Power distribution network operation strategy determination method and electronic device

Abstract

The application discloses a power distribution network operation strategy determination method and electronic equipment. The method comprises the following steps: obtaining predicted information of a target power distribution network and current voltages corresponding to a plurality of devices in the target power distribution network; obtaining a first margin range, a second margin range and a tail risk quantile value of the target power distribution network; judging whether the initial operation strategy of the target power distribution network in the current period needs to be optimized based on the current voltages corresponding to the plurality of devices and the second margin range; in the case that the initial operation strategy needs to be optimized, determining a voltage regulation direction based on the first margin range, the second margin range, the tail risk quantile value and the predicted information; and optimizing the initial operation strategy to obtain a target operation strategy of the target power distribution network in the current period. The application solves the technical problems of high voltage out-of-limit frequency of the power distribution network and short service life of the devices in the power distribution network caused by incomplete consideration of factors when the power distribution network faces complex operation environment.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the fields of new energy and energy-saving technology, and more specifically, to a method for determining the operation strategy of a power distribution network and an electronic device. Background Technology

[0002] With the high proportion of distributed photovoltaic (PV) power integrated into distribution networks, the operating characteristics of these networks have undergone profound changes. PV power output is highly intermittent and random, and coupled with load fluctuations and disturbances from switching operations, this leads to frequent voltage exceedances in the distribution network, easily exceeding safe operating ranges and seriously threatening system safety and power quality. To address these issues, distribution networks are equipped with various voltage regulation resources, including power electronic voltage regulators (such as thyristor regulators, modular multilevel converters, static var generators, and grouped capacitor banks), as well as PV inverters with reactive power regulation capabilities, forming a multi-resource coordinated control capability. However, the relevant technologies have significant shortcomings in distribution network voltage control, mainly manifested in the following aspects:

[0003] Inverter droop control and automatic capacitor switching strategies based on local voltage employ passive response control logic. This means they determine whether a voltage limit has been exceeded solely based on the current voltage measurement and execute a single adjustment accordingly. They rely solely on adjusting downwards when the current voltage is too high and upwards when it's too low, failing to assess future voltage risk trends. In summary, the voltage control methods in these technologies can only achieve distribution network operation control based on a limited number of factors. They lack comprehensive consideration and cannot shift from passively responding to the current state to proactively preventing future risks. This results in a high frequency of voltage exceedances in the distribution network, severely reducing voltage compliance rates and the lifespan of equipment within the network.

[0004] There is currently no effective solution to the above problems. Summary of the Invention

[0005] This invention provides a method and electronic device for determining the operation strategy of a distribution network, which at least solves the technical problems of high voltage over-limit frequency and short service life of equipment in the distribution network caused by incomplete consideration of factors when the distribution network faces a complex operating environment.

[0006] According to one aspect of the present invention, a method for determining the operation strategy of a distribution network is provided, comprising: acquiring forecast information of a target distribution network and the current voltage corresponding to each of multiple devices in the target distribution network, wherein the forecast information includes a photovoltaic output curve and a load power curve for a forecast period, and the forecast period is a period of predetermined duration after the current period; acquiring a first margin range, a second margin range, and a tail risk quantile of the target distribution network, wherein the first margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period when voltage regulation devices among the multiple devices participate in voltage regulation; the second margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period corresponding to resisting external interference when voltage regulation devices do not participate in voltage regulation; and the tail risk quantile represents the target... The voltage compensation required by the distribution network to eliminate external interference in the current period is determined by the first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile value, which are obtained under the condition that the current voltage of each of the multiple devices is within the preset voltage safety range. Based on the current voltage and the second margin range of each of the multiple devices, it is determined whether the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current period needs to be optimized. If the initial operation strategy needs to be optimized, the voltage regulation direction is determined based on the first margin range, the second margin range, the tail risk quantile value, and the prediction information. Based on the current voltage and voltage regulation direction of the voltage-abnormal devices among the multiple devices, the initial operation strategy is optimized to obtain the target operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current period, where the voltage-abnormal devices are those whose current voltage exceeds the preset voltage safety range.

[0007] According to another aspect of the present invention, a distribution network operation strategy determination device is also provided, comprising: a first data acquisition module, configured to acquire prediction information of a target distribution network and the current voltage corresponding to each of multiple devices in the target distribution network, wherein the prediction information includes a photovoltaic output curve and a load power curve during the prediction period, and the prediction period is a period of predetermined duration after the current period; a second data acquisition module, configured to acquire a first margin range, a second margin range, and a tail risk quantile value of the target distribution network, wherein the first margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period when voltage regulation devices among the multiple devices participate in voltage regulation; the second margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period corresponding to resisting external interference when voltage regulation devices do not participate in voltage regulation; and the tail risk quantile value represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period. To eliminate the voltage compensation required to eliminate external interference, the first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile are obtained under the condition that the current voltage of each of the multiple devices is within the preset voltage safety range. The operation strategy optimization confirmation module is used to determine whether the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network needs to be optimized in the current period based on the current voltage and the second margin range of each of the multiple devices. The voltage adjustment direction determination module is used to determine the voltage adjustment direction based on the first margin range, the second margin range, the tail risk quantile, and the prediction information if the initial operation strategy needs to be optimized. The target operation strategy determination module is used to optimize the initial operation strategy based on the current voltage and voltage adjustment direction of the voltage-abnormal devices among the multiple devices to obtain the target operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current period, wherein the voltage-abnormal devices are the devices whose current voltage exceeds the preset voltage safety range.

[0008] According to another aspect of the present invention, a non-volatile storage medium is also provided, the non-volatile storage medium storing a plurality of instructions, the instructions being adapted to be loaded by a processor and executed by any one of the methods for determining the operation strategy of the power distribution network.

[0009] According to another aspect of the present invention, an electronic device is also provided, including one or more processors and a memory, the memory being used to store one or more programs, wherein when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors cause the one or more processors to implement the power distribution network operation strategy determination method described in any one of the present invention.

[0010] According to another aspect of the present invention, a computer program product is also provided, including a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for determining the operation strategy of a power distribution network as described in any one of the present invention.

[0011] In this embodiment of the invention, the following steps are taken: First, predictive information about the target distribution network and the current voltage of each device within the target distribution network are obtained. The predictive information includes the photovoltaic output curve and load power curve for the predicted period, which is a predetermined duration following the current period. Second, a first margin range, a second margin range, and a tail risk quantile value for the target distribution network are obtained. The first margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period when voltage regulation devices participate in voltage regulation. The second margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period to resist external interference when voltage regulation devices do not participate in voltage regulation. The tail risk quantile value represents the amount of voltage compensation required by the target distribution network in the current period to eliminate external interference. The first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile value are obtained when the current voltage of each device is within a preset voltage safety range. Based on the current voltage and the second margin range of each device, the target distribution network is determined... Does the initial operating strategy of the power grid need optimization in the current period? If the initial operating strategy needs optimization, the voltage regulation direction is determined based on the first margin range, the second margin range, the tail risk quantile, and prediction information. Based on the current voltage and voltage regulation direction of the voltage-abnormal devices among multiple devices, the initial operating strategy is optimized to obtain the target operating strategy of the target distribution network in the current period. Among them, the voltage-abnormal devices are those whose current voltage exceeds the preset voltage safety range. This achieves the goal of accurately obtaining the target operating strategy by constructing a risk assessment system that coordinates the first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile, combining prediction information to determine the voltage regulation direction, and optimizing the initial operating strategy of the target distribution network in the current period. This achieves the technical effect of reducing the voltage over-limit frequency of the distribution network and improving the service life of equipment in the distribution network. In turn, it solves the technical problems of high voltage over-limit frequency and short service life of equipment in the distribution network caused by incomplete consideration of factors when the distribution network faces complex operating environments. Attached Figure Description

[0012] The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the invention and form part of this application, illustrate exemplary embodiments of the invention and, together with their description, serve to explain the invention and do not constitute an undue limitation thereof. In the drawings:

[0013] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a method for determining the operation strategy of a power distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0014] Figure 2 This is a flowchart of an optional target operation strategy determination method according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0015] Figure 3This is a flowchart of an optional method for determining the operation strategy of a power distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0016] Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of a power distribution network operation strategy determination device according to an embodiment of the present invention;

[0017] Figure 5 This is a schematic diagram of an electronic device for determining the operation strategy of a power distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention. Detailed Implementation

[0018] To enable those skilled in the art to better understand the present invention, the technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings of the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, and not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by those skilled in the art without creative effort should fall within the scope of protection of the present invention.

[0019] It should be noted that the terms "first," "second," etc., in the specification, claims, and accompanying drawings of this invention are used to distinguish similar objects and are not necessarily used to describe a specific order or sequence. It should be understood that such data can be interchanged where appropriate so that the embodiments of the invention described herein can be implemented in orders other than those illustrated or described herein. Furthermore, the terms "comprising" and "having," and any variations thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion; for example, a process, method, system, product, or apparatus that comprises a series of steps or units is not necessarily limited to those steps or units explicitly listed, but may include other steps or units not explicitly listed or inherent to such processes, methods, products, or apparatus.

[0020] According to an embodiment of the present invention, a method embodiment for determining the operation strategy of a power distribution network is provided. It should be noted that the steps shown in the flowchart in the accompanying drawings can be executed in a computer system such as a set of computer-executable instructions. Furthermore, although a logical order is shown in the flowchart, in some cases, the steps shown or described may be executed in a different order than that shown here.

[0021] Figure 1 This is a flowchart of a method for determining the operation strategy of a distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention, such as... Figure 1 As shown, the method includes the following steps:

[0022] Step S102: Obtain the forecast information of the target distribution network and the current voltage of each of the multiple devices in the target distribution network. The forecast information includes the photovoltaic output curve and load power curve during the forecast period, which is a period of predetermined duration after the current period.

[0023] Optionally, acquiring forecast information of the target distribution network and the current voltage of each device is a core data input step for realizing the transformation of the target distribution network from passive response to proactive prevention. The forecast information includes the output change curve and load power curve of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems within a predetermined future timeframe. This forecast information can be obtained, but is not limited to, through weather forecasting platforms, load forecasting systems, or short-term and ultra-short-term forecasting models. Real-time voltage data of each device in the target distribution network is collected as the current operating status of the network. Based on the forecast information, the target distribution network can initiate risk assessments and voltage regulation direction decisions, avoiding premature depletion of voltage regulation resources and secondary limit violations due to response delays. This lays a data foundation for achieving stable operation of the target distribution network under high-proportion PV integration.

[0024] Step S104: Obtain the first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile of the target distribution network. The first margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current time period when voltage regulation devices in multiple devices participate in voltage regulation. The second margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current time period to resist external interference when voltage regulation devices do not participate in voltage regulation. The tail risk quantile represents the amount of voltage compensation required by the target distribution network in the current time period to eliminate external interference. The first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile are obtained under the condition that the current voltage of each of the multiple devices is within the preset voltage safety range.

[0025] Optionally, obtaining the first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile value is the foundation for constructing forward-looking voltage control. The first margin range (i.e., active adjustment margin) represents the maximum magnitude of uniform upward or downward voltage adjustment that the target distribution network can achieve under its current operating state by scheduling voltage regulation equipment (including but not limited to reactive power output of photovoltaic inverters and tap adjustment of power electronic voltage regulators), thus representing the amount of regulated voltage available to the target distribution network. Furthermore, the first margin range not only reflects the current available capacity of the target distribution network but also implies the potential for multi-resource coordinated action. The first margin range can be obtained by integrating historical operating data of the target distribution network with AC power flow optimization predictions using an offline-constructed hybrid drive model. The second margin range (i.e., passive disturbance rejection margin) represents the maximum magnitude of upward or downward voltage adjustment that the target distribution network can withstand under its current operating state without relying on voltage regulation equipment for active control, based solely on the current topology, line impedance characteristics, node injected power, and voltage distribution, without triggering any equipment's voltage exceeding its limits due to external disturbances (such as sudden rises or falls in photovoltaic power or load abrupt changes). The second margin range represents the inherent electrical stiffness of the target distribution network, reflecting the coupling between the network's sensitivity to external disturbances and its safety margin. The tail risk quantile quantile quantifies the voltage compensation required by the target distribution network to prevent voltage exceedances caused by external interference. The first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile quantile are all predicted based on historical operating data of the target distribution network under normal operating conditions where all equipment voltages are within the preset safe voltage range.

[0026] Step S106: Based on the current voltage and second margin range of each of the multiple devices, determine whether the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current time period needs to be optimized.

[0027] Optionally, this step determines whether the target distribution network has entered a high-risk latency period before deciding whether to optimize the current initial operating strategy. The initial operating strategy refers to the operating mode relied upon by the target distribution network before the optimization process begins. This initial operating strategy can be one or a combination of the following forms: the inverter adopts a fixed droop curve, where the inverter adjustment only responds to instantaneous voltage, without considering future trends or the remaining regulation capacity of the target distribution network; capacitor banks automatically switch on and off according to voltage ranges, with capacitor control actions determined by fixed dead zones and delay logic, lacking awareness of the target distribution network's rigidity; the power electronic voltage regulator remains at the current tap position, or performs a voltage scan and minor adjustments at fixed time intervals, without considering load or photovoltaic forecasts for forward-looking regulation. Based on the initial operating strategy, and combining the real-time collected current voltage with the second margin range (i.e., the target distribution network's passive disturbance rejection capability without any action), the initial operating strategy is evaluated to determine whether it is still sufficient to support the target distribution network in coping with upcoming external disturbances. For example, although the current voltage of each of the multiple devices is within the preset safe voltage range, the second margin range is lower than the preset emergency threshold. This indicates that even if the voltage does not exceed the limit, the target distribution network is already in a highly vulnerable state. At this point, although the initial operating strategy may seem normal, it has actually lost the ability to cope with external disturbances such as cloud cover and sudden load increases. Early intervention is required; otherwise, it will fall into a vicious cycle of "exceeding the limit—adjustment—exceeding the limit again." By determining in advance whether an operating strategy is needed and optimizing it, the frequency of voltage exceeding the limit in the subsequent operation of the target distribution network can be significantly reduced, the number of equipment actions can be reduced, equipment lifespan can be extended, and the operational resilience and stability of the distribution network under high-proportion distributed photovoltaic access can be improved.

[0028] In one optional embodiment, based on the current voltage and second margin range corresponding to each of the multiple devices, it is determined whether the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network needs to be optimized in the current time period. This includes: determining that the initial operation strategy needs to be optimized if the current voltage of any of the multiple devices exceeds a preset voltage safety range, or if the upper limit of the second margin range is less than or equal to a preset first emergency threshold, or if the lower limit of the second margin range is less than or equal to a preset second emergency threshold; or determining that the initial operation strategy does not need to be optimized if the current voltage of each of the multiple devices does not exceed the preset voltage safety range, and the upper limit of the second margin range is greater than the preset first emergency threshold, and the lower limit of the second margin range is greater than the preset second emergency threshold.

[0029] Optionally, the condition for determining that the initial operating strategy needs optimization is at least one of the following: If the current voltage of any of the multiple devices exceeds the preset voltage safety range, the target distribution network is obviously in an abnormal state and must be intervened immediately; if the passive disturbance rejection capability of the target distribution network, i.e., the upper limit of the second margin range, is less than or equal to the preset first emergency threshold, or the lower limit of the second margin range is less than or equal to the preset second emergency threshold, it means that although the power grid is not abnormal, it is approaching an abnormal state. Here, the preset first emergency threshold represents the boundary of the upper limit of the second margin range when the target distribution network faces the risk of voltage drop; the preset second emergency threshold represents the boundary of the lower limit of the second margin range when the target distribution network faces the risk of voltage rise. For example, in the event of a sudden increase in photovoltaic output leading to a voltage rise risk, if the lower limit of the target distribution network's second margin range (its ability to resist voltage rise) is lower than the preset second emergency threshold, it indicates that the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network has insufficient disturbance buffer space to cope with potential voltage exceedance risks. The target distribution network is in a critical state of voltage rise risk and requires proactive intervention to restore sufficient passive disturbance resistance. Conversely, if the upper limit of the second margin range (its ability to resist voltage drop) is lower than the preset first emergency threshold, it indicates that the disturbance reserve on which the target distribution network's initial operation strategy relies is nearing depletion and cannot effectively resist disturbances such as sudden photovoltaic drops or load surges that cause voltage drops. The target distribution network is in a critical state of voltage drop risk and requires proactive voltage adjustment to restore sufficient passive disturbance resistance in advance to prevent voltage drop exceeding the limit. Therefore, by introducing a comparison between the second margin range and the emergency threshold, a leap from "post-event repair" to "pre-event defense" can be achieved, avoiding subsequent chain reactions and significantly reducing the frequency and severity of voltage exceedance events. The target distribution network is considered healthy and stable only when the current voltage of all devices does not exceed the preset voltage safety range, and the upper and lower limits of the second margin range are simultaneously higher than their respective emergency thresholds. In this case, the target distribution network is not only currently operating safely, but also has sufficient time and space to cope with future uncertainties, maintaining its current initial operating strategy, thereby avoiding unnecessary equipment actions and reducing losses and maintenance costs.

[0030] Step S108: If the initial operating strategy needs to be optimized, determine the voltage regulation direction based on the first margin range, the second margin range, the tail risk quantile value, and the prediction information.

[0031] Optionally, when the initial operating strategy needs optimization, this step does not simply determine the voltage regulation direction based on whether the current voltage exceeds the limit. Instead, it constructs a multi-dimensional collaborative decision-making mechanism that integrates the target distribution network's inherent regulation capabilities, external disturbance risks, and reserve requirements to accurately determine the optimal voltage regulation direction. Based on this, it further predicts the dominant direction of future voltage risks using forecast information. By determining the voltage regulation direction, the target distribution network no longer blindly follows voltage fluctuations with mechanical adjustments. Instead, it proactively configures the optimal voltage regulation direction based on risk trends before disturbances occur. For example, during a period of high solar power generation at midday but with cloud cover forecasts, this method can identify the voltage drop risk caused by cloud cover and proactively reserve upward regulation capabilities. This allows the target distribution network to maintain stable voltage even during sudden drops in solar radiation, avoiding secondary voltage exceedances. This significantly improves the operational resilience of the target distribution network in a highly volatile renewable energy environment, drastically reduces the number of voltage exceedances and equipment operation frequency, and enhances fault tolerance to extreme events.

[0032] In an optional embodiment, when the initial operating strategy needs optimization, the voltage regulation direction is determined based on a first margin range, a second margin range, a tail risk quantile, and prediction information. This includes: determining a voltage risk index for the target distribution network based on prediction information, wherein the voltage risk index is used to quantify the risk level of any device among multiple devices exceeding a preset voltage safety range during the prediction period; determining a first composite decision index based on the upper limit of the first margin range, the upper limit of the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile, wherein the first composite decision index is used to indicate the upward voltage regulation capacity that the target distribution network needs to reserve in advance to cope with the voltage reduction risk during the prediction period in the current period; determining a second composite decision index based on the lower limit of the first margin range, the lower limit of the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile, wherein the second composite decision index is used to indicate the downward voltage regulation capacity that the target distribution network needs to reserve in advance to cope with the voltage increase risk during the prediction period in the current period; and determining the voltage regulation direction based on the first composite decision index, the second composite decision index, and the voltage risk index.

[0033] Optionally, based on forecast information, a voltage risk index is determined as a quantitative expression of the probability of future voltage exceeding the safety boundary. On this basis, the active regulation capability (first margin range) and passive disturbance rejection capability (second margin range) of the target distribution network are jointly evaluated to obtain a first composite decision index and a second composite decision index. The first composite decision index guides the target distribution network on how to respond to voltage drop risks and determines the upward voltage regulation capacity that needs to be reserved in advance. Similarly, the second composite decision index guides the target distribution network on how to respond to voltage rise risks and determines the downward voltage regulation capacity that needs to be reserved in advance. The upward voltage regulation capacity is provided by voltage regulation equipment with upward voltage regulation function; the downward voltage regulation capacity is provided by voltage regulation equipment with downward voltage regulation function. The first and second composite decision indices can be obtained as follows: ; ;in, This represents the first composite decision index. This represents the second composite decision index. This represents the upper limit of the first margin range. This indicates the weight corresponding to the first margin range. This represents the upper limit of the second margin range. This indicates the weight corresponding to the second margin range. This represents the tail risk quantile. This indicates the weight corresponding to the tail risk quantile. This represents the lower limit of the first margin range. This represents the lower limit of the second margin range. Finally, the two composite decision indices are matched with the voltage risk index to determine the voltage regulation direction. The method in this embodiment avoids over-regulation and resource waste, preventing the target distribution network from triggering voltage control actions due to single-point overruns. Instead, it pre-determines the voltage reserve capacity and voltage regulation direction before implementing voltage regulation, significantly reducing the operation and maintenance costs of the target distribution network.

[0034] In an optional embodiment, when the voltage risk index includes a voltage rise risk index and a voltage fall risk index, determining the voltage regulation direction based on a first composite decision index, a second composite decision index, and the voltage risk index includes: determining the average rising slope and average falling slope of photovoltaic output of the target distribution network during the forecast period based on the photovoltaic output curve; determining the average rising slope and average falling slope of load power of the target distribution network during the forecast period based on the load power curve; determining a first weight corresponding to the average rising slope of photovoltaic output, a second weight corresponding to the average falling slope of load power, a third weight corresponding to the average falling slope of photovoltaic output, and a fourth weight corresponding to the average rising slope of load power; performing a weighted summation calculation based on the average rising slope of photovoltaic output, the average falling slope of load power, the first weight, and the second weight to obtain the voltage rise risk index; performing a weighted summation calculation based on the average falling slope of photovoltaic output, the average rising slope of load power, the third weight, and the fourth weight to obtain the voltage fall risk index; and determining the voltage regulation direction based on the voltage rise risk index, the voltage fall risk index, the first composite decision index, and the second composite decision index.

[0035] Optionally, to quantify future voltage risk, the average upward slope of photovoltaic (PV) output, the average downward slope of PV output, and the average upward and downward slopes of load power are extracted from the load power curve and PV output curve in the forecast data. These slopes are not simple linear fits, but are calculated using weighted moving least squares or piecewise linear regression based on the power sequence within the forecast period to enhance robustness to non-stationary fluctuations. Specifically, the voltage rise risk index is positively correlated with predicted PV surges and load drops; the voltage drop risk index is positively correlated with predicted PV drops and load surges. In particular, by obtaining PV output data for periods of continuous growth in PV output within the forecast period (i.e., positive output increments between adjacent time points), and performing linear regression on the output data points within this interval, the average upward slope of PV output can be obtained as follows. ,in, This represents the actual active power output of photovoltaic power at any sampling moment within a continuously increasing period. This represents the actual active power output of photovoltaic power at the next sampling time within any sampling time period of continuous growth. Indicates the end sampling time within a continuously increasing period. Indicates the starting sampling time in a continuously increasing period. 1 represents the sampling interval within a continuously increasing period, and N represents the number of sampling moments within that period. Similarly, the average slope of photovoltaic power output decline is the average of the negative rate of change over a period of continuous power output decline, and can be obtained as follows: ,in, This represents the actual active power output of photovoltaic power at any sampling moment within a continuously decreasing period. This represents the actual active power output of photovoltaic power at the previous sampling time within any sampling time period during a continuous decline. Indicates the end sampling time within a period of continuous decline. Indicates the starting sampling time in a period of continuous decline. 2 represents the sampling interval during the continuous decline period, and M represents the number of sampling moments during the continuous decline period. The rise and fall slopes of load power are obtained using the same method as the average rise and fall slopes of photovoltaic output, extracted for the rapid increase and rapid decrease phases of load within the prediction period, respectively. Based on this, four sets of dynamic weights are introduced, corresponding to the contribution of the above four slopes to voltage risk. These weights are not fixed parameters, but are adaptively adjusted according to the topology of the target distribution network (such as the impedance characteristics of overhead long lines and cable networks), historical operating data statistics, and real-time load rate. Among them, the first weight is used to quantify the contribution of the average rise slope of photovoltaic output to the upper limit of the predicted voltage of any device exceeding the preset voltage safety range; the second weight is used to quantify the contribution of the average fall slope of load power to the upper limit of the predicted voltage of any device exceeding the preset voltage safety range; the third weight is used to quantify the contribution of the average fall slope of photovoltaic output to the lower limit of the predicted voltage of any device exceeding the preset voltage safety range; and the fourth weight is used to quantify the contribution of the average rise slope of load power to the lower limit of the predicted voltage of any device exceeding the preset voltage safety range. The voltage rise risk index and voltage fall risk index can be calculated as follows: ; ;in, This indicates the risk index of voltage rise. This indicates the risk index of voltage reduction. Indicates the average upward slope of photovoltaic power output, Indicates the average slope of load power decrease. Indicates the first weight. Indicates the second weight. Indicates the average slope of the decline in photovoltaic power output. This represents the average slope of the load power increase. Indicates the third weight. This indicates the fourth weight.

[0036] In one optional embodiment, determining the voltage adjustment direction based on a voltage rise risk index, a voltage fall risk index, a first composite decision index, and a second composite decision index includes: performing a difference calculation on the voltage rise risk index and the voltage fall risk index to obtain a voltage risk index difference; if the voltage risk index difference is greater than a preset risk difference, determining the voltage adjustment direction as downward voltage adjustment based on the second composite decision index; or if the voltage risk index difference is less than the preset risk difference, determining the voltage adjustment direction as upward voltage adjustment based on the first composite decision index; or if the voltage risk index difference is equal to the preset risk difference and the first composite decision index is greater than the second composite decision index, determining the voltage adjustment direction as downward voltage adjustment based on the second composite decision index; or if the voltage risk index difference is equal to the preset risk difference and the first composite decision index is less than the second composite decision index, determining the voltage adjustment direction as upward voltage adjustment based on the first composite decision index.

[0037] Optionally, a voltage regulation direction determination method can be constructed based on the decision jointly constituted by the voltage rise risk index, the voltage fall risk index, the first composite decision index, and the second composite decision index, by introducing a dynamic threshold comparison mechanism for the risk difference. Specifically, firstly, the voltage rise risk and the voltage fall risk are calculated to obtain the voltage risk index difference. This voltage risk index difference serves as the core directional indicator of the future voltage evolution trend of the target distribution network: if the voltage risk index difference is greater than a preset risk difference, it indicates that the target distribution network is biased towards overvoltage risk; if the voltage risk index difference is less than the preset risk difference, it indicates that the target distribution network is biased towards undervoltage risk. Based on this, the voltage regulation direction is determined based on the second composite decision index (representing the reserve capacity for downward voltage regulation that the target distribution network needs to reserve in advance in the face of overvoltage risk) and the first composite decision index (representing the reserve capacity for upward voltage regulation that the target distribution network needs to reserve in advance in the face of undervoltage risk). Furthermore, when the voltage risk index difference equals the preset risk difference, the final decision is based on the relative magnitude of the two composite decision indices: if the first composite decision index is less than the second composite decision index, it indicates that although the target distribution network has balanced risks, its upward voltage regulation capability is insufficient. In this case, even if the risk of voltage increase is slightly higher, upward voltage regulation should be prioritized to compensate for the weakest link and prevent the inability to raise voltage due to lack of upward capability during subsequent disturbances. Conversely, if the second composite decision index is smaller, the target distribution network actively chooses downward voltage regulation to prioritize consolidating its downward regulation capability and avoid loss of control due to lack of downward reserves during periods of high photovoltaic power generation or sudden load drops. Ultimately, in complex scenarios with a high proportion of renewable energy integration, this method can adaptively identify which side's regulation resources are exhausted, thereby providing clear instructions for the scheduling of voltage regulation equipment and avoiding cascading exceedances caused by improper allocation of reactive power resources.

[0038] Step S110: Based on the current voltage and voltage adjustment direction of the voltage-abnormal devices among multiple devices, optimize the initial operation strategy to obtain the target operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current time period, wherein the voltage-abnormal devices are devices whose current voltage exceeds the preset voltage safety range.

[0039] Optionally, after determining the voltage regulation direction, the focus is further on the equipment in the abnormal voltage state. Based on the current voltage and voltage regulation direction of the abnormal voltage equipment, the initial operation strategy is optimized to generate the target operation strategy, thereby ensuring that the stable operation of the target distribution network is maintained while preventing secondary voltage overruns.

[0040] In one alternative embodiment, Figure 2 This is a flowchart of an optional target operation strategy determination method according to an embodiment of the present invention, such as... Figure 2 As shown, when there are multiple devices with abnormal voltage, the initial operating strategy is optimized based on the current voltage and voltage regulation direction of the devices with abnormal voltage, resulting in the target operating strategy for the target distribution network in the current time period, including:

[0041] Step S202: Based on the current voltage of the first abnormal device among multiple abnormal voltage devices and the lower limit of the preset voltage safety range, a first voltage deviation is obtained, wherein the first abnormal device is the device whose current voltage is less than the lower limit of the preset voltage safety range;

[0042] Step S204: Based on the current voltage of the second abnormal device among multiple abnormal voltage devices and the upper limit of the preset voltage safety range, multiple second voltage deviations are obtained, wherein the second abnormal device is a device whose current voltage is greater than the upper limit of the preset voltage safety range;

[0043] Step S206: The initial operating strategy is optimized with the goal of minimizing the maximum voltage deviation between the first voltage deviation and the second voltage deviation, to obtain a reference operating strategy.

[0044] Step S208: Based on the voltage regulation direction, optimize the reference operating strategy to obtain the target operating strategy.

[0045] Optionally, in complex scenarios where multiple devices simultaneously exhibit voltage anomalies, this embodiment employs a layered, progressive optimization mechanism to achieve intelligent correction of voltage over-limits. First, two types of abnormal devices are identified: one type is undervoltage devices (i.e., the first abnormal device) with voltage below the lower limit, and its deviation from the preset lower limit of the voltage safety range is calculated (i.e., the first voltage deviation). The first voltage deviation reflects the urgency of the target distribution network's voltage rise requirement. The other type is overvoltage devices (i.e., the second abnormal device) with voltage above the upper limit, and its deviation from the preset upper limit of the voltage safety range is calculated (i.e., the second voltage deviation). The second voltage deviation reflects the intensity of the target distribution network's voltage suppression requirement. Multiple first and second abnormal devices can exist. Subsequently, minimizing the maximum value among all voltage deviations is the optimization objective. This objective prioritizes eliminating the most severely over-limit devices, ensuring that the weakest link in the target distribution network is restored to safety first, thereby avoiding the cascading risk of local repair leading to global collapse. Based on this, the operating strategy is further optimized using the determined voltage regulation direction, ultimately yielding the target operating strategy. This two-layer optimization mechanism can significantly reduce the frequency of voltage over-limit and avoid resource consumption caused by voltage regulation direction conflicts.

[0046] In one optional embodiment, the initial operating strategy is optimized with the goal of minimizing the maximum voltage deviation between the first voltage deviation and the second voltage deviation, to obtain a reference operating strategy, including: determining a preset first constraint condition as follows:

[0047] ;

[0048] ;

[0049] in, This indicates the time taken to solve for the reference running strategy. This indicates the start-up time of any one of the multiple voltage regulating devices. This represents the time it takes for any voltage regulator to complete one optimization of its initial operating strategy from startup, where i represents the index of any voltage regulator. Indicates the preset optimization duration. This indicates the startup time of a voltage regulator with a response speed greater than the preset response speed. This indicates the time it takes for a voltage regulator with a response speed greater than the preset response speed to complete one optimization of its initial operating strategy from startup. The startup time of a voltage regulator with a response speed less than or equal to a preset response speed is indicated. Based on a preset first constraint, the initial operating strategy is optimized with the goal of minimizing the maximum voltage deviation between the first and second voltage deviations, resulting in a reference operating strategy.

[0050] Optionally, during the optimization process, a time constraint system based on the dynamic response characteristics of voltage regulation equipment is constructed. Under this constraint, with the goal of minimizing the maximum voltage deviation, priority is given to mobilizing voltage regulation equipment with fast response and high accuracy to eliminate the most severe over-limit voltage, avoiding regulation lag or secondary over-limit caused by delays in mobilizing slow-response voltage regulation equipment. This method can achieve deep coupling between the time dimension and the control objective, making the optimization results a feasible strategy that can be implemented in a real power grid, significantly improving the timeliness, reliability, and safety of voltage recovery, thus providing a solid foundation for the rapid self-healing of the target distribution network under high-disturbance scenarios.

[0051] In an optional embodiment, when the voltage regulation direction includes upward voltage regulation and downward voltage regulation, the reference operating strategy is optimized based on the voltage regulation direction to obtain the target operating strategy. This includes: when the voltage regulation direction is downward voltage regulation, determining a first objective function based on a second lower margin limit, a preset second emergency threshold, and a first lower margin limit, wherein the second lower margin limit represents the lower limit of a second margin range under the reference operating strategy, and the first lower margin limit represents the lower limit of a first margin range under the reference operating strategy; and optimizing the reference operating strategy based on a preset second constraint, with maximizing the function value of the first objective function as the optimization objective, to obtain the target operating strategy, wherein the preset second constraint includes at least: the second lower margin limit is greater than a first specified value. The first specified value is the larger of a preset second emergency threshold and a preset second margin lower limit; or, when the voltage regulation direction is upward, a second objective function is determined based on the second margin upper limit, the preset first emergency threshold, and the first margin upper limit, wherein the second margin upper limit represents the upper limit of the second margin range under the reference operating strategy, and the first margin upper limit represents the upper limit of the first margin range under the reference operating strategy; based on a preset third constraint, the reference operating strategy is optimized with the maximum function value of the second objective function as the optimization objective to obtain the target operating strategy, wherein the preset third constraint includes at least: the second margin upper limit is greater than the second specified value, and the second specified value is the larger of a preset first emergency threshold and a preset second margin upper limit.

[0052] Optionally, assuming the voltage regulation direction includes both upward and downward voltage regulation, further optimization is performed based on the second margin range calculated under the voltage regulation direction and reference operating strategy. This upgrades the control objective from merely eliminating current over-limits to maximizing the reserve capacity of voltage regulation while ensuring the future resilience of the target distribution network. When the voltage regulation direction is downward, a first objective function is constructed with the lower limit of the second margin as its core. Maximizing this objective function ensures that after the target distribution network completes voltage recovery, it prioritizes recovery and exceeds the minimum safe threshold of passive disturbance rejection capability. Active regulation capability is only released when this prerequisite is met. Similarly, when the voltage regulation direction is upward, a second objective function is constructed with the upper limit of the second margin as its core. The construction method of the second objective function is the same as that of the first objective function. These two objective functions ensure that the target distribution network maximizes its available voltage regulation capability. When the passive margin of the target distribution network approaches a preset emergency threshold, a rapid voltage regulation is forcibly activated through an exponential penalty term to prevent secondary voltage over-limits caused by margin depletion. This control method, based on passive margin and extended by active adjustment, can significantly improve the survivability of the target distribution network under continuous disturbances, and ultimately achieve the long-term operational goal of "becoming more stable with adjustment and more resilient with control".

[0053] In an optional embodiment, when the voltage adjustment direction is downward, determining the first objective function based on the second margin lower limit, the preset second emergency threshold, and the first margin lower limit includes: when the voltage adjustment direction is upward, determining the first objective function based on the second margin lower limit, the preset second emergency threshold, and the first margin lower limit in the following manner:

[0054] F = ;

[0055] Where F represents the function value of the first objective function, This represents the lower limit of the second margin. This indicates a preset second emergency threshold. This represents the lower limit of the first margin. This indicates the preset penalty coefficient. This indicates the preset second emergency threshold number for the preset sensitivity adjustment system.

[0056] Optionally, in scenarios where the voltage regulation direction is downward, by constructing an objective function with adaptive penalty characteristics, a qualitative change can be achieved in the regulation strategy from passive compliance to active resilience. This enables the target distribution network to enhance its inherent anti-disturbance stiffness through voltage regulation when facing external disturbances, significantly reducing the probability of subsequent limit exceedances. This provides a smart control strategy with self-healing capabilities for high-fluctuation renewable energy distribution networks.

[0057] Through the above steps S102 to S110, a risk assessment system that coordinates the first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile can be constructed. By combining the predicted information, the voltage regulation direction can be determined, and the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current period can be optimized, thereby accurately obtaining the target operation strategy. This achieves the technical effect of reducing the voltage over-limit frequency of the distribution network and improving the service life of equipment in the distribution network. In turn, it solves the technical problems of high voltage over-limit frequency and short service life of equipment in the distribution network caused by incomplete consideration of factors when the distribution network faces complex operating environment.

[0058] Based on the above embodiments and optional embodiments, the present invention proposes an optional implementation method. Figure 3 This is a flowchart of an optional method for determining the operation strategy of a distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention, such as... Figure 3 As shown, the method includes:

[0059] S1: Obtain the current voltage, forecast information, first margin range, second margin range, and tail risk quantile of the distribution network. Specifically, this includes: real-time acquisition of the current status of each device in the distribution network; synchronous acquisition of the forecast information of the distribution network (photovoltaic output forecast curve and load power forecast curve), and combined with historical operating data and meteorological information, using a trained hybrid drive model to calculate the current first margin range (active downward / upward adjustment margin), second margin range (passive downward / upward disturbance rejection margin), and tail risk quantile in parallel.

[0060] S2: Based on the forecast information, calculate the voltage rise risk index and voltage drop risk index of the distribution network. Specifically, this includes: calculating the voltage rise risk index based on the rising slope of the photovoltaic output forecast and the falling trend of the load forecast; and calculating the voltage drop risk index based on the falling slope of the photovoltaic output forecast and the rising trend of the load forecast. The specific implementation process is the same as in the aforementioned embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0061] S3: Based on the first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile, a composite decision index is obtained. Specifically, this includes: determining a first composite decision index based on the upper limit of the first margin range, the upper limit of the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile. The first composite decision index is used to indicate the upward voltage regulation capacity that the distribution network needs to reserve in advance; determining a second composite decision index based on the lower limit of the first margin range, the lower limit of the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile. The second composite decision index is used to indicate the downward voltage regulation capacity that the distribution network needs to reserve in advance. The specific implementation process is the same as in the aforementioned embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0062] S4: Determine whether the initial operation strategy of the distribution network needs to be optimized. Specifically, this includes comparing the current voltage of each device in the distribution network with the preset voltage safety range and comparing the second margin range of the distribution network with the preset emergency threshold to determine whether the initial operation strategy needs to be optimized. The specific implementation process is the same as the aforementioned embodiment and will not be repeated here.

[0063] S5: If the initial operating strategy needs to be optimized, the voltage adjustment direction is determined based on the voltage rise risk index, voltage fall risk index, and composite decision index. The specific implementation process is the same as the previous embodiment, and will not be repeated here.

[0064] S6: Based on the current voltage of the voltage-abnormal device, optimize the initial operation strategy to obtain a reference operation strategy. Specifically, this includes: identifying the first abnormal device whose voltage is lower than the lower limit of the preset voltage safety range and the second abnormal device whose voltage is higher than the upper limit of the preset voltage safety range, calculating the voltage deviation for each device, constructing an optimization objective with the goal of minimizing the maximum value among all abnormal deviations, and generating a reference operation strategy that takes into account both global voltage balance and rapid recovery, while satisfying the action time constraint (preset first constraint condition). The specific implementation process is the same as in the aforementioned embodiment and will not be repeated here.

[0065] S7: Based on the voltage regulation direction and the second margin range corresponding to the reference operating strategy, the reference operating strategy is optimized to obtain the target operating strategy. Specifically, this includes: in the downward voltage regulation direction, maximizing the active downward regulation margin to construct a first objective function; and in the upward voltage regulation direction, maximizing the active upward regulation capability to construct a second objective function. Based on the two different cases, the corresponding objective functions are optimized and solved to obtain the target operating strategy. The specific implementation process is the same as in the aforementioned embodiments and will not be repeated here.

[0066] This embodiment also provides a distribution network operation strategy determination device, which is used to implement the above embodiments and preferred embodiments; details already described will not be repeated. As used below, the terms "module" and "device" can refer to a combination of software and / or hardware that performs a predetermined function. Although the devices described in the following embodiments are preferably implemented in software, hardware implementation, or a combination of software and hardware, is also possible and contemplated.

[0067] According to an embodiment of the present invention, an apparatus embodiment for implementing the above-described method for determining the operation strategy of a power distribution network is also provided. Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram of the structure of a power distribution network operation strategy determination device according to an embodiment of the present invention, as shown below. Figure 4As shown, the above-mentioned power distribution network operation strategy determination device includes: a first data acquisition module 400, a second data acquisition module 402, an operation strategy optimization confirmation module 404, a voltage regulation direction determination module 406, and a target operation strategy determination module 408, wherein:

[0068] The first data acquisition module 400 is used to acquire the prediction information of the target distribution network and the current voltage of each of the multiple devices in the target distribution network. The prediction information includes the photovoltaic output curve and the load power curve during the prediction period, and the prediction period is a period of predetermined duration after the current period.

[0069] The second data acquisition module 402, connected to the first data acquisition module 400, is used to acquire the first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile value of the target distribution network. The first margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current time period when voltage regulation devices in multiple devices participate in voltage regulation. The second margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current time period corresponding to its ability to resist external interference when voltage regulation devices do not participate in voltage regulation. The tail risk quantile value represents the amount of voltage compensation required by the target distribution network in the current time period to eliminate external interference. The first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile value are acquired under the condition that the current voltage corresponding to each of the multiple devices is within a preset voltage safety range.

[0070] The operation strategy optimization confirmation module 404 is connected to the second data acquisition module 402 and is used to determine whether the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current period needs to be optimized based on the current voltage and second margin range of each of the multiple devices.

[0071] The voltage regulation direction determination module 406 is connected to the operation strategy optimization confirmation module 404. It is used to determine the voltage regulation direction based on the first margin range, the second margin range, the tail risk quantile value and the prediction information when the initial operation strategy needs to be optimized.

[0072] The target operation strategy determination module 408 is connected to the voltage regulation direction determination module 406. It is used to optimize the initial operation strategy based on the current voltage and voltage regulation direction of the voltage abnormal device among multiple devices to obtain the target operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current time period. The voltage abnormal device is the device whose current voltage exceeds the preset voltage safety range.

[0073] It should be noted that the above modules can be implemented by software or hardware. For example, for the latter, it can be implemented in the following ways: the above modules can be located in the same processor; or the above modules can be located in different processors in any combination.

[0074] It should be noted that the first data acquisition module 400, the second data acquisition module 402, the operation strategy optimization confirmation module 404, the voltage adjustment direction determination module 406, and the target operation strategy determination module 408 mentioned above correspond to steps S102 to S110 in the embodiments. The examples and application scenarios implemented by the above modules and corresponding steps are the same, but are not limited to the content disclosed in the above embodiments. It should be noted that the above modules, as part of the device, can run in a computer terminal.

[0075] It should be noted that the optional or preferred implementation methods of this embodiment can be found in the relevant descriptions in the embodiments, and will not be repeated here.

[0076] The aforementioned power distribution network operation strategy determination device may further include a processor and a memory. The first data acquisition module 400, the second data acquisition module 402, the operation strategy optimization confirmation module 404, the voltage regulation direction determination module 406, and the target operation strategy determination module 408 are all stored in the memory as program modules. The processor executes the aforementioned program modules stored in the memory to realize the corresponding functions.

[0077] The processor contains a core that retrieves the corresponding program modules from memory. One or more cores may be configured. Memory may include non-persistent memory in computer-readable media, such as random access memory (RAM) and / or non-volatile memory, such as read-only memory (ROM) or flash RAM. Memory includes at least one memory chip.

[0078] According to an embodiment of this application, an embodiment of a non-volatile storage medium is also provided. Optionally, in this embodiment, the non-volatile storage medium includes a stored program, wherein, when the program runs, it controls the device where the non-volatile storage medium is located to execute any of the above-mentioned power distribution network operation strategy determination methods.

[0079] Optionally, in this embodiment, the non-volatile storage medium may be located in any computer terminal in a group of computer terminals in a computer network, or in any mobile terminal in a group of mobile terminals, and the non-volatile storage medium includes stored programs.

[0080] Optionally, during program execution, the device containing the non-volatile storage medium is controlled to perform the following functions: Obtaining forecast information of the target distribution network and the current voltage of each device in the target distribution network, wherein the forecast information includes the photovoltaic output curve and load power curve for the forecast period, and the forecast period is a predetermined duration after the current period; obtaining the first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile value of the target distribution network, wherein the first margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period when voltage regulation devices in multiple devices participate in voltage regulation; the second margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period corresponding to its ability to resist external interference when voltage regulation devices do not participate in voltage regulation; the tail risk quantile value represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period. The voltage compensation required by the network to eliminate external interference in the current period, the first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile are obtained under the condition that the current voltage of each of the multiple devices is within the preset voltage safety range; based on the current voltage and the second margin range of each of the multiple devices, it is determined whether the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current period needs to be optimized; if the initial operation strategy needs to be optimized, the voltage adjustment direction is determined based on the first margin range, the second margin range, the tail risk quantile, and the prediction information; based on the current voltage and voltage adjustment direction of the voltage-abnormal devices among the multiple devices, the initial operation strategy is optimized to obtain the target operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current period, wherein the voltage-abnormal devices are devices whose current voltage exceeds the preset voltage safety range.

[0081] According to an embodiment of this application, an embodiment of a processor is also provided. Optionally, in this embodiment, the processor is used to run a program, wherein the program executes any of the above-described methods for determining the operation strategy of a power distribution network.

[0082] According to an embodiment of this application, an embodiment of a computer program product is also provided. Optionally, in this embodiment, the computer program product includes a computer program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the above-described method for determining the operation strategy of a power distribution network.

[0083] Optionally, when the aforementioned computer program product is executed on a data processing device, it is suitable to execute an initialization program with the following method steps: obtaining forecast information of the target distribution network and the current voltage corresponding to each of multiple devices in the target distribution network, wherein the forecast information includes photovoltaic output curves and load power curves for the forecast period, and the forecast period is a period of predetermined duration after the current period; obtaining a first margin range, a second margin range, and a tail risk quantile value of the target distribution network, wherein the first margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period when voltage regulation devices among the multiple devices participate in voltage regulation; the second margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period corresponding to its resistance to external interference when voltage regulation devices do not participate in voltage regulation; and the tail risk quantile value... The value represents the amount of voltage compensation required by the target distribution network to eliminate external interference in the current time period. The first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile are obtained under the condition that the current voltage of each of the multiple devices is within the preset voltage safety range. Based on the current voltage and the second margin range of each of the multiple devices, it is determined whether the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current time period needs to be optimized. If the initial operation strategy needs to be optimized, the voltage regulation direction is determined based on the first margin range, the second margin range, the tail risk quantile, and the prediction information. Based on the current voltage and voltage regulation direction of the voltage-abnormal devices among the multiple devices, the initial operation strategy is optimized to obtain the target operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current time period. Among them, the voltage-abnormal devices are the devices whose current voltage exceeds the preset voltage safety range.

[0084] like Figure 5As shown, this embodiment of the invention provides an electronic device 10, which includes a processor, a memory, and a program stored in the memory and executable on the processor. When the processor executes the program, it performs the following steps: acquiring forecast information of a target distribution network and the current voltage corresponding to each of multiple devices in the target distribution network, wherein the forecast information includes photovoltaic output curves and load power curves for a forecast period, and the forecast period is a predetermined duration following the current period; acquiring a first margin range, a second margin range, and a tail risk quantile value of the target distribution network, wherein the first margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current period when voltage regulation devices among the multiple devices participate in voltage regulation; the second margin range represents the resistance of the target distribution network to external interference in the current period when voltage regulation devices do not participate in voltage regulation. Voltage regulation range; the tail risk quantile represents the amount of voltage compensation required by the target distribution network to eliminate external interference in the current period. The first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile are obtained under the condition that the current voltage of each of the multiple devices is within the preset voltage safety range. Based on the current voltage and the second margin range of each of the multiple devices, it is determined whether the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current period needs to be optimized. If the initial operation strategy needs to be optimized, the voltage regulation direction is determined based on the first margin range, the second margin range, the tail risk quantile, and the prediction information. Based on the current voltage and voltage regulation direction of the voltage-abnormal devices among the multiple devices, the initial operation strategy is optimized to obtain the target operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current period. Among them, the voltage-abnormal devices are those whose current voltage exceeds the preset voltage safety range.

[0085] The order of the above embodiments of the present invention is merely for description and does not represent the superiority or inferiority of the embodiments.

[0086] In the above embodiments of the present invention, the descriptions of each embodiment have different focuses. For parts not described in detail in a certain embodiment, please refer to the relevant descriptions of other embodiments.

[0087] In the several embodiments provided in this application, it should be understood that the disclosed technical content can be implemented in other ways. The device embodiments described above are merely illustrative; for example, the division of modules described above can be a logical functional division, and in actual implementation, there may be other division methods. For example, multiple modules or components may be combined or integrated into another system, or some features may be ignored or not executed. Furthermore, the coupling or direct coupling or communication connection shown or discussed may be through some interfaces, or indirect coupling or communication connection between modules, and may be electrical or other forms.

[0088] The modules described above as separate components may or may not be physically separate. Similarly, the components shown as modules may or may not be physical modules; they may be located in one place or distributed across multiple modules. Some or all of the modules can be selected to achieve the purpose of this embodiment, depending on actual needs.

[0089] Furthermore, the functional modules in the various embodiments of the present invention can be integrated into one processing module, or each module can exist physically separately, or two or more modules can be integrated into one module. The integrated modules described above can be implemented in hardware or as software functional modules.

[0090] If the aforementioned integrated modules are implemented as software functional modules and sold or used as independent products, they can be stored in a computer-readable non-volatile storage medium. Based on this understanding, the technical solution of this invention, in essence, or the part that contributes to the prior art, or all or part of the technical solution, can be embodied in the form of a software product. This computer software product is stored in a non-volatile storage medium and includes several instructions to cause a computer device (which may be a personal computer, server, or network device, etc.) to execute all or part of the steps of the methods of the various embodiments of this invention. The aforementioned non-volatile storage medium includes various media capable of storing program code, such as USB flash drives, read-only memory (ROM), random access memory (RAM), portable hard drives, magnetic disks, or optical disks.

[0091] The above are merely preferred embodiments of the present invention. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make various improvements and modifications without departing from the principle of the present invention, and these improvements and modifications should also be considered within the scope of protection of the present invention.

Claims

1. A method for determining the operation strategy of a power distribution network, characterized in that, include: Obtain the forecast information of the target distribution network and the current voltage of each of the multiple devices in the target distribution network. The forecast information includes the photovoltaic output curve and load power curve for the forecast period, and the forecast period is a period of predetermined duration after the current period. The first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile value of the target distribution network are obtained. The first margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current time period when voltage regulation devices among the plurality of devices participate in voltage regulation. The second margin range represents the voltage regulation range of the target distribution network in the current time period corresponding to its ability to resist external interference when voltage regulation devices do not participate in voltage regulation. The tail risk quantile value represents the amount of voltage compensation required by the target distribution network in the current time period to eliminate external interference. The first margin range, the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile value are obtained under the condition that the current voltage corresponding to each of the plurality of devices is within a preset voltage safety range. Based on the current voltage of each of the multiple devices and the second margin range, it is determined whether the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current time period needs to be optimized; If the initial operating strategy needs to be optimized, the voltage regulation direction is determined based on the first margin range, the second margin range, the tail risk quantile value, and the prediction information. Based on the current voltage of the voltage-abnormal device among the multiple devices and the voltage adjustment direction, the initial operation strategy is optimized to obtain the target operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current time period, wherein the voltage-abnormal device is the device whose current voltage exceeds the preset voltage safety range.

2. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The step of determining whether the initial operation strategy of the target distribution network needs to be optimized in the current time period based on the current voltage of each of the plurality of devices and the second margin range includes: If the current voltage of any of the plurality of devices exceeds the preset voltage safety range, or the upper limit of the second margin range is less than or equal to a preset first emergency threshold, or the lower limit of the second margin range is less than or equal to a preset second emergency threshold, then it is determined that the initial operating strategy needs to be optimized; or If the current voltage of each of the multiple devices does not exceed the preset voltage safety range, and the upper limit of the second margin range is greater than the preset first emergency threshold, and the lower limit of the second margin range is greater than the preset second emergency threshold, then it is determined that the initial operation strategy does not need to be optimized.

3. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, When the initial operating strategy needs optimization, determining the voltage regulation direction based on the first margin range, the second margin range, the tail risk quantile, and the prediction information includes: Based on the predicted information, a voltage risk index for the target distribution network is determined, wherein the voltage risk index is used to quantify the risk level of any device among the plurality of devices exceeding the preset voltage safety range during the predicted period; Based on the upper limit of the first margin range, the upper limit of the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile, a first composite decision index is determined, wherein the first composite decision index is used to indicate the upward voltage regulation capacity that the target distribution network needs to reserve in advance when dealing with the voltage reduction risk of the predicted period in the current period. Based on the lower limit of the first margin range, the lower limit of the second margin range, and the tail risk quantile, a second composite decision index is determined, wherein the second composite decision index is used to indicate the downward voltage regulation capacity that the target distribution network needs to reserve in advance when dealing with the voltage rise risk of the predicted period in the current period. The voltage regulation direction is determined based on the first composite decision index, the second composite decision index, and the voltage risk index.

4. The method according to claim 3, characterized in that, When the voltage risk index includes a voltage rise risk index and a voltage fall risk index, determining the voltage adjustment direction based on the first composite decision index, the second composite decision index, and the voltage risk index includes: Based on the photovoltaic output curve, the average upward slope and average downward slope of photovoltaic output of the target distribution network during the forecast period are determined. Based on the load power curve, determine the average upward slope and average downward slope of the load power of the target distribution network during the forecast period; Determine the first weight corresponding to the average upward slope of photovoltaic power output, the second weight corresponding to the average downward slope of load power, the third weight corresponding to the average downward slope of photovoltaic power output, and the fourth weight corresponding to the average upward slope of load power. Based on the average upward slope of photovoltaic output, the average downward slope of load power, the first weight, and the second weight, a weighted summation is performed to obtain the voltage rise risk index. Based on the average decline slope of photovoltaic output, the average rise slope of load power, the third weight, and the fourth weight, a weighted summation is performed to obtain the voltage reduction risk index. The voltage adjustment direction is determined based on the voltage rise risk index, the voltage fall risk index, the first composite decision index, and the second composite decision index.

5. The method according to claim 4, characterized in that, Determining the voltage adjustment direction based on the voltage rise risk index, the voltage fall risk index, the first composite decision index, and the second composite decision index includes: The voltage risk index difference is obtained by performing a difference calculation on the voltage rise risk index and the voltage fall risk index. If the voltage risk index difference is greater than a preset risk difference, the voltage adjustment direction is determined to be downward adjustment based on the second composite decision index; or If the voltage risk index difference is less than the preset risk difference, the voltage adjustment direction is determined to be upward adjustment based on the first composite decision index; or When the voltage risk index difference equals the preset risk difference, and the first composite decision index is greater than the second composite decision index, the voltage adjustment direction is determined to be downward adjustment based on the second composite decision index; or When the voltage risk index difference is equal to the preset risk difference and the first composite decision index is less than the second composite decision index, the voltage adjustment direction is determined to be upward voltage adjustment based on the first composite decision index.

6. The method according to claim 1, characterized in that, When there are multiple devices with abnormal voltage, the initial operation strategy is optimized based on the current voltage of the devices with abnormal voltage and the voltage adjustment direction to obtain the target operation strategy of the target distribution network in the current time period, including: Based on the current voltage of the first abnormal device among multiple abnormal voltage devices, and the lower limit of the preset voltage safety range, a first voltage deviation is obtained, wherein the first abnormal device is a device whose current voltage is less than the lower limit of the preset voltage safety range; Based on the current voltage of the second abnormal device among the plurality of voltage abnormal devices, and the upper limit of the preset voltage safety range, a plurality of second voltage deviations are obtained, wherein the second abnormal device is a device whose current voltage is greater than the upper limit of the preset voltage safety range; The initial operating strategy is optimized with the goal of minimizing the maximum voltage deviation between the first voltage deviation and the second voltage deviation, to obtain a reference operating strategy. Based on the voltage regulation direction, the reference operating strategy is optimized to obtain the target operating strategy.

7. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that, The initial operating strategy is optimized with the goal of minimizing the maximum voltage deviation between the first voltage deviation and the second voltage deviation, resulting in a reference operating strategy, including: The first preset constraint condition is determined as follows: ； ； in, This indicates the time taken to solve for the reference running strategy. This indicates the start-up time of any one of the multiple voltage regulating devices. This represents the time taken for any voltage regulator to complete one optimization of the initial operating strategy from startup, where i represents the index of any voltage regulator. Indicates the preset optimization duration. This indicates the startup time of a voltage regulator with a response speed greater than the preset response speed. This indicates the time taken for a voltage regulator with a response speed greater than the preset response speed to complete one optimization of the initial operating strategy from startup. This indicates the startup time of a voltage regulator with a response speed less than or equal to the preset response speed; Based on the preset first constraint, the initial operating strategy is optimized with the goal of minimizing the maximum voltage deviation between the first voltage deviation and the second voltage deviation, to obtain the reference operating strategy.

8. The method according to claim 6, characterized in that, When the voltage regulation direction includes both upward and downward voltage regulation, optimizing the reference operating strategy based on the voltage regulation direction to obtain the target operating strategy includes: When the voltage adjustment direction is downward, a first objective function is determined based on a second margin lower limit, a preset second emergency threshold, and a first margin lower limit, wherein the second margin lower limit represents the lower limit of the second margin range under the reference operating strategy, and the first margin lower limit represents the lower limit of the first margin range under the reference operating strategy. Based on a preset second constraint, and with the goal of maximizing the function value of the first objective function, the reference operating strategy is optimized to obtain the target operating strategy. The preset second constraint includes at least: a second margin lower limit is greater than a first specified value, where the first specified value is the larger of the preset second emergency threshold and the preset second margin lower limit; or When the voltage adjustment direction is upward voltage adjustment, a second objective function is determined based on the second margin upper limit value, the preset first emergency threshold, and the first margin upper limit value, wherein the second margin upper limit value represents the upper limit value of the second margin range under the reference operating strategy, and the first margin upper limit value represents the upper limit value of the first margin range under the reference operating strategy. Based on a preset third constraint, the reference operating strategy is optimized with the goal of maximizing the function value of the second objective function to obtain the target operating strategy. The preset third constraint includes at least the following: the second margin upper limit is greater than the second specified value, where the second specified value is the larger of the preset first emergency threshold and the preset second margin upper limit.

9. The method according to claim 8, characterized in that, When the voltage adjustment direction is downward, the first objective function is determined based on the second margin lower limit, the preset second emergency threshold, and the first margin lower limit, including: When the voltage adjustment direction is upward, the first objective function is determined based on the second margin lower limit, the preset second emergency threshold, and the first margin lower limit in the following manner: F＝ ； Where F represents the function value of the first objective function, This represents the lower limit of the second margin. This indicates the preset second emergency threshold. This represents the lower limit of the first margin. This indicates the preset penalty coefficient. This indicates the preset sensitivity adjustment coefficient.

10. An electronic device, characterized in that, It includes one or more processors and a memory, the memory being used to store one or more programs, wherein when the one or more programs are executed by the one or more processors, the one or more processors cause the one or more processors to implement the method for determining the operation strategy of the distribution network according to any one of claims 1 to 9.

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