermore, the steps to determine whether the active and reactive power at the power supply end are sufficient and to formulate different adjustment strategies are as follows:

[0033] Obtain the actual active power yP at the power supply terminal when it is 0. （0） and reactive power yQ （0） ;

[0034] Calculate the sum of expected work (ap) for the first to the mnth municipal districts at time 0. （0） And the expectation of no work and aq （0） ;

[0035] Comparison yP （0） with ap （0） The size, and yQ （0） with aq （0） The magnitude of the active and reactive power at the power supply end is used to determine whether they are sufficient.

[0036] If yP （0） <ap （0） If the power supply is insufficient, the power or power factor angle of the power supply should be adjusted.

[0037] According to yP （0） and yQ （0） Calculate the initial power factor angle β at the power supply terminal. （old） ;

[0038] yP （0） Adjust to AP （0） , keep yQ unchanged （0） According to AP（0） Calculate the new power factor angle β （new） ;

[0039] Let β remain unchanged （old） According to AP （0） Calculate the new reactive power yQ （new） ;

[0040] Calculate β （new） relative to β （old） The coefficient of variation f （1） :

[0041] ;

[0042] Calculate yQ （new） Compared to yQ （0） The coefficient of change f （2） :

[0043] ;

[0044] Compare f （1） with f （2） Adjust the size of the reactive power or power factor angle at the power supply end;

[0045] If f （1） ≤f （2） Then adjust the power factor angle at the power supply end to β. （new） ;

[0046] If f （1） >f （2） Then adjust the reactive power at the power supply end to yQ. （new） .

[0047] Furthermore, the adjustment strategy also includes:

[0048] If yQ （0） <aq （0） If the reactive power at the power supply end is insufficient, then reactive power supplementation should be carried out at the power supply end.

[0049] Obtain the initial power factor angle β at the power supply end （old） Construct the equation:

[0050] ;

[0051] Calculate the reactive power Q after supplementation at the power supply end. （add） The reactive power supplemented at the power supply end is calculated as ΔQ: .

[0052] Furthermore, the adjustment strategy also includes:

[0053] If yP （0）≥ap （0） And yQ （0） ≥aq （0） If the active and reactive power of the power supply end is sufficient, the actual power delivered by the power supply end to each substation will be adjusted according to the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipal district and the connection between each municipal district and the substation.

[0054] Adjust the actual power supplied from the power supply end to the first municipal district;

[0055] Obtain the equivalent admittance dY of the first municipal district （1） Equivalent impedance dZ （1） Expected active power qp （0） And expected reactive power qq （0） ;

[0056] Obtain the effective voltage value Ui at the grid connection point of the first municipal district. （1） Calculate the basic power supply Se from the power station to the first municipal district. （1） :

[0057] ;

[0058] Among them, Ii （1） The equivalent transmission current of the first municipal district is:

[0059] j represents the imaginary unit;

[0060] The substation directly connected to the power grid of the first municipal district is taken as the target substation. Based on the connection relationship between the first municipal district and the target substation, the minimum receiving power of the target substation is calculated, and the actual power transmitted by each substation at the power supply end is adjusted.

[0061] Scenario 1: If the target substation is only connected to the first municipal district, then obtain the admittance Y of the transmission line from the first municipal district to the target substation. （L） ;

[0062] Obtain the rated voltage Uw of the target substation and calculate the minimum received power P of the target substation. （1，res） :

[0063] ;

[0064] Scenario 2: If the target substation is connected to the first municipal district and other municipal districts, count the number of other municipal districts ot and calculate the minimum received power P. （2，res） ;

[0065] Scenario 3: If multiple substations are connected to the first municipal district, calculate the minimum received power P of the target substation. （3，res） .

[0066] Furthermore, the second scenario includes:

[0067] Obtain the admittance YL of the transmission lines from the 1st to the otth other municipal districts to the target substation. （1） ~YL （ot） and the rated voltage Uw of the 1st to otth other municipal districts （1） ~Uw （ot） ;

[0068] P （1，res） In the calculation formula, Uw is replaced with Uw in sequence. （1） ~Uw （ot） Y （L） Replace with YL in sequence （1） ~YL （ot） Calculate the minimum received power PL of the first to the otth other municipal districts relative to the target municipal district. （1） ~PL （ot） :

[0069] Calculate PL （1） ~PL （ot） and P （1，res） The sum of these values ​​is used as the minimum received power P of the target substation. （2，res） .

[0070] Furthermore, scenario three includes:

[0071] Treat the first municipal district as a substation, and treat multiple substations connected to the first municipal district as multiple municipal districts, repeating PL. （1） The inverse operation is used to calculate the minimum received power P of the target substation. （3，res） ;

[0072] Extract P （1，res） P （2，res） and P （3，res） The maximum value Px in （res） , will Se （1） With Px （res） The larger value in the range is taken as the receiving power of the target substation;

[0073] Determine the receiving power of subsequent substations that are directly and indirectly connected to the target substation, until the receiving power of the substation directly connected to the power supply end is determined.

[0074] The actual power transmitted from the power supply end to the first municipal district is adjusted to: the power received by the substation directly connected to the power supply end;

[0075] Adjust the actual power supplied from the power supply end to the first municipal district from 2 to 23 hours and the actual power supplied from the power supply end to the second to the mnth municipal districts from 0 to 23 hours.

[0076] Real-time data periodic update systems based on state estimation include:

[0077] Data acquisition model: used to acquire historical electricity consumption data of each municipal district in the target area, and to estimate the expected power consumption of each municipal district based on the historical electricity consumption data;

[0078] Data analysis module: used to obtain historical active power, historical supply voltage and historical voltage phase of the power supply end of the target area, and calculate the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipal district based on the historical electricity consumption data of each municipal district;

[0079] Power supply regulation module: used to acquire the active and reactive power of the power supply end in real time; determine whether the active and reactive power of the power supply end is sufficient based on the expected power consumption of each municipal district; if the active power is insufficient, adjust the power or power factor angle of the power supply end; if the reactive power is insufficient, supplement the reactive power of the power supply end; if the active and reactive power are sufficient, adjust the actual power delivered by the power supply end to each substation based on the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipal district and the connection between each municipal district and the substation.

[0080] Continuous adjustment module: Used to monitor the changes in electricity consumption in each municipal district in real time, and adjust the power and power factor of the power supply end as well as the actual power transmitted from the power supply end to each substation. Based on the actual adjustment results of the power supply end and each substation, the electricity consumption and transmission volume of the target area are updated in real time.

[0081] Compared with the prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are:

[0082] Improving data reliability: This invention integrates data from different power nodes based on real-time measured power data. It uses a data fitting method based on topological, electrical, and numerical relationships to ensure data reliability, providing support for subsequent power flow calculations, model building, and data extrapolation. This avoids calculation deviations and decision-making errors caused by data errors, thereby improving the operating efficiency and safety of the power system.

[0083] Achieving unified scheduling of power supply: Based on the difference analysis between measured data and predicted data, this invention adjusts the power supply from the target area to the municipal area in real time. It not only considers the grid structure, equipment parameters, power supply and load characteristics of the main grid and distribution network, but also dynamically updates the model parameters through real-time data, ensuring the accuracy and timeliness of the model.

[0084] Power supply decision optimization: This invention considers the spatiotemporal distribution of electricity consumption and load access in each municipal district, and simulates the dynamic power flow changes of each power node in response to changes in electricity consumption in the municipal district. It provides a scientific basis for power grid planning and operation scheduling, and also improves the operating efficiency and security of the power system. Attached Figure Description

[0085] Other features, objects, and advantages of the invention will become more apparent from the following detailed description of non-limiting embodiments with reference to the accompanying drawings:

[0086] Figure 1 This is a schematic diagram of the method of the present invention;

[0087] Figure 2 This is a schematic diagram of the system of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0088] To make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more apparent and understandable, the present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0089] Example 1

[0090] Please see Figure 1 Real-time data periodic update methods based on state estimation include:

[0091] Step S1: Obtain historical electricity consumption data (for the past three days) for each district in the target area, and estimate the expected power consumption of each district based on the historical electricity consumption data; obtain the historical active power, historical supply voltage and historical voltage phase of the power supply end in the target area (for the past three days), and calculate the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each district based on the historical electricity consumption data of each district.

[0092] It should be noted that, in this invention, "target area" refers to a city-level area that uses this invention (a method and system for periodically updating real-time data based on state estimation) to update the electricity consumption status; "power supply end" refers to a large generator set or large power grid provided by the power bureau or power plant to supply power to the target area.

[0093] The specific steps of step S1 are as follows:

[0094] Expected power consumption includes: expected active power and expected reactive power;

[0095] Obtain the number of municipal districts (mn) in the target region;

[0096] Obtain the average hourly electricity consumption of the first municipal district over the past three days. （1，0） ~he （3，23） This serves as historical electricity consumption data;

[0097] Based on the ARIMA model, calculate he （1，0） ~he （3，23） The difference order d, the autoregressive parameter p, and the moving average parameter q;

[0098] Calculate the autocorrelation coefficient φ（1） ~φ （p） and the moving average coefficients θ of orders 1 to q （1） ~θ （q） ;

[0099] Calculate he （1，0） ~he （3，23） The average value ahe, then use he （1，0） ~he （3，23） Subtracting ahe in sequence, we get (he) （1，0） ~he （3，23） White noise;

[0100] Based on the average electricity consumption at 11 PM in the past day （1，23） Based on this, calculate he sequentially. （1，23） The d-th order difference from the first hour to the first p hours is then sequentially compared with φ. （1） ~φ （p） Multiply and then sum to get AR(he) （1，23） );

[0101] Extract he （1，23） The corresponding white noise ε （1,23） Extract he （1，23） The white noise corresponding to the previous 1 hour to the previous p hours, and sequentially compared with θ （1） ~θ （q） Multiply and then sum to get MA (he （1，23） );

[0102] Will AR (he （1，23） ), MA (he （1，23） ), he （1，23） and ε （1,23） Added together, the expected electricity consumption qe at 0:00 in the first municipal district (the next day) （0） ;

[0103] qe （1） Integrating into he （1，0） ~he （3，23） In China, with qe （1） Based on this, repeat qe （0） The calculation process involves calculating the expected electricity consumption (qe) of the first municipal district (on the next day) from 1:00 AM to 11:00 PM. （1） ~qe （23） ;

[0104] Based on the expected electricity consumption qe （0） ~qe （23） Calculate the initial target active power qp of the first municipal district (for the next day) from 0:00 to 23:00. （0） ~qp （23） ;

[0105] Repeat qp（0） ~qp （23） The calculation process is based on the average hourly electricity consumption of the first municipal district over the past two days. （1，0） ~he （2，23） Calculate the expected electricity consumption (te) of the first municipal district from 0:00 to 23:00 on the last day. （1，0） ~te （1，23） ;

[0106] Extract the average hourly electricity consumption of the first municipal district over the past day. （1，0） ~he （1，23） Calculate he in sequence （1，0） ~he （1，23） relative to te （1，0） ~te （1，23） The ratio (i.e., the ratio of the two) （1，0） ~he （1，23） Calculate the denominator in sequence, te （1，0） ~te （1，23） (Calculate the numerator sequentially), which serves as the coefficient of deviation between the actual and predicted values ​​for the (first municipal district). （0） ~de （23） ;

[0107] Extract de （0） ~de （23） The maximum value in de （max） With minimum value de （min） Calculate de in sequence （0） ~de （23） with de （min） The difference di （0） ~di （23） , calculate de （max） with de （min） The difference dm, calculate di in sequence （0） ~di （23） The ratio relative to dm (i.e., di) （0） ~di （23） (Calculate the denominator and numerator respectively, and use dm as the deviation coefficient de) （0） ~de （23） The weight value;

[0108] Calculate the deviation coefficient de （0） ~de （23） The weighted bias coefficient qd is obtained by summing the products of the corresponding weight values.

[0109] Calculate qp sequentially （0） ~qp （23） The product of qd and qd yields the expected active power pp of the first municipal district (on the next day) from 0 to 23 hours. （0） ~pp （23） ;

[0110] Obtain the average voltage, voltage phase angle, current, and current phase angle per hour for the first municipal district's grid connection point over the past three days. Calculate the average reactive power hq per hour for the first municipal district's grid connection point over the past three days. （1，0） ~hq （3，23） ;

[0111] Repeat pp （0） ~pp （23） The calculation process, based on hq （1，0） ~hq （3，23） Calculate the expected reactive power pq of the first municipal district (for the next day) from 0 to 23 hours. （0） ~pq （23） ;

[0112] Repeat pp （0） ~pp （23） and pq （0） ~pq （23） The calculation process,

[0113] Obtain the historical active power gP of the power supply at 0:00 on the last day. （1,0） Historical power supply voltage gU （1,0） Historical power supply voltage phase uθ （s） ;

[0114] The average voltage (hu) at the first municipal district's power grid connection point was obtained at 00:00 on the previous day. （1,0） Voltage phase angle uθ （1,0） Current hi （1,0） and the current phase angle iθ （1,0） ;

[0115] Calculate the average active power (op) at the grid connection point of the first municipal district at 0:00 on the nearest day. （1,0） Average reactive power oq （1,0） ;

[0116] Calculate the average active power op at the grid connection points of the 2nd to mnth municipal districts at 0:00 on the nearest day. （2,0） ~op （mn,0） Average reactive power oq （1,0） ~oq （mn,0） ;

[0117] Calculate op （2,0） ~op （mn,0） and aop, calculate gP （1,0） The difference between AOP and hop;

[0118] According to gU （1,0） and uθ （s） and hu （1,0） and uθ （1,0）Calculate the voltage drop ΔU;

[0119] Obtain the historical power supply current gI at the power supply terminal at 0:00 of the past day. （1,0） Historical power supply current phase iθ （s） ;

[0120] According to gI （1,0） and iθ （s） and hu （1,0） and iθ （1,0） Calculate the line current I （lin） ;

[0121] Calculate I （lin） Dividing by ΔU, we obtain the equivalent admittance Y of the first municipal district at 0:00 on the last day. （1,0） Calculate Y （1,0） The reciprocal of the first municipal district is used to obtain the equivalent impedance Z at 0:00 on the last day. （1,0） ;

[0122] The calculation process is repeated to calculate the equivalent admittance Y of the first municipal district from 0:00 on the past three days to 23:00 on the past day. （3,0） ~Y （1,23） Equivalent impedance Z （3,0） ~Z （1,23） ;

[0123] Calculate Y （3,0） ~Y （1,23） The average value is used as the equivalent admittance dY of the first municipal district. （1） ;

[0124] Calculate Z （3,0） ~Z （1,23） The average value is used as the equivalent impedance dZ of the first municipal district. （1） ;

[0125] Repeat dY （1） With dZ （1） The calculation process is as follows: calculate the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of the 2nd to mnth municipal districts.

[0126] Step S2: Obtain the active and reactive power of the power supply in real time; determine whether the active and reactive power of the power supply is sufficient based on the expected power consumption of each municipal district; if the active power is insufficient, adjust the power or power factor angle of the power supply; if the reactive power is insufficient, supplement the power supply with reactive power; if the active and reactive power are sufficient, adjust the actual power delivered by the power supply to each substation based on the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipal district and the connection relationship between each municipal district and the substation.

[0127] The specific steps of step S2 are as follows:

[0128] Obtain the actual active power yP at the power supply terminal when it is 0. （0） and reactive power yQ （0） ;

[0129] Calculate the sum of expected work (ap) for the first to the mnth municipal districts at time 0. （0） And the expectation of no work and aq （0） ;

[0130] Comparison yP （0） with ap （0） The size, and yQ （0） with aq （0） The magnitude of the active and reactive power at the power supply end is used to determine whether the active and reactive power are sufficient, and different adjustment strategies are formulated accordingly.

[0131] Strategy 1: If yP （0） <ap （0） This indicates that the active power at the power supply end is insufficient, compared to yQ. （0） and aq （0） The magnitude of the reactive power at the power supply end is used to determine whether the reactive power is sufficient, and different adjustment strategies are implemented accordingly.

[0132] Scenario a: yQ （0） ≥aq （0） The reactive power at the power supply end is sufficient; adjust the reactive power or power factor angle at the power supply end.

[0133] According to yP （0） and yQ （0） Calculate the initial power factor angle β at the power supply terminal. （old） ;

[0134] yP （0） Adjust to AP （0） , keep yQ unchanged （0） According to AP （0） Calculate the new power factor angle β （new） ;

[0135] Let β remain unchanged （old） According to AP （0） Calculate the new reactive power yQ （new） ;

[0136] Calculate β （new） relative to β （old） The coefficient of change f （1） :

[0137] ;

[0138] Calculate yQ （new） Compared to yQ （0） The coefficient of change f （2） :

[0139] ;

[0140] Compare f （1） with f （2） Adjust the size of the reactive power or power factor angle at the power supply end;

[0141] If f （1） ≤f （2） Then adjust the power factor angle at the power supply end to β. （new） ;

[0142] If f （1） >f （2） Then adjust the reactive power at the power supply end to yQ. （new） ;

[0143] Scenario b: yQ （0） <aq （0） The reactive power at the power supply end is sufficient; adjust the active and reactive power at the power supply end.

[0144] Calculate the power deficit P of the active power at the power supply end of the target area. （dif） P （dif） =ap （0） -yP （0） The reactive power deficit Q （dif） Q （dif） =aq （0） -yQ （0） ;

[0145] Obtain the maximum apparent power S at the power supply end of the (target area) （max） Calculate the equivalent apparent power S of the entire municipal area (i.e., the electricity consumption end). （equ） :

[0146] ;

[0147] Compare S （max） With S （equ） The size of the power supply determines whether the power supply terminal is connected to the power grid of other areas (i.e., other city-level areas that are not the "target area");

[0148] Type 1: If S （max） <S （equ） This approach does not change the existing active and reactive power at the (target area) power supply end, but directly introduces power from other regions' power grids to supplement the (target area) power supply end with P. （dif） active power and Q （dif） reactive power;

[0149] Type 2: If S （max） ≥S （equ）First, adjust the active power of the power supply at the (target area) end to AP. （0） Calculate the residual reactive power yQ at the power supply end of the target area. （res） :

[0150] ;

[0151] Then, power grids from other regions are introduced to supplement the power supply to the (target area). （ext） :

[0152] ;

[0153] Strategy 2: If yQ （0） <aq （0） This indicates insufficient reactive power at the power supply end. Compare yP （0） and AP （0） Adjust the size of the power supply to control the active or reactive power at the power supply end;

[0154] If yP （0） ≥ap （0） If the active power at the power supply end is insufficient, only reactive power supplementation is provided at the power supply end.

[0155] Obtain the initial power factor angle β at the power supply end （old） Construct the equation:

[0156] ;

[0157] Calculate the reactive power Q after supplementation at the power supply end. （add） The reactive power supplemented at the power supply end is calculated as ΔQ: ;

[0158] If yP （0） <ap （0） Then repeat the adjustment method in case b above, and adjust the active power and reactive power at the power supply end;

[0159] Strategy 3: If yP （0） ≥ap （0） And yQ （0） ≥aq （0） If the active and reactive power of the power supply end is sufficient, the actual power delivered by the power supply end to each substation will be adjusted according to the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipal district and the connection between each municipal district and the substation.

[0160] Adjust the actual power supplied from the power supply end to the first municipal district;

[0161] Obtain the equivalent admittance dY of the first municipal district （1） Equivalent impedance dZ （1） Expected active power qp（0） And expected reactive power qq （0） ;

[0162] (At 0 o'clock) Obtain the effective voltage value Ui at the grid connection point of the first municipal district. （1） Calculate the basic power supply Se from the power station to the first municipal district. （1） :

[0163] ;

[0164] Among them, Ii （1） The equivalent transmission current of the first municipal district is:

[0165] j represents the imaginary unit;

[0166] The substation directly connected to the power grid of the first municipal district is taken as the target substation. Based on the connection relationship between the first municipal district and the target substation, the minimum receiving power of the target substation is calculated, and the actual power transmitted by each substation at the power supply end is adjusted.

[0167] Scenario 1: If the target substation is only connected to the first municipal district (i.e., a "one-to-one" relationship), then obtain the admittance Y of the transmission line from the first municipal district to the target substation. （L） ;

[0168] Obtain the rated voltage Uw of the target substation and calculate the minimum received power P of the target substation. （1，res） :

[0169] ;

[0170] Scenario 2: If the target substation is connected to the first municipal district and other municipal districts (i.e., a "one-to-many" relationship), then count the number of other municipal districts (excluding the first municipal district) ot.

[0171] Obtain the admittance YL of the transmission lines from the 1st to the otth other municipal districts to the target substation. （1） ~YL （ot） and the rated voltage Uw of the 1st to otth other municipal districts （1） ~Uw （ot） ;

[0172] P （1，res） In the calculation formula, Uw is replaced with Uw in sequence. （1） ~Uw （ot） Y （L） Replace with YL in sequence （1） ~YL （ot） Calculate the minimum received power PL of the first to the otth other municipal districts relative to the target municipal district. （1）~PL （ot） :

[0173] Calculate PL （1） ~PL （ot） and P （1，res） The sum of these values ​​is used as the minimum received power P of the target substation. （2，res） ;

[0174] Scenario 3: If multiple substations are connected to the first municipal district (i.e., a "one-to-many" relationship), then the first municipal district is considered as a substation, and the multiple substations connected to the first municipal district are considered as multiple municipal districts, repeating PL. （1） The inverse operation is used to calculate the minimum received power P of the target substation. （3，res） ;

[0175] Extract P （1，res） P （2，res） and P （3，res） The maximum value Px in （res） , will Se （1） With Px （res） The larger value in the range is taken as the receiving power of the target substation;

[0176] Repeat the same steps to determine the received power of the target substation, and determine the received power of subsequent substations that are directly and indirectly connected to the target substation, until the received power of the substation directly connected to the power supply end is determined.

[0177] The actual power transmitted from the power supply end to the first municipal district is adjusted to: the power received by the substation directly connected to the power supply end;

[0178] Repeatedly adjust the actual power supplied by the power supply end to the first municipal district, adjust the actual power supplied by the power supply end to the first municipal district from 2 to 23 hours, and adjust the actual power supplied by the power supply end to the second to the mnth municipal districts from 0 to 23 hours.

[0179] Step S3: Monitor the changes in electricity consumption in each municipal district in real time, and adjust the power and power factor of the power supply end as well as the actual power transmitted from the power supply end to each substation. Based on the actual adjustment results of the power supply end and each substation, update the electricity consumption and transmission volume of the target area in real time.

[0180] Example 2

[0181] Please see Figure 2 The system for periodically updating real-time data based on state estimation includes:

[0182] Data acquisition model: used to acquire historical electricity consumption data (for the past three days) for each district in the target area, and to estimate the expected power consumption of each district based on the historical electricity consumption data;

[0183] Data analysis module: used to obtain the historical active power, historical supply voltage and historical voltage phase of the power supply end of the target area (last three days), and calculate the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipal district based on the historical electricity consumption data of each municipal district;

[0184] Power supply regulation module: used to acquire the active and reactive power of the power supply end in real time; determine whether the active and reactive power of the power supply end is sufficient based on the expected power consumption of each municipal district; if the active power is insufficient, adjust the power or power factor angle of the power supply end; if the reactive power is insufficient, supplement the reactive power of the power supply end; if the active and reactive power are sufficient, adjust the actual power delivered by the power supply end to each substation based on the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipal district and the connection between each municipal district and the substation.

[0185] Continuous adjustment module: Used to monitor the changes in electricity consumption in each municipal district in real time, and adjust the power and power factor of the power supply end as well as the actual power transmitted from the power supply end to each substation. Based on the actual adjustment results of the power supply end and each substation, the electricity consumption and transmission volume of the target area are updated in real time.

[0186] The above formulas are all dimensionless calculations. The formulas are derived from software simulations using a large amount of collected data to obtain the most recent real-world results. The preset parameters in the formulas are set by those skilled in the art according to the actual situation. For example, there are weighting coefficients and proportional coefficients. The values ​​set are to quantify each parameter to obtain a specific value, which is convenient for subsequent comparison. The values ​​of the weighting coefficients and proportional coefficients are only required to not affect the proportional relationship between the parameters and the quantified values.

[0187] This invention proposes a real-time data periodic update method and system based on state estimation. It estimates the expected power consumption by using historical power consumption data, and combines the modeling of equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance to determine in real time whether the active / reactive power of the power supply is sufficient. It also adopts differentiated adjustment strategies for different situations (insufficient active power, insufficient reactive power, sufficient power) to achieve dynamic optimization and updating of the power supply and the power transmitted by the substation.

[0188] This invention has the following features and effects:

[0189] 1. Improve power supply reliability and scientific decision-making: By combining historical data prediction and real-time status estimation, accurately determine whether the power supply capacity is sufficient, and dynamically adjust the power supply strategy based on equivalent electrical parameters and network topology, effectively avoiding power supply risks caused by insufficient power or unreasonable allocation.

[0190] 2. Achieving refined and differentiated control: For different scenarios such as insufficient active power and insufficient reactive power, strategies such as adjusting the power factor angle, reactive power compensation, or optimizing the transmission power of substations are adopted to achieve refined scheduling of power supply resources and improve energy utilization efficiency.

[0191] 3. Enhance system adaptability and robustness: By continuously monitoring changes in electricity consumption and dynamically updating power supply parameters, the system can adapt to load fluctuations and changes in power grid structure, ensuring the timeliness of data updates and the accuracy of the model.

[0192] 4. Reduce system complexity and operation and maintenance costs: Unlike traditional methods that rely on complex modeling or high-cost data fusion, this invention is based on state estimation and electrical parameter calculation, which has clear logic, is easy to implement, and reduces the difficulty of system promotion and maintenance.

[0193] Finally, it should be noted that the above-described embodiments are merely specific implementations of the present invention, used to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, and not to limit it. The scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto. Although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, those skilled in the art should understand that any person skilled in the art can still modify or easily conceive of changes to the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments within the technical scope disclosed in the present invention, or make equivalent substitutions for some of the technical features; and these modifications, changes, or substitutions do not cause the essence of the corresponding technical solutions to deviate from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention, and should all be covered within the scope of protection of the present invention. Therefore, the scope of protection of the present invention should be determined by the scope of the claims.

Claims

1. A method for periodically updating real-time data based on state estimation, characterized in that, The method includes: Obtain historical electricity consumption data and estimate expected power consumption based on the historical electricity consumption data; obtain historical active power, historical supply voltage and historical voltage phase at the power supply end, and calculate equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance based on historical electricity consumption data; The system acquires the active and reactive power of the power supply in real time; based on the expected power consumption, it determines whether the active and reactive power of the power supply is sufficient; if the active power is insufficient, it adjusts the power or power factor angle of the power supply; if the reactive power is insufficient, it supplements the power supply; if the active and reactive power are sufficient, it adjusts the actual power delivered by the power supply to each substation based on the equivalent admittance, equivalent impedance, and connection relationship with the substation. Real-time monitoring of electricity consumption changes, and adjustment of the power supply end's power and power factor, as well as the actual power transmitted from the power supply end to each substation. Based on the actual adjustment results of the power supply end and each substation, real-time updates of electricity consumption and transmission volume.

2. The real-time data periodic update method based on state estimation according to claim 1, characterized in that, The specific steps for calculating the expected power consumption are as follows: Obtain the average electricity consumption of the first municipal district. （1，0） ~he （3，23） And calculate the mean ahe, the difference order d, the autoregressive parameter p, and the moving average parameter q; Calculate the autocorrelation coefficient φ （1） ~φ （p） and moving average coefficient θ （1） ~θ （q） ; Calculate he （1，0） ~he （3，23） White noise; with he （1，23） Based on the standard, calculate he （1，23） The d-th order difference from the first hour to the first p hours is then sequentially compared with φ. （1） ~φ （p） Multiply and then sum to get AR(he) （1，23） ); Extract he （1，23） The corresponding white noise ε （1,23） Extract he （1，23） The white noise corresponding to the previous 1 hour to the previous p hours, and sequentially compared with θ （1） ~θ （q） Multiply and then sum to get MA (he （1，23） ); Will AR (he （1，23） ), MA (he （1，23） ), he （1，23） and ε （1,23） Added together, the expected electricity consumption qe at 0:00 for the first municipal district （0） ; Calculate the expected electricity consumption qe of the first municipal district from 1 to 23 hours. （1） ~qe （23） and initial active power qp （0） ~qp （23） ; Calculate the expected electricity consumption (te) of the first municipal district from 0:00 to 23:00 on the last day. （1，0） ~te （1，23） ; Extract the average hourly electricity consumption and calculate the weighted deviation coefficient qd between the actual and predicted values; then calculate qp accordingly. （0） ~qp （23） The product of qd and qd yields the expected active power pp of the first municipal district from 0 to 23 hours. （0） ~pp （23） ; Calculate the expected active power and expected reactive power of the first to the mnth municipal districts.

3. The real-time data periodic update method based on state estimation according to claim 1, characterized in that, The specific steps for calculating equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance are as follows: Obtain the historical active power gP at the power supply end （1,0） Historical power supply voltage gU （1,0） Historical power supply voltage phase uθ （s） ; Obtain the average voltage hu of the first municipal district （1,0） Voltage phase angle uθ （1,0） Current hi （1,0） and the current phase angle iθ （1,0） Calculate the voltage drop ΔU; Calculate gP （1,0） The difference hop between the average active power of the 2nd to mnth municipal districts; Obtain the historical supply current gI at the power supply terminal （1,0） Historical power supply current phase iθ （s） Calculate the line current I （lin） ; Calculate I （lin） Dividing by ΔU, we obtain the equivalent admittance Y of the first municipal district at 0:00 on a given day. （1,0） Calculate Y （1,0） The reciprocal of the first municipal district is used to obtain the equivalent impedance Z at 0:00 on a given day. （1,0） ; Calculate the equivalent admittance Y of the first municipal district from 0:00 on three days to 23:00 on one day. （3,0） ~Y （1,23） Equivalent impedance Z （3,0） ~Z （1,23） ; Calculate Y （3,0） ~Y （1,23） The average value is used as the equivalent admittance dY of the first municipal district. （1） ; Calculate Z （3,0） ~Z （1,23） The average value is used as the equivalent impedance dZ of the first municipal district. （1） ; Calculate the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of the 2nd to mnth municipal districts.

4. The real-time data periodic update method based on state estimation according to claim 1, characterized in that, The steps to determine whether the active and reactive power at the power supply end are sufficient and to formulate different adjustment strategies are as follows: Obtain the actual active power yP at the power supply terminal when it is 0. （0） and reactive power yQ （0） ; Calculate the sum of expected work (ap) for the first to the mnth municipal districts at time 0. （0） And the expectation of no work and aq （0） ; Comparison yP （0） with ap （0） The size, and yQ （0） with aq （0） The magnitude of the active and reactive power at the power supply end is used to determine whether they are sufficient. If yP （0） <ap （0） If the power supply is insufficient, the power or power factor angle of the power supply should be adjusted. According to yP （0） and yQ （0） Calculate the initial power factor angle β at the power supply terminal. （old） ; yP （0） Adjust to AP （0） , keep yQ unchanged （0） According to AP （0） Calculate the new power factor angle β （new） ; Let β remain unchanged （old） According to AP （0） Calculate the new reactive power yQ （new） ; Calculate β （new） relative to β （old） The coefficient of variation f （1） : Calculate yQ （new） Compared to yQ （0） The coefficient of variation f （2） : Compare f （1） with f （2） Adjust the size of the reactive power or power factor angle at the power supply end; If f （1） ≤f （2） Then adjust the power factor angle at the power supply end to β. （new） ; If f （1） >f （2） Then adjust the reactive power at the power supply end to yQ. （new） .

5. The real-time data periodic update method based on state estimation according to claim 4, characterized in that, The adjustment strategy also includes: If yQ （0） <aq （0） If the reactive power at the power supply end is insufficient, then reactive power supplementation should be carried out at the power supply end. Obtain the initial power factor angle β at the power supply end （old） Let Q be the reactive power supplemented at the power supply end. （add） ; With β （old） The cosine value is the left-hand side of the equation; with yQ （0） For the numerator, yQ under the square root. （0） The square of Q （add） The sum of the squares of the terms is used as the denominator, and combined to form the right-hand side of the equation; equation s is constructed, and the reactive power Q after supplementation at the power supply end is calculated. （add） ; Calculate Q （add） Reduce yQ （0） The difference is used to obtain the reactive power ΔQ that is supplemented to the power supply end.

6. The real-time data periodic update method based on state estimation according to claim 4, characterized in that, The adjustment strategy also includes: If yP （0） ≥ap （0） And yQ （0） ≥aq （0） If the active and reactive power of the power supply end is sufficient, the actual power delivered by the power supply end to each substation will be adjusted according to the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipal district and the connection between each municipal district and the substation. Adjust the actual power supplied from the power supply end to the first municipal district; Obtain the equivalent admittance dY of the first municipal district （1） Equivalent impedance dZ （1） Expected active power qp （0） And expected reactive power qq （0） ; Obtain the effective voltage value Ui at the grid connection point of the first municipal district. （1） Calculate the basic power supply Se from the power station to the first municipal district. （1） : ； Among them, Ii （1） The equivalent transmission current of the first municipal district is: j represents the imaginary unit; The substation directly connected to the power grid of the first municipal district is taken as the target substation. Based on the connection relationship between the first municipal district and the target substation, the minimum receiving power of the target substation is calculated, and the actual power transmitted by each substation at the power supply end is adjusted. Scenario 1: If the target substation is only connected to the first municipal district, then obtain the admittance Y of the transmission line from the first municipal district to the target substation. （L） ; Obtain the rated voltage Uw of the target substation, and calculate the square of Uw and Ui. （1） The sum of the squares of A(Uw, Ui) （1） ); QP （0） and QQ （0） Converted into complex power ss （0） Calculate A(Uw, Ui) （1） ) and Y （L） The product and ss （0） By adding them together, we obtain the minimum received power P of the target substation. （1，res） ; Scenario 2: If the target substation is connected to the first municipal district and other municipal districts, count the number of other municipal districts ot and calculate the minimum received power P. （2，res） ; Scenario 3: If multiple substations are connected to the first municipal district, calculate the minimum received power P of the target substation. （3，res） .

7. The real-time data periodic update method based on state estimation according to claim 6, characterized in that, The second scenario includes: Obtain the admittance YL of the transmission lines from the 1st to the otth other municipal districts to the target substation. （1） ~YL （ot） and the rated voltage Uw of the 1st to otth other municipal districts （1） ~Uw （ot） ; P （1，res） In the calculation formula, Uw is replaced with Uw in sequence. （1） ~Uw （ot） Y （L） Replace with YL in sequence （1） ~YL （ot） Calculate the minimum received power PL of the first to the otth other municipal districts relative to the target municipal district. （1） ~PL （ot） : Calculate PL （1） ~PL （ot） and P （1，res） The sum of these values ​​is used as the minimum received power P of the target substation. （2，res） .

8. The real-time data periodic update method based on state estimation according to claim 7, characterized in that, The third scenario includes: Treat the first municipal district as a substation, and treat multiple substations connected to the first municipal district as multiple municipal districts, repeating PL. （1） The inverse operation is used to calculate the minimum received power P of the target substation. （3，res） ; Extract P （1，res） P （2，res） and P （3，res） The maximum value Px in （res） , will Se （1） With Px （res） The larger value in the range is taken as the receiving power of the target substation; Determine the receiving power of subsequent substations that are directly and indirectly connected to the target substation, until the receiving power of the substation directly connected to the power supply end is determined. The actual power transmitted from the power supply end to the first municipal district is adjusted to: the power received by the substation directly connected to the power supply end; Adjust the actual power supplied from the power supply end to the first municipal district from 2 to 23 hours and the actual power supplied from the power supply end to the second to the mnth municipal districts from 0 to 23 hours.

9. A real-time data periodic update system based on state estimation, applicable to the real-time data periodic update method based on state estimation as described in any one of claims 1-8, characterized in that, The system includes: Data acquisition model: used to acquire historical electricity consumption data of each municipal district in the target area, and to estimate the expected power consumption of each municipal district based on the historical electricity consumption data; Data analysis module: used to obtain historical active power, historical supply voltage and historical voltage phase of the power supply end of the target area, and calculate the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipal district based on the historical electricity consumption data of each municipal district; Power supply regulation module: used to acquire the active and reactive power of the power supply end in real time; determine whether the active and reactive power of the power supply end is sufficient based on the expected power consumption of each municipal district; if the active power is insufficient, adjust the power or power factor angle of the power supply end; if the reactive power is insufficient, supplement the reactive power of the power supply end; if the active and reactive power are sufficient, adjust the actual power delivered by the power supply end to each substation based on the equivalent admittance and equivalent impedance of each municipal district and the connection between each municipal district and the substation. Continuous adjustment module: Used to monitor changes in electricity consumption in each municipal district in real time, and adjust the power and power factor of the power supply end as well as the actual power transmitted from the power supply end to each substation. Based on the actual adjustment results of the power supply end and each substation, the electricity consumption and transmission volume of the target area are updated in real time.

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