A demand forecasting method and system for a power grid engineering supply chain

Abstract

The present application relates to the technical field of supply chain management, in particular to a power grid engineering supply chain demand prediction method and system, the present application solves the problem: how to reduce the accumulation of materials as much as possible and reduce the transfer cost of materials through accurate demand prediction, in order to solve the above problem, the present application provides a demand prediction method, comprising: obtaining the construction information of all engineering projects in the target area, dividing the engineering projects into associated project groups and independent projects according to the construction information; obtaining the basic demand of each engineering project according to the historical material data, determining the independent demand of the independent project according to the construction information and the basic demand; obtaining the theoretical demand of the associated project group according to the corresponding basic demand of each sub-project in the associated project group, correcting the theoretical demand according to the transferable resources between the sub-projects to obtain the associated demand; obtaining the predicted demand in the target area according to the independent demand and the associated demand.

Description

Technical Field

[0001] This invention relates to the field of supply chain management technology, and more specifically, to a method and system for demand forecasting in power grid engineering supply chains. Background Technology

[0002] During the implementation of power grid engineering projects, material accounting is carried out on a project-by-project basis. In order to cope with emergencies, each project will have a surplus of materials. However, emergencies do not occur frequently, which leads to the surplus of materials in most projects. Although these surplus materials can be reused in other projects, the manpower and resources required to transfer these materials are huge. How to make an overall plan for power grid engineering projects, minimize the accumulation of materials, and reduce the cost of material transfer is one of the problems that urgently need to be solved by those skilled in the art. Summary of the Invention

[0003] The problem this invention addresses is how to minimize material accumulation and reduce material transfer costs through accurate demand forecasting.

[0004] To address the aforementioned problems, embodiments of the present invention provide a demand forecasting method for power grid engineering supply chains. The method includes: acquiring construction information for all engineering projects within a target area; dividing the engineering projects into related project groups and independent projects based on the construction information; obtaining the basic demand for each engineering project based on historical material data; determining the independent demand for independent projects based on the construction information and basic demand; obtaining the theoretical demand for the related project group based on the basic demand corresponding to each sub-project within the related project group; correcting the theoretical demand based on transferable resources between sub-projects to obtain the related demand; obtaining the predicted demand within the target area based on the independent demand and related demand; predicting the probability of fiber optic cable damage during the construction of independent projects and related project groups; determining the additional demand based on the accident probability; and determining the total supply demand for all engineering projects within the target area based on the predicted demand and additional demand.

[0005] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by this solution are as follows: By comprehensively planning power grid engineering projects, it effectively solves the problems of high material accumulation and transfer costs in traditional methods. When determining the demand, it not only considers the basic needs of each project, but more importantly, by correcting the transferable resources between sub-projects within related project groups, it effectively reduces the overall material demand. By systematically identifying project correlations, optimizing the utilization of transferable resources, and combining accident risks, it achieves accurate prediction and overall planning of power grid engineering supply chain demand, reduces redundant material accumulation, and lowers the frequency and cost of material transfer, thereby improving the overall efficiency and economic benefits of the power grid engineering supply chain.

[0006] In one embodiment of the present invention, construction information of all engineering projects within a target area is obtained, and the engineering projects are divided into associated project groups and independent projects based on the construction information. Specifically, this includes: obtaining the construction scope and construction time of each engineering project based on the construction information; recording engineering projects with overlapping construction scopes as associatable projects, and recording overlapping construction scopes as overlapping scopes; obtaining the construction deadline of the associatable projects within the overlapping scope, and determining the transferable resources of the engineering projects at the construction deadline based on the construction information; when the transferable resources can be used by other associatable projects, recording the associatable projects as associated project groups; when the transferable resources cannot be used by other associatable projects, recording the associatable projects and the remaining engineering projects as independent projects.

[0007] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by adopting this solution are as follows: The acquisition of construction scope and time allows for the accurate identification of project groups with resource-sharing potential, separating them from independent projects. This avoids material redundancy caused by independent accounting for each project in the traditional model, effectively reducing unnecessary material procurement and inventory backlog. By identifying transferable resources and facilitating direct transfer between projects, the human and material costs required for material transfer are significantly reduced, improving resource utilization efficiency. Furthermore, it provides more accurate basic data for subsequent demand forecasting, making the forecast results closer to actual needs, thereby optimizing the overall management of the power grid engineering supply chain.

[0008] In one embodiment of the present invention, the basic requirements of each project are obtained based on historical material data, and the independent requirements of each project are determined based on construction information and basic requirements. Specifically, this includes: determining the standard requirements of each project based on construction information; determining the demand fluctuation range corresponding to the standard requirements based on historical material data; and determining the independent requirements within the demand fluctuation range based on the construction environment of the project.

[0009] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by this solution are as follows: Based on the analysis of construction information, standard demand quantities provide a benchmark for subsequent adjustments. By obtaining the deviation between the actual consumption and standard consumption of similar historical projects, a reasonable demand range can be obtained. It fully considers the specific construction environment of the project, enabling the material demand forecasting of independent projects to take into account the inherent characteristics of the project, the uncertainty of historical experience, and the variability of the real-time environment, thereby effectively avoiding material surpluses or shortages caused by inaccurate forecasting.

[0010] In one embodiment of the present invention, the theoretical demand of the associated project group is obtained based on the basic requirements corresponding to each sub-project within the associated project group. The theoretical demand is then corrected based on the transferable resources between the sub-projects to obtain the associated demand. Specifically, this includes: designating the sub-project that outputs transferable resources as a transfer project and the sub-project that receives transferable resources as a receiving project; predicting the amount of transferable resources used by the receiving project based on the construction deadline and construction information; obtaining the expected amount of transferable resources used by the receiving project; determining the overall reserve amount of transferable resources based on the amount of resources used and the expected amount of resources; and correcting the theoretical demand based on the overall reserve amount to obtain the associated demand.

[0011] Compared to existing technologies, the technical benefits of this solution are as follows: By clearly distinguishing sub-projects within a related project group into transfer and receiving projects, a reasonable resource flow framework is constructed. Utilizing construction deadlines and information, the actual usage of transferable resources by the receiving project is predicted, resulting in a more accurate assessment of actual resource consumption and avoiding errors that may arise from static estimations. The overall reserve setting considers not only the actual progress of the receiving project but also future planned needs and potential uncertainties. This allows material demand forecasting to fully utilize transferable resources between projects, reducing unnecessary material reserves and optimizing resource allocation.

[0012] In one embodiment of the present invention, obtaining the estimated usage of transferable resources for the receiving project, and determining the overall reserve of transferable resources based on the completed usage and the estimated usage, specifically includes: determining the construction progress of the receiving project at the construction deadline based on construction information, and determining the estimated usage of transferable resources based on the construction progress; determining a first reserve of the transfer project based on construction information, and determining a second reserve of the receiving project based on the estimated usage; and determining the overall reserve based on the construction deadline, the first reserve, and the second reserve.

[0013] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by this solution are as follows: By dynamically acquiring the construction progress of the receiving project and determining the expected usage accordingly, resource demand forecasting becomes closer to the actual project progress. When determining the overall reserve, the respective reserve requirements of both the transfer and receiving projects are fully considered—namely, the first reserve for the transfer project and the second reserve for the receiving project—and a comprehensive decision is made in conjunction with the construction deadline. This not only ensures the continuity of construction for the transfer project itself but also provides a buffer for the receiving project to cope with uncertainties, thereby avoiding construction shortages due to insufficient reserves and material accumulation and unnecessary transfer costs due to excessive reserves. It effectively solves the problem of inaccurate reserve of transferable resources in related project groups. This significantly improves the resource utilization efficiency and management level of the power grid engineering supply chain.

[0014] In one embodiment of the present invention, determining a first reserve amount for the transfer project based on construction information and a second reserve amount for the receiving project based on the expected usage includes: determining the construction scale of the transfer project and the receiving project based on construction information; determining a first reserve coefficient for the transfer project with respect to transferable resources based on the construction scale, and determining a first reserve amount based on the first reserve coefficient; determining a second reserve coefficient for the receiving project with respect to the expected usage based on the construction scale, and determining a second reserve amount based on the second reserve coefficient.

[0015] Compared with existing technologies, the technical effects achieved by this solution are as follows: Through accurate reserve calculations, combined with the aforementioned theoretical demand correction mechanism for related project groups, it can more accurately reflect the resource allocation potential between projects, thereby optimizing the material allocation of the power grid engineering supply chain. It not only reduces material surplus caused by excessive reserves in individual projects but also avoids the risk of construction interruptions due to insufficient reserves, thus reducing material transfer costs and management complexity. It also improves the accuracy of demand forecasting and resource utilization efficiency in the power grid engineering supply chain.

[0016] In one embodiment of the present invention, the probability of fiber optic damage during the construction of independent projects and related project groups is predicted, and additional demand is determined based on the probability of the accident. Specifically, this includes: determining the construction location and content of the project based on construction information; judging the probability of fiber optic damage based on the construction content and historical construction data; when the probability of fiber optic damage is greater than or equal to a damage threshold, equipping a fiber optic fingerprint recognition device according to the construction scale, and configuring a fiber optic repair device according to the probability of fiber optic damage to obtain additional demand; when the probability of fiber optic damage is less than the damage threshold, determining whether to equip a fiber optic fingerprint recognition device based on the construction location and the distribution location of the fiber optic cables.

[0017] Compared to existing technologies, this technical solution achieves the following advantages: by incorporating the probability of fiber optic cable damage, it effectively addresses the problem of inaccurate forecasting caused by neglecting construction accident risks in traditional demand forecasting. This allows for the determination of additional demand, making material demand forecasting for power grid projects more comprehensive and accurate. This not only avoids material shortages due to accidents, ensuring smooth project progress, but also reduces unnecessary material reserves, lowers material accumulation and transfer costs, thereby improving the overall efficiency and risk response capabilities of the power grid project supply chain.

[0018] In one embodiment of the present invention, this application also provides a demand forecasting system for power grid engineering supply chain. The demand forecasting method described in the above embodiment is applied to the demand forecasting system, which includes: a storage module for storing construction information of all engineering projects; a calculation module for calculating associated demand and independent demand; and a prediction module for predicting the probability of accidents. This demand forecasting system has all the technical features of the above-described demand forecasting method, which will not be described in detail here. Attached Figure Description

[0019] Figure 1 This is one of the flowcharts for the demand forecasting method of the power grid engineering supply chain of the present invention; Figure 2 This is the second flowchart of the power grid engineering supply chain demand forecasting method of the present invention; Figure 3 This is the third flowchart of the power grid engineering supply chain demand forecasting method of the present invention; Figure 4 This is a schematic diagram illustrating the working principle of the fiber optic fingerprint recognition technology for the power grid engineering supply chain of this invention. Figure 5 This is a system schematic diagram of the power grid engineering supply chain demand forecasting system of the present invention; Explanation of reference numerals in the attached figures: 100 - Demand forecasting system; 110 - Storage module; 120 - Calculation module; 130 - Forecasting module. Detailed Implementation

[0020] To make the above-mentioned objects, features and advantages of the present invention more apparent and understandable, specific embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.

[0021] [First Embodiment] See Figures 1 to 4 In one specific embodiment, this application provides a demand forecasting method for a power grid engineering supply chain, the demand forecasting method comprising: S100. Obtain construction information for all engineering projects within the target area, and divide the engineering projects into related project groups and independent projects based on the construction information; S200. Based on historical material data, obtain the basic requirements for each project, and determine the independent requirements for each project based on construction information and basic requirements. S300. Based on the basic requirements of each sub-project within the associated project group, obtain the theoretical requirement of the associated project group. Then, based on the transferable resources between the sub-projects, correct the theoretical requirement to obtain the associated requirement. S400. Obtain the predicted demand within the target area based on independent demand and related demand. S500 predicts the probability of fiber optic damage during construction of independent projects and related project groups, and determines additional demand based on the probability of such incidents. S600. Determine the total supply demand for all engineering projects within the target area based on the predicted demand and additional demand.

[0022] In step S100, the power grid engineering supply chain refers to the entire management system involving the procurement, storage, transportation, distribution, and use of materials during the construction of a power grid engineering project. This ensures the timely supply of materials needed for the project and optimizes resource allocation.

[0023] The target area can be a city or a town. Construction information includes, but is not limited to, the project's geographical location, construction phase, estimated completion time, and main construction content. Based on this construction information, the project is divided into related project groups and independent projects. Preliminary division is made based on the degree of overlap in project type, construction location, or construction time period.

[0024] In step S200, historical material data includes material consumption records, procurement quantities, and loss rates for similar past projects. The average material consumption of similar projects of the same type and scale over the past five years is used as the basic requirement. Combining construction information and the basic requirement, the independent requirement for each individual project is determined. For an individual project, a preliminary estimate can be made based on the construction scale and type, and then fine-tuned according to the specific construction environment, including but not limited to geological conditions and climate characteristics.

[0025] In step S300, the basic requirements of all sub-projects within the associated project group are typically summed. If an associated project group contains three sub-projects, the basic requirements of each of the three sub-projects are summed to obtain the theoretical requirement for the associated project group. Transferable resources refer to materials that can be shared or allocated between various engineering projects.

[0026] For example, if one sub-project in a related project group is expected to have some fiber optic cable left over, while another sub-project happens to need fiber optic cable of the same specification, then the leftover fiber optic cable can be transferred to reduce the overall theoretical demand.

[0027] In step S400, the independent demand of all independent projects and the associated demand of all related project groups are summarized.

[0028] In step S500, the power grid operation and management now directly faces power companies and a large number of power users. The power grid has a large amount of data, complex electrical wiring, and frequent dynamic changes, which further enhances the requirements for the reliability and security of the communication network. Power grid engineering projects are very likely to affect the surrounding fiber optic communication during construction. In the conventional supply and demand configuration, the engineering team is not equipped with the corresponding detection devices. As a result, after the fiber optic cable fails to work properly, the maintenance personnel only go to the construction site to carry out maintenance after receiving the maintenance notice, which greatly affects the normal use of the fiber optic cable.

[0029] Therefore, by reviewing historical accident reports and analyzing factors such as geological conditions or construction difficulty in the construction area, the risk of fiber optic damage for each project or project team is assessed. The accident probability of the project is evaluated, and corresponding additional requirements are allocated accordingly. For projects with a low accident probability, there is no need to configure spare fiber optics and maintenance tools. For projects with a high accident probability, corresponding fiber optic testing tools are configured to monitor the working status of the fiber optics in real time, and the working status of the fiber optics can be reported in a timely manner to avoid repairs only after the fiber optics fail to work properly. For projects with a very high accident probability, testing tools, spare fiber optics, and maintenance tools are directly configured, and fiber optic maintenance personnel are dispatched to the construction team.

[0030] It should be noted that although the installed optical fibers are equipped with built-in detection devices, environmental fluctuations caused by non-natural factors in engineering projects can easily lead to misjudgments by the detection tools. Therefore, setting up new detection tools in engineering projects can improve the accuracy of detection.

[0031] In step S600, the predicted demand and the additional demand are summed to obtain the total amount of materials that need to be purchased and supplied.

[0032] By conducting overall planning for power grid engineering projects, the problems of material accumulation and high transfer costs in traditional methods are effectively solved. When determining the demand, not only are the basic needs of each project considered, but more importantly, by adjusting the transferable resources between sub-projects within related project groups, the overall material demand is effectively reduced. By systematically identifying project correlations, optimizing the utilization of transferable resources, and combining accident risks, accurate prediction and overall planning of power grid engineering supply chain demand are achieved, reducing redundant material accumulation, lowering the frequency and cost of material transfer, thereby improving the overall efficiency and economic benefits of the power grid engineering supply chain.

[0033] [Second Embodiment] In one specific embodiment, construction information for all engineering projects within a target area is obtained, and the engineering projects are divided into related project groups and independent projects based on the construction information, specifically including: S110. Obtain the construction scope and construction time of each project based on the construction information; S120. Projects with overlapping construction scopes are recorded as associatable projects, and overlapping construction scopes are recorded as overlapping scopes. S130. Obtain the construction deadline of the associated projects within the overlapping range, and determine the transferable resources of the project at the construction deadline based on the construction information. S140. When transferable resources can be utilized by other related projects, the related projects are recorded as a related project group; when transferable resources cannot be utilized by other related projects, the related projects and the remaining engineering projects are recorded as independent projects.

[0034] In step S110, the construction scope refers to the geographical area actually occupied by the project, and the construction time is the start and end period of the project. Typically, the geographical coordinate data of the project can be extracted from the project management system and combined with the start date and expected completion date in the project plan as the construction time.

[0035] In step S120, the GIS spatial analysis function is used to overlay the construction scope of all engineering projects. The intersection of the construction scope of any two or more projects is identified as the overlapping scope, and the projects involving these overlapping scopes are marked as associatable projects.

[0036] In step S130, the construction cutoff time refers to the point in time when a project completes a specific construction phase within the overlapping area and may release remaining materials. Transferable resources refer to resources that, at the construction cutoff time, are no longer needed by one project but are still needed by another project and can be obtained within the overlapping area. The construction cutoff time can be derived from the end time of the specific construction phase of the related projects within the overlapping area, extracted from the project schedule. Based on the material list and actual usage of that phase, combined with inventory data, the types and quantities of materials that may remain and be available for transfer at that cutoff time are determined.

[0037] In step S140, by comparing the material demand list of the transferable resources with that of other related projects within the overlapping range, if there is at least one project that needs the resources during the period when the transferable resources are available, these projects are grouped into the same related project group. When the transferable resources cannot be reasonably utilized among the related projects, all projects within the related projects are recorded as independent projects.

[0038] For example, suppose there are three power grid engineering projects in a target area: Project A, Project B, and Project C. First, the system obtains the construction information for these three projects. Project A's construction area is region X, and the construction period is from January to June. Project B's construction area is the boundary between region X and region Y, and the construction period is from March to August. Project C's construction area is region Z, and the construction period is from April to September. Through analysis, it is found that the construction areas of Project A and Project B overlap (part of region X), therefore Project A and Project B are recorded as related projects, with the overlapping area being the intersection of region X. Project C's construction area does not overlap with either A or B, and it is initially determined to be an independent project. Next, the system obtains the construction deadlines for Project A and Project B within the overlapping area. Assume that Project A's construction deadline within the overlapping area is the end of May, at which time Project A will no longer need a batch of specific type of cable. Simultaneously, based on Project B's construction information, the system finds that Project B needs the same type of cable within the same overlapping area during May to July. Since the cables released by Project A at the end of May can be utilized by Project B, Project A and Project B are collectively recorded as a related project group. Project C, however, is designated as an independent project due to its independent construction scope and lack of transferable resources available for other projects. This approach allows for coordinated planning of cable requirements for Projects A and B; surplus cables from Project A can be directly transferred to Project B, reducing material stockpiling for Project A and procurement needs for Project B, ultimately lowering the overall material procurement requirements for both projects.

[0039] Obtaining the scope and duration of construction allows for the accurate identification of project groups with resource-sharing potential, separating them from independent projects. This avoids material redundancy caused by independent accounting for each project in the traditional model, effectively reducing unnecessary material procurement and inventory backlog. By identifying transferable resources and facilitating direct transfer between projects, the human and material costs required for material transfer are significantly reduced, resource utilization efficiency is improved, and more accurate basic data is provided for subsequent demand forecasting, making the forecast results closer to actual needs, thereby optimizing the overall management of the power grid engineering supply chain.

[0040] [Third Embodiment] In one specific embodiment, the basic requirements for each engineering project are obtained based on historical material data, and the independent requirements for each project are determined based on construction information and basic requirements. This specifically includes: S210. Determine the standard demand for an independent project based on construction information, and determine the demand fluctuation range corresponding to the standard demand based on historical material data. S220. Determine the independent demand within the range of demand fluctuations based on the construction environment of the project.

[0041] In steps S210 to S220, a machine learning model is used to predict the material requirements of the current project under standard conditions, based on input features such as historical project type, scale, geographical location, and construction period. The standard requirement is a further refined and quantified material requirement for an independent project, taking into account specific construction information. Construction information includes, but is not limited to, project type, scale, geographical location, construction period, and design specifications. The demand fluctuation range refers to the range of uncertainties that may occur during historical construction, based on the standard requirement. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, weather changes, geological conditions, and adjustments to construction techniques. By analyzing the deviation between the actual material consumption data of similar projects in the same region and the standard requirement, the confidence interval or fluctuation range of the demand is calculated, resulting in the upward and downward fluctuation range of the material demand.

[0042] Independent demand is the final material demand determined for an independent project. It is the result of dynamic adjustment and optimization based on the standard demand and its fluctuation range, combined with the specific construction environment of the current project.

[0043] Based on the analysis of construction information, standard demand quantities serve as a benchmark for subsequent adjustments. By obtaining the deviation between the actual consumption and standard consumption of similar historical projects, a reasonable demand range can be derived. The specific construction environment of each project is fully considered, ensuring that material demand forecasting for independent projects takes into account the inherent characteristics of the project, the uncertainty of historical experience, and the variability of the real-time environment. This effectively avoids material surpluses or shortages caused by inaccurate forecasts.

[0044] [Fourth Embodiment] In a specific embodiment, the theoretical demand of the associated project group is obtained based on the basic requirements corresponding to each sub-project within the associated project group. The theoretical demand is then adjusted based on the transferable resources between the sub-projects to obtain the associated demand, specifically including: S310. The sub-item that outputs transferable resources is denoted as the transfer item, and the sub-item that receives transferable resources is denoted as the receiving item. S320. Based on the construction deadline and construction information, predict the amount of transferable resources used in the receiving project to be completed. S330. Obtain the estimated usage of transferable resources for the receiving project, and determine the overall reserve of transferable resources based on the usage completed and the estimated usage. S340. Adjust the theoretical demand based on the overall reserve to obtain the related demand.

[0045] In step S310, a transferable project refers to an engineering project within the associated project group that generates surplus transferable resources during construction, and these resources can be provided to other sub-projects. A receiving project refers to an engineering project within the associated project group that requires the use of transferable resources during subsequent construction.

[0046] In step S320, the construction deadline refers to the time point at which the transferring project provides transferable resources to the receiving project. Construction information includes, but is not limited to, project progress reports, material consumption records, construction logs, and site survey data, which reflect the actual progress of the project and resource usage. The amount of transferable resources actually consumed or used by the receiving project at a specific construction deadline refers to the quantity of transferable resources actually consumed or used by the receiving project. This can be estimated by analyzing historical project data, combining it with the current project progress, and using project management software for simulation, or it can be obtained through a real-time on-site data acquisition system.

[0047] In step S330, the projected usage refers to the amount of transferable resources the receiving project will require over a future period. The overall reserve refers to the amount of resources that need to be reserved in addition to the projected usage to cope with potential deviations or unforeseen circumstances during construction, when the receiving project uses transferable resources.

[0048] In step S340, the theoretical demand is obtained by simply summing up or preliminarily estimating the basic demand of each sub-project, without fully considering the possibility of resource sharing and transfer. Therefore, the overall reserve needs to be taken into account, and the theoretical demand needs to be adjusted.

[0049] For example, suppose there is a related project team in a power grid engineering supply chain, where Project A is a transfer project and Project B is a receiving project. Project A will generate a batch of surplus cables during construction, and Project B will need the same type of cables in subsequent construction phases. First, based on Project A's construction progress report and Project B's construction plan, determine the construction deadline for Project A to supply cables to Project B. Next, using Project B's real-time material consumption records and data from the project management system, predict how much cable Project B will have used by the construction deadline, i.e., the usage completion quantity. Simultaneously, based on Project B's detailed construction drawings and material list, obtain the projected usage quantity of this type of cable in future construction phases. The projected usage quantity can be determined by the cable demand for the next three months in Project B's construction plan. Then, compare the predicted usage completion quantity with the obtained projected usage quantity, and combine this with a certain safety stock factor to calculate the overall reserve quantity that Project B needs to reserve for this batch of transferable cables. If the projected usage is significantly greater than the actual usage, the overall reserve may need to cover most of the projected usage; conversely, if the actual usage is close to the projected usage, the overall reserve can be reduced accordingly. Finally, based on this calculated overall reserve, the original theoretical cable requirements for Project B are revised. If the overall reserve can meet some or all of Project B's needs, the theoretical requirements for Project B will be reduced accordingly.

[0050] By clearly distinguishing sub-projects within related project groups into transfer projects and receiving projects, a reasonable resource flow framework was constructed. Utilizing construction deadlines and information, the actual amount of transferable resources used in receiving projects was predicted. This made the assessment of actual resource consumption more accurate, avoiding errors that might arise from static estimations. The overall reserve setting not only considered the actual progress of receiving projects but also took into account future planned needs and potential uncertainties. This enabled material demand forecasting to fully utilize transferable resources between projects, reducing unnecessary material reserves and optimizing resource allocation.

[0051] [Fifth Embodiment] In one specific embodiment, the estimated usage of transferable resources by the receiving project is obtained, and the overall reserved amount of transferable resources is determined based on the actual usage and the estimated usage, specifically including: S331. Determine the construction progress of the receiving project at the construction deadline based on the construction information, and determine the expected usage of transferable resources based on the construction progress. S332. Determine the first reserve quantity for the transferred project based on the construction information, and determine the second reserve quantity for the receiving project based on the expected usage. S333. Determine the overall reserve amount based on the construction deadline, the first reserve amount, and the second reserve amount.

[0052] In steps S331 to S333, during the construction process, the percentage of completion of construction tasks and the achievement of critical path nodes are obtained to determine the expected consumption of construction progress, thereby predicting the amount of transferable resources used by the receiving project.

[0053] It should be noted that after the establishment of the associated project team, the reserve model for transferable resources for the transferring and receiving projects will change. Instead of reserving based on the overall project volume, the reserves will be made based on the construction deadline, which is the point in time for transferring materials.

[0054] During the execution of each project, the carrying quantity of each type of material is appropriately increased based on basic needs to prevent disruptions in case of unforeseen circumstances. For relocation projects, the carrying quantity of transferable resources can be increased based on the construction deadline relative to the overall construction progress of the receiving project. This increased carrying capacity not only better addresses unforeseen circumstances but also ensures that excess resources can be smoothly transferred to the receiving project without accumulation. For the receiving project, the method of carrying transferable resources before receiving them is consistent with its own independent project carrying method, avoiding unforeseen situations before receiving the resources. The carrying method after receiving the resources is pre-planned based on the construction deadline (the time point for material transfer) and the quantity of transferable resources.

[0055] For example, in a power grid engineering supply chain, there is a related project group, where Project A is a transfer project and Project B is a receiving project, involving a specific type of optical cable as the transferable resource. First, the system continuously acquires construction information for Project B, updating the completion status of Project B's construction tasks in real time through project management. When Project B's construction deadline T is detected, the system calculates Project B's construction progress at time T based on the current construction plan and actual completion status from the current point in time to T.

[0056] Project B plans to complete 80% of the fiber optic cable laying by time T, and currently 60% is complete. Based on this progress, combined with Project B's fiber optic cable laying standards and historical data, the projected usage of fiber optic cable for the remaining time will be predicted. Next, based on Project A's construction information, the initial reserve quantity that Project A will need to retain after the fiber optic cable transfer will be calculated.

[0057] Based on the construction environment, Project A requires an additional 100 meters of fiber optic cable to cope with emergencies or minor rework. Meanwhile, based on the projected fiber optic cable usage for Project B, an additional 500 meters of cable is expected. Combining this with Project B's historical construction risk coefficient of 0.15, a second reserve of 75 meters is calculated for Project B.

[0058] If Project A transfers 300 meters of optical cable to Project B, then Project B only needs to reserve an additional 275 meters of optical cable. In this case, the overall reserve is reduced by 300 meters compared to the theoretical requirement. If Project B subsequently encounters unforeseen circumstances that result in a shortage of the specific type of optical cable, compensation can be made according to the resource compensation method for independent projects.

[0059] By dynamically acquiring the construction progress of receiving projects and determining the expected usage accordingly, resource demand forecasts become more closely aligned with actual project progress. When determining the overall reserve, the respective reserve requirements of both the transfer and receiving projects are fully considered—namely, the primary reserve for the transfer projects and the secondary reserve for the receiving projects—and a comprehensive decision is made in conjunction with the construction deadlines. This not only ensures the continuity of construction for the transfer projects themselves but also provides a buffer for the receiving projects to cope with uncertainties. This avoids construction shortages due to insufficient reserves, as well as material stockpiling and unnecessary transfer costs due to excessive reserves, effectively solving the problem of inaccurate reserve of transferable resources in related project groups. It significantly improves the resource utilization efficiency and management level of the power grid engineering supply chain.

[0060] [Sixth Embodiment] In one specific embodiment, a first reserve quantity for the transferred project is determined based on construction information, and a second reserve quantity for the receiving project is determined based on the expected usage, specifically including: S332a. Determine the construction scale of the transferred and receiving projects based on the construction information; S332b. Determine the first reserve coefficient for transferable resources for the transfer project based on the construction scale, and determine the first reserve quantity based on the first reserve coefficient; S332c. Determine the second reserve coefficient for the expected usage of the receiving project based on the construction scale, and determine the second reserve quantity based on the second reserve coefficient.

[0061] In step S332a, the construction scale is determined by the construction content of historical engineering projects. It can be measured by quantitative indicators such as project contract amount, bill of quantities, project duration, and manpower input, or by classifying projects by type, voltage level, geographical region, etc., and setting corresponding scale levels for different categories.

[0062] In steps S332b to S332c, after determining the first reserve quantity for the transfer project and the second reserve quantity for the receiving project, the construction information of the transfer project and the receiving project is extracted from the project management database. For a transmission line project, its construction scale can be quantified as the line length, the number of towers, the type and quantity of conductors. For a substation project, its construction scale can be quantified as the transformer capacity, the number of switchgear, and the land area.

[0063] For example, suppose the transfer project is a nearly completed 110kV transmission line project with a construction scale of 50 kilometers, and it is expected that there will be surplus conductors of a specific type as transferable resources. The receiving project is a newly built 35kV substation project with a construction scale of 2000 square meters, and it is expected to require conductors of that type. When determining the first reserve factor, based on historical data analysis, for 110kV transmission line projects, the first reserve factor per kilometer of line is 0.05, that is, reserving 5% of the conductors. Therefore, the first reserve amount for the transfer project can be calculated by multiplying the 50-kilometer construction scale by a factor of 0.05. When determining the second reserve factor, historical data analysis can be used. For a 35kV substation project, a total of 30 kilometers of conductor is required. The second reserve factor is 0.03, which means reserving 3% of the conductor. When reserving this 3% of the conductor, adjustments need to be made according to the construction deadline of the transmission line project. If the construction progress of the substation project is 50% when the transferable resources are transferred, then the first 15 kilometers of conductor need to be reserved according to the second reserve factor, and the last 15 kilometers of conductor only need to be prepared according to the length. The reserved part can be supplemented by transferable resources.

[0064] By accurately calculating reserve quantities and combining this with the aforementioned theoretical demand correction mechanism for related project groups, the resource allocation potential between projects can be reflected more accurately, thereby optimizing the material allocation of the power grid engineering supply chain. This not only reduces material surplus caused by excessive reserves in individual projects but also avoids the risk of construction interruptions due to insufficient reserves, thus reducing material transfer costs and management complexity. It also improves the accuracy of demand forecasting and resource utilization efficiency in the power grid engineering supply chain.

[0065] [Seventh Embodiment] In one specific embodiment, the probability of fiber optic damage caused by independent projects and related project groups during construction is predicted, and additional demand is determined based on the probability of such incidents, specifically including: S510. Determine the construction location and content of the project based on the construction information, and judge the probability of fiber optic damage based on the construction content and historical construction data. S520. When the probability of fiber optic damage is greater than or equal to the damage threshold, fiber optic fingerprint recognition devices shall be equipped according to the construction scale, and repair devices for fiber optic repair shall be configured according to the probability of fiber optic damage to obtain additional demand. S530. When the probability of fiber optic damage is less than the damage threshold, determine whether to equip a fiber optic fingerprint recognition device based on the construction location and fiber optic distribution location.

[0066] With the development of fiber optic technology, more and more construction areas will affect the normal operation of fiber optics. Currently, when waiting for professionals to come to the site for maintenance, the location of the fault can only be determined after the professionals arrive, which greatly reduces maintenance efficiency. However, equipping the construction area with maintenance equipment can determine the location of the fault in a timely manner after it occurs, allowing professionals to start maintenance work directly upon arrival. However, the additional material requirements will also lead to inaccurate demand forecasting and material accumulation problems.

[0067] In step S510, historical accident data is used in conjunction with a machine learning model to analyze factors such as project type, construction location, geological conditions, and construction equipment. By analyzing the historical accident database, fiber optic damage events are correlated with specific construction activities, and the fiber optic damage rate under different construction activities is statistically analyzed. A statistical model is then used to predict the probability of fiber optic damage under specific construction scenarios by training on historical data.

[0068] It should be noted that the construction content includes, but is not limited to, earthwork excavation, pile foundation construction, and road milling. Historical data includes, but is not limited to, construction content, geographical location, soil type, weather conditions, equipment used, and fiber optic type.

[0069] In steps S520 to S530, monitoring equipment is proactively deployed in high-risk scenarios. For large or critical projects, multiple or more advanced fiber optic fingerprint recognition devices can be equipped to achieve comprehensive real-time monitoring of the construction area. The fiber optic fingerprint recognition device can detect external disturbances in a timely manner by monitoring changes in Rayleigh scattering signals in the fiber, thereby providing early warning or locating fiber damage.

[0070] Ensure rapid fault location in the event of an incident. For high-probability areas, a full set of fiber optic fusion splicing equipment, testing instruments, and spare fibers can be pre-configured, and professional maintenance personnel can be arranged to be on standby. For medium-probability areas, basic maintenance tools and a small amount of spare materials can be configured.

[0071] When the probability of fiber optic cable damage is below a damage threshold, in order to avoid resource waste in low-risk scenarios while still addressing specific risks, this can be achieved by overlaying the geographical location information of the construction project with the geographical distribution map of the existing fiber optic network. Even if the overall probability of damage is low, if the construction area happens to be near important fiber optic trunk lines, communication hubs, or traverses dense fiber optic duct areas, it may still be necessary to equip it with fiber optic fingerprinting devices for focused monitoring.

[0072] The working principle of fiber optic fingerprint recognition technology is as follows: Narrow-linewidth coherent light is used as the detection light. A photodetector receives the signals from the interference of all backscattered Rayleigh scattering signals over a wide range of the incident light. The narrow-linewidth detection light is split into two paths by a first coupler. One path is modulated by a pulse modulator to become the incident light pulse. Before passing through the pulse modulator, it undergoes polarization control by a first polarization controller and is then amplified by an erbium-doped fiber amplifier (EDFA). The other path serves as a local reference signal. The local reference signal first undergoes polarization control by a second polarization controller, then frequency shifts by an acousto-optic frequency shifter, and finally beats the backscattered Rayleigh signal with the second coupler to obtain a beat frequency signal. The beat frequency signal is converted into an electrical signal by the photodetector, then converted into a digital signal by data acquisition. Disturbance information is extracted through signal analysis and processing. Assuming the backscattered Rayleigh signal received at time t is: .

[0073] in, This represents the backscattered Rayleigh light field after the disturbance. The amplitude of the coherent backscattered Rayleigh signal. The phase of the coherent backscattered Rayleigh signal. denoted as the frequency of the incident light pulse, and j is the imaginary unit.

[0074] The backscattered Rayleigh signal and the local reference signal are coupled together by a second coupler to generate a beat frequency signal, which is then passed through a photodetector to obtain the final electrical signal. . in, The waveform of the original electrical signal contains information about external vibrations. The amplitude of the original electrical signal. The frequency shift is generated by the acousto-optic frequency shifter. The phase difference between the local reference signal and the Rayleigh scattering signal. express The relative polarization angle between them. If at time... When an optical fiber is subjected to external disturbance, the received backscattered Rayleigh signal can be expressed as: . in, The backscattered Rayleigh light field modulated by external disturbances. This represents the phase change of the backscattered Rayleigh signal caused by the disturbance. The local reference signal remains unchanged, and the electrical signal obtained by the photodetector is: . in, The interference signal current contains disturbance information. The phase of the original electrical signal is represented by the initial phase. The phase change of the Rayleigh scattering signal caused by the perturbation ultimately leads to the amplitude change. Changes occur, thus Change. Based on the The processing can obtain information such as the frequency and location of the disturbance. This is the total phase difference after correction for external disturbances.

[0075] By incorporating the probability of fiber optic cable damage into the forecast, the problem of inaccurate predictions caused by neglecting construction accident risks in traditional demand forecasting is effectively solved. This allows for the determination of additional demand, making material demand forecasting for power grid projects more comprehensive and accurate. This not only avoids material shortages due to accidents, ensuring smooth project progress, but also reduces unnecessary material reserves, lowers material accumulation and transfer costs, thereby improving the overall efficiency and risk response capabilities of the power grid project supply chain.

[0076] [Eighth Embodiment] See Figure 5 In one specific embodiment, this application also provides a demand forecasting system 100 for a power grid engineering supply chain. The demand forecasting method described in the above embodiment is applied to the demand forecasting system 100. The demand forecasting system 100 includes: a storage module 110 for storing construction information of all engineering projects; a calculation module 120 for calculating associated demand and independent demand; and a prediction module 130 for predicting the probability of accidents. The demand forecasting system 100 has all the technical features of the above-described demand forecasting method, which will not be described in detail here.

[0077] While the present invention has been disclosed above, it is not limited thereto. Any person skilled in the art can make various modifications and alterations without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention; therefore, the scope of protection of the present invention should be determined by the scope defined in the claims.

Claims

1. A demand forecasting method for a power grid engineering supply chain, characterized in that, The demand forecasting method includes: Obtain construction information for all engineering projects within the target area, and based on the construction information, obtain the construction scope and construction time for each engineering project; Projects whose construction scope overlaps with each other are recorded as associatable projects, and overlapping construction scopes are recorded as overlapping scopes. Obtain the construction deadline of the associated project within the overlapping range, and determine the transferable resources of the project at the construction deadline based on the construction information; When the transferable resource can be utilized by other associable projects, the associable project is recorded as an associated project group; When the transferable resource cannot be used by other related projects, the related project and the remaining engineering projects are recorded as independent projects. The basic requirements for each project are obtained based on historical material data, and the independent requirements for each project are determined based on the construction information and the basic requirements. The theoretical demand of the associated project group is obtained based on the basic demand corresponding to each sub-project within the associated project group. The theoretical demand is then corrected based on the transferable resources between the sub-projects to obtain the associated demand. The predicted demand within the target area is obtained based on the independent demand and the associated demand. Predict the probability of fiber optic cable damage during construction of the independent project and the associated project group, and determine the additional demand based on the probability of such incidents; The total supply demand for all the projects in the target area is determined based on the predicted demand and the additional demand.

2. The demand forecasting method according to claim 1, characterized in that, The process of obtaining the basic requirements for each project based on historical material data, and determining the independent requirements for each project based on the construction information and the basic requirements, specifically includes: The standard demand for the independent project is determined based on the construction information, and the demand fluctuation range corresponding to the standard demand is determined based on the historical material data. The independent demand is determined based on the construction environment of the project within the range of demand fluctuations.

3. The demand forecasting method according to claim 2, characterized in that, The process of obtaining the theoretical demand for the associated project group based on the basic demand corresponding to each sub-project within the associated project group, and then adjusting the theoretical demand based on the transferable resources between the sub-projects to obtain the associated demand, specifically includes: The sub-item that outputs the transferable resource is denoted as the transfer item, and the sub-item that receives the transferable resource is denoted as the receiving item; Based on the construction deadline and the construction information, predict the amount of transferable resources used by the receiving project. Obtain the estimated usage of the transferable resources by the receiving project, and determine the overall reserved amount of the transferable resources based on the amount of usage completed and the estimated usage; The theoretical demand is adjusted based on the overall reserve to obtain the associated demand.

4. The demand forecasting method according to claim 3, characterized in that, The step of obtaining the estimated usage of the transferable resources by the receiving project, and determining the overall reserve of the transferable resources based on the completed usage and the estimated usage, specifically includes: The construction progress of the receiving project at the construction deadline is determined based on the construction information, and the expected usage of the transferable resources is determined based on the construction progress. The first reserve quantity for the transferred project is determined based on the construction information, and the second reserve quantity for the receiving project is determined based on the expected usage. The overall reserve amount is determined based on the construction deadline, the first reserve amount, and the second reserve amount.

5. The demand forecasting method according to claim 4, characterized in that, The step of determining the first reserve quantity for the transferred project based on the construction information, and determining the second reserve quantity for the receiving project based on the expected usage, specifically includes: The construction scale of the transfer project and the receiving project is determined based on the construction information; The first reservation coefficient for the transferable resources is determined based on the construction scale, and the first reservation amount is determined based on the first reservation coefficient. The second reserve amount is determined based on the construction scale and the expected usage of the received project.

6. The demand forecasting method according to claim 5, characterized in that, The prediction of the probability of fiber optic damage during construction of the independent project and the associated project group, and the determination of additional demand based on the probability of such incidents, specifically includes: The construction location and content of the project are determined based on the construction information, and the probability of fiber optic damage is determined based on the construction content and historical construction data. When the probability of damage to the optical fiber is greater than or equal to the damage threshold, an optical fiber fingerprint recognition device is equipped according to the construction scale, and a repair device for repairing the optical fiber is configured according to the probability of damage to the optical fiber, so as to obtain the additional demand. When the probability of damage to the optical fiber is less than the damage threshold, it is determined whether the optical fiber fingerprint recognition device should be installed based on the construction location and the distribution location of the optical fiber.

7. A demand forecasting system for a power grid engineering supply chain, characterized in that, The demand forecasting method as described in any one of claims 1 to 6 is applied to the demand forecasting system, the demand forecasting system comprising: A storage module is used to store the construction information of all the engineering projects; The calculation module is used to calculate the associated demand and the independent demand; A prediction module, which is used to predict the probability of the accident.

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